whiterock said:

---

If the estimate is correct, that gives an annualized GDP growth of 3.2%. That is about a full percentage point above estimates.

It would mean that nominally the economy grew by about $2 trillion in 2025 and inflation adjusted about $1 trillion.

I'm not sure how to get this… https://t.co/1HM67vS5e1

— unseen1 (@unseen1_unseen) January 8, 2026

---

let's see what actual is.

To all those who criticized my analysis of Trump's economic policies and how the economy would take off in short order , please look at the statistics below and eat crow. Who was correct? I'm waiting. I get to say "TOLD YOU SO!"

U.S. productivity just surged +4.9%. The strongest reading in nearly six years.

At the same time, labor costs fell –1.9%.

Higher output with lower costs is the holy grail: growth without inflation.

Put simply:
• Productivity jumped from ~3.3% to 4.9%
• Labor costs flipped… pic.twitter.com/SAYstGHfe9

— Quantus Insights (@QuantusInsights) January 8, 2026

boognish_bear said:

---

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Supreme Court may force President Trump to refund over $133 billion in tariff revenue. pic.twitter.com/Glx8iZmjB3

— Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) January 6, 2026

---

Let's hope not. The only people that want that are hardcore Democrat and liberals that hate Trump.

Assassin said:

---

boognish_bear said:

---

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Supreme Court may force President Trump to refund over $133 billion in tariff revenue. pic.twitter.com/Glx8iZmjB3

— Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) January 6, 2026

---

Let's hope not. The only people that want that are hardcore Democrat and liberals that hate Trump.

---

Same types who destroyed France, Germany, Sweden and Canada.

And they still can't comprehend how their desires are self destructive.

Crickets. Just as I figured. Cowards.

gtownbear said:

---

Crickets. Just as I figured. Cowards.

---

neverTrumpers never learn.

🚨 HOLY SMOKES. President Trump just cut the US trade deficit IN HALF, lowest in nearly 2 decades, CNBC is in total shock!

"Buckle up, THIS IS UNREAL. -$29.4 billion, we cut it IN HALF!"

"In March it was $136B. Now, under $30B. We haven't been that small in a long time - I… pic.twitter.com/kwVslzcCKr

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) January 8, 2026

I seem to remember so many here saying Trump's tariffs would destroy the country, prices would rise, the economy would collapse. Now how that could happen with new, more favorable trade deals, trillions in new Capital, huge corporations investing in new factories here to avoid the tariffs, and massive incentives with 100% write offs on new equipment, is beyond me. In addition the massive push for more oil and natural gas production along with faster approval for modular nuclear power plants and more deregulation at all levels, has positioned the U.S. economy to grow at a tremendous rate. Absent some unknown, the 2026 economy and market should do very, very well.

All the Trump haters can take heart in that they will benefit along with the rest of us during the big run. Trump has outsmarted most of his enemies for a long time. His policies made common sense. I love the guy.

the fear & loathing of tariffs was/is wildly irrational. They're just a tool, neither good nor bad inherently. They should be judged by what they accomplish, which in Trump's policy regime is substantially positive. We are seeing a transition toward balanced trade, which in the GDP equation is removing a negative number from the mix. So it should hardly be a surprise that the economy is responding positively.

Same can be said about trade deficits. They are not inherently good, as globalists insist. They represent a sale of equity to finance consumption. At. Some. Point......they must end. Thankfully, we are FINALLY making the correction.

El-Erian: Consumers aren't paying tariffs, they're being absorbed by exporters and importers.

I've been predicting this for a year. And caught a lot of sh*t for it from other economists 😂 https://t.co/eBz3Gwbzxn

— Peter St Onge, Ph.D. (@profstonge) January 9, 2026

whiterock said:

---

the fear & loathing of tariffs was/is wildly irrational. They're just a tool, neither good nor bad inherently. They should be judged by what they accomplish, which in Trump's policy regime is substantially positive. We are seeing a transition toward balanced trade, which in the GDP equation is removing a negative number from the mix. So it should hardly be a surprise that the economy is responding positively.

Same can be said about trade deficits. They are not inherently good, as globalists insist. They represent a sale of equity to finance consumption. At. Some. Point......they must end. Thankfully, we are FINALLY making the correction.

El-Erian: Consumers aren't paying tariffs, they're being absorbed by exporters and importers.

I've been predicting this for a year. And caught a lot of sh*t for it from other economists 😂 https://t.co/eBz3Gwbzxn

— Peter St Onge, Ph.D. (@profstonge) January 9, 2026

---

All those macro-economists here that said the taxpayer was absorbing most, it not all of the tariffs were wrong? This is kinda like the "Tariffs are taxes" thing we heard here. Even though Bessent told you quite literally that they are not.

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

the fear & loathing of tariffs was/is wildly irrational. They're just a tool, neither good nor bad inherently. They should be judged by what they accomplish, which in Trump's policy regime is substantially positive. We are seeing a transition toward balanced trade, which in the GDP equation is removing a negative number from the mix. So it should hardly be a surprise that the economy is responding positively.

Same can be said about trade deficits. They are not inherently good, as globalists insist. They represent a sale of equity to finance consumption. At. Some. Point......they must end. Thankfully, we are FINALLY making the correction.

El-Erian: Consumers aren't paying tariffs, they're being absorbed by exporters and importers.

I've been predicting this for a year. And caught a lot of sh*t for it from other economists 😂 https://t.co/eBz3Gwbzxn

— Peter St Onge, Ph.D. (@profstonge) January 9, 2026

---

The United States has actually lost manufacturing jobs since Trump took office. Also, most importers of record are American owned companies, - many of them small businesses.

But don't let the facts get in the way of a good narrative.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/jobs-manufacturing-trump-tariffs-economy/

---

if tariffs caused that, then China would have no manufacturing at all.

Assassin said:

---

whiterock said:

---

the fear & loathing of tariffs was/is wildly irrational. They're just a tool, neither good nor bad inherently. They should be judged by what they accomplish, which in Trump's policy regime is substantially positive. We are seeing a transition toward balanced trade, which in the GDP equation is removing a negative number from the mix. So it should hardly be a surprise that the economy is responding positively.

Same can be said about trade deficits. They are not inherently good, as globalists insist. They represent a sale of equity to finance consumption. At. Some. Point......they must end. Thankfully, we are FINALLY making the correction.

El-Erian: Consumers aren't paying tariffs, they're being absorbed by exporters and importers.

I've been predicting this for a year. And caught a lot of sh*t for it from other economists 😂 https://t.co/eBz3Gwbzxn

— Peter St Onge, Ph.D. (@profstonge) January 9, 2026

---

All those macro-economists here that said the taxpayer was absorbing most, it not all of the tariffs were wrong? This is kinda like the "Tariffs are taxes" thing we heard here. Even though Bessent told you quite literally that they are not.

---

Its been eaten also as pre-tariff inventory has been exhausted and continued delays of tariff implementation. 2026 will be interesting.

ATL Bear said:

---

gtownbear said:

---

I seem to remember so many here saying Trump's tariffs would destroy the country, prices would rise, the economy would collapse. Now how that could happen with new, more favorable trade deals, trillions in new Capital, huge corporations investing in new factories here to avoid the tariffs, and massive incentives with 100% write offs on new equipment, is beyond me. In addition the massive push for more oil and natural gas production along with faster approval for modular nuclear power plants and more deregulation at all levels, has positioned the U.S. economy to grow at a tremendous rate. Absent some unknown, the 2026 economy and market should do very, very well.

All the Trump haters can take heart in that they will benefit along with the rest of us during the big run. Trump has outsmarted most of his enemies for a long time. His policies made common sense. I love the guy.

---

The economy has decoupled. GDP is a macro number just measuring output, and is being driven by "whale" investment and spending. Think Government, Data Center investment, but that doesn't help the problem in the "well being" measure. Think labor market and goods costs. Fuel prices remaining low has been the primary factor keeping this thing from going completely off the rails. That and a continued kicking the can of implementing most broader tariff schemes.

Tariffs are negatively effecting the economy though. The biggest signs are an unprecedented concentration of spending in the affluent, large corporate projects, and government, as well as a global demand decline. This is a classic K shaped economic direction. It's why you have record asset values and productive output (upper arm of the K) alongside labor market woes and "affordability" challenges.

---

Thank you for an understandable view of the economy and what is happening.

FLBear5630 said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

gtownbear said:

---

I seem to remember so many here saying Trump's tariffs would destroy the country, prices would rise, the economy would collapse. Now how that could happen with new, more favorable trade deals, trillions in new Capital, huge corporations investing in new factories here to avoid the tariffs, and massive incentives with 100% write offs on new equipment, is beyond me. In addition the massive push for more oil and natural gas production along with faster approval for modular nuclear power plants and more deregulation at all levels, has positioned the U.S. economy to grow at a tremendous rate. Absent some unknown, the 2026 economy and market should do very, very well.

All the Trump haters can take heart in that they will benefit along with the rest of us during the big run. Trump has outsmarted most of his enemies for a long time. His policies made common sense. I love the guy.

---

The economy has decoupled. GDP is a macro number just measuring output, and is being driven by "whale" investment and spending. Think Government, Data Center investment, but that doesn't help the problem in the "well being" measure. Think labor market and goods costs. Fuel prices remaining low has been the primary factor keeping this thing from going completely off the rails. That and a continued kicking the can of implementing most broader tariff schemes.

Tariffs are negatively effecting the economy though. The biggest signs are an unprecedented concentration of spending in the affluent, large corporate projects, and government, as well as a global demand decline. This is a classic K shaped economic direction. It's why you have record asset values and productive output (upper arm of the K) alongside labor market woes and "affordability" challenges.

---

Thank you for an understandable view of the economy and what is happening.

---

only it's not what's happening.

🚨 BREAKING: In a STUNNING blow to the Left, it was just confirmed that manufacturing wages SURGED $1,300 in just the past year and prices for vehicles went down.

GDP up. Inflation down. Trade deficit cut in half. Mortgage rates.

WE ARE WINNING! 🇺🇸🇺🇸

pic.twitter.com/stzRhWGCEW

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) January 16, 2026

ATL Bear said:

---

whiterock said:

---

FLBear5630 said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

gtownbear said:

---

I seem to remember so many here saying Trump's tariffs would destroy the country, prices would rise, the economy would collapse. Now how that could happen with new, more favorable trade deals, trillions in new Capital, huge corporations investing in new factories here to avoid the tariffs, and massive incentives with 100% write offs on new equipment, is beyond me. In addition the massive push for more oil and natural gas production along with faster approval for modular nuclear power plants and more deregulation at all levels, has positioned the U.S. economy to grow at a tremendous rate. Absent some unknown, the 2026 economy and market should do very, very well.

All the Trump haters can take heart in that they will benefit along with the rest of us during the big run. Trump has outsmarted most of his enemies for a long time. His policies made common sense. I love the guy.

---

The economy has decoupled. GDP is a macro number just measuring output, and is being driven by "whale" investment and spending. Think Government, Data Center investment, but that doesn't help the problem in the "well being" measure. Think labor market and goods costs. Fuel prices remaining low has been the primary factor keeping this thing from going completely off the rails. That and a continued kicking the can of implementing most broader tariff schemes.

Tariffs are negatively effecting the economy though. The biggest signs are an unprecedented concentration of spending in the affluent, large corporate projects, and government, as well as a global demand decline. This is a classic K shaped economic direction. It's why you have record asset values and productive output (upper arm of the K) alongside labor market woes and "affordability" challenges.

---

Thank you for an understandable view of the economy and what is happening.

---

only it's not what's happening.

🚨 BREAKING: In a STUNNING blow to the Left, it was just confirmed that manufacturing wages SURGED $1,300 in just the past year and prices for vehicles went down.

GDP up. Inflation down. Trade deficit cut in half. Mortgage rates.

WE ARE WINNING! 🇺🇸🇺🇸

pic.twitter.com/stzRhWGCEW

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) January 16, 2026

---

I've got a bridge that's on sale for $1300 you can purchase. Cmon. This $1300 number has been out there for months and is tied to projections of the BBB manufacturing and individual tax incentives, not real data,
Every source I've checked....household income outpaced inflation in 2025, leading to the increase cited.
https://usafacts.org/answers/are-wages-keeping-up-with-inflation/country/united-states/
.
And prices on new cars has not declined. A cooling of the used car market maybe, but I'd let someone like Nein comment on that. And I'd guess once again this is a spin on the BBB incentives for American car purchases and interest tax deductions on vehicle loans.
Drive off prices are down thanks to heavy discounting at the lot.

---

you've got to let go of the copium pipe.

Your analysis is repeatedly undermined by faulty premise - that the globalism model is the best/only way to structure an economy. Reality is, globalism is perfectly suitable macroeconomic model in specific circumstances, with its own unique pros & cons. It served its purpose (to win the Cold War) but has long outlived its usefulness, to the point of pathology. If you continue to remain cramped in the notion that the old model is the only one for all time, you'll continue to be shake your fist at things you do not understand

We have a new model now. We're not going back. And we're going to be much the better for it.

Tariff revenue seemingly plateaued. $27.9bn for December, down from the low 30s.

Porteroso said:

---

Tariff revenue seemingly plateaued. $27.9bn for December, down from the low 30s.

---

One month doesn't mean much. Look at the trend line. (which should track with GDP).

This should get better next year as inflows of trade deal monies accelerate and BBB kicks in

5.3% growth while cutting 2 million government workers and illegals 🤯 https://t.co/t60GYSQzKk

— Peter St Onge, Ph.D. (@profstonge) January 18, 2026

whiterock said:

---

This should get better next year as inflows of trade deal monies accelerate and BBB kicks in

5.3% growth while cutting 2 million government workers and illegals 🤯 https://t.co/t60GYSQzKk

— Peter St Onge, Ph.D. (@profstonge) January 18, 2026

---

Should start seeing the debt at least stop going up or at least slow. Do you have any info on that? (Serious question, 5% growth is outstanding)

ATL Bear said:

---

whiterock said:

---

FLBear5630 said:

---

ATL Bear said:

---

gtownbear said:

---

I seem to remember so many here saying Trump's tariffs would destroy the country, prices would rise, the economy would collapse. Now how that could happen with new, more favorable trade deals, trillions in new Capital, huge corporations investing in new factories here to avoid the tariffs, and massive incentives with 100% write offs on new equipment, is beyond me. In addition the massive push for more oil and natural gas production along with faster approval for modular nuclear power plants and more deregulation at all levels, has positioned the U.S. economy to grow at a tremendous rate. Absent some unknown, the 2026 economy and market should do very, very well.

All the Trump haters can take heart in that they will benefit along with the rest of us during the big run. Trump has outsmarted most of his enemies for a long time. His policies made common sense. I love the guy.

---

The economy has decoupled. GDP is a macro number just measuring output, and is being driven by "whale" investment and spending. Think Government, Data Center investment, but that doesn't help the problem in the "well being" measure. Think labor market and goods costs. Fuel prices remaining low has been the primary factor keeping this thing from going completely off the rails. That and a continued kicking the can of implementing most broader tariff schemes.

Tariffs are negatively effecting the economy though. The biggest signs are an unprecedented concentration of spending in the affluent, large corporate projects, and government, as well as a global demand decline. This is a classic K shaped economic direction. It's why you have record asset values and productive output (upper arm of the K) alongside labor market woes and "affordability" challenges.

---

Thank you for an understandable view of the economy and what is happening.

---

only it's not what's happening.

🚨 BREAKING: In a STUNNING blow to the Left, it was just confirmed that manufacturing wages SURGED $1,300 in just the past year and prices for vehicles went down.

GDP up. Inflation down. Trade deficit cut in half. Mortgage rates.

WE ARE WINNING! 🇺🇸🇺🇸

pic.twitter.com/stzRhWGCEW

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) January 16, 2026

---

I've got a bridge that's on sale for $1300 you can purchase. Cmon. This $1300 number has been out there for months and is tied to projections of the BBB manufacturing and individual tax incentives, not real data,

And prices on new cars has not declined. A cooling of the used car market maybe, but I'd let someone like Nein comment on that. And I'd guess once again this is a spin on the BBB incentives for American car purchases and interest tax deductions on vehicle loans.

---

The price of cars is declining but it's because manufacturers can't unload their EVs. I believe EV prices have been drastically cut so dealers can get them off of their lots. Also Nov, Dec, Jan is when dealers clear out the 25s at discounted prices to make room for the 26s and even some 27s that come out in early spring.

whiterock said:

---

Porteroso said:

---

Tariff revenue seemingly plateaued. $27.9bn for December, down from the low 30s.

---

One month doesn't mean much. Look at the trend line. (which should track with GDP).

---

Also Trump relaxed some of the tariffs. That probably had a bit to do with it

FLBear5630 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

This should get better next year as inflows of trade deal monies accelerate and BBB kicks in

5.3% growth while cutting 2 million government workers and illegals 🤯 https://t.co/t60GYSQzKk

— Peter St Onge, Ph.D. (@profstonge) January 18, 2026

---

Should start seeing the debt at least stop going up or at least slow. Do you have any info on that? (Serious question, 5% growth is outstanding)

---

.

The debt will continue to grow as long as annual deficits exceed annual debt retirement.

Bessent has been quite explicit that the primary goal is to grow the economy faster than the debt (to move balance sheet ratios in a favorable direction). The ratios have been heading the wrong direction for a long, long time.

Assassin said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Porteroso said:

---

Tariff revenue seemingly plateaued. $27.9bn for December, down from the low 30s.

---

One month doesn't mean much. Look at the trend line. (which should track with GDP).

---

Also Trump relaxed some of the tariffs. That probably had a bit to do with it

---

….and, of course, the better the trade balance gets, the harder it will be to sustain tariff revenue.

Every time production is moved here to make previously imported goods, the tariff revenue on those goods is lost.

whiterock said:

---

Assassin said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Porteroso said:

---

Tariff revenue seemingly plateaued. $27.9bn for December, down from the low 30s.

---

One month doesn't mean much. Look at the trend line. (which should track with GDP).

---

Also Trump relaxed some of the tariffs. That probably had a bit to do with it

---

….and, of course, the better the trade balance gets, the harder it will be to sustain tariff revenue.

Every time production is moved here to make previously imported goods, the tariff revenue on those goods is replaced with income tax, sales tax, and various fees.

---

FIFY

LIB,MR BEARS said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Assassin said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Porteroso said:

---

Tariff revenue seemingly plateaued. $27.9bn for December, down from the low 30s.

---

One month doesn't mean much. Look at the trend line. (which should track with GDP).

---

Also Trump relaxed some of the tariffs. That probably had a bit to do with it

---

….and, of course, the better the trade balance gets, the harder it will be to sustain tariff revenue.

Every time production is moved here to make previously imported goods, the tariff revenue on those goods is replaced with income tax, sales tax, and various fees.

---

FIFY

---

yep. it's how we got the income tax in the first place. our structural trade surplus made it mathematically impossible to raise enough revenue from tariffs.

FLBear5630 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Assassin said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Porteroso said:

---

Tariff revenue seemingly plateaued. $27.9bn for December, down from the low 30s.

---

One month doesn't mean much. Look at the trend line. (which should track with GDP).

---

Also Trump relaxed some of the tariffs. That probably had a bit to do with it

---

….and, of course, the better the trade balance gets, the harder it will be to sustain tariff revenue.

Every time production is moved here to make previously imported goods, the tariff revenue on those goods is lost.

---

Well, we also have policies working against each other. Alienating our trading partners is not helping and not going to make it better.
LOL we haven't alienated them. We've signed massive trade deals with them.
This Greenland crap has the EU moving closed to China and other markets. Canada has inked new deals with China. As well as stronger deals in Africa and Asia.
Posturing by a Liberal government desperately trying to look strong when it is weak. Canada is not going to become a Chinese ally. It's going to elect a Conservative government who will be quite a bit more cooperative.

"Economists expect China to continue gaining global market share this year, helped by Chinese firms setting up overseas production hubs that provide lower-tariff access to the United States and the European Union, as well as by strong demand for lower-grade chips and other electronics."

China's trade ends 2025 with record $1.2 trillion surplus despite Trump tariff jolt | Reuters

All TDS aside, we have to be careful here as a Nation. Too much too soon, we are creating what we feared. You have a stronger world share China, the EU stating it is going independent, and our traditional domestic partners looking toward China.

Are we going to conquer them all? Is that the plan?

---

but the piece' de resistance is your reference to China's record $1.2T trade surplus. That's China's overall trade balance. It's deficit with the USA was down by 28%. (huge success).

All our trade partners are investing trillions of dollars abroad. Mostly in the USA. Almost none of it in China.

Again, we see you crafting a worldview to satisfy your emotions rather than reality.

whiterock said:

---

FLBear5630 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Assassin said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Porteroso said:

---

Tariff revenue seemingly plateaued. $27.9bn for December, down from the low 30s.

---

One month doesn't mean much. Look at the trend line. (which should track with GDP).

---

Also Trump relaxed some of the tariffs. That probably had a bit to do with it

---

….and, of course, the better the trade balance gets, the harder it will be to sustain tariff revenue.

Every time production is moved here to make previously imported goods, the tariff revenue on those goods is lost.

---

Well, we also have policies working against each other. Alienating our trading partners is not helping and not going to make it better.
LOL we haven't alienated them. We've signed massive trade deals with them.
This Greenland crap has the EU moving closed to China and other markets. Canada has inked new deals with China. As well as stronger deals in Africa and Asia.
Posturing by a Liberal government desperately trying to look strong when it is weak. Canada is not going to become a Chinese ally. It's going to elect a Conservative government who will be quite a bit more cooperative.

"Economists expect China to continue gaining global market share this year, helped by Chinese firms setting up overseas production hubs that provide lower-tariff access to the United States and the European Union, as well as by strong demand for lower-grade chips and other electronics."

China's trade ends 2025 with record $1.2 trillion surplus despite Trump tariff jolt | Reuters

All TDS aside, we have to be careful here as a Nation. Too much too soon, we are creating what we feared. You have a stronger world share China, the EU stating it is going independent, and our traditional domestic partners looking toward China.

Are we going to conquer them all? Is that the plan?

---

but the piece' de resistance is your reference to China's record $1.2T trade surplus. That's China's overall trade balance. It's deficit with the USA was down by 28%. (huge success).

All our trade partners are investing trillions of dollars abroad. Mostly in the USA. Almost none of it in China.

Again, we see you crafting a worldview to satisfy your emotions rather than reality.

---

I am not crafting anything, that is why I put a source article. I also know human nature, you cannot keep beating people up, telling them they have no choice and threatening without them looking for an alternative. It may take time, but it will happen. Every time. But, that is something bullies never seem to get.

By the way, the trade deficit is down now. We caught the world by surprise, so they had no choice but to sign initial deals. That will not hold.

A more comprehensive view. Don't cherry pick to win an argument. Look at the total picture. This is a discussion, not a win or lose argument. Most disturbing to an old NeoCon is this...





Making America great again? Evaluating Trump's China strategy at the one-year mark | Brookings

FLBear5630 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

FLBear5630 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Assassin said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Porteroso said:

---

Tariff revenue seemingly plateaued. $27.9bn for December, down from the low 30s.

---

One month doesn't mean much. Look at the trend line. (which should track with GDP).

---

Also Trump relaxed some of the tariffs. That probably had a bit to do with it

---

….and, of course, the better the trade balance gets, the harder it will be to sustain tariff revenue.

Every time production is moved here to make previously imported goods, the tariff revenue on those goods is lost.

---

Well, we also have policies working against each other. Alienating our trading partners is not helping and not going to make it better.
LOL we haven't alienated them. We've signed massive trade deals with them.
This Greenland crap has the EU moving closed to China and other markets. Canada has inked new deals with China. As well as stronger deals in Africa and Asia.
Posturing by a Liberal government desperately trying to look strong when it is weak. Canada is not going to become a Chinese ally. It's going to elect a Conservative government who will be quite a bit more cooperative.

"Economists expect China to continue gaining global market share this year, helped by Chinese firms setting up overseas production hubs that provide lower-tariff access to the United States and the European Union, as well as by strong demand for lower-grade chips and other electronics."

China's trade ends 2025 with record $1.2 trillion surplus despite Trump tariff jolt | Reuters

All TDS aside, we have to be careful here as a Nation. Too much too soon, we are creating what we feared. You have a stronger world share China, the EU stating it is going independent, and our traditional domestic partners looking toward China.

Are we going to conquer them all? Is that the plan?

---

but the piece' de resistance is your reference to China's record $1.2T trade surplus. That's China's overall trade balance. It's deficit with the USA was down by 28%. (huge success).

All our trade partners are investing trillions of dollars abroad. Mostly in the USA. Almost none of it in China.

Again, we see you crafting a worldview to satisfy your emotions rather than reality.

---

I am not crafting anything, that is why I put a source article.
And it did not say what your post clamed.

I also know human nature, you cannot keep beating people up, telling them they have no choice and threatening without them looking for an alternative. It may take time, but it will happen. Every time. But, that is something bullies never seem to get.
Uh, no. Their feelings are going to conform to reality: They're going to make money and be happy because they are allied with the strongest, wealthiest country in the world.

By the way, the trade deficit is down now. We caught the world by surprise, so they had no choice but to sign initial deals. That will not hold.
So a US trade deficit is now the natural order of things?
We have no hope of ever having a trade surplus?

---

You are too sensitive to be playing this game.

whiterock said:

---

FLBear5630 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

FLBear5630 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Assassin said:

---

whiterock said:

---

Porteroso said:

---

Tariff revenue seemingly plateaued. $27.9bn for December, down from the low 30s.

---

One month doesn't mean much. Look at the trend line. (which should track with GDP).

---

Also Trump relaxed some of the tariffs. That probably had a bit to do with it

---

….and, of course, the better the trade balance gets, the harder it will be to sustain tariff revenue.

Every time production is moved here to make previously imported goods, the tariff revenue on those goods is lost.

---

Well, we also have policies working against each other. Alienating our trading partners is not helping and not going to make it better.
LOL we haven't alienated them. We've signed massive trade deals with them.
This Greenland crap has the EU moving closed to China and other markets. Canada has inked new deals with China. As well as stronger deals in Africa and Asia.
Posturing by a Liberal government desperately trying to look strong when it is weak. Canada is not going to become a Chinese ally. It's going to elect a Conservative government who will be quite a bit more cooperative.

"Economists expect China to continue gaining global market share this year, helped by Chinese firms setting up overseas production hubs that provide lower-tariff access to the United States and the European Union, as well as by strong demand for lower-grade chips and other electronics."

China's trade ends 2025 with record $1.2 trillion surplus despite Trump tariff jolt | Reuters

All TDS aside, we have to be careful here as a Nation. Too much too soon, we are creating what we feared. You have a stronger world share China, the EU stating it is going independent, and our traditional domestic partners looking toward China.

Are we going to conquer them all? Is that the plan?

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but the piece' de resistance is your reference to China's record $1.2T trade surplus. That's China's overall trade balance. It's deficit with the USA was down by 28%. (huge success).

All our trade partners are investing trillions of dollars abroad. Mostly in the USA. Almost none of it in China.

Again, we see you crafting a worldview to satisfy your emotions rather than reality.

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I am not crafting anything, that is why I put a source article.
And it did not say what your post clamed.

I also know human nature, you cannot keep beating people up, telling them they have no choice and threatening without them looking for an alternative. It may take time, but it will happen. Every time. But, that is something bullies never seem to get.
Uh, no. Their feelings are going to conform to reality: They're going to make money and be happy because they are allied with the strongest, wealthiest country in the world.

By the way, the trade deficit is down now. We caught the world by surprise, so they had no choice but to sign initial deals. That will not hold.
So a US trade deficit is now the natural order of things?
We have no hope of ever having a trade surplus?

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You are too sensitive to be playing this game.

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Game? I am not in the game. I am not part of the Trade delegation or on any international committees. I don't have a dog in the fight. My career is pretty much on the downstroke. What I am seeing is disturbing. It bothers me that people like you pick on or two metrics to benchmark and believe that is the whole picture. Also, there is gut feelings. My gut tells me we are sacrificing the forest for several trees with the whole picture.

Read the Brookings report. Don't just say Brookings doesn't count on this...

Bessent - very unlikely Supreme Court will overturn tariffs

FLBear5630 said:

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whiterock said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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whiterock said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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whiterock said:

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Assassin said:

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whiterock said:

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Porteroso said:

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Tariff revenue seemingly plateaued. $27.9bn for December, down from the low 30s.

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One month doesn't mean much. Look at the trend line. (which should track with GDP).

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Also Trump relaxed some of the tariffs. That probably had a bit to do with it

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….and, of course, the better the trade balance gets, the harder it will be to sustain tariff revenue.

Every time production is moved here to make previously imported goods, the tariff revenue on those goods is lost.

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Well, we also have policies working against each other. Alienating our trading partners is not helping and not going to make it better.
LOL we haven't alienated them. We've signed massive trade deals with them.
This Greenland crap has the EU moving closed to China and other markets. Canada has inked new deals with China. As well as stronger deals in Africa and Asia.
Posturing by a Liberal government desperately trying to look strong when it is weak. Canada is not going to become a Chinese ally. It's going to elect a Conservative government who will be quite a bit more cooperative.

"Economists expect China to continue gaining global market share this year, helped by Chinese firms setting up overseas production hubs that provide lower-tariff access to the United States and the European Union, as well as by strong demand for lower-grade chips and other electronics."

China's trade ends 2025 with record $1.2 trillion surplus despite Trump tariff jolt | Reuters

All TDS aside, we have to be careful here as a Nation. Too much too soon, we are creating what we feared. You have a stronger world share China, the EU stating it is going independent, and our traditional domestic partners looking toward China.

Are we going to conquer them all? Is that the plan?

---

but the piece' de resistance is your reference to China's record $1.2T trade surplus. That's China's overall trade balance. It's deficit with the USA was down by 28%. (huge success).

All our trade partners are investing trillions of dollars abroad. Mostly in the USA. Almost none of it in China.

Again, we see you crafting a worldview to satisfy your emotions rather than reality.

---

I am not crafting anything, that is why I put a source article.
And it did not say what your post clamed.

I also know human nature, you cannot keep beating people up, telling them they have no choice and threatening without them looking for an alternative. It may take time, but it will happen. Every time. But, that is something bullies never seem to get.
Uh, no. Their feelings are going to conform to reality: They're going to make money and be happy because they are allied with the strongest, wealthiest country in the world.

By the way, the trade deficit is down now. We caught the world by surprise, so they had no choice but to sign initial deals. That will not hold.
So a US trade deficit is now the natural order of things?
We have no hope of ever having a trade surplus?

---

You are too sensitive to be playing this game.

---

Game? I am not in the game. I am not part of the Trade delegation or on any international committees. I don't have a dog in the fight. My career is pretty much on the downstroke. What I am seeing is disturbing. It bothers me that people like you pick on or two metrics to benchmark and believe that is the whole picture. Also, there is gut feelings. My gut tells me we are sacrificing the forest for several trees with the whole picture.
LOL "cherry picking" metrics is a rather ironic statement.

Read the Brookings report. Don't just say Brookings doesn't count on this...

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Brookings is a Democrat think tank sprinkled with a small number of centrist Republicans, a center-left idea machine arguing for neoConservative and Globalist policies. Some would add it's the brainiac portion of "the swamp." It is philosophically opposed to everything Trump is doing. As are you. So it's no surprise you find their ideas compelling.