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Iran Begins 'Retaliation' Attack On Gulf After Overnight US Launched 3rd Round Of Strikes, Following IRGC Hit On Cargo Ship"
Update 10:40pm ET.Somewhat predictably, as has been the pattern of this war - Iran is in the very early morning hours (local) launching retaliatory strikes on Arab Gulf nations, or as the Iranians say against US assets and bases in the Gulf. Per state media:
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IRAN LAUNCHES SERIES OF STRIKES AGAINST US TARGETS: PRESS TV
Last week Kuwait and Bahrain were favored targets, but there are signs that Iran - now with reports of Tehran having been hit tonight (CBS) - could begin widening its attacks to include the UAE, or even potentially the Saudis (though there have yet to be signs of this).
What's clear is that things are back to square one - with the MoU agreement clearly effectively dead, unless diplomacy gets into overdrive and both sides show some measure of restraint. But restraint is not evident currently, only a widening up the escalation ladder.
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Iran has fired 12 Ballisitc Missiles towards Muwaffaq Salti Airbase in Jordan
Reports of 3 impacts.
The reason they aimed there could be for the F-35s parked there. We shall see. I was expecting them to aim for Bahrain or Kuwait. pic.twitter.com/zfYEJmTW3a
Ryan Rozbiani (@RyanRozbiani) July 12, 2026
To recount from where we started Saturday morning, we wrote...
As for the big picture of where things stand, University of Chicago political scientist Robert Pape, who authors "
The Escalation Trap," has pointed out that that the millions of Iranians who took to the streets last week to attend the late Ayatollah's funeral demonstrate growing nationalist resolve. He explained that this only makes further escalation more likely later this summer, as public sentiment gets hardened against the US.
"The balance of military capabilities did not change over the weekend," Pape
said.
"The balance of political will shifted.
"Referencing the now unraveling ceasefire and negotiations process, Pape is predicting: "The pause appears to be
another stage in the escalation process rather than the beginning of de-escalation." "