Forest Bueller said:
Booray said:
Forest Bueller said:
Oldbear83 said:
Forest: "With absolutely no incremental step, this will not stand up in court. "
I rather cynically think that was on purpose. The court has an easy reason to kill the bill, and the politicians get to blame the courts.
Abortion is one of those issues where people often let emotions override reason, and politicians really don't want to do anything that significantly changes things, because elections.
As a result, no one wins, not the mothers who need help and support, not the fathers who have no legal standing in regard to their own children, and certainly not the babies whose lives depend on the whim of whether or not they are convenient.
Yep.
Make themselves look good to their ardent supporters knowing full well it has no chance to pass and all blame is put on the courts while the Alabama legislators hail themselves as proponents for life, who were unjustly overruled.
That is the cynical viewpoint, and as I age I look at politicians with a very cynical eye, because they have well earned it.
You guys have it backwards. The abortion rights activists drafted the bill and made the strategy calls. The politicians are doing exactly what their supporters want them to do,
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/14/us/abortion-law-alabama.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes
I agree they gave them exactly what they wanted, but they are politicians, they know full well with the provisions of, no exception for rape/incest and the added provision you can't cross the state border to have an abortion, these politicians know it has 0% chance to survive. I still feel it is a political stunt.
It is not a stunt. It is a challenge to the SCOTUS conservative majority. If abortion is not a right protected by the Constitution, that leaves very little leeway for rape/incest cases. What the activists want is the ruling that there is no constitutional right to an abortion. What all the other abortion cases give SCOTUS a chance to do is say there is a constitutional right to abortion but that a particular state's abortion laws do not unduly burden that right. The Alabama legislature under the guidance of pro-life activists, knows that rape/incest victims would be "unduly burdened" by their law; by refusing to except those victims from the law, the legislature gives SCOTUS the chance to say "burden" is no longer the issue.
My guess is that the activists correctly perceive they can eat their cake and have it too. If there are 5 justices ready to overrule
Roe v. Wade, the Alabama law forces them to pull the trigger. If not, Alabama will just pass the most draconian legislation that SCOTUS allows under the other theory. And if SCOTUS (ie John Roberts) is not willing to overturn
Roe v Wade, the activists can use Ginsberg's age as their get out the vote tool for the 2020 election.
It will be interesting to see how this develops. Everybody agrees the law is unconstitutional if
Roe is good precedent. Thus, the district court and the 11th circuit have to overturn it. Then 4 Supreme Court justices would have to vote to grant cert to hear the case. Everyone assumes Gorusch, Thomas and Alito are ready to pull the trigger. If Kavanaugh is also willing to flat out overrule
Roe, the question would be do the four of them force the Court to hear the case without knowing what Roberts will do?
If so and Roberts ends up siding with the liberals, you have probably cemented a constitutional right to abortion for about another 25 years. On the other hand, if you don't force a vote and Roberts would have sided with you, the window of opportunity may pass.
Given the age and Senate advantages the conservatives hold, my guess is that they don't grant cert and let the Alabama law die. If Trump wins a second term, the conservative block is almost certain to increase its strength. If Trump loses, its hard to see the court composition being any different than it is now, so SCOTUS can revisit an Alabama-like law then.
Outside the courthouse, however, this has a chance to be a political disaster for the GOP. People don't like abortion, but it is a fact of life. Changing it will ignite a firestorm. This is going to make the GOP's women problem much, much worse.