I have seen several comments about Red v Blue results, usually referring to death totals or deaths per capita. Was wondering how to measure a state's performance. No perfect method really, but in my mind population density is the real driver of corona risk. The more spread out you are, the easier it is to control the risk. So I measured how each state's per capita death toll ranked v. its population density rank. If a state ranked 10th in population density but 15th in per capita death toll it was 5 spots better than expected; the reverse being true if it was 5th in per capita death toll.
Here is how the states have performed to date against expectations, with states characterized as red or blue based on the affiliation of their governor (we have 25 Democrat and 25 Republican governors) Congrats to Hawaii and condolences to New Mexico.
HI +37 Blue
TN +19 Red
FL +17 Red
CA +17 Blue
NC +16 Blue
WV +15 Red
TX +13 Red
KY +11 Blue
OH +10 Red
SC +9 Red
VA +8 Blue
VT +8 Red
OR +7 Blue
WI +6 Blue
MD +4 Red
DE +4 Blue
ME +4 Blue
RI +3 Blue
UT +3 Red
PA +1 Blue
MA +1 Red
WA +1 Blue
AR +1 Red
NJ -- Blue
OK -- Red
ID --Red
MT --Blue
GA -1 Red
CT -1 Blue
WY -2 Red
AK -2 Red
MO -3 Red
AL -4 Red
IL -4 Blue
NY -5 Blue
IA -6 Red
KS -6 Blue
MI -11 Blue
SD -12 Red
ND -12 Red
IN -12 Red
NE -13 Red
MN -13 Blue
AZ -14 Red
NV -17 Blue
LA -18 Blue
MS -19 Red
CO -23 Blue
NM -25 Blue
Of the 27 states that met or bettered expectations, 15 of them had blue governors and 2 of the reds (Ohio and Maryland) imposed pretty stringent measures. On the other hand, my method does not take into account margin of victory or loss, I suspect that NY and NJ actually performed worse than the stats show. Hawaii had the natural advantage of being an island; many of the Northern Plains states suffered from meat plant outbreaks in otherwise sparsely populated areas. California and Florida took wildly different routes and ended up in the same place.
My rough take is that what the scientists have said all along is true: the virus has no respect for politics.It looks to me to be a pretty even scorecard. Of course we are not near finished yet.
Here is how the states have performed to date against expectations, with states characterized as red or blue based on the affiliation of their governor (we have 25 Democrat and 25 Republican governors) Congrats to Hawaii and condolences to New Mexico.
HI +37 Blue
TN +19 Red
FL +17 Red
CA +17 Blue
NC +16 Blue
WV +15 Red
TX +13 Red
KY +11 Blue
OH +10 Red
SC +9 Red
VA +8 Blue
VT +8 Red
OR +7 Blue
WI +6 Blue
MD +4 Red
DE +4 Blue
ME +4 Blue
RI +3 Blue
UT +3 Red
PA +1 Blue
MA +1 Red
WA +1 Blue
AR +1 Red
NJ -- Blue
OK -- Red
ID --Red
MT --Blue
GA -1 Red
CT -1 Blue
WY -2 Red
AK -2 Red
MO -3 Red
AL -4 Red
IL -4 Blue
NY -5 Blue
IA -6 Red
KS -6 Blue
MI -11 Blue
SD -12 Red
ND -12 Red
IN -12 Red
NE -13 Red
MN -13 Blue
AZ -14 Red
NV -17 Blue
LA -18 Blue
MS -19 Red
CO -23 Blue
NM -25 Blue
Of the 27 states that met or bettered expectations, 15 of them had blue governors and 2 of the reds (Ohio and Maryland) imposed pretty stringent measures. On the other hand, my method does not take into account margin of victory or loss, I suspect that NY and NJ actually performed worse than the stats show. Hawaii had the natural advantage of being an island; many of the Northern Plains states suffered from meat plant outbreaks in otherwise sparsely populated areas. California and Florida took wildly different routes and ended up in the same place.
My rough take is that what the scientists have said all along is true: the virus has no respect for politics.It looks to me to be a pretty even scorecard. Of course we are not near finished yet.