You won't hear this on MSLSD

Oldbear83 said:

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KaiBear said:

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nein51 said:

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boognish_bear said:

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TARIFFS: China is in free fall. Factories closing. CCP official ‘disappearing’. empty cargo ships loitering around ports. Millions out of work. Time is running out. pic.twitter.com/K0wbUvIMzK

— @amuse (@amuse) May 2, 2025

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I've been saying they need us just as much as we need them. There is no method to replace the U.S. market. It doesn't exist.

---

Agreed

But communists don't face midterm elections.
And our electorate has the patience of a rattlesnake.

---

China has problems the media never talks about.

Big ones.

---

Hope you are correct and China folds.

KaiBear said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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KaiBear said:

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nein51 said:

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boognish_bear said:

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TARIFFS: China is in free fall. Factories closing. CCP official ‘disappearing’. empty cargo ships loitering around ports. Millions out of work. Time is running out. pic.twitter.com/K0wbUvIMzK

— @amuse (@amuse) May 2, 2025

---

I've been saying they need us just as much as we need them. There is no method to replace the U.S. market. It doesn't exist.

---

Agreed

But communists don't face midterm elections.
And our electorate has the patience of a rattlesnake.

---

China has problems the media never talks about.

Big ones.

---

Hope you are correct and China folds.

---

Like so many things this is a contest with many dimensions and levels.

FLBear5630 said:

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whiterock said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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whiterock said:

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Assassin said:

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boognish_bear said:

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🇺🇸 US tariff revenue rises 60% to $15 billion in April, a new all-time high. pic.twitter.com/PRQBQOoQ0W

— Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) April 24, 2025

---

If Trump can find a way to fully or partially eliminate personal income tax, that would be huge

---

that is the explicit policy - to raise more money from tariffs and less from income taxes.

---

But, that only works if imports remain at current levels. It is a balance. Look at the Deloitte analysis for next five years. Imports are reducing. Government spending as part of economy, reducing. Real business investing, reducing. Consumer spending, reducing. Real GDP, reducing. Unemployment, increasing. CPI, down .5%. (That is a positive).

Does this look like a scenario for less taxes?



Source is Deloitte, this is a reputable source. These guys are not clowns or Mother Jones. This is baseline, there is also a up scenario and down scenario. I thought baseline was best for conversation, keep it bias free (as possible).

---

read that article again. note the word "scenario." (meaning a projection, not current developments).

The economy seems to be slowing slowing, which would be expected. You can't stop the kind of deficit spending we've engaged in the last 5 years and NOT have the economy slow. Trump has already addressed the investment portion. We are now approaching $10T in announced foreign investments. Sure, not all of that will happen in 2025 or even 2026, but we don't need all of it to happen in that timeframe, just enough to offset the reduction in government spending (approx $1T). Should not be a problem, given that the amount we need to hit the books over the next 18 months is a very small percentage of the total.

Consumer spending is not, in fact, declining.....yet (although it likely will do so soon).
https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/consumer-packaged-goods/our-insights/the-state-of-the-us-consumer
Unemployment is driven by new entrants, not job losses.
https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/04/economy/us-jobs-report-march-2025/index.html
Fed has reduced growth projections, but is still projecting economic expansion for 2025-2027.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20250319.htm

Reduction in CPI is actually a sign of a slowing economy. Lower gas prices? a slowing economy uses less gas. and so on and so on. You will see that same dynamic on trade.....trade deficit will narrow as an economy slows. To the extent a trade deficit is structural (and ours explicitly is), a yawning trade deficit is a leading indicator of coming expansion (businesses stocking up inventory to meet growing demand).

Again.....avoid the temptation to let microeconomic challenges cloud the view of the macroeconomic situation. Trump is making macroeconomic changes. He's changing the landscape, the laws of gravity that dictate the way things will flow. By definition, existing supply chains cannot cope with those changes. THAT IS THE POINT! 70+ years ago, sovereign power chose to engage in globalism as a response to a rising USSR. Because that response was effective, it is no longer useful = it achieved its objective, ergo its costs (trade deficits) are no longer offset by advantages. So sovereign power (belatedly) defined new objectives - decouple from China and bring a greater percentage of supply chains back home.

note that Apple has announced it will move all of its US-oriented iPhone production out of China by 2026, relocating most of it to India. That, my friend, is tariffs at work. Trade policy always serves national security policy. Trump created macroeconomic conditions that will drain China of most of its US-oriented production over the next decade. SOME of that production will come home.
#winning

---

Of course it is a forecast, anything other than the past is a forecast. Our whole financial system is based on forecasts and then comparing to actuals.

You do realize that the Macro is made up of he Micro. You talk about "Macro" economics like it is separate from Microeconomics. Micro are the metrics you use to measure Macro policy successes. One does not exist without the other.
No. Macroecomic policy is designed to force microeconomic changes. Critics always always always cite a microeconomic problem as evidence the policy is counterproductive, when in reality, the micro problem is a sign the macro policy is working....it is forcing corporations to change the way they do business (which is precisely the intent of the macro policy change). Tariffs forced Apple out of China. That. is. a. win.

Same with Company "announcements". Let's see how much is actually built and how much comes back to the US.
dozens of entities announce +$8T in investments and that is a sham? They all did it just to help Trump out? All of those announcements were explicitly for US jobs, too.....

You also seem to be changing the metrics of what "winning" is. Now it is "some"?
No, I'm pointing out the strawman critics are waving around = all vs some. Critics are stating that the policy is doomed to fail since it is impossible for all supply chains to come home. "All" is not the objective. "More" is a win.

---

The goal is not to fix globalism. The goal is to break it. Trump has. And we will be better off because of it. It is simply insane to continue economic cooperation with a country that seeks to harm our interests.

Trade policy always serves national security policy.

KaiBear said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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KaiBear said:

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nein51 said:

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boognish_bear said:

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TARIFFS: China is in free fall. Factories closing. CCP official ‘disappearing’. empty cargo ships loitering around ports. Millions out of work. Time is running out. pic.twitter.com/K0wbUvIMzK

— @amuse (@amuse) May 2, 2025

---

I've been saying they need us just as much as we need them. There is no method to replace the U.S. market. It doesn't exist.

---

Agreed

But communists don't face midterm elections.
And our electorate has the patience of a rattlesnake.

---

China has problems the media never talks about.

Big ones.

---

Hope you are correct and China folds.

---

Both sides are going to fold.

LIB,MR BEARS said:

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NEW: China Caves On 125% Tariff For Major U.S. Export.https://t.co/7qJAUFhguz#DiamondandSilk

— Diamond and Silk® (@DiamondandSilk) April 30, 2025

---

TRUMP BLINKED AGAIN!!!!!

(the neverTrumpers will say)

FLBear5630 said:

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ScottS said:

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LIB,MR BEARS said:

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NEW: China Caves On 125% Tariff For Major U.S. Export.https://t.co/7qJAUFhguz#DiamondandSilk

— Diamond and Silk® (@DiamondandSilk) April 30, 2025

---

We've seen alot of panic from the TDS side in the short run. But, this is about the long game. If China is already caving, I think this is great news. I think the long game will show evening the tariffs between us and other countries.

---

Actually, the concern is opposite.

Near Term - less than 6 months, concern because they are destroying a lot of lives for speed and extremism. No one disagrees that changes are needed, they are always needed as conditions change and (in this case the reaction to bad decisions by the Biden and the first Trump Admin). But to do it this way, has hurt a lot of people that have done nothing but their jobs.
No lives have been destroyed. Not one.

Short term - 6 months to a year, no concern. They will all "cave" because they are heavily invested in the US market.

Long term - over 1 year, real economic concern. They may cave now, but they are working on NOT being in this position again. We may get some "diplomatic lip service", but the EU, China and even our allies on Asia are looking at other markets and diversification. What will the long-term picture look like when they develop other options. Trump may hold all the cards on this hand, but the game is more than one hand.
But, wait. If they caved because they are heavily invested, how do they improve themselves by planning to exit over the long term? To where?

But, hey this will be a MAGA dream isolationism, and little say beyond our shores.

---

LOL. What "other markets" can replace the USA?

They will not seek to isolate us, because they can't. We are not just a quarter of world GDP, we are the best quarter of world GDP. They would rather have half of the export market they have now than none, and they will make concessions to keep it (for fear others will get it).

We cannot continue to let our trade deficit grow. It is unsustainable. Our trade partners know that. And THAT'S why they will make the concessions. It's the old adage - "hogs get fat; pigs get slaughtered" jn real life. They will give up some trade surplus in order to protect the value of all those USD they are holding in their portfolios.

whiterock said:

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LIB,MR BEARS said:

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NEW: China Caves On 125% Tariff For Major U.S. Export.https://t.co/7qJAUFhguz#DiamondandSilk

— Diamond and Silk® (@DiamondandSilk) April 30, 2025

---

TRUMP BLINKED AGAIN!!!!!

(the neverTrumpers will say)

---

I love it when he blinks. Who coined that phrase here, they came up with a great one!

boognish_bear said:

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BREAKING: China is lifting sanctions imposed against European parliament members.

In yet another sign, China is clearly attempting to build relations with Europe as the trade war escalates.

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 30, 2025

---

This is primarily a negotiating strategy....to show tougness, resolve....to make US negotiators fear they are losing leverage. It will not work, because the math isn't there. The EU cannot buy all that stuff China is making for the US market. Reality is, China is facing far more domestic pressure than we are.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/global-trends/china-sees-surge-in-worker-protests-over-unpaid-wages-factory-closures-and-us-tariffs/articleshow/120796368.cms

ATL Bear said:

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whiterock said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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whiterock said:

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Assassin said:

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boognish_bear said:

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🇺🇸 US tariff revenue rises 60% to $15 billion in April, a new all-time high. pic.twitter.com/PRQBQOoQ0W

— Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) April 24, 2025

---

If Trump can find a way to fully or partially eliminate personal income tax, that would be huge

---

that is the explicit policy - to raise more money from tariffs and less from income taxes.

---

But, that only works if imports remain at current levels. It is a balance. Look at the Deloitte analysis for next five years. Imports are reducing. Government spending as part of economy, reducing. Real business investing, reducing. Consumer spending, reducing. Real GDP, reducing. Unemployment, increasing. CPI, down .5%. (That is a positive).

Does this look like a scenario for less taxes?



Source is Deloitte, this is a reputable source. These guys are not clowns or Mother Jones. This is baseline, there is also a up scenario and down scenario. I thought baseline was best for conversation, keep it bias free (as possible).

---

read that article again. note the word "scenario." (meaning a projection, not current developments).

The economy seems to be slowing slowing, which would be expected. You can't stop the kind of deficit spending we've engaged in the last 5 years and NOT have the economy slow. Trump has already addressed the investment portion. We are now approaching $10T in announced foreign investments. Sure, not all of that will happen in 2025 or even 2026, but we don't need all of it to happen in that timeframe, just enough to offset the reduction in government spending (approx $1T). Should not be a problem, given that the amount we need to hit the books over the next 18 months is a very small percentage of the total.

Consumer spending is not, in fact, declining.....yet (although it likely will do so soon).
https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/consumer-packaged-goods/our-insights/the-state-of-the-us-consumer
Unemployment is driven by new entrants, not job losses.
https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/04/economy/us-jobs-report-march-2025/index.html
Fed has reduced growth projections, but is still projecting economic expansion for 2025-2027.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20250319.htm

Reduction in CPI is actually a sign of a slowing economy. Lower gas prices? a slowing economy uses less gas. and so on and so on. You will see that same dynamic on trade.....trade deficit will narrow as an economy slows. To the extent a trade deficit is structural (and ours explicitly is), a yawning trade deficit is a leading indicator of coming expansion (businesses stocking up inventory to meet growing demand).

Again.....avoid the temptation to let microeconomic challenges cloud the view of the macroeconomic situation. Trump is making macroeconomic changes. He's changing the landscape, the laws of gravity that dictate the way things will flow. By definition, existing supply chains cannot cope with those changes. THAT IS THE POINT! 70+ years ago, sovereign power chose to engage in globalism as a response to a rising USSR. Because that response was effective, it is no longer useful = it achieved its objective, ergo its costs (trade deficits) are no longer offset by advantages. So sovereign power (belatedly) defined new objectives - decouple from China and bring a greater percentage of supply chains back home.

note that Apple has announced it will move all of its US-oriented iPhone production out of China by 2026, relocating most of it to India. That, my friend, is tariffs at work. Trade policy always serves national security policy. Trump created macroeconomic conditions that will drain China of most of its US-oriented production over the next decade. SOME of that production will come home.
#winning

---

The problem you keep having is confusing government budget deficits and trade deficits as if their resolution is equivalent and resolution approaches are the same. It's mind boggling how you've leaned into this misguided concept.

The trade deficit isn't a wound. It's a byproduct of American strength in our currency, our markets, our consumer base, and our role as the global economic anchor.
and a sign of our weakness as a producer.

You keep trying to close the trade deficit like it's a budget shortfall, but you're missing the entire point of modern economics. We don't measure success by exports minus imports. We measure it by productivity, innovation, capital investment, and long term competitiveness.
"Modern economics" is the problem. Consumption is important, but hardly the only important consideration. Trade deficits force us to sell equity, putting us in position of shipping wealth abroad to finance our consumption.

Trade deficits are a signal not a sin. And mistaking them for failure is how you end up designing policies that punish your own people to chase a number that never needed fixing. Even your India reference only solved a targeted geo-strategic shift, that began during the Biden admin btw, that could have been specifically targeted instead of attacking the world putting everyone on the defensive and more likely to find/shift to alternative solutions, or worse depress global demand which is manifesting as we speak.
Trade deficits are only a sin if we let them go on for 50 YEARS and continue to grow to unsustainable levels. IF we do not reduce them, we will not be able to maintain the value of the USD and all that "strength" you cited above will evaporate.

And to help assess the scope of the problem you are fixated on, here's real data. We can certainly attack more strategic production opportunities here, but they are not tariff driven.

Trump is chasing a political agenda while sacrificing our broader strategic advantages.

---

Manufacturing output is good. Growth in manufacturing output is good. But if that output is not exported, the trade deficit will grow and grow and grow, which creates an escalating ladder of socio-economic pathologies.

The only sustainable growth is export-led growth.

If you'd ever read a trade textbook, you'd know that.

And here you are trying to argue that export surpluses are a bad thing, and that trade deficits don't matter.

J.R. said:

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Cook's Apple said tariffs will cost $900M for this quarter. Tariffs are really working well. Why the Tech Bros cozied up to trump was not smart. I know why they did it, but still. So much winning!

---

yes, this is a sign tariffs are working. They will force Apple to make hard decisions about costs. Like moving China production to India.

Macro > Micro

Redbrickbear said:

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Limited IQ Redneck in PU said:

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Tell Trump that. He is a big "do as I say not as I do" kinds guy.

---

Did he exempt his own companies from the Tariffs?

Nope, looks like he is playing by the same rules as everyone else.

He wants manufacturing back here in the USA.

[Trump closes tax-exempt loophole for all Chinese imports, increasing online shopping costs

Starting Friday, the Trump administration is closing a loophole making all purchases from China subject to tariffs up to 145%.]

https://www.wbaltv.com/article/trump-closes-tax-exempt-loophole-for-chinese-imports-increasing-online-shopping-costs/64651932

---

yep. We have a bunch of Hillary Clinton's on this thread, don't we?
https://www.businessinsider.com/video-trump-tells-clinton-2016-he-smart-pay-no-tax-2020-9?op=1

He understands how globalism works very, very well. And he will use it to make money, because he's in the business of making money. He also understands the costs of globalism for the American people, and he's going to keep his promise to end it.

whiterock said:

---

FLBear5630 said:

---

ScottS said:

---

LIB,MR BEARS said:

---

NEW: China Caves On 125% Tariff For Major U.S. Export.https://t.co/7qJAUFhguz#DiamondandSilk

— Diamond and Silk® (@DiamondandSilk) April 30, 2025

---

We've seen alot of panic from the TDS side in the short run. But, this is about the long game. If China is already caving, I think this is great news. I think the long game will show evening the tariffs between us and other countries.

---

Actually, the concern is opposite.

Near Term - less than 6 months, concern because they are destroying a lot of lives for speed and extremism. No one disagrees that changes are needed, they are always needed as conditions change and (in this case the reaction to bad decisions by the Biden and the first Trump Admin). But to do it this way, has hurt a lot of people that have done nothing but their jobs.
No lives have been destroyed. Not one.

Short term - 6 months to a year, no concern. They will all "cave" because they are heavily invested in the US market.

Long term - over 1 year, real economic concern. They may cave now, but they are working on NOT being in this position again. We may get some "diplomatic lip service", but the EU, China and even our allies on Asia are looking at other markets and diversification. What will the long-term picture look like when they develop other options. Trump may hold all the cards on this hand, but the game is more than one hand.
But, wait. If they caved because they are heavily invested, how do they improve themselves by planning to exit over the long term? To where?

But, hey this will be a MAGA dream isolationism, and little say beyond our shores.

---

LOL. What "other markets" can replace the USA?

They will not seek to isolate us, because they can't. We are not just a quarter of world GDP, we are the best quarter of world GDP. They would rather have half of the export market they have now than none, and they will make concessions to keep it (for fear others will get it).

We cannot continue to let our trade deficit grow. It is unsustainable. Our trade partners know that. And THAT'S why they will make the concessions. It's the old adage - "hogs get fat; pigs get slaughtered" jn real life. They will give up some trade surplus in order to protect the value of all those USD they are holding in their portfolios.

---

I know numerous people out two years before retirement, that f-ed up their lives. I know people laid off because contracts cancelled. So don't give me the crap that no one is negatively effected.

You really think they are just going to just give Trump what he wants. They are not discussing alternatives or responding in any way. That is how people respond to being forced into agreements. Human nature is just go along? He will get his way now, until they develop alternatives. You really think Trump will win and everyone will just fall in line and be friendly to the US.

nein51 said:

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boognish_bear said:

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TARIFFS: China is in free fall. Factories closing. CCP official ‘disappearing’. empty cargo ships loitering around ports. Millions out of work. Time is running out. pic.twitter.com/K0wbUvIMzK

— @amuse (@amuse) May 2, 2025

---

I've been saying they need us just as much as we need them. There is no method to replace the U.S. market. It doesn't exist.

---

It's so obvious, yet his critics studiously ignore it, choosing to make arguments assuming that we are the only ones who will bear any pain at all.

Sure, we are going to go thru growing pains.
Everyone else is going to go thru withdrawal pains, which in some cases will carry existential risk.

we have the best assets. We have the best hands. It is exceedingly difficult to craft a viable scenario where we emerge from this in a worse position. We are too big, too strong, too important to everyone else.

nein51 said:

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KaiBear said:

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Oldbear83 said:

---

KaiBear said:

---

nein51 said:

---

boognish_bear said:

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TARIFFS: China is in free fall. Factories closing. CCP official ‘disappearing’. empty cargo ships loitering around ports. Millions out of work. Time is running out. pic.twitter.com/K0wbUvIMzK

— @amuse (@amuse) May 2, 2025

---

I've been saying they need us just as much as we need them. There is no method to replace the U.S. market. It doesn't exist.

---

Agreed

But communists don't face midterm elections.
And our electorate has the patience of a rattlesnake.

---

China has problems the media never talks about.

Big ones.

---

Hope you are correct and China folds.

---

Both sides are going to fold.

---

Trade policy origami

Oldbear83 said:

---

KaiBear said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

KaiBear said:

---

nein51 said:

---

boognish_bear said:

---

TARIFFS: China is in free fall. Factories closing. CCP official ‘disappearing’. empty cargo ships loitering around ports. Millions out of work. Time is running out. pic.twitter.com/K0wbUvIMzK

— @amuse (@amuse) May 2, 2025

---

I've been saying they need us just as much as we need them. There is no method to replace the U.S. market. It doesn't exist.

---

Agreed

But communists don't face midterm elections.
And our electorate has the patience of a rattlesnake.

---

China has problems the media never talks about.

Big ones.

---

Hope you are correct and China folds.

---

Like so many things this is a contest with many dimensions and levels.

---

one of the biggest errors of the critics is a reflexively manichaean analysis.....that Trump is trying to do the impossible - bring ALL manufacturing home.

The goal here is incremental. We don't need to bring it all home to repair the trade deficit. Just some. We don't have to balance it in a single year, either. We just have to reduce it. Hell, just freezing it where it is while we grow the economy (thereby reducing the percentage of deficit over time) would be a significant accomplishment given where we are - a structural and inexorably rising deficit.

whiterock said:

---

nein51 said:

---

boognish_bear said:

---

TARIFFS: China is in free fall. Factories closing. CCP official ‘disappearing’. empty cargo ships loitering around ports. Millions out of work. Time is running out. pic.twitter.com/K0wbUvIMzK

— @amuse (@amuse) May 2, 2025

---

I've been saying they need us just as much as we need them. There is no method to replace the U.S. market. It doesn't exist.

---

It's so obvious, yet his critics studiously ignore it, choosing to make arguments assuming that we are the only ones who will bear any pain at all.

Sure, we are going to go thru growing pains.
Everyone else is going to go thru withdrawal pains, which in some cases will carry existential risk.

we have the best assets. We have the best hands. It is exceedingly difficult to craft a viable scenario where we emerge from this in a worse position. We are too big, too strong, too important to everyone else.

---

The Hubris is incredible. You think people around the world are just going to roll over and give Trump what he wants?

Come on, when backed into a corner your response is "Oh well, we need them give him what he wants?"

For how long do they have no choice? How do they react to having no choice? This is not aimed at one Nation, like sanctions. This is across the board.

Come on, you are former CIA. You guys don't think about scenarios through to an end game?? Trump didn't do this in a win-win how can we make this better for both sides, he did it as a F-you, give me what I want or else... Come on CIA, how do National leaders react to that situation? Gladly we want to make Trump happy? Appeasement? investigate options, create alliances and then move away from that group? Or worse? We are talking most of the world, not just one Nation.

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Billionaire Warren Buffett says "trade should not be a weapon."

— Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) May 3, 2025

The stock market rebound is now a historic winning streak https://t.co/YmJCuTyH4J

— CNBC (@CNBC) May 2, 2025

FLBear5630 said:

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KaiBear said:

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Trump is attempting to remedy 50 years of horrible trades policies.

It's unrealistic to expect such remedies to be painless.

I expect a 5-15 percent reduction of our net worth over the next 6-14 months.

However I support Trumps actions.

---

You know, I get where you are coming. What bothers me is who is paying, not the wealthy. Those who broke it got rich, now the middle and working class are supposed to be understanding and take the hit? Sorry, I paid for **** too long taking the hit in 08, 00's and 90's and to take the hit again. am not understanding enough to take Trump's hit. Figure it out, but don't **** with my retirement...

---

1 vote for passing it on to the kids and grandkids. Got it.

KaiBear said:

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FLBear5630 said:

---

KaiBear said:

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Trump is attempting to remedy 50 years of horrible trades policies.

It's unrealistic to expect such remedies to be painless.

I expect a 5-15 percent reduction of our net worth over the next 6-14 months.

However I support Trumps actions.

---

You know, I get where you are coming. What bothers me is who is paying, not the wealthy. Those who broke it got rich, now the middle and working class are supposed to be understanding and take the hit? Sorry, I paid for **** too long taking the hit in 08, 00's and 90's and to take the hit again. am not understanding enough to take Trump's hit. Figure it out, but don't **** with my retirement...

---

If we don't reverse the drain of jobs overseas and our expanding federal deficit.......our entire economy is going to collapse.

Will make the Great Depression look like nothing.

Unfortunately our electorate generally doesn't have the intelligence or patience to endure corrective measures.

---

Just like FLBear, the electorate is only concerned about themselves avoiding pain and reaping the rewards themselves. If that pain is paid by later generations, that's cool.

boognish_bear said:

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JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Billionaire Warren Buffett says "trade should not be a weapon."

— Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) May 3, 2025

---

He cashed out before this happened, right about the election time. Isnt he buying up companies that have taken short term losses?

LIB,MR BEARS said:

---

FLBear5630 said:

---

KaiBear said:

---

Trump is attempting to remedy 50 years of horrible trades policies.

It's unrealistic to expect such remedies to be painless.

I expect a 5-15 percent reduction of our net worth over the next 6-14 months.

However I support Trumps actions.

---

You know, I get where you are coming. What bothers me is who is paying, not the wealthy. Those who broke it got rich, now the middle and working class are supposed to be understanding and take the hit? Sorry, I paid for **** too long taking the hit in 08, 00's and 90's and to take the hit again. am not understanding enough to take Trump's hit. Figure it out, but don't **** with my retirement...

---

1 vote for passing it on to the kids and grandkids. Got it.

---

Yeah, so hit those with no time left to make adjustments that spent their lives paying in.

Also, of course future generations will have to pay for National debt. What Universe to you live in where the don't More entitled BS. Every Nation has debt brought forward. Every past Generation dealt with the BS of the previous Generations. Actually, no Nation has f-ed the elderly like yours wants to. Most take care of the elderly after a life of providing.

So, the answer is yes. 1 vote to pass it on, like every other Generation.

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Warren Buffett says it might be a good idea "to own a lot of other currencies" besides the US Dollar. pic.twitter.com/BSYvRRYTOy

— Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) May 3, 2025

Assassin said:

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boognish_bear said:

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JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Billionaire Warren Buffett says "trade should not be a weapon."

— Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) May 3, 2025

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He cashed out before this happened, right about the election time. Isnt he buying up companies that have taken short term losses?

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Yes. Hes also the king of buying in a down market and holding for a long time.

boognish_bear said:

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JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Warren Buffett says it might be a good idea "to own a lot of other currencies" besides the US Dollar. pic.twitter.com/BSYvRRYTOy

— Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) May 3, 2025

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It was an interesting hour-ish +++. With that voice though, I kept thinking I was listening to RFK...

LIB,MR BEARS said:

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KaiBear said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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KaiBear said:

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Trump is attempting to remedy 50 years of horrible trades policies.

It's unrealistic to expect such remedies to be painless.

I expect a 5-15 percent reduction of our net worth over the next 6-14 months.

However I support Trumps actions.

---

You know, I get where you are coming. What bothers me is who is paying, not the wealthy. Those who broke it got rich, now the middle and working class are supposed to be understanding and take the hit? Sorry, I paid for **** too long taking the hit in 08, 00's and 90's and to take the hit again. am not understanding enough to take Trump's hit. Figure it out, but don't **** with my retirement...

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If we don't reverse the drain of jobs overseas and our expanding federal deficit.......our entire economy is going to collapse.

Will make the Great Depression look like nothing.

Unfortunately our electorate generally doesn't have the intelligence or patience to endure corrective measures.

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Just like FLBear, the electorate is only concerned about themselves avoiding pain and reaping the rewards themselves. If that pain is paid by later generations, that's cool.

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So the working class of the United States should be subject to pain and suffering for the greater good? That kind of eerily sounds like..............Socialism.

The government is in place to serve the people and make their lives easier, - not more difficult.

Nope .. no Virtue Signaling here!

"So far 1Q earnings season better than feared w/ 1Q growth tracking +12% vs +6% expected" - Goldman

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 2, 2025

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

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LIB,MR BEARS said:

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KaiBear said:

---

FLBear5630 said:

---

KaiBear said:

---

Trump is attempting to remedy 50 years of horrible trades policies.

It's unrealistic to expect such remedies to be painless.

I expect a 5-15 percent reduction of our net worth over the next 6-14 months.

However I support Trumps actions.

---

You know, I get where you are coming. What bothers me is who is paying, not the wealthy. Those who broke it got rich, now the middle and working class are supposed to be understanding and take the hit? Sorry, I paid for **** too long taking the hit in 08, 00's and 90's and to take the hit again. am not understanding enough to take Trump's hit. Figure it out, but don't **** with my retirement...

---

If we don't reverse the drain of jobs overseas and our expanding federal deficit.......our entire economy is going to collapse.

Will make the Great Depression look like nothing.

Unfortunately our electorate generally doesn't have the intelligence or patience to endure corrective measures.

---

Just like FLBear, the electorate is only concerned about themselves avoiding pain and reaping the rewards themselves. If that pain is paid by later generations, that's cool.

---

So the working class of the United States should be subject to pain and suffering for the greater good? That kind of eerily sounds like..............Socialism.

The government is in place to serve the people and make their lives easier, - not more difficult.

---

"The government is in place to serve the people and make their lives easier, - not more difficult."

I would substitute "better". I am on the same page as Ike. He believes the same things, but the execution was much different. The people's welfare was always paramount. Trump maintains the opposite, the normal American should bear the burden. That is a *******ization of Government...


"It is the worst thing we can do to get so caught up in politics that we lose sight of the people we are serving." Dwight D. Eisenhower

"Plans are nothing; planning is everything." Dwight D. Eisenhower

"You don't lead by hitting people over the headthat's assault, not leadership." Dwight D. Eisenhower

"All of us do not have equal talent, but all of us should have an equal opportunity to develop our talents." Dwight D. Eisenhower

"We must beware of needless innovations, particularly when guided by self-interest." Dwight D. Eisenhower

"The measure of the success of any leader is not the number of followers he has, but the number of leaders he nurtures." Dwight D. Eisenhower

"Isolation is a dangerous place to be." Dwight D. Eisenhower

FLBear5630 said:

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RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

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LIB,MR BEARS said:

---

KaiBear said:

---

FLBear5630 said:

---

KaiBear said:

---

Trump is attempting to remedy 50 years of horrible trades policies.

It's unrealistic to expect such remedies to be painless.

I expect a 5-15 percent reduction of our net worth over the next 6-14 months.

However I support Trumps actions.

---

You know, I get where you are coming. What bothers me is who is paying, not the wealthy. Those who broke it got rich, now the middle and working class are supposed to be understanding and take the hit? Sorry, I paid for **** too long taking the hit in 08, 00's and 90's and to take the hit again. am not understanding enough to take Trump's hit. Figure it out, but don't **** with my retirement...

---

If we don't reverse the drain of jobs overseas and our expanding federal deficit.......our entire economy is going to collapse.

Will make the Great Depression look like nothing.

Unfortunately our electorate generally doesn't have the intelligence or patience to endure corrective measures.

---

Just like FLBear, the electorate is only concerned about themselves avoiding pain and reaping the rewards themselves. If that pain is paid by later generations, that's cool.

---

So the working class of the United States should be subject to pain and suffering for the greater good? That kind of eerily sounds like..............Socialism.

The government is in place to serve the people and make their lives easier, - not more difficult.

---

"The government is in place to serve the people and make their lives easier, - not more difficult."

I would substitute "better". I am on the same page as Ike. He believes the same things, but the execution was much different. The people's welfare was always paramount. Trump maintains the opposite, the normal American should bear the burden. That is a *******ization of Government...


"It is the worst thing we can do to get so caught up in politics that we lose sight of the people we are serving." Dwight D. Eisenhower

"Plans are nothing; planning is everything." Dwight D. Eisenhower

"You don't lead by hitting people over the headthat's assault, not leadership." Dwight D. Eisenhower

"All of us do not have equal talent, but all of us should have an equal opportunity to develop our talents." Dwight D. Eisenhower

"We must beware of needless innovations, particularly when guided by self-interest." Dwight D. Eisenhower

"The measure of the success of any leader is not the number of followers he has, but the number of leaders he nurtures." Dwight D. Eisenhower

"Isolation is a dangerous place to be." Dwight D. Eisenhower

---

I bet Ike liked to correct problems he and those before him created rather than kicking them down the road.

LIB,MR BEARS said:

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FLBear5630 said:

---

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

---

LIB,MR BEARS said:

---

KaiBear said:

---

FLBear5630 said:

---

KaiBear said:

---

Trump is attempting to remedy 50 years of horrible trades policies.

It's unrealistic to expect such remedies to be painless.

I expect a 5-15 percent reduction of our net worth over the next 6-14 months.

However I support Trumps actions.

---

You know, I get where you are coming. What bothers me is who is paying, not the wealthy. Those who broke it got rich, now the middle and working class are supposed to be understanding and take the hit? Sorry, I paid for **** too long taking the hit in 08, 00's and 90's and to take the hit again. am not understanding enough to take Trump's hit. Figure it out, but don't **** with my retirement...

---

If we don't reverse the drain of jobs overseas and our expanding federal deficit.......our entire economy is going to collapse.

Will make the Great Depression look like nothing.

Unfortunately our electorate generally doesn't have the intelligence or patience to endure corrective measures.

---

Just like FLBear, the electorate is only concerned about themselves avoiding pain and reaping the rewards themselves. If that pain is paid by later generations, that's cool.

---

So the working class of the United States should be subject to pain and suffering for the greater good? That kind of eerily sounds like..............Socialism.

The government is in place to serve the people and make their lives easier, - not more difficult.

---

"The government is in place to serve the people and make their lives easier, - not more difficult."

I would substitute "better". I am on the same page as Ike. He believes the same things, but the execution was much different. The people's welfare was always paramount. Trump maintains the opposite, the normal American should bear the burden. That is a *******ization of Government...


"It is the worst thing we can do to get so caught up in politics that we lose sight of the people we are serving." Dwight D. Eisenhower

"Plans are nothing; planning is everything." Dwight D. Eisenhower

"You don't lead by hitting people over the headthat's assault, not leadership." Dwight D. Eisenhower

"All of us do not have equal talent, but all of us should have an equal opportunity to develop our talents." Dwight D. Eisenhower

"We must beware of needless innovations, particularly when guided by self-interest." Dwight D. Eisenhower

"The measure of the success of any leader is not the number of followers he has, but the number of leaders he nurtures." Dwight D. Eisenhower

"Isolation is a dangerous place to be." Dwight D. Eisenhower

---

I bet Ike liked to correct problems he and those before him created rather than kicking them down the road.

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No doubt. This is not about correcting problems, this is about how he is correcting problems. That differs greatly. I would wager no one on here disagrees about the problems needing to be corrected or even the method, it is the execution and the total disregard for the people he is governing. This is not the same Trump that came down the elevator, it is a mean, vindictive Trump taking out issues with Biden on the American people and the world.

FLBear5630 said:

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whiterock said:

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nein51 said:

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boognish_bear said:

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TARIFFS: China is in free fall. Factories closing. CCP official ‘disappearing’. empty cargo ships loitering around ports. Millions out of work. Time is running out. pic.twitter.com/K0wbUvIMzK

— @amuse (@amuse) May 2, 2025

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I've been saying they need us just as much as we need them. There is no method to replace the U.S. market. It doesn't exist.

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It's so obvious, yet his critics studiously ignore it, choosing to make arguments assuming that we are the only ones who will bear any pain at all.

Sure, we are going to go thru growing pains.
Everyone else is going to go thru withdrawal pains, which in some cases will carry existential risk.

we have the best assets. We have the best hands. It is exceedingly difficult to craft a viable scenario where we emerge from this in a worse position. We are too big, too strong, too important to everyone else.

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The Hubris is incredible. You think people around the world are just going to roll over and give Trump what he wants?
Yep. They don't have any choice. They are going to get frozen out of our markets if they don't make concessions. You are acting like they can just flip us the bird and go sell all that stuff they're geared to make for us to someone else. (news flash: they can't).

Come on, when backed into a corner your response is "Oh well, we need them give him what he wants?"
Again. Explain what their options are. (they don't have any good ones, and the ones your complaints presume they will make are among the worst available to them).

For how long do they have no choice? How do they react to having no choice? This is not aimed at one Nation, like sanctions. This is across the board.
The cheapest, least cost, least damage option they have to save as many jobs as they can is to cut a deal with us. Picking up their toys & going home = instant recession for THEM.

Come on, you are former CIA. You guys don't think about scenarios through to an end game??
I do. You don't. In fairness, neither do any of the loudest critics of Trump's trade policies.

Trump didn't do this in a win-win how can we make this better for both sides, he did it as a F-you, give me what I want or else...
What we have now is most certainly not a win-win. And if we let it continue, it will be bad for them as well as us. At. Some. Point. the trade deficit house of cards will collapse and everyone will be poorer.

Come on CIA, how do National leaders react to that situation?
They try to salvage as many exports/jobs as they can.
They try to offer things that will placate us. Paying for the cost of what we're doing to Yemen would be a very good start, for example.

Gladly we want to make Trump happy? Appeasement? investigate options, create alliances and then move away from that group? Or worse? We are talking most of the world, not just one Nation.
Geez you are emoting here. We're not talking about most of the world. THe problem we're trying to sovle involves a dozen nations or so with whom we have the lion's share of our trade deficit.

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You are like those snowflakes screaming at the sky rather than thinking this thru. We are in a very commanding position. WE have the trade deficit. THEY depend on us buying their stuff. If we don't, THEY go into severe recession, in some cases economic collapse....long before we do. Those elected officials we're negotiating with don't want to lose an election because they waited too long to cut a deal with us and forced their economies into recession. We have the resources and skills to make almost everything we import. It is madness to continue running these kinds of trade deficits, selling equities in our real estate, equities, and sovereign debt to finance our consumption. We did it mostly for THEM....to build relationships to help us all win the Cold War. And it worked! Now is not the time to continue sweetheart deals that fostered wildly unbalanced trade relationships. Now is the time to use our substantial leverage to force a level playing field.

I'm not a critic of globalism per se. I have often pointed out its benefits....why we did it....why it was in our interest to do so. AND IT WORKED! I have also pointed the costs of globalism, why it is madness to continue incurring its costs when we no longer have any need to do so. It is long past time to start making things again. We are cutting the cord with globalism because we have to. We cannot sustain it. The textbooks literally say "export-led growth is the only sustainable growth." And we do NOT have export led growth. Us buying their TVs and them buying our paper is not trade. That is us rent seeking our way to disaster. China wants to subsidize steel? Fine. We buy it and make ships to sell to China. THAT is trade. (but that is a far cry from what is happening.)

boognish_bear said:

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JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Billionaire Warren Buffett says "trade should not be a weapon."

— Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) May 3, 2025

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how cute. Businessmen and economists have in common the curious notion that sovereign powers have no interest in trade....just make borders irrelevant and free markets will solve all problems.

How has that worked out so far?

Reality is.......trade policy ALWAYS serves national security policy. That was so during the Cold War, when we thoughtfully put in place the macroeconomic incentives for what we now know as globalism....we willingly offshored substantial percentages of our manufacturing base in order to foster economic development of our allies.

That policy has run its course, and now is increasingly harmful to us. That is why it will end. It has to. If you think that is not so, just look how far behind China we are on steel production and ship building capacity. We are in a calamitous position......a couple of good battles away from being Spain in 1588.

FER CRISSAKES we gotta S.T.O.P what we're doing !!!!!!!

https://www.americanmanufacturing.org/blog/chinas-shipbuilding-capacity-is-232-times-greater-than-that-of-the-united-states/

whiterock said:

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boognish_bear said:

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JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Billionaire Warren Buffett says "trade should not be a weapon."

— Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) May 3, 2025

---

how cute. Businessmen and economists have in common the curious notion that sovereign powers have no interest in trade....just make borders irrelevant and free markets will solve all problems.

How has that worked out so far?

Reality is.......trade policy ALWAYS serves national security policy. That was so during the Cold War, when we thoughtfully put in place the macroeconomic incentives for what we now know as globalism....we willingly offshored substantial percentages of our manufacturing base in order to foster economic development of our allies.

That policy has run its course, and now is increasingly harmful to us. That is why it will end. It has to. If you think that is not so, just look how far behind China we are on steel production and ship building capacity. We are in a calamitous position......a couple of good battles away from being Spain in 1588.

FER CRISSAKES we gotta S.T.O.P what we're doing !!!!!!!

https://www.americanmanufacturing.org/blog/chinas-shipbuilding-capacity-is-232-times-greater-than-that-of-the-united-states/

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Having worked in many of those shipyards, we have the capabilities, just not the want-to