Sam Lowry said:
Frank Galvin said:
D. C. Bear said:
Frank Galvin said:
historian said:
I don't think Iran had honored any agreement in 47 years unless they thought it would advance their apocalyptic fantasies of global cataclysm.
Then you think verification is important.
Ultimately, the only verification that will finally solve the Iranian nuclear problem is the verification of the end of the Islamic Republic of Iran. From the start, however, this has not been an objective of this war. We are kicking the can down the road. Perhaps this will prevent the North Korea Seoul hostage scenario. Perhaps this will weaken the government there to the point it falls, but I don't think that is seen by experts in the administration and elsewhere as a highly likely prospect.
It is pretty clear that the experts do not believe actual regime change is likely and told Trump that. What Trump and Netanyahu were trying to accomplish is another thing entirely. I am not sure Trump really knows. Regardless, even if verification is not a failsafe, your assumptions still make it vitally important.
The problem is that the goals are incompatible. When verification works, you lose your pretext for regime change. Our solution has been to take instances of successful verification (for example, discovery of minor procedural violations by Iran) and spin them as failures. Regime change is always the objective, despite what anyone may say.
My overriding point is that verification remains important, whether we are trying to overthrow the regime or we are not. Getting solid verification procedures in place, however, is not a "win" that Trump can easily sell; therefore, I doubt it will be part of the final agreement, if there is one.
Also, while we would welcome regime change in Iran, it has not been a priority until now. Having a crusader serving as Secretary of Badass changed that calculus, I am afraid.