cowboycwr said:FLBear5630 said:Realitybites said:cowboycwr said:FLBear5630 said:cowboycwr said:Sam Lowry said:D. C. Bear said:Sam Lowry said:D. C. Bear said:FLBear5630 said:Realitybites said:
The Price Jump Is Coming: Why You Need to Stock Up on Food & Consumer Goods This Week
"Here is what I need you to understand: this ceasefire does not change anything in the analysis below. The ceasefire may already be dead. But even if it somehow survives, the damage is done:
The diesel that is already at $5.62 a gallon is already on the trucks delivering your food. The fertilizer that wasn't shipped for 40 days isn't arriving this week. The planting decisions that farmers already made shifting away from crops that need nitrogen fertilizer aren't reversing. The 40-day threshold that the United Nations warned would trigger structural crop reductions was crossed yesterday. Oil at $95 is still 43% above pre-war levels. And the physical crude that refineries already purchased at $141 per barrel is already in the pipeline.
The ceasefire announcement will make people think the crisis is over. That is exactly when you should be buying while everyone else relaxes.
If the ceasefire holds, prices come down slowly over months, not days. If it collapses and Iran's Parliament Speaker just called it "unreasonable" prices snap back to $112+ overnight. Either way, the food price increases from the last 40 days of diesel and fertilizer disruption are locked in and arriving at your grocery store in the next two to four weeks.
Read the full analysis below. Then go shopping."
Just read an interesting article from economists at Moody's, that there is no going back to what we had price-wise on oil. Well, Trump gave Musk what he wanted higher priced gas making EVs popular again. Joe Biden and AOC will be happy.
I have heard similar analysis before, and it didn't end up that way. Is there a reason that I should expect this time is different?
I must have missed that analysis. Remind me what happened the last time a regional war decimated Gulf oil production and closed the Strait of Hormuz?
Oil was supposed to run out.
You don't remember this?
When was oil supposed to run out?
Which prediction do you want?
There have been many since oil first even started to be drilled.
There were some in the early 1900s that it would run out by the 1930s.
IN the 1940s there were more predictions.
1960s
1970s
early 2000s
2020
or even within the last year.
Of course each time the date is pushed back. Like right now the "prediction" seems to be on the 2050-2060s that we will not run out but will start producing less as demand drops and this is the only thing that will prevent us from running out completely for a little while longer.
Yeah, but how are we getting it and where?
Fracking is causing geotechnical problems. We are now being told the Gulf is open. I don't want to see oil derricks off Clearwater Beach. We are now opening Alaska. It is not as simple as the supply is good. There are tradeoffs.
So you would rather run out then see an oil derrick off shore?
You would rather run out than get it from places that don't impact you?
I'd rather have oil.
I don't mind the oil derricks when I am at the beach. It actually provided interesting views. You can watch the ships that go to them, see their lights or when there are storms coming realize it because the lights can't be seen.
Anyone remember Deepwater Horizon?
The population of Grand Isle, Louisiana is about a thousand people.
The population of the Clearwater-Tampa-Saint Pete is 3.4 million, and any incident is going to see oil entering Tampa Bay through its inlets, not just washing up on the barrier islands.
I don't want to see oil rigs off Clearwater Beach any more than I want to live next to a nuclear reactor.
The real question is what do we do about complete reliance on an energy source, a significant portion of which is halfway around the world under hostile sands.
Deepwater Horizon impacted Clearwater Beach. The whole area, they found oil in the Keys.
If we have to destroy the world we live in to get oil, don't you think there is something fundamentally wrong with where we are? We are now opening Anwhar and other park areas, drilling the Gulf (DeSantis is dead set against it), fracking to the point of earthquakes and to go with the standard cancer clusters, drinking water contamination and wildlife destruction.
I agree with you that we are dependent and cold turkey is a non-starter. But, a systematic shift to other sources where we can do them is not unreasonable.
But, of course they do make for interesting land scapes at the beach there is that.
Deepwater Horizon was a horrible tragedy. But again it was one incident on one rig when there are thousands out there. All operating 365 days a year for years with no incidents. So basically a hundred thousand total days of incident free days.
So your argument is complaining about the .0001% of days.
Not really a solid argument.
That is the point, the failures are catastrophic enough you don't do them... Using your logic we can have a failure a year and still be a very low percentage. Yet destroy millions of acres.
