The_barBEARian said:

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ATL Bear said:

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whiterock said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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That tariff plan is working well. Remember, they have no choice they have to do what Trump says? Well, as several on here stated they will pay lip service until they have a choice. Nations are not figuring ways to trade with us, they are spending time and capital on getting away from us.

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Only in your mind. They cannot afford to get away from us. That's why they're investing tens of trillions of dollars HERE, to produce goods & services HERE.

Our market is the largest and best part of the world economy, roughly a quarter of the total. Our EU/G20 trade partners represent roughly a quarter (and they can't exactly "trade" with themselves). The third piece, again roughly a quarter, is China (from which the developed world has for several years broadly decoupling rather than engaging, which is no big deal given that China is not much of a consumer market). The final quarter, of course, is the "third world" which by definition is hardly a robust a consumer market.

So the true situation is that the G20 cannot hope to replace losses in the US market with gains in China and the 3rd world. So no matter how much Trump may irritate them, the plain simple math is that they'll be way better off investing here, to move more of their national production inside our tariff barriers. That's why we see so much foreign investment pouring in.

You have to let go of what you want to be and start dealing with what is.

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We became the world's largest economy because we created the world's largest consumer market. Americans buy more goods and services than anyone else on Earth. That purchasing power is what has made the U.S. indispensable to the rest of the world. Tariffs are a negative impact on that strength lowering our purchase power through higher costs.

Companies may shift some production inside tariff barriers to avoid those costs, but that is often an efficiency loss rather than an economic gain. Building a factory to avoid a tariff isn't the same thing as building one because it's the most productive place in the world.

We'll never be small enough to be ignored. We'll just dwindle away our leverage incrementally.

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I would happily sacrifice economic prosperity to reverse the cultural decay.

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It's not a binary choice.

FLBear5630 said:

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As you said originally, they have to take the deal. The tariff's caught them by surprise, probably in scope and scale.

I think you are seeing one of the first reactions to that situation. They have a deal they can live with, but will they next Tuesday? Trump is unpredictable. He may get pissed at Ottawa and change the terms, not honor them. What is going to stop him? As you said, they have no option.

You are a CEO, would you leave yourself at the whim of Trump? Where you HAVE to accept? You have to come on bended knee to cut a deal? You said it with your data centers, that if it doesn't work out we will go to another community that does. Why would you think that Ottawa, Seoul, Mexico City, Bejing, etc are different? They will play along until they can find a deal better and then switch even IF a little less profitable if more stable.

I agree on the trade deficit issue. But, I believe you are either mixing two separate issues. It is not what we did that is causing the issue, it is the how we did it. You know business loves stability. Unless you are going for a one deal kill, which is what Donald knows, you have to create a stable, respectable relationship. Both Trump and Bessent have not done that, it has been predatory. The US economy is not mergers and acquisitions...

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you are gazing the navel of your own mind, here. If Trump was as bad as you said, no one would have cut a deal with him in the first place. Everyone who did would be jumping ship already. Is that what we see? Do we see anything remotely approaching the pathology you describe? Allies in full revolt, already out the door, coalitions already formed against us...to isolate us?

No. We see absolutely nothing of the sort. In fact, we see the opposite. Allies standing firm, making the pledged investments. Economy picking up steam.

Citing a laundry list of what one posits theoretically could happen is not terribly good analysis. Fact is, our old trade relationships were not balanced. That is not sustainable. Our trade partners know that all too well.

Nothing wrong with mergers and acquisitions. Some work out as intended. Some do not. As long as the markets are sorting out winners & losers, it's all good....the way a self-correcting system is supposed to work.

JUST IN: Brent crude oil surges 6% above $75 after US revokes license that allowed Iran to sell oil. pic.twitter.com/ius1idPON5

— Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) July 7, 2026

whiterock said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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As you said originally, they have to take the deal. The tariff's caught them by surprise, probably in scope and scale.

I think you are seeing one of the first reactions to that situation. They have a deal they can live with, but will they next Tuesday? Trump is unpredictable. He may get pissed at Ottawa and change the terms, not honor them. What is going to stop him? As you said, they have no option.

You are a CEO, would you leave yourself at the whim of Trump? Where you HAVE to accept? You have to come on bended knee to cut a deal? You said it with your data centers, that if it doesn't work out we will go to another community that does. Why would you think that Ottawa, Seoul, Mexico City, Bejing, etc are different? They will play along until they can find a deal better and then switch even IF a little less profitable if more stable.

I agree on the trade deficit issue. But, I believe you are either mixing two separate issues. It is not what we did that is causing the issue, it is the how we did it. You know business loves stability. Unless you are going for a one deal kill, which is what Donald knows, you have to create a stable, respectable relationship. Both Trump and Bessent have not done that, it has been predatory. The US economy is not mergers and acquisitions...

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you are gazing the navel of your own mind, here. If Trump was as bad as you said, no one would have cut a deal with him in the first place. Everyone who did would be jumping ship already. Is that what we see? Do we see anything remotely approaching the pathology you describe? Allies in full revolt, already out the door, coalitions already formed against us...to isolate us?

No. We see absolutely nothing of the sort. In fact, we see the opposite. Allies standing firm, making the pledged investments. Economy picking up steam.

Citing a laundry list of what one posits theoretically could happen is not terribly good analysis. Fact is, our old trade relationships were not balanced. That is not sustainable. Our trade partners know that all too well.

Nothing wrong with mergers and acquisitions. Some work out as intended. Some do not. As long as the markets are sorting out winners & losers, it's all good....the way a self-correcting system is supposed to work.

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BREAKING: The US Military announces it has begun launching a series of powerful strikes against Iran.

The US says these strikes are in response to Iranian attacks on three vessels that were transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 7, 2026

How long is Fat Boy gonna get pimped? How does he define "cease fire". I kinda think is means cessation of shooting. Tear that POS MOU up. Iran knows Piggy is in over his head and are making him and us look like fools.

J.R. said:

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How long is Fat Boy gonna get pimped? How does he define "cease fire". I kinda think is means cessation of shooting. Tear that POS MOU up. Iran knows Piggy is in over his head and are making him and us look like fools.

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Your schtick became tedious some time ago. You should try out some new material.

D. C. Bear said:

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J.R. said:

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How long is Fat Boy gonna get pimped? How does he define "cease fire". I kinda think is means cessation of shooting. Tear that POS MOU up. Iran knows Piggy is in over his head and are making him and us look like fools.

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Your schtick became tedious some time ago. You should try out some new material.

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F off

boognish_bear said:

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BREAKING: The US Military announces it has begun launching a series of powerful strikes against Iran.

The US says these strikes are in response to Iranian attacks on three vessels that were transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 7, 2026

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IRGC doesn't want peace and never will. It is a shame the Iranian people couldn't mount an overthrow. A true Persian constitutional republic would be divine. They wouldn't be out to cause max chaos.

J.R. said:

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D. C. Bear said:

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J.R. said:

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How long is Fat Boy gonna get pimped? How does he define "cease fire". I kinda think is means cessation of shooting. Tear that POS MOU up. Iran knows Piggy is in over his head and are making him and us look like fools.

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Your schtick became tedious some time ago. You should try out some new material.

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F off

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That's not particularly new for you.

Now that the MOU is effectively dead, as Brett explains below, we are back to attempting to find a military solution to the SOH.

The problem is that we signed the MOU because there was no military solution & we needed the SOH open.

Our best option is to just walk away.

If… https://t.co/cKCRpVeAIb

— Joe Kent (@joekent16jan19) July 8, 2026

D. C. Bear said:

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J.R. said:

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D. C. Bear said:

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J.R. said:

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How long is Fat Boy gonna get pimped? How does he define "cease fire". I kinda think is means cessation of shooting. Tear that POS MOU up. Iran knows Piggy is in over his head and are making him and us look like fools.

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Your schtick became tedious some time ago. You should try out some new material.

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F off

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That's not particularly new for you.

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bless you grasshopper. better?

boognish_bear said:

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Now that the MOU is effectively dead, as Brett explains below, we are back to attempting to find a military solution to the SOH.

The problem is that we signed the MOU because there was no military solution & we needed the SOH open.

Our best option is to just walk away.

If… https://t.co/cKCRpVeAIb

— Joe Kent (@joekent16jan19) July 8, 2026

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Kent is jumping the gun here. The MOU isn't dead just yet. Iran will string us along for as long as it can.

Amazing they are able to do all of this with their military obliterated

— @WashingtonTribe (@WhitchDoc) July 8, 2026

That sounds like a lot of targets

U.S. forces hit over 80 targets overnight in a new round of airstrikes that came as an "immediate response" to Iran's attacks on three commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. Central Command said.https://t.co/rPnvaPHkVk

— ABC News (@ABC) July 8, 2026

EatMoreSalmon said:

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boognish_bear said:

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BREAKING: The US Military announces it has begun launching a series of powerful strikes against Iran.

The US says these strikes are in response to Iranian attacks on three vessels that were transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 7, 2026

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A true Persian constitutional republic would be divine.

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They've tried it twice. We preferred the mullahs.

EatMoreSalmon said:

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boognish_bear said:

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Now that the MOU is effectively dead, as Brett explains below, we are back to attempting to find a military solution to the SOH.

The problem is that we signed the MOU because there was no military solution & we needed the SOH open.

Our best option is to just walk away.

If… https://t.co/cKCRpVeAIb

— Joe Kent (@joekent16jan19) July 8, 2026

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Kent is jumping the gun here. The MOU isn't dead just yet. Iran will string us along for as long as it can.

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The MOU may or may not be dead. But any sort of definitive agreement is a fairy tale at this point.

Don't come back. https://t.co/w0V0KogOB7

— Daniel McAdams (@DanielLMcAdams) July 7, 2026

EatMoreSalmon said:

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boognish_bear said:

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Now that the MOU is effectively dead, as Brett explains below, we are back to attempting to find a military solution to the SOH.

The problem is that we signed the MOU because there was no military solution & we needed the SOH open.

Our best option is to just walk away.

If… https://t.co/cKCRpVeAIb

— Joe Kent (@joekent16jan19) July 8, 2026

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Kent is jumping the gun here. The MOU isn't dead just yet. Iran will string us along for as long as it can.

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MOU is not dead? They attacked 3 ships and Kuwait. We bombed 80 targets. Sure seems like it is dead. You been hanging around with Whiterock on the tariff strategy too much, unicorns and rainbows...

WAR.

FLBear5630 said:

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EatMoreSalmon said:

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boognish_bear said:

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Now that the MOU is effectively dead, as Brett explains below, we are back to attempting to find a military solution to the SOH.

The problem is that we signed the MOU because there was no military solution & we needed the SOH open.

Our best option is to just walk away.

If… https://t.co/cKCRpVeAIb

— Joe Kent (@joekent16jan19) July 8, 2026

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Kent is jumping the gun here. The MOU isn't dead just yet. Iran will string us along for as long as it can.

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MOU is not dead? They attacked 3 ships and Kuwait. We bombed 80 targets. Sure seems like it is dead. You been hanging around with Whiterock on the tariff strategy too much, unicorns and rainbows...

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we need limited modified bomb out.......

- john haig

D!

{ sipping WAR coffee }

{ eating PROPORTIONAL RESPONSE muffin }

The_barBEARian said:

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Don't come back. https://t.co/w0V0KogOB7

— Daniel McAdams (@DanielLMcAdams) July 7, 2026

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whiterock said:

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Nothing wrong with mergers and acquisitions. Some work out as intended. Some do not. As long as the markets are sorting out winners & losers, it's all good....the way a self-correcting system is supposed to work.

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The fundamental problem with M&A activity is that it reduces competition, and competition is the life blood of free market capitalism. The goal of government regulation of business is not to allow an end result where oligopoly and monopoly dominate large sectors of the economy and yet bringing about a state of "too big to fail" in order to prevent businesses from being "too small to bribe" is exactly what is happening.

william said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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EatMoreSalmon said:

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boognish_bear said:

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Now that the MOU is effectively dead, as Brett explains below, we are back to attempting to find a military solution to the SOH.

The problem is that we signed the MOU because there was no military solution & we needed the SOH open.

Our best option is to just walk away.

If… https://t.co/cKCRpVeAIb

— Joe Kent (@joekent16jan19) July 8, 2026

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Kent is jumping the gun here. The MOU isn't dead just yet. Iran will string us along for as long as it can.

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MOU is not dead? They attacked 3 ships and Kuwait. We bombed 80 targets. Sure seems like it is dead. You been hanging around with Whiterock on the tariff strategy too much, unicorns and rainbows...

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we need limited modified bomb out.......

- john haig

D!

{ sipping WAR coffee }

{ eating PROPORTIONAL RESPONSE muffin }

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We won, didn't you hear? Greatest ever. So, change that muffin for a Trump Victory Muffin (copyrighted and proceeds go to Eric Trump).

boognish_bear said:

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Amazing they are able to do all of this with their military obliterated

— @WashingtonTribe (@WhitchDoc) July 8, 2026

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We totally obliterated Iran's nuclear program in June of last year. By February of this year, they were within weeks of having a bomb.

They are amazing.

Or somebody is full of it.

FLBear5630 said:

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william said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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EatMoreSalmon said:

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boognish_bear said:

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Now that the MOU is effectively dead, as Brett explains below, we are back to attempting to find a military solution to the SOH.

The problem is that we signed the MOU because there was no military solution & we needed the SOH open.

Our best option is to just walk away.

If… https://t.co/cKCRpVeAIb

— Joe Kent (@joekent16jan19) July 8, 2026

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Kent is jumping the gun here. The MOU isn't dead just yet. Iran will string us along for as long as it can.

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MOU is not dead? They attacked 3 ships and Kuwait. We bombed 80 targets. Sure seems like it is dead. You been hanging around with Whiterock on the tariff strategy too much, unicorns and rainbows...

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we need limited modified bomb out.......

- john haig

D!

{ sipping WAR coffee }

{ eating PROPORTIONAL RESPONSE muffin }

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We won, didn't you hear? Greatest ever. So, change that muffin for a Trump Victory Muffin (copyrighted and proceeds go to Eric Trump).

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What are we, 31-0 for this war now?

This may be the most detailed explanation of the SPR and how it works that I've seen. Worth looking at.

Would also like to hear J.R.'s thoughts on the video.

fubar said:

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boognish_bear said:

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Amazing they are able to do all of this with their military obliterated

— @WashingtonTribe (@WhitchDoc) July 8, 2026

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We totally obliterated Iran's nuclear program in June of last year. By February of this year, they were within weeks of having a bomb.

They are amazing.

Or somebody is full of it.

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oh, they have one. They were gonna use it in 2 weeks time prior to us invading. Instead they plated in gold and dedicated it to Gold Jesus .

🚨 The U.S. has launched a significantly expanded wave of airstrikes on Iran that is four to five times larger than the strikes carried out 10 days ago, a U.S. official told Axios. The official said the operation is expected to continue for hours.

➤ A U.S. official told Axios… pic.twitter.com/x24Qqhfgsd

— Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) July 7, 2026

Dow futures down 1%-1.5% depending on the index, crude north of $74. BTC down 1.8%. Gold down 2.3%.

The_barBEARian said:

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Don't come back. https://t.co/w0V0KogOB7

— Daniel McAdams (@DanielLMcAdams) July 7, 2026

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Gotta build that third temple so they can upgrade from swinging chickens to sacrificing larger animals and welcome the antichrist, don't you know.

>>
CENTCOM said the US military hit more than 80 targets in the latest strikes.

The US called Iran's attacks on the commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz "a clear violation of the ceasefire."
Full statement from CENTCOM:

Quote:

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U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces completed a new round of offensive strikes against Iran, July 7, hitting over 80 targets with precision munitions as an immediate response to Iran's latest attacks on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
U.S. forces struck Iranian air defense systems, command and control networks, coastal radar sites, anti-ship missile capabilities, and more than 60 Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps small boats in and near the strait to degrade Iran's ability to continue attacking international commerce flowing through the international trade corridor.

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Hegseth is making Lloyd Austin look competent.

Realitybites said:

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This may be the most detailed explanation of the SPR and how it works that I've seen. Worth looking at.

Would also like to hear J.R.'s thoughts on the video.

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Very good information and to me is spot on as I have said we haven't seen the highs of oil. I cannot figure out the price action either. Never seen it like this. I think we are a good 6 months out.

80/3 = the new response ratio.........

D!

- el UF

From an optics standpoint, Iran attacking shipping in SOH (again) is making them look like they violated the MOA. It buys Trump political cover if he wants to do something heavy handed like take Kharg or bomb their oil infrastructure. I'm not saying he will (or should), but the cover is there.