Knocking out a major ally to our worst enemies would be awesome, too

But I know it is hard to see that for all of our resident IRGC cheerleaders

EatMoreSalmon said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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So, why are we there?

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Nuclear threat. Terror threat.
Would you rather wait until Iran is a nuclear capable international terror threat?

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And what proof do we have that it is there? We obliterated it in June and they are not able to produce it. Nor, do we know where it is. When do you admit this is a Bibi stunt to get us to do their dirty work.

whiterock said:

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ATL Bear said:

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whiterock said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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The Revolutionary Guard is not exactly the military. More like internal security to keep people from being able to protest the mullahs.

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Not exactly. It would be more accurate to describe the IRGC as a conventional military unit with a specific purpose - to defend and project the islamic revolution. At home, they protect the clerics and the religious institutions; abroad, they supply, train, & lead Hizballah, Hamas, et al.... If our soldiers end up in combat anywhere in the world with Iranian soldiers, it will almost certainly be with IRGC. Artesh, by comparison is a conventional military charged with defending Iran from invasion across its borders. IRGC is the expeditionary force. Artesh apparently has no expeditionary mission at all. IRGC would actually be more analogous to our special forces units.

The true "internal security" is the Basij. Like the IRGC, it's function is focused on promoting/defending the islamic revolution at home. The police are more like the Artesh.....normal police functions: parking tickets, traffic control, law & order on crime, etc...where regime stability is not in question. Rob or defraud someone? Police come se you and take you to jail for prosecution. Your daughter shows up at a demonstration without proper islamic covering? Basij come see you and start torturing her for the infractions of dress violation and insufficient enthusiasm to the revolution (regime).

They way to pick at that structure is to go after the IRGC and Basij, and leave the military & police relatively unscathed. Latter are the only institutions with weapons and command structures to contend with the former. So you have to apply enough pressure to incentivize the Police/Artesh to act by illustrating that IRGC/Basij is the root cause of all the pressure, and that IRGC/Basij no longer have the ability to resist a challenge from Police/Artesh.

I don't think we're there yet, but it's steadily moving that direction. We've provoked IRGC to sideline the political leadership (to protect the revolution). So any collapse will now be squarely on the revolution. And Artesh & Police are relatively unscathed so far (sending the message that we do not see them as a problem).

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We took out most of the Artesh leadership in the first few weeks of this conflict. It's likely under the command and control of IRGC leaders at this point.

Perhaps that can be broken, but an escalation that involves invasion of something like Kharg Island or the sort would have their involvement.

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we took out their Defense Secretary and the Artesh Chief of Staff. Best I can determine, the rest of Artesh is relatively untouched. The list of IRGC leadership eliminated, on the other hand, is long. Same for the rest of the regime structures except for the police. Link has a chart. I've seen (but sadly not retained) larger ones which show the same thing....enormous disparity between strikes on IRGC vs Artesh. One could certainly quibble with cause-effect here, in that the IRGC commands all missile forces, ergo the imperative for counter-battery fire to eliminate Iranian launches attacking the whole region would by definition fall almost exclusively on IRGC. But the consequence is the same. IRGC command and infrastructure has been seriously degraded, while Artesh remains largely intact. implicit in my point here is that leaving Artesh intact does limited harm to our effort (since Artesh does not have much capability to project power outside Iranian borders), but does put the Artesh in position to be the only institution capable of running the country post-mullah regime. So take out the Artesh leaders who are political appointees (like the two hit so far) and leave the more professional military intact. Will need them to run the country after it's all over. And, of course, we are probably at the point where Artesh is the only remaining institution powerful enough to decide enough is enough and finish off the IRGC for us.

Notable absence of Artesh leadership among those killed; only IRGC commanders have been targeted. https://t.co/SWZo6LmolX pic.twitter.com/QkzMWcwY67

— Colby Badhwar (@ColbyBadhwar) April 7, 2026

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Hatemi was targeted but survived. However, as I noted and as the chart confirms, the top echelon of the Artesh was indeed decapitated in the initial waves. I don't believe the disparity in targeting between the IRGC and the Artesh is a choice to spare the latter, it's a reflection of the asset and control disparity.

The IRGC takes the brunt because they control the strength of the regime's military power such as the missiles, drones, and the primary air defense hubs. We aren't "sparing" the Artesh, they simply don't possess the high value targets that require immediate neutralization.

More importantly, the idea that an "intact" Artesh can act as a professional alternative to the mullahs is most likely a fallacy for the following reasons. First, under the "Fourth Successor" protocol of their mosaic defense, the command and control for Artesh units has already been folded into regional IRGC pods. An intact Artesh force is effectively just a force multiplier for the local IRGC provincial commander. Second, the Artesh lacks the independent logistics and intelligence infrastructure to operate without the IRGC's support structure. They are a conventional arm that has been surgically separated from its brain, primarily to prevent the very scenario you want to happen. Finally, by segmenting control into autonomous pods, the regime has made a unified national "coup" by the Artesh almost impossible. Even if the Tehran pod flipped, it wouldn't automatically trigger the other pods.

We will continue to punish the IRGC leadership because by the system's own design, they are the ones holding the triggers. The hope for a local uprising remains, but any overthrow from within the military would likely result in a fragmented warlord scenario rather than a clean transition to a professional military government. This is my shattered state concern.

This also plays into the difficulty of establishing negotiations as you have so many disparate power centers with conflicting objectives. It's also why I suggest exiting with a long term ceasefire to let the internal situation work itself out instead of attempting to force something that isn't survivable long term intra-Iran, and require repeat returns to resolve.

ATL Bear said:

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whiterock said:

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ATL Bear said:

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whiterock said:

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Oldbear83 said:

---

The Revolutionary Guard is not exactly the military. More like internal security to keep people from being able to protest the mullahs.

---

Not exactly. It would be more accurate to describe the IRGC as a conventional military unit with a specific purpose - to defend and project the islamic revolution. At home, they protect the clerics and the religious institutions; abroad, they supply, train, & lead Hizballah, Hamas, et al.... If our soldiers end up in combat anywhere in the world with Iranian soldiers, it will almost certainly be with IRGC. Artesh, by comparison is a conventional military charged with defending Iran from invasion across its borders. IRGC is the expeditionary force. Artesh apparently has no expeditionary mission at all. IRGC would actually be more analogous to our special forces units.

The true "internal security" is the Basij. Like the IRGC, it's function is focused on promoting/defending the islamic revolution at home. The police are more like the Artesh.....normal police functions: parking tickets, traffic control, law & order on crime, etc...where regime stability is not in question. Rob or defraud someone? Police come se you and take you to jail for prosecution. Your daughter shows up at a demonstration without proper islamic covering? Basij come see you and start torturing her for the infractions of dress violation and insufficient enthusiasm to the revolution (regime).

They way to pick at that structure is to go after the IRGC and Basij, and leave the military & police relatively unscathed. Latter are the only institutions with weapons and command structures to contend with the former. So you have to apply enough pressure to incentivize the Police/Artesh to act by illustrating that IRGC/Basij is the root cause of all the pressure, and that IRGC/Basij no longer have the ability to resist a challenge from Police/Artesh.

I don't think we're there yet, but it's steadily moving that direction. We've provoked IRGC to sideline the political leadership (to protect the revolution). So any collapse will now be squarely on the revolution. And Artesh & Police are relatively unscathed so far (sending the message that we do not see them as a problem).

---

We took out most of the Artesh leadership in the first few weeks of this conflict. It's likely under the command and control of IRGC leaders at this point.

Perhaps that can be broken, but an escalation that involves invasion of something like Kharg Island or the sort would have their involvement.

---

we took out their Defense Secretary and the Artesh Chief of Staff. Best I can determine, the rest of Artesh is relatively untouched. The list of IRGC leadership eliminated, on the other hand, is long. Same for the rest of the regime structures except for the police. Link has a chart. I've seen (but sadly not retained) larger ones which show the same thing....enormous disparity between strikes on IRGC vs Artesh. One could certainly quibble with cause-effect here, in that the IRGC commands all missile forces, ergo the imperative for counter-battery fire to eliminate Iranian launches attacking the whole region would by definition fall almost exclusively on IRGC. But the consequence is the same. IRGC command and infrastructure has been seriously degraded, while Artesh remains largely intact. implicit in my point here is that leaving Artesh intact does limited harm to our effort (since Artesh does not have much capability to project power outside Iranian borders), but does put the Artesh in position to be the only institution capable of running the country post-mullah regime. So take out the Artesh leaders who are political appointees (like the two hit so far) and leave the more professional military intact. Will need them to run the country after it's all over. And, of course, we are probably at the point where Artesh is the only remaining institution powerful enough to decide enough is enough and finish off the IRGC for us.

Notable absence of Artesh leadership among those killed; only IRGC commanders have been targeted. https://t.co/SWZo6LmolX pic.twitter.com/QkzMWcwY67

— Colby Badhwar (@ColbyBadhwar) April 7, 2026

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Hatemi was targeted but survived. However, as I noted and as the chart confirms, the top echelon of the Artesh was indeed decapitated in the initial waves.
Misread. The Iranian equivalent of the Joint Chiefs of Staff were all taken out, but they are not all Artesh. They are over Artesh AND the IRGC, all political appointees loyal to the clerics.
I don't believe the disparity in targeting between the IRGC and the Artesh is a choice to spare the latter, it's a reflection of the asset and control disparity.
I allowed for that in my cause/effect comment, and noted that it is immaterial at this juncture. Fact is, Artesh remains almost completely intact, which has enormous implications going forward = the balance of power between them and IRGC has been significantly improved to benefit Artesh.

The IRGC takes the brunt because they control the strength of the regime's military power such as the missiles, drones, and the primary air defense hubs. We aren't "sparing" the Artesh, they simply don't possess the high value targets that require immediate neutralization.
LIke I said, we can quibble about cause/effect, but the fact remains that our targeting has created exactly the situation one would need to create a credible internal threat to the IRGC - Artesh. Having spent time in that world, I can tell you it is not likely an accident.

More importantly, the idea that an "intact" Artesh can act as a professional alternative to the mullahs is most likely a fallacy for the following reasons. First, under the "Fourth Successor" protocol of their mosaic defense, the command and control for Artesh units has already been folded into regional IRGC pods. An intact Artesh force is effectively just a force multiplier for the local IRGC provincial commander. Second, the Artesh lacks the independent logistics and intelligence infrastructure to operate without the IRGC's support structure. They are a conventional arm that has been surgically separated from its brain, primarily to prevent the very scenario you want to happen. Finally, by segmenting control into autonomous pods, the regime has made a unified national "coup" by the Artesh almost impossible. Even if the Tehran pod flipped, it wouldn't automatically trigger the other pods.
you overlook and misunderstand much here. first: What is more likely, an internal faction within IRGC to say "enough" and take out the radicals?....or a security structure outside of IRGC decides to do it? (definitely the latter, a template which plays out frequently over history. Service rivalries are not a new thing). Second: the mosaic defense model is a defacto defense in depth strategy designed to insulate the system from command & control decapitation. For all the strengths it may afford, it definitely has some downsides - it effectively violates the military principle of dividing one's forces in the face of the enemy = Iran cannot now concentrate its forces at critical times & places. If any part of the military structure rebels in the capital, the mosaic structure greatly complicates reposition of forces to respond. They will have to break the mosaic structure to do so. Again, we can argue cause/effect on our targeting, but the plain fact is IRGC is dispersed and divided and highly degraded at all levels. We take out all the IRGC in Teheran & leave the Artesh intact....that entices ambitious Artesh officers to seize an obvious opportunity.

We will continue to punish the IRGC leadership because by the system's own design, they are the ones holding the triggers. The hope for a local uprising remains, but any overthrow from within the military would likely result in a fragmented warlord scenario rather than a clean transition to a professional military government. This is my shattered state concern.
Maybe. But those IRGC regional warlords are not defending an area designed to self-fund. They still need to pay their soldiers funds from the central bank. If/when that stops, the IRGC commanders will have nothing but desert sand and force of personality to hold their command together. And if events force them to converge on the capital, they will have to do so under US and Israel air supremacy (i.e. they'll get smoked if they move). We would effectively be providing air cover for the Artesh coup (i.e. if the Artesh does move on the Mullahs, we WILL be providing them air cover, and shuttling in suitcases full of cash.) Those discussions are probably happening, and the resources are probably already in place.

This also plays into the difficulty of establishing negotiations as you have so many disparate power centers with conflicting objectives. It's also why I suggest exiting with a long term ceasefire to let the internal situation work itself out instead of attempting to force something that isn't survivable long term intra-Iran, and require repeat returns to resolve.
The disparate power centers is exactly the dynamic that invites a move by the one remaining intact institution capable of taking out the IRGC - Artesh.

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It would be absolutely derelict for any power not to seek to create and be prepared to exploit the situation we currently see. You can take it the bank we have, and are. It's a textbook deal, if one knows how to read the landscape.

Porteroso said:

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Iran posted a video of their commandos boarding and seizing 2 cargo ships. We are being lied to. Not in control of this situation at all. Hadn't seen this confirmed.

Iran 🇮🇷 release video moment a container ship was seized in the Strait of Hormuz pic.twitter.com/78XLqH5V2I

— . (@LBGamestips) April 22, 2026

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Can't help but wonder who, and from what platform, shot the first part of the video.

iran lives on deceit and other assorted fakery. This video is a prime example.

PT Barnum lives on. There's a sucker born every minute.

cms186 said:

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Sleepy Donnie. I hope it sticks . Would be poetic justice for bad person.

Israeli Media Says IDF Soldiers Looting 'On A Crazy Scale' In Lebanon

While media coverage of Israel's war on Lebanon mainly focuses on the slaughter of hundreds of Lebanese civilians and destruction of entire villages, Israel Defense Forces commanders are tacitly condoning widespread looting by their troops in Lebanon, according to reporting Thursday.

Haaretz, Israel's oldest daily newspaper, interviewed a number of IDF personnel who described routine theft of items including motorcycles, televisions, paintings, sofas, and rugs from the homes and businesses of some of the more than 1 million Lebanese forcibly displaced by Israel's assault on its northern neighbor.

Israel has seized control of more than 50 villages in southern Lebanon as part of its expanding so-called "Yellow Line," with residents who cross it risking their lives. Their absence offers IDF troops the opportunity to loot with no Lebanese resistance.

The looting of civilian homes and businesses is formally known as "pillage" and is strictly prohibited under numerous Israeli and international laws and conventions. However, according to the IDF soldiers and officers interviewed by Haaretz, senior and junior commanders know about the pillaging but are not punishing offending soldiers.

"It's on a crazy scale," one soldier said. "Anyone who takes something televisions, cigarettes, tools, whatever immediately puts it in their vehicle or leaves it off to the side, not inside the army base, but it's not hidden. Everyone sees it and understands."

Soldiers interviewed said commanders' responses range from turning a blind eye to prohibiting looting but not punishing offenders. "In our unit, they don't even comment or get angry," one soldier claimed. "The battalion and brigade commanders know everything."

Worlds most moral army alert!

Kind of insane that the State Department just admitted on its website that we went to war with Iran at the request of Israel pic.twitter.com/agemXvW6Yu

— Mike Nellis (@MikeNellis) April 24, 2026

EatMoreSalmon said:

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Porteroso said:

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Iran posted a video of their commandos boarding and seizing 2 cargo ships. We are being lied to. Not in control of this situation at all. Hadn't seen this confirmed.

Iran 🇮🇷 release video moment a container ship was seized in the Strait of Hormuz pic.twitter.com/78XLqH5V2I

— . (@LBGamestips) April 22, 2026

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What happened to pots of boiling oil when defending a wall?

So a container ship was still in the water and was boarded by a crew from a fishing boat. Where was this cargo ship and why was it totally stopped with a ladder dropped for boarding?

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Good points.

Why was the ship mostly empty?

Why was the camera on board to film the soldiers coming up the ladder.

Where were they that the water was flat. No waves at all? I am not a maritime expert but I only see water that still in small lakes, completely protected bays or fake videos. Not the middle of the ocean, sea, etc.

The Iranian Foreign Ministry issued a statement that they will not be meeting with US representatives in Pakistan and that this claim by the Trump admin, also laundered through the usual media outlets by “US sources”, is a fabrication. Again. https://t.co/Tn60clwgys

— Ron Filipkowski (@RonFilipkowski) April 24, 2026

This is for the oil futures. There will be a huge gain coming.

FLBear5630 said:

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This is for the oil futures. There will be a huge gain coming.

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yep. I'm long. TACO Monday. What most folks don't understand is that everyday the straight is shut in, you can add at least a week to oil/gasoline prices. This is a numerous months and into a year or two as it stands now. Tough times coming.

boognish_bear said:

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The Iranian Foreign Ministry issued a statement that they will not be meeting with US representatives in Pakistan and that this claim by the Trump admin, also laundered through the usual media outlets by “US sources”, is a fabrication. Again. https://t.co/Tn60clwgys

— Ron Filipkowski (@RonFilipkowski) April 24, 2026

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ok,Sugar Tits!

Rep Tim Burchett again CONFIRMS high gas prices have nothing to do with the Iran War. Big Oil is taking advantage of the situation and price gouging us

“Gas prices are awful. We're being gouged by the gas companies. We get zero gas oil, excuse me, from Iran, and we're actually… pic.twitter.com/NpMjyqZJAt

— Wall Street Apes (@WallStreetApes) April 24, 2026

this guy is clueless Maggott licking Cheeto boots. How did a redneck get elected being this stupid. Viva la Maga!

boognish_bear said:

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Rep Tim Burchett again CONFIRMS high gas prices have nothing to do with the Iran War. Big Oil is taking advantage of the situation and price gouging us

“Gas prices are awful. We're being gouged by the gas companies. We get zero gas oil, excuse me, from Iran, and we're actually… pic.twitter.com/NpMjyqZJAt

— Wall Street Apes (@WallStreetApes) April 24, 2026

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Gas is going up and down with the general price of crude. Seems pretty normal. Oil is a commodity that will be sold to the highest bidder. Bid too low, get no oil. Bid too high, your refinery can't compete.

how can a guy in his position not understand that Oil is a global commodity and if people can't get enough ,the price increases. what a clown show.

J.R. said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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This is for the oil futures. There will be a huge gain coming.

---

yep. I'm long. TACO Monday. What most folks don't understand is that everyday the straight is shut in, you can add at least a week to oil/gasoline prices. This is a numerous months and into a year or two as it stands now. Tough times coming.

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Can't be true. I've been told here that all we have to do is flip a switch and everything's back to normal.

Sam Lowry said:

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J.R. said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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This is for the oil futures. There will be a huge gain coming.

---

yep. I'm long. TACO Monday. What most folks don't understand is that everyday the straight is shut in, you can add at least a week to oil/gasoline prices. This is a numerous months and into a year or two as it stands now. Tough times coming.

---

Can't be true. I've been told here that all we have to do is flip a switch and everything's back to normal.

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Those are the voices in your head, Sam.

You really should stop listening to them.

Tell it to Whiterock.

Sam Lowry said:

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Tell it to Whiterock.

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Next few posts should be fun.

yes, I too have heard Trump and Lil Petey indicate, once the straight is open, everything is back to normal. I am merely pointing out what will definately happen, not what the Cheeto Admin. tells you.

Just a few seconds in, it's obvious that the video is definitely staged or fake. Somebody was able to film a close up of the masked thugs climbing the ladder, probably the same person who opened the door and lowered the ladder.

The resident IRGC cheerleaders want it it to be authentic so badly

Sam Lowry said:

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J.R. said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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This is for the oil futures. There will be a huge gain coming.

---

yep. I'm long. TACO Monday. What most folks don't understand is that everyday the straight is shut in, you can add at least a week to oil/gasoline prices. This is a numerous months and into a year or two as it stands now. Tough times coming.

---

Can't be true. I've been told here that all we have to do is flip a switch and everything's back to normal.

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No this is for the greater good. Not only should we accept at face value, but we should be thankful that someone like Trump is doing it. Damn it Sam, thank Donald, Petey, Whiterock, DC and Old for doing this. You just aren't smart enough to understand, say thanks and be grateful.


(As the Battle Hymn of the Republic plays in the background and we are wrapping up in the flag...)

Nobody sees the timing to Epstein and MN quizzical in our sudden need to go to war with Iran?

But, they had a nuclear weapon!! How many here really believe that Iran was two weeks from creating a nuke and being able to launch it? If so, where is the nuclear material?

You really believe that they would not come to the table with it if they had it? It is under several thousand tons of rock...

This is all misdirection, with a bit of Bibi and a positive externality of making money on oil futures.

Danielsjackson114 said:

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The resident IRGC cheerleaders want it it to be authentic so badly

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You really believe this is about Iran having a nuclear weapon? If so, are we going into North Korea? Did we go into Pakistan?

We obliterated their nuclear capability in the greatest military bombing ever, the Guiness Book is about to add it to the record books.

J.R. said:

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how can a guy in his position not understand that Oil is a global commodity and if people can't get enough ,the price increases. what a clown show.

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true dis...........

- el UF

by the waze - where's is we at re:

WAR!

PA.

- UL

BID!

{ sipping War coffee }

{ eating War donuts }

Go Bears!!

cms186 said:

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Rested, Relaxed, & Ready

The never Trumpers want that image to be authentic so badly

canoso said:

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Porteroso said:

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Iran posted a video of their commandos boarding and seizing 2 cargo ships. We are being lied to. Not in control of this situation at all. Hadn't seen this confirmed.

Iran 🇮🇷 release video moment a container ship was seized in the Strait of Hormuz pic.twitter.com/78XLqH5V2I

— . (@LBGamestips) April 22, 2026

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Can't help but wonder who, and from what platform, shot the first part of the video.

iran lives on deceit and other assorted fakery. This video is a prime example.

PT Barnum lives on. There's a sucker born every minute.

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LOL mighty Iran seized an idle container ship containing no containers on a dead calm sea?

Porter couldn't spell "AI" if you spotted her the A and the I

I'd like to see a video clip showing a few seconds before and after. A still photo captures an instant, a split second. Usually it's pretty straightforward but sometimes context matters a whole lot and the exact second photographed is misleading. That especially true with propaganda and almost always true with the TDSers. And it could be a fake. The fascists do that all the time. Almost all of their attacks on Trump for 10 years were fakes based upon lies & deception.

Anyone who likes to use their brain must take such things with a grain of salt.

FLBear5630 said:

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Danielsjackson114 said:

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The resident IRGC cheerleaders want it it to be authentic so badly

---

You really believe this is about Iran having a nuclear weapon? If so, are we going into North Korea? Did we go into Pakistan?

We obliterated their nuclear capability in the greatest military bombing ever, the Guiness Book is about to add it to the record books.

---

The highlighted statement is absurd.

So, you do? What was June about? You really think the intel was so off 6 months ago after we obliterated their facility?

So, which is it?

There is no bomb (2 weeks, really?) or we didn't accomplish anything in June? It can't be both...

Finally, if there is uranium, where is it? Why hasn't it been produced, no matter what deal Donald gives them? You really think the same Nation that under Obama that agreed for 1.6 B, turned down 20B? Why? Come on think...

canoso said:

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Porteroso said:

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Iran posted a video of their commandos boarding and seizing 2 cargo ships. We are being lied to. Not in control of this situation at all. Hadn't seen this confirmed.

Iran 🇮🇷 release video moment a container ship was seized in the Strait of Hormuz pic.twitter.com/78XLqH5V2I

— . (@LBGamestips) April 22, 2026

---

Can't help but wonder who, and from what platform, shot the first part of the video.

iran lives on deceit and other assorted fakery. This video is a prime example.

PT Barnum lives on. There's a sucker born every minute.

---

Google up what drones can do these days. It's incredible. This whole production might have cost $5k in drones.

No need to out yourself as an ignoramus when you can clearly navigate the internet.