President Trump announces military strikes on Iran: Operation Epic Fury

350,101 Views | 5622 Replies | Last: 1 hr ago by Mitch Blood Green
boognish_bear
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Oldbear83
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FLBear: " So was the money that Obama sent back, it was Iranian money. Yet, he was ostracized by the right."

In Obama's case, he made two mistakes: He sent money w/o precondition, hoping to persuade the Iranians to negotiate further in good faith. When the Iranians did what they always do instead, this made Obama look naive (which is what the Iranians wanted) and no real deal resulted. His second mistake was sending cash, which led to a very bad optics situation.

And as you can see, even though this time we at least in theory are not releasing money unless and until specific terms are met, the President is already under attack from people looking for any reason to make such attacks.

FLBear: "Problem I have is that this accomplished nothing. There still is no proof of a "nuclear bomb" two weeks from completion. Yet when Bush went into Iraq, everyone ostracized him for the WMD not being there."

One thing about people in the Information Age - they imagine not only that they are entitled to know every last detail, including things agreed to in confidence and secret, but also that whatever online source they prefer has the complete truth and if there is any difference between what the government says and the media says, it must be the government who is wrong.

Now as for what was accomplished, we did in fact accomplish several things, including decimation of Iran's naval and air forces, and destruction of all extant nuclear development means. What was not accomplished were replacement of the regime and control of all fissionable materials. Too many people see this only in a binary win/lose condition. Conflicts in History often produced partial or debatable outcomes. It should also be understood that Trump avoided an occupation of Iran, massive troop losses, as well as expansion of the war to include new powers against the US.

Regarding the decision to attack Iran in 2025 and this year, the meat of the decision is not available to public, but given Trump's record during his first term, we can tell that something was brought to his attention which provoked the attack. After the intelligence adventures during the Bush Administration, a trick by the IC cannot be ruled out, but an actual effort by Iran to go from 'we have some enriched material' to 'we have a nuclear weapon' should not be rejected, especially given Iran's history, both over the last several decades and in recent years.


FLBear: "Trump, we are supposed to cheer? This war cost billions and accomplished nothing, worse of all it cost the US pretty much all of our political clout in Europe and a lot in Asia.

The worst thing I see, is that Europe and Asia did not follow the US and the world did not stop. That is a message resonating around the world right now. Maybe the US is NOT that needed and we can say No."


Again, there were accomplishments, but I understand how someone determined to attack the President would refuse to admit it. I disagree regarding our allies.

England in particular has proven itself hypocrite. The "special arrangement" which existed for more than a century between our two countries is effectively dead. We helped England in her darkest hours, with material and later troops and of course money. When 9/11 happened we got some pretty speeches from England and when England stood to gain from invading Iraq they did so, but against Iran our 'cousin' turned to Allah instead.

Europe has always been callow to some degree, happy to receive things from the US but never the spine to stand with us when it might cost them something.

As for political clout, ironically this will play out a bit like Thatcher's war in the Falkland Islands. In that war, Thatcher showed she was willing to go alone if needed, and her country could not be bullied by the silence of her 'allies'. Same here, if the US needs to do something and we have a leader with the spine to do it, we will carry the load as needed. The world demanded the US be their policeman for decades, it's time they learned we will use our force to protect our own interests.

It also means that we can, as you said, say 'no' to these other countries if they want us to take casualties for them in places like Somalia or Bosnia. US troops need not be at the beck and call of the UN.


FLBear: "The whole thing was and is a debacle. Israel won, they not only got us to fight Iran but now are integrated into our system, not just getting aide, but directing it."

Disagree again about 'debacle', you are looking through spite-filtered lenses again. But we do need to have a public debate about Israel. On the one hand, I fully believe in Israel's right to defend itself, and Iran has a part in the October 7 massacre to answer for. But I strongly dislike Israel taking actions which put US troops in peril, or which damage our interests.

I think frank discussion in private with Netanyahu's people should be held in the immediate future, with sharp reminders that the US is not at Israel's beck and call, and some actions by Israel would provoke a response from the US that Netanyahu would not enjoy.




FLBear: "Trump has been a disaster."

Disagree, as noted above. There is a lot more to this, but some people miss the details, and some don't want to consider the details.
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
ron.reagan
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boognish_bear said:



boognish_bear
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Harrison Bergeron
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This could be really bad situation long-term ... we've show Iran it can effectively hold the world hostage. Let's hope Saudi get's a pipeline done quicky and maybe spend some of its oil billions on a new canal.

It clearly never dawned on anyone that it was a real risk.

Until these lunatics are dead and out of power it will always be a problem.
historian
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Obama emptied piles of cash out of American banks. It did not belong to the Iranians.
303Bear
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Harrison Bergeron said:

This could be really bad situation long-term ... we've show Iran it can effectively hold the world hostage. Let's hope Saudi get's a pipeline done quicky and maybe spend some of its oil billions on a new canal.

It clearly never dawned on anyone that it was a real risk.

Until these lunatics are dead and out of power it will always be a problem.

Logistically, how are they going to build a canal that can avoid the strait? The terrain at the west side of the UAE is not good canal terrain for this.

Pipelines face similar issues, but also sheer volume limits of a pipeline. A 48 inch pipe can carry enough crude in a day to fill ~1-1.5 typical size tankers. You would need 3-4 times that, plus separate lines for NGLS and natural gas at a minimum to maintain anything near the current (pre-conflict) tanker capacity going through the strait. Then you have to build port, loading and terminalling facilities.

Even with the (very close to) slave labor available in Saudi and the Emirates, this is a 5+ year and many billions of dollars undertaking. There is some limited capacity on the east coast of the UAE now, but nowhere near enough to scale rapidly to make a choking off of the strait immaterial.
boognish_bear
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EatMoreSalmon
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Harrison Bergeron said:

This could be really bad situation long-term ... we've show Iran it can effectively hold the world hostage. Let's hope Saudi get's a pipeline done quicky and maybe spend some of its oil billions on a new canal.

It clearly never dawned on anyone that it was a real risk.

Until these lunatics are dead and out of power it will always be a problem.

This is true.

Best case scenario is that Iran does meet the requirements of the memorandum, and puts off trying for a nuclear weapon so far down the road that the mullahs are out of power by then.

Second best would be a quick Iranian disregard of the memorandum, and they get pummeled into losing all ability to control the people.

Worst case is that they start the best case scenario until most US military assets are gone from the area, then they start back to their old ways.

BTW, If the US is responsible for Israel's actions in Lebanon, then Iron is equally responsible for Hezbollah's actions in Lebanon. This will be a sticky issue for both sides. Of course the old media will not recognize the responsibility of Iran with Hezbollah activity. Propaganda push will be hard.
boognish_bear
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EatMoreSalmon
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boognish_bear said:



Syriously? Syria can't control things inside its own border. I wonder what is afoot here.
boognish_bear
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boognish_bear
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boognish_bear
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Don't know about source

boognish_bear
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boognish_bear
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Uh oh....Trump may be in jeopardy of losing the midterms in Israel

boognish_bear
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boognish_bear
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FLBear5630
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You make some fair and good points. The Thatcher one is good.
Harrison Bergeron
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Clearly the administration completely missed Iran's ability to control the Hormuz Straight.
boognish_bear
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Sam Lowry
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boognish_bear said:



Triumphantly announcing that we're back to square one.
J.R.
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historian said:

Obama emptied piles of cash out of American banks. It did not belong to the Iranians.

proof???????
RD2WINAGNBEAR86
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boognish_bear said:



Once again, the Strait of Hormuz not controlled by Iran and was open BEFORE Trump's war with Iran. He is crowing about fixing a problem that he created!

I feel like with Trump we over and over witness a college football player making a long explosive play and dropping the ball before crossing the damn goal line.
Call it a tax, the people are outraged! Call it a tariff, the people get out their checkbooks and wave their American flags!!!
Porteroso
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It will be interesting to see how badly the Iranians want this. Might just be playing for time, knowing the deal wont happen because the US cannot actually force Israel to withdraw from Lebanon.

Trump criticizing Israel is hilarious, as are his lies about the nuclear material and regime change. He's just a typical run of the mill narcissist. Only cares about himself.

To be fair to him, this is such a huge disaster that his only chance at not being a lame duck after midterms is appealing to low IQ and low information voters with enough lies that they think we just won a war with Iran and stopped them from pursuing nuclear weapons.
RD2WINAGNBEAR86
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Jack Bauer said:

Now I've seen everything





Okay Jack. I must give credit where credit is due. I would rank Donald Trump's first term as one of the best in my lifetime. This second term so far is perhaps the worst (Except for Joe Biden). The most troubling thing about this is that most of his supporters don't see the difference.
Call it a tax, the people are outraged! Call it a tariff, the people get out their checkbooks and wave their American flags!!!
boognish_bear
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boognish_bear
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boognish_bear
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boognish_bear
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Jack Bauer
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J.R.
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boognish_bear said:



It's called cutting and running. $30B. Viva la Coward/Cheeto. Looking good Donnie!
The_barBEARian
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Harrison Bergeron said:

This could be really bad situation long-term ... we've show Iran it can effectively hold the world hostage. Let's hope Saudi get's a pipeline done quicky and maybe spend some of its oil billions on a new canal.

It clearly never dawned on anyone that it was a real risk.

Until these lunatics are dead and out of power it will always be a problem.



"Israel isn't happy.

They lobbied Washington for years to attack Iran.

The US finally did it. Struck Iranian nuclear sites. Deployed the Navy. Lost American lives.

Israel's contribution? Minimal, then almost nothing. They left the US to fight alone and used the war to distract from people noticing that they were illegally taking more of Lebanon's land.

Israel now occupies 770 square miles of Lebanon. Nearly one-fifth of the country. And they have announced they're not giving it back.

They wanted the war with Iran. They didn't fight it. They used it as a cover to invade Lebanon. And now they're angry the war with Iran is ending.

What do you think about that?"
The_barBEARian
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Realitybites
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Harrison Bergeron said:

This could be really bad situation long-term ... we've show Iran it can effectively hold the world hostage. Let's hope Saudi get's a pipeline done quicky and maybe spend some of its oil billions on a new canal.

It clearly never dawned on anyone that it was a real risk.

Until these lunatics are dead and out of power it will always be a problem.


It has been clear to pretty much anyone and everyone with a decent grasp of geopolitics what Iran's situation was relative to the Strait of Hormuz. That's why no prior president, regardless of party affiliation, was dumb enough to attack Iran.

It's just that Trump, led around by Paula White and Benjamin Netanyahu, was the first guy dumb enough to prove it to the world.

He's now realized his mistake as the SPR heads to tank bottom and the world economy goes off a cliff and is trying to (admirably) reverse course. Let's see if he can, because Iran says that an IDF withdrawal from the Lebanese territory it has seized is a requirement, and Israel is saying they won't do it.

Oh, and don't put too much stock in those pipelines. Pipelines are easily destroyed by drones and missiles. Pipelines can't transport fertilizer, aluminum, or any other number of important commodities that transit Hormuz...and the "dead and out of power" you speak of would involve a full scale D-day type invasion of Iran, marching to Tehran, and occupying the country. Hegseth's bluster aside, our military is not capable of that. The Russians aren't either. The Chinese might be. But even that's not certain.
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