April 2nd Reciprocal Tariffs

319,095 Views | 3993 Replies | Last: 2 mo ago by J.R.
TinFoilHatPreacherBear
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Porteroso said:

TinFoilHatPreacherBear said:

Porteroso said:

TinFoilHatPreacherBear said:

boognish_bear said:

Are we still trying to reshore jobs to America if we are backing down on the tariffs?


We aren't backing down on the tariffs. Significant tariffs are still on the books.

Incredibly high tariffs was never the plan outside of resetting trade negotiations.

You know this. TDSers lie just about everything Trump related.


Going from 145% to 30% is not ramping up, it is not holding even, it is backing down. Don't do too many mental gymnastics trying to defend every little thing Trump does.
You're so used to lying for progressives out of hate for Trump, that you're probably not even intellectually honest with yourself. You don't even know what you think anymore, because only an idiot would say what you just said.


We dropped the tariff rate from 145% to 30% and you want to die on the hill of "we aren't backing down on the tariffs." Somehow implicitly spinning it as intellectual honesty. Oh my god you are a hoot!


30% tariffs is not backing down on tariffs. No sane person would make that argument. That is a significant tariff.

Its not a hill to die on, it's just truth. Your brain is broken. TDS takes its toll.
Thee tinfoil hat couch-potato prognosticator, not a bible school preacher.


Porteroso
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Assassin said:

Porteroso said:

TinFoilHatPreacherBear said:

Porteroso said:

TinFoilHatPreacherBear said:

boognish_bear said:

Are we still trying to reshore jobs to America if we are backing down on the tariffs?


We aren't backing down on the tariffs. Significant tariffs are still on the books.

Incredibly high tariffs was never the plan outside of resetting trade negotiations.

You know this. TDSers lie just about everything Trump related.


Going from 145% to 30% is not ramping up, it is not holding even, it is backing down. Don't do too many mental gymnastics trying to defend every little thing Trump does.
You're so used to lying for progressives out of hate for Trump, that you're probably not even intellectually honest with yourself. You don't even know what you think anymore, because only an idiot would say what you just said.


We dropped the tariff rate from 145% to 30% and you want to die on the hill of "we aren't backing down on the tariffs." Somehow implicitly spinning it as intellectual honesty. Oh my god you are a hoot!
Porter, at some point, you are going to have to give Trump credit for a brilliant job with the tariffs, the economy and all the other economic issues. Biden left the country in shambles. Trump is not only fixing it, but making it much better.

The economy was simply not in shambles. That's just what Trump needed to say to get elected. Inflation was already coming down when Trump took office, and inflation readings tend to lag up to 6 months behind the root cause or impetus.

I will absolutely not give Trump credit yet, because he can really screw this up still. I will give all the credit if it succeeds, but I disagree with the premise of the Executive Branch seizing emergency and wartime powers during peace to allow one person the ability to declare economic war on the entire free world in order to reshape the economy the way that one person sees fit.

The ability to declare war, either economic (tariffs) or violent, was expressly given to Congress. Congress may have delegated some of that power during the Cold War, and may be reluctant to take it back in the current political climate, but anyone who believes in separation of powers, limited government, and the fundamentally good system designed by the Constitution, does not want this precedent set. It is in my opinion, illegal amounts of power being irresponsibly wielded.

All that said, as poor as the plan was until Bessent stepped in for damage control, it could absolutely work for the benefit of America. Congress is largely shackled into inaction on this issue, immigration too. Only someone like Trump would even be able to try it.
TinFoilHatPreacherBear
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J.R. said:

Limited IQ Redneck in PU said:

TinFoilHatPreacherBear said:

Porteroso said:

TinFoilHatPreacherBear said:

boognish_bear said:

Are we still trying to reshore jobs to America if we are backing down on the tariffs?


We aren't backing down on the tariffs. Significant tariffs are still on the books.

Incredibly high tariffs was never the plan outside of resetting trade negotiations.

You know this. TDSers lie just about everything Trump related.


Going from 145% to 30% is not ramping up, it is not holding even, it is backing down. Don't do too many mental gymnastics trying to defend every little thing Trump does.
You're so used to lying for progressives out of hate for Trump, that you're probably not even intellectually honest with yourself. You don't even know what you think anymore, because only an idiot would say what you just said.


One of the funniett posts inn the history of BF/Sic
not funny, just down right dumb. The tin man give Little Johnny and Old 83 a run for the money as the most ill informed and dumbest, blinded by the Trump light posters here. ok it is funny


JR, you lose every argument you're involved in on this site. You barely know diddly about macro economics. At least you have Google.
Thee tinfoil hat couch-potato prognosticator, not a bible school preacher.


Porteroso
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TinFoilHatPreacherBear said:

Porteroso said:

TinFoilHatPreacherBear said:

Porteroso said:

TinFoilHatPreacherBear said:

boognish_bear said:

Are we still trying to reshore jobs to America if we are backing down on the tariffs?


We aren't backing down on the tariffs. Significant tariffs are still on the books.

Incredibly high tariffs was never the plan outside of resetting trade negotiations.

You know this. TDSers lie just about everything Trump related.


Going from 145% to 30% is not ramping up, it is not holding even, it is backing down. Don't do too many mental gymnastics trying to defend every little thing Trump does.
You're so used to lying for progressives out of hate for Trump, that you're probably not even intellectually honest with yourself. You don't even know what you think anymore, because only an idiot would say what you just said.


We dropped the tariff rate from 145% to 30% and you want to die on the hill of "we aren't backing down on the tariffs." Somehow implicitly spinning it as intellectual honesty. Oh my god you are a hoot!


30% tariffs is not backing down on tariffs. No sane person would make that argument. That is a significant tariff.

Its not a hill to die on, it's just truth. Your brain is broken. TDS takes its toll.

Why is that a bad way to describe it? Is it ramping up? Holding steady? Or are you so in love with Trump that actual down is up to you?
TinFoilHatPreacherBear
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LIB,MR BEARS said:

KaiBear said:

LIB,MR BEARS said:

boognish_bear said:



Or another way to word it…

"US inflation fell to 2.3% in April, the lowest since 2021"
Cant be true....must be still another 'Trump lie'.

ABC did manage to provide good news by describing it using these words, "rose" and "fear" and tied it to Trump and the tariffs.
Always the ones for a negative spin


Yep, it's clear by the wording that they're still TRYING to mislead readers.
Thee tinfoil hat couch-potato prognosticator, not a bible school preacher.


Assassin
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Porteroso said:

Assassin said:

Porteroso said:

TinFoilHatPreacherBear said:

Porteroso said:

TinFoilHatPreacherBear said:

boognish_bear said:

Are we still trying to reshore jobs to America if we are backing down on the tariffs?


We aren't backing down on the tariffs. Significant tariffs are still on the books.

Incredibly high tariffs was never the plan outside of resetting trade negotiations.

You know this. TDSers lie just about everything Trump related.


Going from 145% to 30% is not ramping up, it is not holding even, it is backing down. Don't do too many mental gymnastics trying to defend every little thing Trump does.
You're so used to lying for progressives out of hate for Trump, that you're probably not even intellectually honest with yourself. You don't even know what you think anymore, because only an idiot would say what you just said.


We dropped the tariff rate from 145% to 30% and you want to die on the hill of "we aren't backing down on the tariffs." Somehow implicitly spinning it as intellectual honesty. Oh my god you are a hoot!
Porter, at some point, you are going to have to give Trump credit for a brilliant job with the tariffs, the economy and all the other economic issues. Biden left the country in shambles. Trump is not only fixing it, but making it much better.

The economy was simply not in shambles. That's just what Trump needed to say to get elected. Inflation was already coming down when Trump took office, and inflation readings tend to lag up to 6 months behind the root cause or impetus.

I will absolutely not give Trump credit yet, because he can really screw this up still. I will give all the credit if it succeeds, but I disagree with the premise of the Executive Branch seizing emergency and wartime powers during peace to allow one person the ability to declare economic war on the entire free world in order to reshape the economy the way that one person sees fit.

The ability to declare war, either economic (tariffs) or violent, was expressly given to Congress. Congress may have delegated some of that power during the Cold War, and may be reluctant to take it back in the current political climate, but anyone who believes in separation of powers, limited government, and the fundamentally good system designed by the Constitution, does not want this precedent set. It is in my opinion, illegal amounts of power being irresponsibly wielded.

All that said, as poor as the plan was until Bessent stepped in for damage control, it could absolutely work for the benefit of America. Congress is largely shackled into inaction on this issue, immigration too. Only someone like Trump would even be able to try it.
Remember that the numbers for the Biden economy keep getting revised as there was a lot of fluff (aka BS) in them.

There were also warning signs in more detailed data that conditions were not as robust at the end of former President Biden's term as the headline numbers imply.
  • Manufacturing was in an ongoing slump, with output contracting on a year-on-year basis every month from July to December. The Institute for Supply Management survey of manufacturers came in at 49.3 in December, just below the level of 50 that is the line between expansion and contraction.
  • The job market was stuck in place, with companies not firing many workers but also not doing much hiring. The rate at which employers hired in December was 3.4%; it was higher than that in every single month from March 2014 to February 2020.
  • Strong overall job growth in 2024 masked that it was disproportionately coming from sectors less tied to the overall business cycle, particularly state and local government and health care.
  • The professional and business services sector experienced year-over-year job losses every month since September 2023, and manufacturing since October 2023.
Facebook Groups at; Memories of Dallas, Mem of Texas, Mem of Football in Texas, Mem Texas Music and Through a Texas Lens. Come visit! Over 100,000 members and 100,000 regular visitors
FLBear5630
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KaiBear said:

LIB,MR BEARS said:

boognish_bear said:



Or another way to word it…

"US inflation fell to 2.3% in April, the lowest since 2021"
Cant be true....must be still another 'Trump lie'.
Biden's Economy???? Guess not this month. : )

J.R.
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TinFoilHatPreacherBear said:

J.R. said:

Limited IQ Redneck in PU said:

TinFoilHatPreacherBear said:

Porteroso said:

TinFoilHatPreacherBear said:

boognish_bear said:

Are we still trying to reshore jobs to America if we are backing down on the tariffs?


We aren't backing down on the tariffs. Significant tariffs are still on the books.

Incredibly high tariffs was never the plan outside of resetting trade negotiations.

You know this. TDSers lie just about everything Trump related.


Going from 145% to 30% is not ramping up, it is not holding even, it is backing down. Don't do too many mental gymnastics trying to defend every little thing Trump does.
You're so used to lying for progressives out of hate for Trump, that you're probably not even intellectually honest with yourself. You don't even know what you think anymore, because only an idiot would say what you just said.


One of the funniett posts inn the history of BF/Sic
not funny, just down right dumb. The tin man give Little Johnny and Old 83 a run for the money as the most ill informed and dumbest, blinded by the Trump light posters here. ok it is funny


JR, you lose every argument you're involved in on this site. You barely know diddly about macro economics. At least you have Google.
yeah right. Are you currently enrolled in macro economics 101? Get in the real world, tinny. Get some real world experience before you start lecturing me on economics, clown. You are a hoot
J.R.
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Assassin said:

Porteroso said:

Assassin said:

Porteroso said:

TinFoilHatPreacherBear said:

Porteroso said:

TinFoilHatPreacherBear said:

boognish_bear said:

Are we still trying to reshore jobs to America if we are backing down on the tariffs?


We aren't backing down on the tariffs. Significant tariffs are still on the books.

Incredibly high tariffs was never the plan outside of resetting trade negotiations.

You know this. TDSers lie just about everything Trump related.


Going from 145% to 30% is not ramping up, it is not holding even, it is backing down. Don't do too many mental gymnastics trying to defend every little thing Trump does.
You're so used to lying for progressives out of hate for Trump, that you're probably not even intellectually honest with yourself. You don't even know what you think anymore, because only an idiot would say what you just said.


We dropped the tariff rate from 145% to 30% and you want to die on the hill of "we aren't backing down on the tariffs." Somehow implicitly spinning it as intellectual honesty. Oh my god you are a hoot!
Porter, at some point, you are going to have to give Trump credit for a brilliant job with the tariffs, the economy and all the other economic issues. Biden left the country in shambles. Trump is not only fixing it, but making it much better.

The economy was simply not in shambles. That's just what Trump needed to say to get elected. Inflation was already coming down when Trump took office, and inflation readings tend to lag up to 6 months behind the root cause or impetus.

I will absolutely not give Trump credit yet, because he can really screw this up still. I will give all the credit if it succeeds, but I disagree with the premise of the Executive Branch seizing emergency and wartime powers during peace to allow one person the ability to declare economic war on the entire free world in order to reshape the economy the way that one person sees fit.

The ability to declare war, either economic (tariffs) or violent, was expressly given to Congress. Congress may have delegated some of that power during the Cold War, and may be reluctant to take it back in the current political climate, but anyone who believes in separation of powers, limited government, and the fundamentally good system designed by the Constitution, does not want this precedent set. It is in my opinion, illegal amounts of power being irresponsibly wielded.

All that said, as poor as the plan was until Bessent stepped in for damage control, it could absolutely work for the benefit of America. Congress is largely shackled into inaction on this issue, immigration too. Only someone like Trump would even be able to try it.
Remember that the numbers for the Biden economy keep getting revised as there was a lot of fluff (aka BS) in them.

There were also warning signs in more detailed data that conditions were not as robust at the end of former President Biden's term as the headline numbers imply.
  • Manufacturing was in an ongoing slump, with output contracting on a year-on-year basis every month from July to December. The Institute for Supply Management survey of manufacturers came in at 49.3 in December, just below the level of 50 that is the line between expansion and contraction.
  • The job market was stuck in place, with companies not firing many workers but also not doing much hiring. The rate at which employers hired in December was 3.4%; it was higher than that in every single month from March 2014 to February 2020.
  • Strong overall job growth in 2024 masked that it was disproportionately coming from sectors less tied to the overall business cycle, particularly state and local government and health care.
  • The professional and business services sector experienced year-over-year job losses every month since September 2023, and manufacturing since October 2023.

Hey Assman.....do you still like you some Scott Bessent who made all his money (god bless him) running your boogeyman's Soros fund. Shouldn't that be a disqualifier for you?
TinFoilHatPreacherBear
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J.R. said:

TinFoilHatPreacherBear said:

J.R. said:

Limited IQ Redneck in PU said:

TinFoilHatPreacherBear said:

Porteroso said:

TinFoilHatPreacherBear said:

boognish_bear said:

Are we still trying to reshore jobs to America if we are backing down on the tariffs?


We aren't backing down on the tariffs. Significant tariffs are still on the books.

Incredibly high tariffs was never the plan outside of resetting trade negotiations.

You know this. TDSers lie just about everything Trump related.


Going from 145% to 30% is not ramping up, it is not holding even, it is backing down. Don't do too many mental gymnastics trying to defend every little thing Trump does.
You're so used to lying for progressives out of hate for Trump, that you're probably not even intellectually honest with yourself. You don't even know what you think anymore, because only an idiot would say what you just said.


One of the funniett posts inn the history of BF/Sic
not funny, just down right dumb. The tin man give Little Johnny and Old 83 a run for the money as the most ill informed and dumbest, blinded by the Trump light posters here. ok it is funny


JR, you lose every argument you're involved in on this site. You barely know diddly about macro economics. At least you have Google.
yeah right. Are you currently enrolled in macro economics 101? Get in the real world, tinny. Get some real world experience before you start lecturing me on economics, clown. You are a hoot


I'm good with economics and our government.

Unlike you, nobody needs to tell me when/how/why/who by the Fed was formed.
Thee tinfoil hat couch-potato prognosticator, not a bible school preacher.


LIB,MR BEARS
How long do you want to ignore this user?
J.R. said:

TinFoilHatPreacherBear said:

J.R. said:

Limited IQ Redneck in PU said:

TinFoilHatPreacherBear said:

Porteroso said:

TinFoilHatPreacherBear said:

boognish_bear said:

Are we still trying to reshore jobs to America if we are backing down on the tariffs?


We aren't backing down on the tariffs. Significant tariffs are still on the books.

Incredibly high tariffs was never the plan outside of resetting trade negotiations.

You know this. TDSers lie just about everything Trump related.


Going from 145% to 30% is not ramping up, it is not holding even, it is backing down. Don't do too many mental gymnastics trying to defend every little thing Trump does.
You're so used to lying for progressives out of hate for Trump, that you're probably not even intellectually honest with yourself. You don't even know what you think anymore, because only an idiot would say what you just said.


One of the funniett posts inn the history of BF/Sic
not funny, just down right dumb. The tin man give Little Johnny and Old 83 a run for the money as the most ill informed and dumbest, blinded by the Trump light posters here. ok it is funny


JR, you lose every argument you're involved in on this site. You barely know diddly about macro economics. At least you have Google.
yeah right. Are you currently enrolled in macro economics 101? Get in the real world, tinny. Get some real world experience before you start lecturing me on economics, clown. You are a hoot

JR has real-world, practical knowledge of economics. That's why he's chasing the curve on WTI rather than anticipating it.

/s
TinFoilHatPreacherBear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
LIB,MR BEARS said:

J.R. said:

TinFoilHatPreacherBear said:

J.R. said:

Limited IQ Redneck in PU said:

TinFoilHatPreacherBear said:

Porteroso said:

TinFoilHatPreacherBear said:

boognish_bear said:

Are we still trying to reshore jobs to America if we are backing down on the tariffs?


We aren't backing down on the tariffs. Significant tariffs are still on the books.

Incredibly high tariffs was never the plan outside of resetting trade negotiations.

You know this. TDSers lie just about everything Trump related.


Going from 145% to 30% is not ramping up, it is not holding even, it is backing down. Don't do too many mental gymnastics trying to defend every little thing Trump does.
You're so used to lying for progressives out of hate for Trump, that you're probably not even intellectually honest with yourself. You don't even know what you think anymore, because only an idiot would say what you just said.


One of the funniett posts inn the history of BF/Sic
not funny, just down right dumb. The tin man give Little Johnny and Old 83 a run for the money as the most ill informed and dumbest, blinded by the Trump light posters here. ok it is funny


JR, you lose every argument you're involved in on this site. You barely know diddly about macro economics. At least you have Google.
yeah right. Are you currently enrolled in macro economics 101? Get in the real world, tinny. Get some real world experience before you start lecturing me on economics, clown. You are a hoot

JR has real-world, practical knowledge of economics. That's why he's chasing the curve on WTI rather than anticipating it.

/s


Hah.

And I'm not saying JR isn't smart in his specific lane, not obvious here, but he likely was/is.

But we all know guys like him, smart for his industry or market, but no the brightest in others. My dad was like that. Great and successful in his area, but lots of blind spots. Now he was smart enough to learn new areas, but that gets less timely as you age, since professional life rewards those that stay in their lane.
JR may be smart, he just isn't smart enough to know what his blind spots are.
Thee tinfoil hat couch-potato prognosticator, not a bible school preacher.


Assassin
How long do you want to ignore this user?
TinFoilHatPreacherBear said:

LIB,MR BEARS said:

J.R. said:

TinFoilHatPreacherBear said:

J.R. said:

Limited IQ Redneck in PU said:

TinFoilHatPreacherBear said:

Porteroso said:

TinFoilHatPreacherBear said:

boognish_bear said:

Are we still trying to reshore jobs to America if we are backing down on the tariffs?


We aren't backing down on the tariffs. Significant tariffs are still on the books.

Incredibly high tariffs was never the plan outside of resetting trade negotiations.

You know this. TDSers lie just about everything Trump related.


Going from 145% to 30% is not ramping up, it is not holding even, it is backing down. Don't do too many mental gymnastics trying to defend every little thing Trump does.
You're so used to lying for progressives out of hate for Trump, that you're probably not even intellectually honest with yourself. You don't even know what you think anymore, because only an idiot would say what you just said.


One of the funniett posts inn the history of BF/Sic
not funny, just down right dumb. The tin man give Little Johnny and Old 83 a run for the money as the most ill informed and dumbest, blinded by the Trump light posters here. ok it is funny


JR, you lose every argument you're involved in on this site. You barely know diddly about macro economics. At least you have Google.
yeah right. Are you currently enrolled in macro economics 101? Get in the real world, tinny. Get some real world experience before you start lecturing me on economics, clown. You are a hoot

JR has real-world, practical knowledge of economics. That's why he's chasing the curve on WTI rather than anticipating it.

/s
Hah.

And I'm not saying JR isn't smart in his specific lane, not obvious here, but he likely was/is.

But we all know guys like him, smart for his industry or market, but no the brightest in others. My dad was like that. Great and successful in his area, but lots of blind spots. Now he was smart enough to learn new areas, but that gets less timely as you age, since professional life rewards those that stay in their lane.
JR may be smart, he just isn't smart enough to know what his blind spots are.
Understanding JR's Potential Reasons for Bragging:
  • Insecurity: Bragging can be a way to seek validation and boost self-esteem.
  • Attention-Seeking: Some boast to gain attention and admiration.
  • Social Comparison: It can stem from a need to compare oneself favorably to others.
Strategies:
  • Change the Subject: Redirect the conversation to a different topic.
  • Show Limited Interest: Respond neutrally, like "That's nice" or "Okay".
  • Use Humor: Subtly redirect or lighten the mood with humor.
  • Offer a Gentle Reminder: Politely say something like, "You've mentioned that before"..
  • Share a Relevant Story: Share a story about how someone else's bragging bothered you, without directly referencing the person.
  • Put him on Permanent Ignore.
Facebook Groups at; Memories of Dallas, Mem of Texas, Mem of Football in Texas, Mem Texas Music and Through a Texas Lens. Come visit! Over 100,000 members and 100,000 regular visitors
TinFoilHatPreacherBear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Assassin said:

TinFoilHatPreacherBear said:

LIB,MR BEARS said:

J.R. said:

TinFoilHatPreacherBear said:

J.R. said:

Limited IQ Redneck in PU said:

TinFoilHatPreacherBear said:

Porteroso said:

TinFoilHatPreacherBear said:

boognish_bear said:

Are we still trying to reshore jobs to America if we are backing down on the tariffs?


We aren't backing down on the tariffs. Significant tariffs are still on the books.

Incredibly high tariffs was never the plan outside of resetting trade negotiations.

You know this. TDSers lie just about everything Trump related.


Going from 145% to 30% is not ramping up, it is not holding even, it is backing down. Don't do too many mental gymnastics trying to defend every little thing Trump does.
You're so used to lying for progressives out of hate for Trump, that you're probably not even intellectually honest with yourself. You don't even know what you think anymore, because only an idiot would say what you just said.


One of the funniett posts inn the history of BF/Sic
not funny, just down right dumb. The tin man give Little Johnny and Old 83 a run for the money as the most ill informed and dumbest, blinded by the Trump light posters here. ok it is funny


JR, you lose every argument you're involved in on this site. You barely know diddly about macro economics. At least you have Google.
yeah right. Are you currently enrolled in macro economics 101? Get in the real world, tinny. Get some real world experience before you start lecturing me on economics, clown. You are a hoot

JR has real-world, practical knowledge of economics. That's why he's chasing the curve on WTI rather than anticipating it.

/s
Hah.

And I'm not saying JR isn't smart in his specific lane, not obvious here, but he likely was/is.

But we all know guys like him, smart for his industry or market, but no the brightest in others. My dad was like that. Great and successful in his area, but lots of blind spots. Now he was smart enough to learn new areas, but that gets less timely as you age, since professional life rewards those that stay in their lane.
JR may be smart, he just isn't smart enough to know what his blind spots are.
Understanding JR's Potential Reasons for Bragging:
  • Insecurity: Bragging can be a way to seek validation and boost self-esteem.
  • Attention-Seeking: Some boast to gain attention and admiration.
  • Social Comparison: It can stem from a need to compare oneself favorably to others.
Strategies:
  • Change the Subject: Redirect the conversation to a different topic.
  • Show Limited Interest: Respond neutrally, like "That's nice" or "Okay".
  • Use Humor: Subtly redirect or lighten the mood with humor.
  • Offer a Gentle Reminder: Politely say something like, "You've mentioned that before"..
  • Share a Relevant Story: Share a story about how someone else's bragging bothered you, without directly referencing the person.
  • Put him on Permanent Ignore.



Did you just post a copilot / AI response on understanding and strategies for responding to JR?

HAH, did it start the response with: "Sure I am happy summarize reasons and strategies for this question, and let me tell you, you're not the first to ask... "
Thee tinfoil hat couch-potato prognosticator, not a bible school preacher.


Porteroso
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Assassin said:

Porteroso said:

Assassin said:

Porteroso said:

TinFoilHatPreacherBear said:

Porteroso said:

TinFoilHatPreacherBear said:

boognish_bear said:

Are we still trying to reshore jobs to America if we are backing down on the tariffs?


We aren't backing down on the tariffs. Significant tariffs are still on the books.

Incredibly high tariffs was never the plan outside of resetting trade negotiations.

You know this. TDSers lie just about everything Trump related.


Going from 145% to 30% is not ramping up, it is not holding even, it is backing down. Don't do too many mental gymnastics trying to defend every little thing Trump does.
You're so used to lying for progressives out of hate for Trump, that you're probably not even intellectually honest with yourself. You don't even know what you think anymore, because only an idiot would say what you just said.


We dropped the tariff rate from 145% to 30% and you want to die on the hill of "we aren't backing down on the tariffs." Somehow implicitly spinning it as intellectual honesty. Oh my god you are a hoot!
Porter, at some point, you are going to have to give Trump credit for a brilliant job with the tariffs, the economy and all the other economic issues. Biden left the country in shambles. Trump is not only fixing it, but making it much better.

The economy was simply not in shambles. That's just what Trump needed to say to get elected. Inflation was already coming down when Trump took office, and inflation readings tend to lag up to 6 months behind the root cause or impetus.

I will absolutely not give Trump credit yet, because he can really screw this up still. I will give all the credit if it succeeds, but I disagree with the premise of the Executive Branch seizing emergency and wartime powers during peace to allow one person the ability to declare economic war on the entire free world in order to reshape the economy the way that one person sees fit.

The ability to declare war, either economic (tariffs) or violent, was expressly given to Congress. Congress may have delegated some of that power during the Cold War, and may be reluctant to take it back in the current political climate, but anyone who believes in separation of powers, limited government, and the fundamentally good system designed by the Constitution, does not want this precedent set. It is in my opinion, illegal amounts of power being irresponsibly wielded.

All that said, as poor as the plan was until Bessent stepped in for damage control, it could absolutely work for the benefit of America. Congress is largely shackled into inaction on this issue, immigration too. Only someone like Trump would even be able to try it.
Remember that the numbers for the Biden economy keep getting revised as there was a lot of fluff (aka BS) in them.

There were also warning signs in more detailed data that conditions were not as robust at the end of former President Biden's term as the headline numbers imply.
  • Manufacturing was in an ongoing slump, with output contracting on a year-on-year basis every month from July to December. The Institute for Supply Management survey of manufacturers came in at 49.3 in December, just below the level of 50 that is the line between expansion and contraction.
  • The job market was stuck in place, with companies not firing many workers but also not doing much hiring. The rate at which employers hired in December was 3.4%; it was higher than that in every single month from March 2014 to February 2020.
  • Strong overall job growth in 2024 masked that it was disproportionately coming from sectors less tied to the overall business cycle, particularly state and local government and health care.
  • The professional and business services sector experienced year-over-year job losses every month since September 2023, and manufacturing since October 2023.


There are always numbers being revised.

I'm curious, are you going to address the part of my post that deals with limited government, separation of powers, Constitutional authority?
Assassin
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Porteroso said:

Assassin said:

Porteroso said:

Assassin said:

Porteroso said:

TinFoilHatPreacherBear said:

Porteroso said:

TinFoilHatPreacherBear said:

boognish_bear said:

Are we still trying to reshore jobs to America if we are backing down on the tariffs?


We aren't backing down on the tariffs. Significant tariffs are still on the books.

Incredibly high tariffs was never the plan outside of resetting trade negotiations.

You know this. TDSers lie just about everything Trump related.


Going from 145% to 30% is not ramping up, it is not holding even, it is backing down. Don't do too many mental gymnastics trying to defend every little thing Trump does.
You're so used to lying for progressives out of hate for Trump, that you're probably not even intellectually honest with yourself. You don't even know what you think anymore, because only an idiot would say what you just said.


We dropped the tariff rate from 145% to 30% and you want to die on the hill of "we aren't backing down on the tariffs." Somehow implicitly spinning it as intellectual honesty. Oh my god you are a hoot!
Porter, at some point, you are going to have to give Trump credit for a brilliant job with the tariffs, the economy and all the other economic issues. Biden left the country in shambles. Trump is not only fixing it, but making it much better.

The economy was simply not in shambles. That's just what Trump needed to say to get elected. Inflation was already coming down when Trump took office, and inflation readings tend to lag up to 6 months behind the root cause or impetus.

I will absolutely not give Trump credit yet, because he can really screw this up still. I will give all the credit if it succeeds, but I disagree with the premise of the Executive Branch seizing emergency and wartime powers during peace to allow one person the ability to declare economic war on the entire free world in order to reshape the economy the way that one person sees fit.

The ability to declare war, either economic (tariffs) or violent, was expressly given to Congress. Congress may have delegated some of that power during the Cold War, and may be reluctant to take it back in the current political climate, but anyone who believes in separation of powers, limited government, and the fundamentally good system designed by the Constitution, does not want this precedent set. It is in my opinion, illegal amounts of power being irresponsibly wielded.

All that said, as poor as the plan was until Bessent stepped in for damage control, it could absolutely work for the benefit of America. Congress is largely shackled into inaction on this issue, immigration too. Only someone like Trump would even be able to try it.
Remember that the numbers for the Biden economy keep getting revised as there was a lot of fluff (aka BS) in them.

There were also warning signs in more detailed data that conditions were not as robust at the end of former President Biden's term as the headline numbers imply.
  • Manufacturing was in an ongoing slump, with output contracting on a year-on-year basis every month from July to December. The Institute for Supply Management survey of manufacturers came in at 49.3 in December, just below the level of 50 that is the line between expansion and contraction.
  • The job market was stuck in place, with companies not firing many workers but also not doing much hiring. The rate at which employers hired in December was 3.4%; it was higher than that in every single month from March 2014 to February 2020.
  • Strong overall job growth in 2024 masked that it was disproportionately coming from sectors less tied to the overall business cycle, particularly state and local government and health care.
  • The professional and business services sector experienced year-over-year job losses every month since September 2023, and manufacturing since October 2023.


There are always numbers being revised.

I'm curious, are you going to address the part of my post that deals with limited government, separation of powers, Constitutional authority?
Addressing your comment about the Biden economy. The numbers were fudged. As for the other stuff,. you can argue with the folks that know it better than I.
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KaiBear
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LIB,MR BEARS said:

KaiBear said:

LIB,MR BEARS said:

boognish_bear said:



Or another way to word it…

"US inflation fell to 2.3% in April, the lowest since 2021"
Cant be true....must be still another 'Trump lie'.

ABC did manage to provide good news by describing it using these words, "rose" and "fear" and tied it to Trump and the tariffs.
Always the ones for a negative spin


At this point only the teacher unions still pronounce ABC news to be unbiased.
Assassin
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ATL Bear
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Both China and the U.S. reduced their tariff amounts by 115 percentage points. It's a coordinated dance that says either both caved or both took a step back to further negotiate. And the U.S. under Trump and Biden already had instilled 25-30% tariffs, and the 10% from China mostly matches what was there before on US goods and agriculture.

In other words, we're pretty much back to where we were before "liberation day" and the markets are responding as such.
LIB,MR BEARS
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ATL Bear said:

Both China and the U.S. reduced their tariff amounts by 115 percentage points. It's a coordinated dance that says either both caved or both took a step back to further negotiate. And the U.S. under Trump and Biden already had instilled 25-30% tariffs, and the 10% from China mostly matches what was there before on US goods and agriculture.

In other words, we're pretty much back to where we were before "liberation day" and the markets are responding as such.

Do you believe the negotiations will yield better trade results than what we have had in the past with China? If they do, does Trump get any credit?
Assassin
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LIB,MR BEARS said:

ATL Bear said:

Both China and the U.S. reduced their tariff amounts by 115 percentage points. It's a coordinated dance that says either both caved or both took a step back to further negotiate. And the U.S. under Trump and Biden already had instilled 25-30% tariffs, and the 10% from China mostly matches what was there before on US goods and agriculture.

In other words, we're pretty much back to where we were before "liberation day" and the markets are responding as such.

Do you believe the negotiations will yield better trade results than what we have had in the past with China? If they do, does Trump get any credit?
It's not so much the tariffs with China but all the ancillary costs they added each time they did business with American companies. We were an easy target (according to them), they had zero respect for Biden, much like what he earned in the USA
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Porteroso
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Assassin said:

Porteroso said:

Assassin said:

Porteroso said:

Assassin said:

Porteroso said:

TinFoilHatPreacherBear said:

Porteroso said:

TinFoilHatPreacherBear said:

boognish_bear said:

Are we still trying to reshore jobs to America if we are backing down on the tariffs?


We aren't backing down on the tariffs. Significant tariffs are still on the books.

Incredibly high tariffs was never the plan outside of resetting trade negotiations.

You know this. TDSers lie just about everything Trump related.


Going from 145% to 30% is not ramping up, it is not holding even, it is backing down. Don't do too many mental gymnastics trying to defend every little thing Trump does.
You're so used to lying for progressives out of hate for Trump, that you're probably not even intellectually honest with yourself. You don't even know what you think anymore, because only an idiot would say what you just said.


We dropped the tariff rate from 145% to 30% and you want to die on the hill of "we aren't backing down on the tariffs." Somehow implicitly spinning it as intellectual honesty. Oh my god you are a hoot!
Porter, at some point, you are going to have to give Trump credit for a brilliant job with the tariffs, the economy and all the other economic issues. Biden left the country in shambles. Trump is not only fixing it, but making it much better.

The economy was simply not in shambles. That's just what Trump needed to say to get elected. Inflation was already coming down when Trump took office, and inflation readings tend to lag up to 6 months behind the root cause or impetus.

I will absolutely not give Trump credit yet, because he can really screw this up still. I will give all the credit if it succeeds, but I disagree with the premise of the Executive Branch seizing emergency and wartime powers during peace to allow one person the ability to declare economic war on the entire free world in order to reshape the economy the way that one person sees fit.

The ability to declare war, either economic (tariffs) or violent, was expressly given to Congress. Congress may have delegated some of that power during the Cold War, and may be reluctant to take it back in the current political climate, but anyone who believes in separation of powers, limited government, and the fundamentally good system designed by the Constitution, does not want this precedent set. It is in my opinion, illegal amounts of power being irresponsibly wielded.

All that said, as poor as the plan was until Bessent stepped in for damage control, it could absolutely work for the benefit of America. Congress is largely shackled into inaction on this issue, immigration too. Only someone like Trump would even be able to try it.
Remember that the numbers for the Biden economy keep getting revised as there was a lot of fluff (aka BS) in them.

There were also warning signs in more detailed data that conditions were not as robust at the end of former President Biden's term as the headline numbers imply.
  • Manufacturing was in an ongoing slump, with output contracting on a year-on-year basis every month from July to December. The Institute for Supply Management survey of manufacturers came in at 49.3 in December, just below the level of 50 that is the line between expansion and contraction.
  • The job market was stuck in place, with companies not firing many workers but also not doing much hiring. The rate at which employers hired in December was 3.4%; it was higher than that in every single month from March 2014 to February 2020.
  • Strong overall job growth in 2024 masked that it was disproportionately coming from sectors less tied to the overall business cycle, particularly state and local government and health care.
  • The professional and business services sector experienced year-over-year job losses every month since September 2023, and manufacturing since October 2023.


There are always numbers being revised.

I'm curious, are you going to address the part of my post that deals with limited government, separation of powers, Constitutional authority?
Addressing your comment about the Biden economy. The numbers were fudged. As for the other stuff,. you can argue with the folks that know it better than I.

Let's say a Democrat was doing the same things with tariffs in 4 years, only instead of bringing back manufacturing, it was bringing back DEI.

Are you only going to have a problem with the DEI part, or will you say 1 person shouldn't be able yo force the entire globe to bend towards their will?

That's what is happening, and Repubs are celebrating. It is a massive expansion of power, and if you are celebrating it today, it is hypocritical to be against it tomorrow when the other side does it, but in a way you disagree with.
Assassin
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Porteroso said:

Assassin said:

Porteroso said:

Assassin said:

Porteroso said:

Assassin said:

Porteroso said:

TinFoilHatPreacherBear said:

Porteroso said:

TinFoilHatPreacherBear said:

boognish_bear said:

Are we still trying to reshore jobs to America if we are backing down on the tariffs?


We aren't backing down on the tariffs. Significant tariffs are still on the books.

Incredibly high tariffs was never the plan outside of resetting trade negotiations.

You know this. TDSers lie just about everything Trump related.


Going from 145% to 30% is not ramping up, it is not holding even, it is backing down. Don't do too many mental gymnastics trying to defend every little thing Trump does.
You're so used to lying for progressives out of hate for Trump, that you're probably not even intellectually honest with yourself. You don't even know what you think anymore, because only an idiot would say what you just said.


We dropped the tariff rate from 145% to 30% and you want to die on the hill of "we aren't backing down on the tariffs." Somehow implicitly spinning it as intellectual honesty. Oh my god you are a hoot!
Porter, at some point, you are going to have to give Trump credit for a brilliant job with the tariffs, the economy and all the other economic issues. Biden left the country in shambles. Trump is not only fixing it, but making it much better.

The economy was simply not in shambles. That's just what Trump needed to say to get elected. Inflation was already coming down when Trump took office, and inflation readings tend to lag up to 6 months behind the root cause or impetus.

I will absolutely not give Trump credit yet, because he can really screw this up still. I will give all the credit if it succeeds, but I disagree with the premise of the Executive Branch seizing emergency and wartime powers during peace to allow one person the ability to declare economic war on the entire free world in order to reshape the economy the way that one person sees fit.

The ability to declare war, either economic (tariffs) or violent, was expressly given to Congress. Congress may have delegated some of that power during the Cold War, and may be reluctant to take it back in the current political climate, but anyone who believes in separation of powers, limited government, and the fundamentally good system designed by the Constitution, does not want this precedent set. It is in my opinion, illegal amounts of power being irresponsibly wielded.

All that said, as poor as the plan was until Bessent stepped in for damage control, it could absolutely work for the benefit of America. Congress is largely shackled into inaction on this issue, immigration too. Only someone like Trump would even be able to try it.
Remember that the numbers for the Biden economy keep getting revised as there was a lot of fluff (aka BS) in them.

There were also warning signs in more detailed data that conditions were not as robust at the end of former President Biden's term as the headline numbers imply.
  • Manufacturing was in an ongoing slump, with output contracting on a year-on-year basis every month from July to December. The Institute for Supply Management survey of manufacturers came in at 49.3 in December, just below the level of 50 that is the line between expansion and contraction.
  • The job market was stuck in place, with companies not firing many workers but also not doing much hiring. The rate at which employers hired in December was 3.4%; it was higher than that in every single month from March 2014 to February 2020.
  • Strong overall job growth in 2024 masked that it was disproportionately coming from sectors less tied to the overall business cycle, particularly state and local government and health care.
  • The professional and business services sector experienced year-over-year job losses every month since September 2023, and manufacturing since October 2023.


There are always numbers being revised.

I'm curious, are you going to address the part of my post that deals with limited government, separation of powers, Constitutional authority?
Addressing your comment about the Biden economy. The numbers were fudged. As for the other stuff,. you can argue with the folks that know it better than I.

Let's say a Democrat was doing the same things with tariffs in 4 years, only instead of bringing back manufacturing, it was bringing back DEI.

Are you only going to have a problem with the DEI part, or will you say 1 person shouldn't be able yo force the entire globe to bend towards their will?

That's what is happening, and Repubs are celebrating. It is a massive expansion of power, and if you are celebrating it today, it is hypocritical to be against it tomorrow when the other side does it, but in a way you disagree with.
I would have had no issue with a Democrat doing the same thing Trump is doing with tariffs. Just think if Biden had done it? You would have a Democrat POTUS right now and the US wouldn't have suffered through those four years.

DEI and tariffs are two totally different issues, not sure if you knew that or not.
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ATL Bear
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LIB,MR BEARS said:

ATL Bear said:

Both China and the U.S. reduced their tariff amounts by 115 percentage points. It's a coordinated dance that says either both caved or both took a step back to further negotiate. And the U.S. under Trump and Biden already had instilled 25-30% tariffs, and the 10% from China mostly matches what was there before on US goods and agriculture.

In other words, we're pretty much back to where we were before "liberation day" and the markets are responding as such.

Do you believe the negotiations will yield better trade results than what we have had in the past with China? If they do, does Trump get any credit?
I can honestly say I have no idea what the outcome will be, and I'm not even sure what "better trade results" looks like to this administration. Is it a reduced trade imbalance? I believe COVID taught most of the world's companies to diversify from China, and the trends have shown that's happening. I believe that to be a strategic imperative and I'm highly confident Trump will further that objective regardless of "reshoring" outcomes. He will get credit for that. Do I think we decouple from China massively? Probably not. They are too big of a global player, even after some realignment, to avoid. And that's not all bad as mutual interests can help avoid non trade conflict.

I'm more focused on US competitiveness, and his approach to that. I know he enjoys the negotiation but American industrial policy lacks execution and direction for us to have an actual "renaissance".
boognish_bear
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Inverse Cramer meet Inverse Walz

boognish_bear
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Redbrickbear
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Oldbear83
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Prices have come down for three straight months since Trump took office, and Inflation is now at a four-year low.


https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2025/05/13/cpi-report-april-2025-tariffs-inflation-data/83584397007/


So yeah, things sucked under Biden.

Pretty much everyone knows this, not sure why you would try to sell Bidenomics now.

Assassin
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Oldbear83 said:

Prices have come down for three straight months since Trump took office, and Inflation is now at a four-year low.


https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2025/05/13/cpi-report-april-2025-tariffs-inflation-data/83584397007/


So yeah, things sucked under Biden.

Pretty much everyone knows this, not sure why you would try to sell Bidenomics now.
113 days in, imagine the next 113...
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Harrison Bergeron
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boognish_bear said:


I am old enough to remember when the media and the "experts" magically redefined recession in 2021.
Oldbear83
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Assassin said:

Oldbear83 said:

Prices have come down for three straight months since Trump took office, and Inflation is now at a four-year low.


https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2025/05/13/cpi-report-april-2025-tariffs-inflation-data/83584397007/


So yeah, things sucked under Biden.

Pretty much everyone knows this, not sure why you would try to sell Bidenomics now.
113 days in, imagine the next 113...
The TDS crowd's heads will explode like the aliens in Mars Attacks!
whiterock
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Check out who attended Trump's event in Saudi Arabia. Big move here. Think it thru......

whiterock
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boognish_bear said:

I don't know how companies plan around this uncertainty


it forces them to calculate how to avoid risk, which in this case means bring as much of your supply chain home as you can, as quickly as you can.
whiterock
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ATL Bear said:

whiterock said:

ATL Bear said:

whiterock said:


Again, you understand the argument for globalism very well, but you are blind to to the fact that it was carefully designed and implemented over decades, imputing an economic libertarianism to it....that it sprang to life on its own, just corporations engaged in free market activity building the best supply chains it can.

You are also blind to globalism's failings. It is not sustainable, at least for the USA. Trade deficits do matter. We have to give away national equity to finance them. That diminishes our long-term future.....sending ever greater amounts of rents to foreign entities, amounts which could be used to invest in our own production. And, of course, it gutted the middle class.

I mean, you are arguing that trade deficits have made us the richest and most powerful country in the world. If that were the case, all of our trade partners would have long-ago launched a trade war against us demanding that we export more to them than we buy from them.........
I can't keep disproving your same points, only for you to double down on them. You completely ignore my answers to the solutions
whiterock said:

Your arguments studiously avoid addressing what changes WE need to make to spark a 20yr transformation of our own economy.
WTH? How many times have I repeated the solutions?

And you have an antiquated understanding of the global economy. I'm frankly not even sure if you have any sense of how international commerce operates today. I'm not trying to be condescending, but how am I supposed to address something as misunderstood as this point of yours.

whiterock said:

Giving away our national equity…you are arguing that trade deficits have made us the richest and most powerful country in the world. If that were the case, all of our trade partners would have long-ago launched a trade war against us demanding that we export more to them than we buy from them.
You keep repeating this line about "selling our equity" like it's some kind of economic tragedy, but it fundamentally misunderstands how capital markets, and economic strength actually work.

The U.S. doesn't give away equity. We sell it, voluntarily, at market rates, in a system where foreign investors choose to invest here because our institutions are stable, our returns are strong, and our rule of law is unmatched. That's not a weakness, it's a feature of a high trust, high performance economy.
So then it doesn't matter if foreign interests own 100% of US stocks?
There is no consequence on the matter of who owns our federal debt, or how much?
All the rents on that capital remitted abroad and that is good for us?
Foreign interests having significant influence if not control over our wealth is good for us?
You are making an extreme argument here that flies in the face of reality.


You act like foreign capital ownership is some form of colonization. It's not. It's investment. And the returns they earn are matched or outpaced by the growth and productivity gains we unlock by using that capital to fund businesses, innovation, and expansion. If we weren't attractive to foreign investors, that would be the red flag.
Beyond the matter of balance, does that investment grow our production capacity? Do foreign investors concern themselves with the interests of the American people or the interests elsewhere?

What's more, the U.S. owns far more foreign assets (over $35 Trillion) than any country on Earth. Our multinationals generate global profits, our pension funds hold international equities, and our economy extracts value from the world, not just sells it. The Fortune 500 alone generates trillions more in annual revenue outside the United States than the total value of our imports. You want to talk about balance sheets? Ours is the envy of the world.

https://apps.bea.gov/scb/issues/2025/04-april/0425-international-investment-position.htm

And this..
whiterock said:

Everything you said about our production base limitations applied also to China in 2020. But we changed policies and a 20 year transformation of their economy began.
You can't invoke China's decades long transformation (assuming your 2020 date was a typo) as proof of concept while ignoring the obvious. China spent those decades executing massive state driven industrial policy, with strict currency controls, suppressed wages, and enormous infrastructure spending all under an authoritarian regime.
These domestic policy choices that limited the benefits of their trade surplus....not, as you suggest, an inherent trade-off feature of trade surpluses.

None of that exists here, nor would we ever invoke that! Heck, we aren't even willing to be serious about regulatory overhaul, education and skills investment, or infrastructure and industrial planning that would be required to execute the "renaissance" being promoted. Let me make a very basic point to you. Tariffs DO NOT make us competitive, and competitiveness is what we're missing. Tariffs distort consumption and production, especially in economies like ours where supply chains stretch globally and inputs are as important as outputs.
This is perhaps where you are most blind. It does not matter what kind of regulatory overhaul or education or skills or infrastructure or planning we engage in, if we simply allow our trade partners to engage in unfair trade practices to offset those things. Which is what they do. How do we know this? Look at the size and trend of our trade deficits.....res ipsa loquitur.

Now China is proving the point that a production based and not capital focused economy is overly vulnerable. Meanwhile you're advocating for us to pursue the same while simultaneously depressing demand. That's an incredibly dangerous economic conflict.
False dilemma. More production does not mean less capital.
amazing. the willful blindness. You suspend pieces of economic reality. In classical free trade, the values of currencies are supposed to rise & fall to offset trade surpluses and deficits, keeping systems in balance. Yet we have in place a system which guarantees a strong dollar no matter how large or long are US trade deficits. IS THAT SUSTAINABLE? Nope. it will fail At. Some. Point. Better to address it now, before the crisis.

Tariffs don't make us more competitive abroad. They make imports less competitive here. And when jacked to high levels, they effectively close our markets. That is a powerful tool in negotiation. We are telling our trade partners "we don't really need you. Same isn't true for you. So lets talk about the size of our deficit. How do your propose we to fix that?" (within a context of production lines starting to close down.) Yes, that is a harsh way to negotiate. But things are getting wildly out of balance and the nice way hasn't exactly had much impact.

"....supply chains stretching globally....." I addressed that in a post just above (as well as many times previously). How do global supply chains help us, AND how do they hurt us? are there any risks, tradeoffs, costs, etc....? globalism is a god to whom we shall pay homage, no matter the cost?

The globe is occupied by hundreds of sovereign powers, only a few dozen of which matter very much. Those sovereign powers have interests. They will use globalism when it suits (like we did in the Cold War). And they will curtail globalism when it suits (like we are doing now). You treat globalism as a moral imperative, a law of gravity that must be obeyed. In reality, sovereign powers create the laws of gravity in trade by executing trade agreements. Within that context, globalism isn't inherently good or bad. It's just a tool. A tool with pros & cons, advantages & tradeoffs, etc..... When it solves important problems, it's a good thing. When it quits working, you need another tool. And that's where we are now. It is just incomprehensible that you can look at where we are at this moment in time and insist that there are no problems. The trade and net investment numbers scream OUT OF WHACK. As is the case with so many things in life, success is usually about balance. And our economy is wildly out of balance. Yet, here you come to tell us that selling equity to foreign interests to finance consumption is without any negative consequences no matter how big the gaps in the numbers might yawn.

You should read Friedman's "Storm Before the Calm." He makes a well documented observation that two major cycles occur in the USA with amazing regularity - a socio-economic cycle (class oriented political realignment) of 50yrs, and an 80yr institutional cycle where structures of government & business emerge thru crisis with major restructuring/reforms. the 2020's are unique in that it is the first time in history where the two cycles converge at the same point in time. We are currently in what I have called "the post WWII order." As I've said repeatedly here.....we built the post WWII order, to deal with realities on the ground in 1945-55, with globalism as a foundation stone. It worked spectacularly well. But it has run its course. LIke any late-stage system, it tends to get less and less responsive to the old stimuluses that once worked so well. Or it just doesn't address new problems well at all (which in some cases problems are simply the tradeoffs of the system itself). Globalism is not well structured to deal with the biggest problems facing us today. Not surprisingly, it is dying. (for lack of constituents....look who's getting elected). Yet, here you sit, over and over an over singing the praises of a system which no longer well serves the interests of ordinary Americans. Globalism was perhaps the most important part of building "containment," yet it has ALSO delivered to the USA a structural and growing trade deficit that is unsustainable.

Might also read Robert Lighthizer's book "No Trade is Free." He was Reagan's lead trade negotiator, ya know and was US Trade rep in the first Trump admin. He pokes so many holes in your theories (as I have done as well....)

You are defending the most dysfunctional component of a dying order - that trade deficits don't matter....
Maintaining a strong dollar requires US trade BALANCE.
There's a lot to unpack here, but if I responded point by point, I'm sure I'd be faulted for writing a book. So I'll focus on what stands out most. You're approaching this debate with political emotion masked as economic insight. I'm sticking to the fundamentals of global economics, not Cold War nostalgia or populist slogans.

You're looking for "wins" in places we're not losing, like consumer demand (It matters enormously whether we satisfy that demand with domestic production or imports), capital inflows (it matters enormously what that capital flows TO), and innovation (we are behind in important areas), and painting strengths as vulnerabilities (we have tremendous industrial output (lol China has 12x our steel production; see Tim Cook's comments on why iPhones are not made here) and we lead the world in high end services).Your continued conflation of our fiscal deficit (a real issue) with our trade deficit (a misunderstood structural feature of a reserve currency economy) is one of the clearest indicators that this conversation keeps circling the same economic misunderstandings. Globalism has blinded you. The world is awash in surplus dollars generated by our trade deficits WHICH MAKES IT VERY VERY EASY TO FINANCE BUDGET DEFICITS. Surplus dollars fed the subprime crisis. They fed the asset bubbles we've see in our stock & real estate markets. Think P/E ratios are historically high? Think those surplus dollars abroad might have something to do with that? (of course they do.....)

But let's be clear, maintaining a strong dollar does not require a balanced trade ledger. That's 80's textbook thinking applied to a post textbook reality. The U.S. dollar holds reserve currency status because of our unmatched capital markets, rule of law, geopolitical power, and economic scale, not because we run trade surpluses.
Geez, dude. The USD is a reserve currency because it was established as such in Bretton Woods. It has remained such for the reasons you cite. And. The only threat to it remaining so is structural, upwardly spiraling TRADE DEFICITS! (your studious blindness to this dynamic is amusing).

In fact, the persistent global demand for dollars as a settlement instrument in trade and finance requires the U.S. to run a trade deficit because that's how those dollars get into the global system in the first place. (Cause effect error.) A perfectly balanced trade account would shrink the availability of global dollars (why are "global dollars" superior to "domestic dollars" that would result from a trade surplus?...they're not, unless you are trying to finance large budget deficits.) and undercut the very system you claim to want to defend. You can't both champion the dollar's supremacy and wage war against the structural mechanism that sustains it. (pls reflect on the cause effect error).

The bigger issue, the one you consistently gloss over, isn't our trade imbalance, it's our fiscal imbalance. (if you want to stop the federal budget deficit, turn off the global dollar machine that finances it.) If you want to address unsustainable trajectories, start with entitlements and structural deficits. But instead, you're fixated on a misdiagnosis of attacking trade flows as if they're responsible for everything from debt to middle-class erosion to strategic decline. That's not economics. It's deflection.
In your case, its a lack of understanding macroeconomy.

And let's spotlight one of the more glaring ironies. Your strawman about "100% foreign ownership" was beneath the level of debate you've otherwise tried to hold. Nobody is advocating for complete foreign control of U.S. assets. The strawman is yours. The 100% comment was to illustrate a point. Clearly 100% is bad. So what level do you think foreign ownership becomes harmful?

What I am saying is that foreign investment reflects confidence in our economy. Yet here you are trumpeting Trump's announcement of $8 trillion in foreign investment, touting his global "America is open for business" tour, while in the same breath suggesting foreign capital is some creeping form of destruction for our nation. So which is it? Foreign ownership of land, factories, and profit flows is fine when Trump encourages it, but equity purchases through capital markets are somehow unacceptable? C'mon now. Let's see......foreign dollars flocking to by subprime mortgage backed securities, versus foreign dollars invested herein PRODUCTION operations. Can you not see the galactic difference? And why has Trump racked up $10T in such investments in barely 5 months. Did Biden do anything like that? (no.)

Let's be honest, this isn't about economics for you. It's about scoring a narrative win. Because if it were about actual strategy, you'd acknowledge that tariffs aren't making us stronger, they're creating volatility.
Good grief. Tariffs are forcing serious trade negotiations and trade concessions. Trump hiked tariffs, markets wobbled, global supply chains adjusted, and now he's rolling them back to claim credit for the rebound. That's not strategy. That's setting the house on fire just so you can show up with a garden hose and take a victory lap. Sigh. It's negotiation. He's holding a big stick, and is wise enough to calibrate to responses rather than just pummeling people for the joy of it. But you NEED him to be a tariff monster, so when he shows he isn't you call it caving or flopping rather than thoughtfulness, deliberation, balancing competing needs, etc.....

I think we are being liberated from the dangers of the policies espoused on liberation day. (indeed, although not for the reasons you presume). I'll give Trump credit for pivoting to Bessent and the CEOs he's spoken with, and away from that idiot Navarro and trained parrot Lutnick. I care about the country and principles much more than I do the parties involved. I am hopeful he'll take the off ramp that's being provided and we'll end up with some lower tariffs from several of our key partners, and we'll avoid the huge inflation increases and the demand trap had the policies actually been applied.
If you were remotely correct, none of these people would be in Riyadh. THEY see what Trump is doing and they are not going to miss the train.

KaiBear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
whiterock said:

ATL Bear said:

whiterock said:

ATL Bear said:

whiterock said:


Again, you understand the argument for globalism very well, but you are blind to to the fact that it was carefully designed and implemented over decades, imputing an economic libertarianism to it....that it sprang to life on its own, just corporations engaged in free market activity building the best supply chains it can.

You are also blind to globalism's failings. It is not sustainable, at least for the USA. Trade deficits do matter. We have to give away national equity to finance them. That diminishes our long-term future.....sending ever greater amounts of rents to foreign entities, amounts which could be used to invest in our own production. And, of course, it gutted the middle class.

I mean, you are arguing that trade deficits have made us the richest and most powerful country in the world. If that were the case, all of our trade partners would have long-ago launched a trade war against us demanding that we export more to them than we buy from them.........
I can't keep disproving your same points, only for you to double down on them. You completely ignore my answers to the solutions
whiterock said:

Your arguments studiously avoid addressing what changes WE need to make to spark a 20yr transformation of our own economy.
WTH? How many times have I repeated the solutions?

And you have an antiquated understanding of the global economy. I'm frankly not even sure if you have any sense of how international commerce operates today. I'm not trying to be condescending, but how am I supposed to address something as misunderstood as this point of yours.

whiterock said:

Giving away our national equity…you are arguing that trade deficits have made us the richest and most powerful country in the world. If that were the case, all of our trade partners would have long-ago launched a trade war against us demanding that we export more to them than we buy from them.
You keep repeating this line about "selling our equity" like it's some kind of economic tragedy, but it fundamentally misunderstands how capital markets, and economic strength actually work.

The U.S. doesn't give away equity. We sell it, voluntarily, at market rates, in a system where foreign investors choose to invest here because our institutions are stable, our returns are strong, and our rule of law is unmatched. That's not a weakness, it's a feature of a high trust, high performance economy.
So then it doesn't matter if foreign interests own 100% of US stocks?
There is no consequence on the matter of who owns our federal debt, or how much?
All the rents on that capital remitted abroad and that is good for us?
Foreign interests having significant influence if not control over our wealth is good for us?
You are making an extreme argument here that flies in the face of reality.


You act like foreign capital ownership is some form of colonization. It's not. It's investment. And the returns they earn are matched or outpaced by the growth and productivity gains we unlock by using that capital to fund businesses, innovation, and expansion. If we weren't attractive to foreign investors, that would be the red flag.
Beyond the matter of balance, does that investment grow our production capacity? Do foreign investors concern themselves with the interests of the American people or the interests elsewhere?

What's more, the U.S. owns far more foreign assets (over $35 Trillion) than any country on Earth. Our multinationals generate global profits, our pension funds hold international equities, and our economy extracts value from the world, not just sells it. The Fortune 500 alone generates trillions more in annual revenue outside the United States than the total value of our imports. You want to talk about balance sheets? Ours is the envy of the world.

https://apps.bea.gov/scb/issues/2025/04-april/0425-international-investment-position.htm

And this..
whiterock said:

Everything you said about our production base limitations applied also to China in 2020. But we changed policies and a 20 year transformation of their economy began.
You can't invoke China's decades long transformation (assuming your 2020 date was a typo) as proof of concept while ignoring the obvious. China spent those decades executing massive state driven industrial policy, with strict currency controls, suppressed wages, and enormous infrastructure spending all under an authoritarian regime.
These domestic policy choices that limited the benefits of their trade surplus....not, as you suggest, an inherent trade-off feature of trade surpluses.

None of that exists here, nor would we ever invoke that! Heck, we aren't even willing to be serious about regulatory overhaul, education and skills investment, or infrastructure and industrial planning that would be required to execute the "renaissance" being promoted. Let me make a very basic point to you. Tariffs DO NOT make us competitive, and competitiveness is what we're missing. Tariffs distort consumption and production, especially in economies like ours where supply chains stretch globally and inputs are as important as outputs.
This is perhaps where you are most blind. It does not matter what kind of regulatory overhaul or education or skills or infrastructure or planning we engage in, if we simply allow our trade partners to engage in unfair trade practices to offset those things. Which is what they do. How do we know this? Look at the size and trend of our trade deficits.....res ipsa loquitur.

Now China is proving the point that a production based and not capital focused economy is overly vulnerable. Meanwhile you're advocating for us to pursue the same while simultaneously depressing demand. That's an incredibly dangerous economic conflict.
False dilemma. More production does not mean less capital.
amazing. the willful blindness. You suspend pieces of economic reality. In classical free trade, the values of currencies are supposed to rise & fall to offset trade surpluses and deficits, keeping systems in balance. Yet we have in place a system which guarantees a strong dollar no matter how large or long are US trade deficits. IS THAT SUSTAINABLE? Nope. it will fail At. Some. Point. Better to address it now, before the crisis.

Tariffs don't make us more competitive abroad. They make imports less competitive here. And when jacked to high levels, they effectively close our markets. That is a powerful tool in negotiation. We are telling our trade partners "we don't really need you. Same isn't true for you. So lets talk about the size of our deficit. How do your propose we to fix that?" (within a context of production lines starting to close down.) Yes, that is a harsh way to negotiate. But things are getting wildly out of balance and the nice way hasn't exactly had much impact.

"....supply chains stretching globally....." I addressed that in a post just above (as well as many times previously). How do global supply chains help us, AND how do they hurt us? are there any risks, tradeoffs, costs, etc....? globalism is a god to whom we shall pay homage, no matter the cost?

The globe is occupied by hundreds of sovereign powers, only a few dozen of which matter very much. Those sovereign powers have interests. They will use globalism when it suits (like we did in the Cold War). And they will curtail globalism when it suits (like we are doing now). You treat globalism as a moral imperative, a law of gravity that must be obeyed. In reality, sovereign powers create the laws of gravity in trade by executing trade agreements. Within that context, globalism isn't inherently good or bad. It's just a tool. A tool with pros & cons, advantages & tradeoffs, etc..... When it solves important problems, it's a good thing. When it quits working, you need another tool. And that's where we are now. It is just incomprehensible that you can look at where we are at this moment in time and insist that there are no problems. The trade and net investment numbers scream OUT OF WHACK. As is the case with so many things in life, success is usually about balance. And our economy is wildly out of balance. Yet, here you come to tell us that selling equity to foreign interests to finance consumption is without any negative consequences no matter how big the gaps in the numbers might yawn.

You should read Friedman's "Storm Before the Calm." He makes a well documented observation that two major cycles occur in the USA with amazing regularity - a socio-economic cycle (class oriented political realignment) of 50yrs, and an 80yr institutional cycle where structures of government & business emerge thru crisis with major restructuring/reforms. the 2020's are unique in that it is the first time in history where the two cycles converge at the same point in time. We are currently in what I have called "the post WWII order." As I've said repeatedly here.....we built the post WWII order, to deal with realities on the ground in 1945-55, with globalism as a foundation stone. It worked spectacularly well. But it has run its course. LIke any late-stage system, it tends to get less and less responsive to the old stimuluses that once worked so well. Or it just doesn't address new problems well at all (which in some cases problems are simply the tradeoffs of the system itself). Globalism is not well structured to deal with the biggest problems facing us today. Not surprisingly, it is dying. (for lack of constituents....look who's getting elected). Yet, here you sit, over and over an over singing the praises of a system which no longer well serves the interests of ordinary Americans. Globalism was perhaps the most important part of building "containment," yet it has ALSO delivered to the USA a structural and growing trade deficit that is unsustainable.

Might also read Robert Lighthizer's book "No Trade is Free." He was Reagan's lead trade negotiator, ya know and was US Trade rep in the first Trump admin. He pokes so many holes in your theories (as I have done as well....)

You are defending the most dysfunctional component of a dying order - that trade deficits don't matter....
Maintaining a strong dollar requires US trade BALANCE.
There's a lot to unpack here, but if I responded point by point, I'm sure I'd be faulted for writing a book. So I'll focus on what stands out most. You're approaching this debate with political emotion masked as economic insight. I'm sticking to the fundamentals of global economics, not Cold War nostalgia or populist slogans.

You're looking for "wins" in places we're not losing, like consumer demand (It matters enormously whether we satisfy that demand with domestic production or imports), capital inflows (it matters enormously what that capital flows TO), and innovation (we are behind in important areas), and painting strengths as vulnerabilities (we have tremendous industrial output (lol China has 12x our steel production; see Tim Cook's comments on why iPhones are not made here) and we lead the world in high end services).Your continued conflation of our fiscal deficit (a real issue) with our trade deficit (a misunderstood structural feature of a reserve currency economy) is one of the clearest indicators that this conversation keeps circling the same economic misunderstandings. Globalism has blinded you. The world is awash in surplus dollars generated by our trade deficits WHICH MAKES IT VERY VERY EASY TO FINANCE BUDGET DEFICITS. Surplus dollars fed the subprime crisis. They fed the asset bubbles we've see in our stock & real estate markets. Think P/E ratios are historically high? Think those surplus dollars abroad might have something to do with that? (of course they do.....)

But let's be clear, maintaining a strong dollar does not require a balanced trade ledger. That's 80's textbook thinking applied to a post textbook reality. The U.S. dollar holds reserve currency status because of our unmatched capital markets, rule of law, geopolitical power, and economic scale, not because we run trade surpluses.
Geez, dude. The USD is a reserve currency because it was established as such in Bretton Woods. It has remained such for the reasons you cite. And. The only threat to it remaining so is structural, upwardly spiraling TRADE DEFICITS! (your studious blindness to this dynamic is amusing).

In fact, the persistent global demand for dollars as a settlement instrument in trade and finance requires the U.S. to run a trade deficit because that's how those dollars get into the global system in the first place. (Cause effect error.) A perfectly balanced trade account would shrink the availability of global dollars (why are "global dollars" superior to "domestic dollars" that would result from a trade surplus?...they're not, unless you are trying to finance large budget deficits.) and undercut the very system you claim to want to defend. You can't both champion the dollar's supremacy and wage war against the structural mechanism that sustains it. (pls reflect on the cause effect error).

The bigger issue, the one you consistently gloss over, isn't our trade imbalance, it's our fiscal imbalance. (if you want to stop the federal budget deficit, turn off the global dollar machine that finances it.) If you want to address unsustainable trajectories, start with entitlements and structural deficits. But instead, you're fixated on a misdiagnosis of attacking trade flows as if they're responsible for everything from debt to middle-class erosion to strategic decline. That's not economics. It's deflection.
In your case, its a lack of understanding macroeconomy.

And let's spotlight one of the more glaring ironies. Your strawman about "100% foreign ownership" was beneath the level of debate you've otherwise tried to hold. Nobody is advocating for complete foreign control of U.S. assets. The strawman is yours. The 100% comment was to illustrate a point. Clearly 100% is bad. So what level do you think foreign ownership becomes harmful?

What I am saying is that foreign investment reflects confidence in our economy. Yet here you are trumpeting Trump's announcement of $8 trillion in foreign investment, touting his global "America is open for business" tour, while in the same breath suggesting foreign capital is some creeping form of destruction for our nation. So which is it? Foreign ownership of land, factories, and profit flows is fine when Trump encourages it, but equity purchases through capital markets are somehow unacceptable? C'mon now. Let's see......foreign dollars flocking to by subprime mortgage backed securities, versus foreign dollars invested herein PRODUCTION operations. Can you not see the galactic difference? And why has Trump racked up $10T in such investments in barely 5 months. Did Biden do anything like that? (no.)

Let's be honest, this isn't about economics for you. It's about scoring a narrative win. Because if it were about actual strategy, you'd acknowledge that tariffs aren't making us stronger, they're creating volatility.
Good grief. Tariffs are forcing serious trade negotiations and trade concessions. Trump hiked tariffs, markets wobbled, global supply chains adjusted, and now he's rolling them back to claim credit for the rebound. That's not strategy. That's setting the house on fire just so you can show up with a garden hose and take a victory lap. Sigh. It's negotiation. He's holding a big stick, and is wise enough to calibrate to responses rather than just pummeling people for the joy of it. But you NEED him to be a tariff monster, so when he shows he isn't you call it caving or flopping rather than thoughtfulness, deliberation, balancing competing needs, etc.....

I think we are being liberated from the dangers of the policies espoused on liberation day. (indeed, although not for the reasons you presume). I'll give Trump credit for pivoting to Bessent and the CEOs he's spoken with, and away from that idiot Navarro and trained parrot Lutnick. I care about the country and principles much more than I do the parties involved. I am hopeful he'll take the off ramp that's being provided and we'll end up with some lower tariffs from several of our key partners, and we'll avoid the huge inflation increases and the demand trap had the policies actually been applied.
If you were remotely correct, none of these people would be in Riyadh. THEY see what Trump is doing and they are not going to miss the train.




Very impressive gathering.

Of course the Dem hyper partisans will ignore the potential benefits to the American people.of such a confab.

And they will never admit the total impossibility of Biden or Harris generating such a meeting.
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