"In summary, we show that the Delta VOC in Scotland was found mainly in younger, more affluent groups. Risk of COVID-19 hospital admission was approximately doubled in those with the Delta VOC..."ATL Bear said:Have no clue what you think this is saying. It certainly isn't anything about virulence or the fact the virus is weakening.Sam Lowry said:There are many factors. Delta currently seems more prevalent in younger groups.ATL Bear said:Virulence is reflected in severe outcomes. That's not showing in the data.Sam Lowry said:Most mutations are harmful to the virus. What you're not getting is that an increase in virulence is also harmful to the virus. They tend to "weaken" against humans as they get stronger in their environment.4th and Inches said:but it is science, you dont trust science?Sam Lowry said:Yeah, no.ATL Bear said:Simply untrue and unsupported. Mutations weaken viruses because mutations are harmful to the virus the vast majority of the time. That's true in every living organism.Sam Lowry said:Viruses weaken because killing the host makes it harder for them to spread. Covid takes a long time to kill, which means deadlier variants have more time to thrive before they're selected out. Early indications are that Delta is more virulent.Canada2017 said:Why is it unlikely to be weakening ?Sam Lowry said:
Unlikely that it's weakening. Fewer deaths are good, but there can be many reasons for that.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01358-1/fulltext
Graphing A Weakening Virus
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Last: 4 yr ago by Sam Lowry
That's obviously the only thing you looked at. LOL. Oh Sam.Sam Lowry said:"In summary, we show that the Delta VOC in Scotland was found mainly in younger, more affluent groups. Risk of COVID-19 hospital admission was approximately doubled in those with the Delta VOC..."ATL Bear said:Have no clue what you think this is saying. It certainly isn't anything about virulence or the fact the virus is weakening.Sam Lowry said:There are many factors. Delta currently seems more prevalent in younger groups.ATL Bear said:Virulence is reflected in severe outcomes. That's not showing in the data.Sam Lowry said:Most mutations are harmful to the virus. What you're not getting is that an increase in virulence is also harmful to the virus. They tend to "weaken" against humans as they get stronger in their environment.4th and Inches said:but it is science, you dont trust science?Sam Lowry said:Yeah, no.ATL Bear said:Simply untrue and unsupported. Mutations weaken viruses because mutations are harmful to the virus the vast majority of the time. That's true in every living organism.Sam Lowry said:Viruses weaken because killing the host makes it harder for them to spread. Covid takes a long time to kill, which means deadlier variants have more time to thrive before they're selected out. Early indications are that Delta is more virulent.Canada2017 said:Why is it unlikely to be weakening ?Sam Lowry said:
Unlikely that it's weakening. Fewer deaths are good, but there can be many reasons for that.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01358-1/fulltext
What are you looking at?ATL Bear said:That's obviously the only thing you looked at. LOL. Oh Sam.Sam Lowry said:"In summary, we show that the Delta VOC in Scotland was found mainly in younger, more affluent groups. Risk of COVID-19 hospital admission was approximately doubled in those with the Delta VOC..."ATL Bear said:Have no clue what you think this is saying. It certainly isn't anything about virulence or the fact the virus is weakening.Sam Lowry said:There are many factors. Delta currently seems more prevalent in younger groups.ATL Bear said:Virulence is reflected in severe outcomes. That's not showing in the data.Sam Lowry said:Most mutations are harmful to the virus. What you're not getting is that an increase in virulence is also harmful to the virus. They tend to "weaken" against humans as they get stronger in their environment.4th and Inches said:but it is science, you dont trust science?Sam Lowry said:Yeah, no.ATL Bear said:Simply untrue and unsupported. Mutations weaken viruses because mutations are harmful to the virus the vast majority of the time. That's true in every living organism.Sam Lowry said:Viruses weaken because killing the host makes it harder for them to spread. Covid takes a long time to kill, which means deadlier variants have more time to thrive before they're selected out. Early indications are that Delta is more virulent.Canada2017 said:Why is it unlikely to be weakening ?Sam Lowry said:
Unlikely that it's weakening. Fewer deaths are good, but there can be many reasons for that.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01358-1/fulltext
You conflate Mind and Heart, Sam.Sam Lowry said:Your error is believing there's a conflict between science and Christ. It's the same mistake atheists often make.Mothra said:Sam Lowry said:Science and religion both have their place.Mothra said:Sam Lowry said:FIFY, and amen.Canon said:Mothra said:Sam Lowry said:No, not really.Mothra said:Sam Lowry said:Viruses weaken because killing the host makes it harder for them to spread. Covid takes a long time to kill, which means deadlier variants have more time to thrive before they're selected out. Early indications are that Delta is more virulent.Canada2017 said:Why is it unlikely to be weakening ?Sam Lowry said:
Unlikely that it's weakening. Fewer deaths are good, but there can be many reasons for that.
It's undeniable that it's weakening.
Yes, it is. I understand why it's difficult for you to deny it, given what a bogeyman it's been in your mind.
May we all have half the faith in Christ that Sam has in science.
Therein lies your problem. Put you faith in Christ alone and not man.
Nobody said otherwise. Your error is putting you faith in something man made.
That's a mistake that leads to bad ends.
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
Oldbear83 said:You conflate Mind and Heart, Sam.Sam Lowry said:Your error is believing there's a conflict between science and Christ. It's the same mistake atheists often make.Mothra said:Sam Lowry said:Science and religion both have their place.Mothra said:Sam Lowry said:FIFY, and amen.Canon said:Mothra said:Sam Lowry said:No, not really.Mothra said:Sam Lowry said:Viruses weaken because killing the host makes it harder for them to spread. Covid takes a long time to kill, which means deadlier variants have more time to thrive before they're selected out. Early indications are that Delta is more virulent.Canada2017 said:Why is it unlikely to be weakening ?Sam Lowry said:
Unlikely that it's weakening. Fewer deaths are good, but there can be many reasons for that.
It's undeniable that it's weakening.
Yes, it is. I understand why it's difficult for you to deny it, given what a bogeyman it's been in your mind.
May we all have half the faith in Christ that Sam has in science.
Therein lies your problem. Put you faith in Christ alone and not man.
Nobody said otherwise. Your error is putting you faith in something man made.
That's a mistake that leads to bad ends.
If I thought it would matter I'd explain.Sam Lowry said:What are you looking at?ATL Bear said:That's obviously the only thing you looked at. LOL. Oh Sam.Sam Lowry said:"In summary, we show that the Delta VOC in Scotland was found mainly in younger, more affluent groups. Risk of COVID-19 hospital admission was approximately doubled in those with the Delta VOC..."ATL Bear said:Have no clue what you think this is saying. It certainly isn't anything about virulence or the fact the virus is weakening.Sam Lowry said:There are many factors. Delta currently seems more prevalent in younger groups.ATL Bear said:Virulence is reflected in severe outcomes. That's not showing in the data.Sam Lowry said:Most mutations are harmful to the virus. What you're not getting is that an increase in virulence is also harmful to the virus. They tend to "weaken" against humans as they get stronger in their environment.4th and Inches said:but it is science, you dont trust science?Sam Lowry said:Yeah, no.ATL Bear said:Simply untrue and unsupported. Mutations weaken viruses because mutations are harmful to the virus the vast majority of the time. That's true in every living organism.Sam Lowry said:Viruses weaken because killing the host makes it harder for them to spread. Covid takes a long time to kill, which means deadlier variants have more time to thrive before they're selected out. Early indications are that Delta is more virulent.Canada2017 said:Why is it unlikely to be weakening ?Sam Lowry said:
Unlikely that it's weakening. Fewer deaths are good, but there can be many reasons for that.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01358-1/fulltext
Convenient.ATL Bear said:If I thought it would matter I'd explain. %A0Sam Lowry said:What are you looking at?ATL Bear said:That's obviously the only thing you looked at. %A0LOL. %A0Oh Sam.Sam Lowry said:"In summary, we show that the Delta VOC in Scotland was found mainly in younger, more affluent groups. Risk of COVID-19 hospital admission was approximately doubled in those with the Delta VOC..."ATL Bear said:Have no clue what you think this is saying. %A0It certainly isn't anything about virulence or the fact the virus is weakening. %A0Sam Lowry said:There are many factors. Delta currently seems more prevalent in younger groups.ATL Bear said:Virulence is reflected in severe outcomes. %A0That's not showing in the data. %A0Sam Lowry said:Most mutations are harmful to the virus. What you're not getting is that an increase in virulence is also harmful to the virus. They tend to "weaken" against humans as they get stronger in their environment.4th and Inches said:but it is science, you dont trust science?Sam Lowry said:Yeah, no.ATL Bear said:Simply untrue and unsupported. %A0Mutations weaken viruses because mutations are harmful to the virus the vast majority of the time. %A0That's true in every living organism. %A0Sam Lowry said:Viruses weaken because killing the host makes it harder for them to spread. Covid takes a long time to kill, which means deadlier variants have more time to thrive before they're selected out. Early indications are that Delta is more virulent.Canada2017 said:Why is it unlikely to be weakening ?Sam Lowry said:
Unlikely that it's weakening. Fewer deaths are good, but there can be many reasons for that.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01358-1/fulltext
You picked a quote and didn't review the data. You didn't even incorporate the relevant reasons for the numbers, nor what classified as "younger". Like I said, if I thought it would matter, I'd engage.Sam Lowry said:Convenient.ATL Bear said:If I thought it would matter I'd explain. %A0Sam Lowry said:What are you looking at?ATL Bear said:That's obviously the only thing you looked at. %A0LOL. %A0Oh Sam.Sam Lowry said:"In summary, we show that the Delta VOC in Scotland was found mainly in younger, more affluent groups. Risk of COVID-19 hospital admission was approximately doubled in those with the Delta VOC..."ATL Bear said:Have no clue what you think this is saying. %A0It certainly isn't anything about virulence or the fact the virus is weakening. %A0Sam Lowry said:There are many factors. Delta currently seems more prevalent in younger groups.ATL Bear said:Virulence is reflected in severe outcomes. %A0That's not showing in the data. %A0Sam Lowry said:Most mutations are harmful to the virus. What you're not getting is that an increase in virulence is also harmful to the virus. They tend to "weaken" against humans as they get stronger in their environment.4th and Inches said:but it is science, you dont trust science?Sam Lowry said:Yeah, no.ATL Bear said:Simply untrue and unsupported. %A0Mutations weaken viruses because mutations are harmful to the virus the vast majority of the time. %A0That's true in every living organism. %A0Sam Lowry said:Viruses weaken because killing the host makes it harder for them to spread. Covid takes a long time to kill, which means deadlier variants have more time to thrive before they're selected out. Early indications are that Delta is more virulent.Canada2017 said:Why is it unlikely to be weakening ?Sam Lowry said:
Unlikely that it's weakening. Fewer deaths are good, but there can be many reasons for that.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01358-1/fulltext
Sure.ATL Bear said:You picked a quote and didn't review the data. You didn't even incorporate the relevant reasons for the numbers, nor what classified as "younger". Like I said, if I thought it would matter, I'd engage.Sam Lowry said:Convenient.ATL Bear said:If I thought it would matter I'd explain. %A0Sam Lowry said:What are you looking at?ATL Bear said:That's obviously the only thing you looked at. %A0LOL. %A0Oh Sam.Sam Lowry said:"In summary, we show that the Delta VOC in Scotland was found mainly in younger, more affluent groups. Risk of COVID-19 hospital admission was approximately doubled in those with the Delta VOC..."ATL Bear said:Have no clue what you think this is saying. %A0It certainly isn't anything about virulence or the fact the virus is weakening. %A0Sam Lowry said:There are many factors. Delta currently seems more prevalent in younger groups.ATL Bear said:Virulence is reflected in severe outcomes. %A0That's not showing in the data. %A0Sam Lowry said:Most mutations are harmful to the virus. What you're not getting is that an increase in virulence is also harmful to the virus. They tend to "weaken" against humans as they get stronger in their environment.4th and Inches said:but it is science, you dont trust science?Sam Lowry said:Yeah, no.ATL Bear said:Simply untrue and unsupported. %A0Mutations weaken viruses because mutations are harmful to the virus the vast majority of the time. %A0That's true in every living organism. %A0Sam Lowry said:Viruses weaken because killing the host makes it harder for them to spread. Covid takes a long time to kill, which means deadlier variants have more time to thrive before they're selected out. Early indications are that Delta is more virulent.Canada2017 said:Why is it unlikely to be weakening ?Sam Lowry said:
Unlikely that it's weakening. Fewer deaths are good, but there can be many reasons for that.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01358-1/fulltext
Sam Lowry said:Your error is believing there's a conflict between science and Christ. It's the same mistake atheists often make.Mothra said:Sam Lowry said:Science and religion both have their place.Mothra said:Sam Lowry said:FIFY, and amen.Canon said:Mothra said:Sam Lowry said:No, not really.Mothra said:Sam Lowry said:Viruses weaken because killing the host makes it harder for them to spread. Covid takes a long time to kill, which means deadlier variants have more time to thrive before they're selected out. Early indications are that Delta is more virulent.Canada2017 said:Why is it unlikely to be weakening ?Sam Lowry said:
Unlikely that it's weakening. Fewer deaths are good, but there can be many reasons for that.
It's undeniable that it's weakening.
Yes, it is. I understand why it's difficult for you to deny it, given what a bogeyman it's been in your mind.
May we all have half the faith in Christ that Sam has in science.
Therein lies your problem. Put you faith in Christ alone and not man.
Nobody said otherwise. Your error is putting you faith in something man made.
Sometimes there is sometimes there isn't. Depends on the issue. Regardless, faith should never be put in anything man made.
Then you should avoid chairs and computers. As for me, I'm utilizing both without serious injury or mishap.Mothra said:Sam Lowry said:Your error is believing there's a conflict between science and Christ. It's the same mistake atheists often make.Mothra said:Sam Lowry said:Science and religion both have their place.Mothra said:Sam Lowry said:FIFY, and amen.Canon said:Mothra said:Sam Lowry said:No, not really.Mothra said:Sam Lowry said:Viruses weaken because killing the host makes it harder for them to spread. Covid takes a long time to kill, which means deadlier variants have more time to thrive before they're selected out. Early indications are that Delta is more virulent.Canada2017 said:Why is it unlikely to be weakening ?Sam Lowry said:
Unlikely that it's weakening. Fewer deaths are good, but there can be many reasons for that.
It's undeniable that it's weakening.
Yes, it is. I understand why it's difficult for you to deny it, given what a bogeyman it's been in your mind.
May we all have half the faith in Christ that Sam has in science.
Therein lies your problem. Put you faith in Christ alone and not man.
Nobody said otherwise. Your error is putting you faith in something man made.
Sometimes there is sometimes there isn't. Depends on the issue. Regardless, faith should never be put in anything man made.
Surely you wouldn't exclude an important piece of information in your narrative quote would you?Sam Lowry said:Sure.ATL Bear said:You picked a quote and didn't review the data. You didn't even incorporate the relevant reasons for the numbers, nor what classified as "younger". Like I said, if I thought it would matter, I'd engage.Sam Lowry said:Convenient.ATL Bear said:If I thought it would matter I'd explain. %A0Sam Lowry said:What are you looking at?ATL Bear said:That's obviously the only thing you looked at. %A0LOL. %A0Oh Sam.Sam Lowry said:"In summary, we show that the Delta VOC in Scotland was found mainly in younger, more affluent groups. Risk of COVID-19 hospital admission was approximately doubled in those with the Delta VOC..."ATL Bear said:Have no clue what you think this is saying. %A0It certainly isn't anything about virulence or the fact the virus is weakening. %A0Sam Lowry said:There are many factors. Delta currently seems more prevalent in younger groups.ATL Bear said:Virulence is reflected in severe outcomes. %A0That's not showing in the data. %A0Sam Lowry said:Most mutations are harmful to the virus. What you're not getting is that an increase in virulence is also harmful to the virus. They tend to "weaken" against humans as they get stronger in their environment.4th and Inches said:but it is science, you dont trust science?Sam Lowry said:Yeah, no.ATL Bear said:Simply untrue and unsupported. %A0Mutations weaken viruses because mutations are harmful to the virus the vast majority of the time. %A0That's true in every living organism. %A0Sam Lowry said:Viruses weaken because killing the host makes it harder for them to spread. Covid takes a long time to kill, which means deadlier variants have more time to thrive before they're selected out. Early indications are that Delta is more virulent.Canada2017 said:Why is it unlikely to be weakening ?Sam Lowry said:
Unlikely that it's weakening. Fewer deaths are good, but there can be many reasons for that.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01358-1/fulltext
"In summary, we show that the Delta VOC in Scotland was found mainly in younger, more affluent groups. Risk of COVID-19 hospital admission was approximately doubled in those with the Delta VOC when compared to the Alpha VOC, with risk of admission particularly increased in those with five or more relevant comorbidities. "
They were 90% of the admissions and it literally is 3-5 comorbidities within the person.and primarily in the 40-65 demographic ("younger"). Not to mention there were so few hospitalizations that they couldn't delineate with any accuracy whether the different vaccines performed better or worse.
The macro data will play out, but somehow the goalposts will be moved again.
You're committing what I call the OldBear Fallacy. The classic example is where I say something like "Covid is ten times as bad as flu because it kills 1% of patients," and he comes back with "That's a damnable lie! Studies show that 99% of patients recover." The virus has always been more dangerous to older and sicker people. Most diseases are. What you're saying isn't wrong, nor is it relevant. It doesn't change the finding that the Delta variant is worse.ATL Bear said:Surely you wouldn't exclude an important piece of information in your narrative quote would you?Sam Lowry said:Sure.ATL Bear said:You picked a quote and didn't review the data. You didn't even incorporate the relevant reasons for the numbers, nor what classified as "younger". Like I said, if I thought it would matter, I'd engage.Sam Lowry said:Convenient.ATL Bear said:If I thought it would matter I'd explain. %A0Sam Lowry said:What are you looking at?ATL Bear said:That's obviously the only thing you looked at. %A0LOL. %A0Oh Sam.Sam Lowry said:"In summary, we show that the Delta VOC in Scotland was found mainly in younger, more affluent groups. Risk of COVID-19 hospital admission was approximately doubled in those with the Delta VOC..."ATL Bear said:Have no clue what you think this is saying. %A0It certainly isn't anything about virulence or the fact the virus is weakening. %A0Sam Lowry said:There are many factors. Delta currently seems more prevalent in younger groups.ATL Bear said:Virulence is reflected in severe outcomes. %A0That's not showing in the data. %A0Sam Lowry said:Most mutations are harmful to the virus. What you're not getting is that an increase in virulence is also harmful to the virus. They tend to "weaken" against humans as they get stronger in their environment.4th and Inches said:but it is science, you dont trust science?Sam Lowry said:Yeah, no.ATL Bear said:Simply untrue and unsupported. %A0Mutations weaken viruses because mutations are harmful to the virus the vast majority of the time. %A0That's true in every living organism. %A0Sam Lowry said:Viruses weaken because killing the host makes it harder for them to spread. Covid takes a long time to kill, which means deadlier variants have more time to thrive before they're selected out. Early indications are that Delta is more virulent.Canada2017 said:Why is it unlikely to be weakening ?Sam Lowry said:
Unlikely that it's weakening. Fewer deaths are good, but there can be many reasons for that.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01358-1/fulltext
"In summary, we show that the Delta VOC in Scotland was found mainly in younger, more affluent groups. Risk of COVID-19 hospital admission was approximately doubled in those with the Delta VOC when compared to the Alpha VOC, with risk of admission particularly increased in those with five or more relevant comorbidities. "
They were 90% of the admissions and it literally is 3-5 comorbidities within the person.and primarily in the 40-65 demographic ("younger"). Not to mention there were so few hospitalizations that they couldn't delineate with any accuracy whether the different vaccines performed better or worse.
The macro data will play out, but somehow the goalposts will be moved again.
As is most of your 'logic', SamSam Lowry said:Convenient.ATL Bear said:If I thought it would matter I'd explain. %A0Sam Lowry said:What are you looking at?ATL Bear said:That's obviously the only thing you looked at. %A0LOL. %A0Oh Sam.Sam Lowry said:"In summary, we show that the Delta VOC in Scotland was found mainly in younger, more affluent groups. Risk of COVID-19 hospital admission was approximately doubled in those with the Delta VOC..."ATL Bear said:Have no clue what you think this is saying. %A0It certainly isn't anything about virulence or the fact the virus is weakening. %A0Sam Lowry said:There are many factors. Delta currently seems more prevalent in younger groups.ATL Bear said:Virulence is reflected in severe outcomes. %A0That's not showing in the data. %A0Sam Lowry said:Most mutations are harmful to the virus. What you're not getting is that an increase in virulence is also harmful to the virus. They tend to "weaken" against humans as they get stronger in their environment.4th and Inches said:but it is science, you dont trust science?Sam Lowry said:Yeah, no.ATL Bear said:Simply untrue and unsupported. %A0Mutations weaken viruses because mutations are harmful to the virus the vast majority of the time. %A0That's true in every living organism. %A0Sam Lowry said:Viruses weaken because killing the host makes it harder for them to spread. Covid takes a long time to kill, which means deadlier variants have more time to thrive before they're selected out. Early indications are that Delta is more virulent.Canada2017 said:Why is it unlikely to be weakening ?Sam Lowry said:
Unlikely that it's weakening. Fewer deaths are good, but there can be many reasons for that.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01358-1/fulltext
When you are not falling back on irrelevant images to sell a line.
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
LOL.ATL Bear said:
Certainly vaccines and better treatment/understanding contributes to this number, but it's undeniable that the virus is weakening as they usually do over time
First wave (most deadly) lower case counts, highest mortality. Second wave, high case count, lower mortality rate, third wave (Delta variant), high case count, negligible mortality.
And the US is on fire with it.
For some odd reason, COVID hasn't gotten this memo.
Hospitals are filling up with unvaccinated people and a good number of them are dying.
Fear mongering back in fashion among the statists, I see
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
odd that places other than the US report the vax and the non vax patients admitted to the hospital are dying at similar rates to the delta.C. Jordan said:LOL.ATL Bear said:
Certainly vaccines and better treatment/understanding contributes to this number, but it's undeniable that the virus is weakening as they usually do over time
First wave (most deadly) lower case counts, highest mortality. Second wave, high case count, lower mortality rate, third wave (Delta variant), high case count, negligible mortality.
And the US is on fire with it.
For some odd reason, COVID hasn't gotten this memo.
Hospitals are filling up with unvaccinated people and a good number of them are dying.
Dr. Fauci and SCIENCE!!!!
This is interesting (if accurate).
The states with the highest cases right now are southern states. Those dang idiotic simpletons that are unvaxxers and are going to kill us all.
Exactly a year ago, the same states had the most cases. In April, it was mostly northern states.
Could this be influenced by people in the south retreating indoors to air conditioning in the summers? We know transmission is highest indoors. It is certainly feasible. Well, unless you have dug you heels into the sand regardless of the data ala Sam.
The states with the highest cases right now are southern states. Those dang idiotic simpletons that are unvaxxers and are going to kill us all.
Exactly a year ago, the same states had the most cases. In April, it was mostly northern states.
Could this be influenced by people in the south retreating indoors to air conditioning in the summers? We know transmission is highest indoors. It is certainly feasible. Well, unless you have dug you heels into the sand regardless of the data ala Sam.
The 10 states with the highest COVID hospitalizations per capita 7/24/2020 (left) vs the 10 states with the highest COVID hospitalizations per capita 7/24/2021 (right). I think I'm picking up a pattern here. pic.twitter.com/rK5nQf2YZM
— Eric (@The_OtherET) July 24, 2021
LOL
I'm going to regret this, but you simply don't read or maybe understand the data. I tried to make it visually easy with my image in the OP which is for the entire U.K. not just Scotland. The same ratios are showing in the US. Higher cases, negligible severe outcome. The study you posted had such small numbers (hospitalizations) that that fact alone showed how less problematic the virus is comparatively. What the study ironically was showing, which I thought maybe you would care about, is that younger groups aren't getting vaccinated, thus they are showing higher infection rates (not surprisingly). That fact ALONE drives the comparative increase in hospitalizations comparing to the other age groups. Duh!!Sam Lowry said:You're committing what I call the OldBear Fallacy. The classic example is where I say something like "Covid is ten times as bad as flu because it kills 1% of patients," and he comes back with "That's a damnable lie! Studies show that 99% of patients recover." The virus has always been more dangerous to older and sicker people. Most diseases are. What you're saying isn't wrong, nor is it relevant. It doesn't change the finding that the Delta variant is worse.ATL Bear said:Surely you wouldn't exclude an important piece of information in your narrative quote would you?Sam Lowry said:Sure.ATL Bear said:You picked a quote and didn't review the data. You didn't even incorporate the relevant reasons for the numbers, nor what classified as "younger". Like I said, if I thought it would matter, I'd engage.Sam Lowry said:Convenient.ATL Bear said:If I thought it would matter I'd explain. %A0Sam Lowry said:What are you looking at?ATL Bear said:That's obviously the only thing you looked at. %A0LOL. %A0Oh Sam.Sam Lowry said:"In summary, we show that the Delta VOC in Scotland was found mainly in younger, more affluent groups. Risk of COVID-19 hospital admission was approximately doubled in those with the Delta VOC..."ATL Bear said:Have no clue what you think this is saying. %A0It certainly isn't anything about virulence or the fact the virus is weakening. %A0Sam Lowry said:There are many factors. Delta currently seems more prevalent in younger groups.ATL Bear said:Virulence is reflected in severe outcomes. %A0That's not showing in the data. %A0Sam Lowry said:Most mutations are harmful to the virus. What you're not getting is that an increase in virulence is also harmful to the virus. They tend to "weaken" against humans as they get stronger in their environment.4th and Inches said:but it is science, you dont trust science?Sam Lowry said:Yeah, no.ATL Bear said:Simply untrue and unsupported. %A0Mutations weaken viruses because mutations are harmful to the virus the vast majority of the time. %A0That's true in every living organism. %A0Sam Lowry said:Viruses weaken because killing the host makes it harder for them to spread. Covid takes a long time to kill, which means deadlier variants have more time to thrive before they're selected out. Early indications are that Delta is more virulent.Canada2017 said:Why is it unlikely to be weakening ?Sam Lowry said:
Unlikely that it's weakening. Fewer deaths are good, but there can be many reasons for that.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01358-1/fulltext
"In summary, we show that the Delta VOC in Scotland was found mainly in younger, more affluent groups. Risk of COVID-19 hospital admission was approximately doubled in those with the Delta VOC when compared to the Alpha VOC, with risk of admission particularly increased in those with five or more relevant comorbidities. "
They were 90% of the admissions and it literally is 3-5 comorbidities within the person.and primarily in the 40-65 demographic ("younger"). Not to mention there were so few hospitalizations that they couldn't delineate with any accuracy whether the different vaccines performed better or worse.
The macro data will play out, but somehow the goalposts will be moved again.
To simplify what they did in the study. Hey, before "Older" group had 9 of 10 hospitalizations so "younger" group was at 10% of hospitalizations. But oh gosh with Delta variant "younger" has .5 out of 3 hospitalizations from this tiny window of data, therefore they're at 16% now, so they've almost doubled their hospitalization ratio, thus we should worry. Oh yeah, they ("younger") aren't vaccinated either.
What you seem to struggle to conceptually understand is that when death and severe outcome decouple from a disease, it no longer becomes a worrisome element. I'm not saying COVID is completely there yet, but we don't worry about the common cold because severe outcome is rare. People do end up with pneumonia and some die after getting a cold, but it's extremely rare. It's highly infectious (as a fellow coronavirus) but is not virulent. This is the path of viral flame out.
Is .1% low enough for you? .001%? The death ratios now are over 1000% less than just the Fall/Winter wave. Your fallacy is the belief this will ever be a zero appearance virus or even a zero death one. It's here with us forever. How long or what viral profile is enough to release the irrational fear?
Sam Lowry said:Then you should avoid chairs and computers. As for me, I'm utilizing both without serious injury or mishap.Mothra said:Sam Lowry said:Your error is believing there's a conflict between science and Christ. It's the same mistake atheists often make.Mothra said:Sam Lowry said:Science and religion both have their place.Mothra said:Sam Lowry said:FIFY, and amen.Canon said:Mothra said:Sam Lowry said:No, not really.Mothra said:Sam Lowry said:Viruses weaken because killing the host makes it harder for them to spread. Covid takes a long time to kill, which means deadlier variants have more time to thrive before they're selected out. Early indications are that Delta is more virulent.Canada2017 said:Why is it unlikely to be weakening ?Sam Lowry said:
Unlikely that it's weakening. Fewer deaths are good, but there can be many reasons for that.
It's undeniable that it's weakening.
Yes, it is. I understand why it's difficult for you to deny it, given what a bogeyman it's been in your mind.
May we all have half the faith in Christ that Sam has in science.
Therein lies your problem. Put you faith in Christ alone and not man.
Nobody said otherwise. Your error is putting you faith in something man made.
Sometimes there is sometimes there isn't. Depends on the issue. Regardless, faith should never be put in anything man made.
I'm not sure about you and computers. You seem to be eaten up with the dumb ass when using one.
Thats the narrative that isn't true. I could post the same graph for the US showing the same decoupling, but I'd like to give it even more time to see cases spike and the results. We're reporting case levels the same as during the first wave period with less than a tenth of the severe outcomes. I know that doesn't matter to some, it's all about the narrative and not the data. It's like people are cheering for COVID. Good grief.C. Jordan said:LOL.ATL Bear said:
Certainly vaccines and better treatment/understanding contributes to this number, but it's undeniable that the virus is weakening as they usually do over time
First wave (most deadly) lower case counts, highest mortality. Second wave, high case count, lower mortality rate, third wave (Delta variant), high case count, negligible mortality.
And the US is on fire with it.
For some odd reason, COVID hasn't gotten this memo.
Hospitals are filling up with unvaccinated people and a good number of them are dying.
And the fact that it's infecting younger people is one reason the death rate may be lower. Duh. That's why I cited the article. The comparison of hospitalization risks, however, is not between age groups but between variants, which is the other reason I cited it.ATL Bear said:I'm going to regret this, but you simply don't read or maybe understand the data. I tried to make it visually easy with my image in the OP which is for the entire U.K. not just Scotland. The same ratios are showing in the US. Higher cases, negligible severe outcome. The study you posted had such small numbers (hospitalizations) that that fact alone showed how less problematic the virus is comparatively. What the study ironically was showing, which I thought maybe you would care about, is that younger groups aren't getting vaccinated, thus they are showing higher infection rates (not surprisingly). That fact ALONE drives the comparative increase in hospitalizations comparing to the other age groups. Duh!!Sam Lowry said:You're committing what I call the OldBear Fallacy. The classic example is where I say something like "Covid is ten times as bad as flu because it kills 1% of patients," and he comes back with "That's a damnable lie! Studies show that 99% of patients recover." The virus has always been more dangerous to older and sicker people. Most diseases are. What you're saying isn't wrong, nor is it relevant. It doesn't change the finding that the Delta variant is worse.ATL Bear said:Surely you wouldn't exclude an important piece of information in your narrative quote would you?Sam Lowry said:Sure.ATL Bear said:You picked a quote and didn't review the data. You didn't even incorporate the relevant reasons for the numbers, nor what classified as "younger". Like I said, if I thought it would matter, I'd engage.Sam Lowry said:Convenient.ATL Bear said:If I thought it would matter I'd explain. %A0Sam Lowry said:What are you looking at?ATL Bear said:That's obviously the only thing you looked at. %A0LOL. %A0Oh Sam.Sam Lowry said:"In summary, we show that the Delta VOC in Scotland was found mainly in younger, more affluent groups. Risk of COVID-19 hospital admission was approximately doubled in those with the Delta VOC..."ATL Bear said:Have no clue what you think this is saying. %A0It certainly isn't anything about virulence or the fact the virus is weakening. %A0Sam Lowry said:There are many factors. Delta currently seems more prevalent in younger groups.ATL Bear said:Virulence is reflected in severe outcomes. %A0That's not showing in the data. %A0Sam Lowry said:Most mutations are harmful to the virus. What you're not getting is that an increase in virulence is also harmful to the virus. They tend to "weaken" against humans as they get stronger in their environment.4th and Inches said:but it is science, you dont trust science?Sam Lowry said:Yeah, no.ATL Bear said:Simply untrue and unsupported. %A0Mutations weaken viruses because mutations are harmful to the virus the vast majority of the time. %A0That's true in every living organism. %A0Sam Lowry said:Viruses weaken because killing the host makes it harder for them to spread. Covid takes a long time to kill, which means deadlier variants have more time to thrive before they're selected out. Early indications are that Delta is more virulent.Canada2017 said:Why is it unlikely to be weakening ?Sam Lowry said:
Unlikely that it's weakening. Fewer deaths are good, but there can be many reasons for that.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01358-1/fulltext
"In summary, we show that the Delta VOC in Scotland was found mainly in younger, more affluent groups. Risk of COVID-19 hospital admission was approximately doubled in those with the Delta VOC when compared to the Alpha VOC, with risk of admission particularly increased in those with five or more relevant comorbidities. "
They were 90% of the admissions and it literally is 3-5 comorbidities within the person.and primarily in the 40-65 demographic ("younger"). Not to mention there were so few hospitalizations that they couldn't delineate with any accuracy whether the different vaccines performed better or worse.
The macro data will play out, but somehow the goalposts will be moved again.
To simplify what they did in the study. Hey, before "Older" group had 9 of 10 hospitalizations so "younger" group was at 10% of hospitalizations. But oh gosh with Delta variant "younger" has .5 out of 3 hospitalizations from this tiny window of data, therefore they're at 16% now, so they've almost doubled their hospitalization ratio, thus we should worry. Oh yeah, they ("younger") aren't vaccinated either.
What you seem to struggle to conceptually understand is that when death and severe outcome decouple from a disease, it no longer becomes a worrisome element. I'm not saying COVID is completely there yet, but we don't worry about the common cold because severe outcome is rare. People do end up with pneumonia and some die after getting a cold, but it's extremely rare. It's highly infectious (as a fellow coronavirus) but is not virulent. This is the path of viral flame out.
Is .1% low enough for you? .001%? The death ratios now are over 1000% less than just the Fall/Winter wave. Your fallacy is the belief this will ever be a zero appearance virus or even a zero death one. It's here with us forever. How long or what viral profile is enough to release the irrational fear?
No it doesn't. Its conclusions were driven by the shift from majority of infections being the Delta Variant and age adjusted comparatives.Sam Lowry said:And the fact that it's infecting younger people is one reason the death rate may be lower. Duh. That's why I cited the article. The comparison of hospitalization risks, however, is not between age groups but between variants, which is the other reason I cited it.ATL Bear said:I'm going to regret this, but you simply don't read or maybe understand the data. I tried to make it visually easy with my image in the OP which is for the entire U.K. not just Scotland. The same ratios are showing in the US. Higher cases, negligible severe outcome. The study you posted had such small numbers (hospitalizations) that that fact alone showed how less problematic the virus is comparatively. What the study ironically was showing, which I thought maybe you would care about, is that younger groups aren't getting vaccinated, thus they are showing higher infection rates (not surprisingly). That fact ALONE drives the comparative increase in hospitalizations comparing to the other age groups. Duh!!Sam Lowry said:You're committing what I call the OldBear Fallacy. The classic example is where I say something like "Covid is ten times as bad as flu because it kills 1% of patients," and he comes back with "That's a damnable lie! Studies show that 99% of patients recover." The virus has always been more dangerous to older and sicker people. Most diseases are. What you're saying isn't wrong, nor is it relevant. It doesn't change the finding that the Delta variant is worse.ATL Bear said:Surely you wouldn't exclude an important piece of information in your narrative quote would you?Sam Lowry said:Sure.ATL Bear said:You picked a quote and didn't review the data. You didn't even incorporate the relevant reasons for the numbers, nor what classified as "younger". Like I said, if I thought it would matter, I'd engage.Sam Lowry said:Convenient.ATL Bear said:If I thought it would matter I'd explain. %A0Sam Lowry said:What are you looking at?ATL Bear said:That's obviously the only thing you looked at. %A0LOL. %A0Oh Sam.Sam Lowry said:"In summary, we show that the Delta VOC in Scotland was found mainly in younger, more affluent groups. Risk of COVID-19 hospital admission was approximately doubled in those with the Delta VOC..."ATL Bear said:Have no clue what you think this is saying. %A0It certainly isn't anything about virulence or the fact the virus is weakening. %A0Sam Lowry said:There are many factors. Delta currently seems more prevalent in younger groups.ATL Bear said:Virulence is reflected in severe outcomes. %A0That's not showing in the data. %A0Sam Lowry said:Most mutations are harmful to the virus. What you're not getting is that an increase in virulence is also harmful to the virus. They tend to "weaken" against humans as they get stronger in their environment.4th and Inches said:but it is science, you dont trust science?Sam Lowry said:Yeah, no.ATL Bear said:Simply untrue and unsupported. %A0Mutations weaken viruses because mutations are harmful to the virus the vast majority of the time. %A0That's true in every living organism. %A0Sam Lowry said:Viruses weaken because killing the host makes it harder for them to spread. Covid takes a long time to kill, which means deadlier variants have more time to thrive before they're selected out. Early indications are that Delta is more virulent.Canada2017 said:Why is it unlikely to be weakening ?Sam Lowry said:
Unlikely that it's weakening. Fewer deaths are good, but there can be many reasons for that.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01358-1/fulltext
"In summary, we show that the Delta VOC in Scotland was found mainly in younger, more affluent groups. Risk of COVID-19 hospital admission was approximately doubled in those with the Delta VOC when compared to the Alpha VOC, with risk of admission particularly increased in those with five or more relevant comorbidities. "
They were 90% of the admissions and it literally is 3-5 comorbidities within the person.and primarily in the 40-65 demographic ("younger"). Not to mention there were so few hospitalizations that they couldn't delineate with any accuracy whether the different vaccines performed better or worse.
The macro data will play out, but somehow the goalposts will be moved again.
To simplify what they did in the study. Hey, before "Older" group had 9 of 10 hospitalizations so "younger" group was at 10% of hospitalizations. But oh gosh with Delta variant "younger" has .5 out of 3 hospitalizations from this tiny window of data, therefore they're at 16% now, so they've almost doubled their hospitalization ratio, thus we should worry. Oh yeah, they ("younger") aren't vaccinated either.
What you seem to struggle to conceptually understand is that when death and severe outcome decouple from a disease, it no longer becomes a worrisome element. I'm not saying COVID is completely there yet, but we don't worry about the common cold because severe outcome is rare. People do end up with pneumonia and some die after getting a cold, but it's extremely rare. It's highly infectious (as a fellow coronavirus) but is not virulent. This is the path of viral flame out.
Is .1% low enough for you? .001%? The death ratios now are over 1000% less than just the Fall/Winter wave. Your fallacy is the belief this will ever be a zero appearance virus or even a zero death one. It's here with us forever. How long or what viral profile is enough to release the irrational fear?
Wrong again.ATL Bear said:No it doesn't. Its conclusions were driven by the shift from majority of infections being the Delta Variant and age adjusted comparatives.Sam Lowry said:And the fact that it's infecting younger people is one reason the death rate may be lower. Duh. That's why I cited the article. The comparison of hospitalization risks, however, is not between age groups but between variants, which is the other reason I cited it.ATL Bear said:I'm going to regret this, but you simply don't read or maybe understand the data. I tried to make it visually easy with my image in the OP which is for the entire U.K. not just Scotland. The same ratios are showing in the US. Higher cases, negligible severe outcome. The study you posted had such small numbers (hospitalizations) that that fact alone showed how less problematic the virus is comparatively. What the study ironically was showing, which I thought maybe you would care about, is that younger groups aren't getting vaccinated, thus they are showing higher infection rates (not surprisingly). That fact ALONE drives the comparative increase in hospitalizations comparing to the other age groups. Duh!!Sam Lowry said:You're committing what I call the OldBear Fallacy. The classic example is where I say something like "Covid is ten times as bad as flu because it kills 1% of patients," and he comes back with "That's a damnable lie! Studies show that 99% of patients recover." The virus has always been more dangerous to older and sicker people. Most diseases are. What you're saying isn't wrong, nor is it relevant. It doesn't change the finding that the Delta variant is worse.ATL Bear said:Surely you wouldn't exclude an important piece of information in your narrative quote would you?Sam Lowry said:Sure.ATL Bear said:You picked a quote and didn't review the data. You didn't even incorporate the relevant reasons for the numbers, nor what classified as "younger". Like I said, if I thought it would matter, I'd engage.Sam Lowry said:Convenient.ATL Bear said:If I thought it would matter I'd explain. %A0Sam Lowry said:What are you looking at?ATL Bear said:That's obviously the only thing you looked at. %A0LOL. %A0Oh Sam.Sam Lowry said:"In summary, we show that the Delta VOC in Scotland was found mainly in younger, more affluent groups. Risk of COVID-19 hospital admission was approximately doubled in those with the Delta VOC..."ATL Bear said:Have no clue what you think this is saying. %A0It certainly isn't anything about virulence or the fact the virus is weakening. %A0Sam Lowry said:There are many factors. Delta currently seems more prevalent in younger groups.ATL Bear said:Virulence is reflected in severe outcomes. %A0That's not showing in the data. %A0Sam Lowry said:Most mutations are harmful to the virus. What you're not getting is that an increase in virulence is also harmful to the virus. They tend to "weaken" against humans as they get stronger in their environment.4th and Inches said:but it is science, you dont trust science?Sam Lowry said:Yeah, no.ATL Bear said:Simply untrue and unsupported. %A0Mutations weaken viruses because mutations are harmful to the virus the vast majority of the time. %A0That's true in every living organism. %A0Sam Lowry said:Viruses weaken because killing the host makes it harder for them to spread. Covid takes a long time to kill, which means deadlier variants have more time to thrive before they're selected out. Early indications are that Delta is more virulent.Canada2017 said:Why is it unlikely to be weakening ?Sam Lowry said:
Unlikely that it's weakening. Fewer deaths are good, but there can be many reasons for that.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01358-1/fulltext
"In summary, we show that the Delta VOC in Scotland was found mainly in younger, more affluent groups. Risk of COVID-19 hospital admission was approximately doubled in those with the Delta VOC when compared to the Alpha VOC, with risk of admission particularly increased in those with five or more relevant comorbidities. "
They were 90% of the admissions and it literally is 3-5 comorbidities within the person.and primarily in the 40-65 demographic ("younger"). Not to mention there were so few hospitalizations that they couldn't delineate with any accuracy whether the different vaccines performed better or worse.
The macro data will play out, but somehow the goalposts will be moved again.
To simplify what they did in the study. Hey, before "Older" group had 9 of 10 hospitalizations so "younger" group was at 10% of hospitalizations. But oh gosh with Delta variant "younger" has .5 out of 3 hospitalizations from this tiny window of data, therefore they're at 16% now, so they've almost doubled their hospitalization ratio, thus we should worry. Oh yeah, they ("younger") aren't vaccinated either.
What you seem to struggle to conceptually understand is that when death and severe outcome decouple from a disease, it no longer becomes a worrisome element. I'm not saying COVID is completely there yet, but we don't worry about the common cold because severe outcome is rare. People do end up with pneumonia and some die after getting a cold, but it's extremely rare. It's highly infectious (as a fellow coronavirus) but is not virulent. This is the path of viral flame out.
Is .1% low enough for you? .001%? The death ratios now are over 1000% less than just the Fall/Winter wave. Your fallacy is the belief this will ever be a zero appearance virus or even a zero death one. It's here with us forever. How long or what viral profile is enough to release the irrational fear?
What an idiot this man is by trying to make this like it is an all Southern states problem.midgett said:
This is interesting (if accurate).
The states with the highest cases right now are southern states. Those dang idiotic simpletons that are unvaxxers and are going to kill us all.
Exactly a year ago, the same states had the most cases. In April, it was mostly northern states.
Could this be influenced by people in the south retreating indoors to air conditioning in the summers? We know transmission is highest indoors. It is certainly feasible. Well, unless you have dug you heels into the sand regardless of the data ala Sam.The 10 states with the highest COVID hospitalizations per capita 7/24/2020 (left) vs the 10 states with the highest COVID hospitalizations per capita 7/24/2021 (right). I think I'm picking up a pattern here. pic.twitter.com/rK5nQf2YZM
— Eric (@The_OtherET) July 24, 2021
Northern states had pretty much run out of people to infect by July last year. With new variants they too get going again.
This is what happens when idiots get a hold of statistics, without a background in statistics and actuarial data.
The top 4 states in death for capita are.
1) New Jersey
2) New York
3) Massachusetts
4) Rhode Island
though southern states are hated by liberal Yankees, Texas is still #24 in death per capita, Florida is #25, people have been acting as if they are the worst, Okie's #22, Missouri #29. Shut up Yankee fools.
Some states North and South will have issues. It is a virus, it's going to continue to spread.
Been staying out of this argument because I'm just not sure what way Delta is going. It is very easily transmitted no doubt about that.
Viruses eventually mutate themselves out of their most deadly version. Not going to commit one way or the other on this variant yet. I just don't know.
Hopefully it is a less deadly version. So many older people died the first time around, many of the most vulnerable are now dead. Most older people have gotten the vaccination. Closing in on 80% of 70 and older are fully vaccinated. So fewer old people are as vulnerable this time around.
Younger people die at a much lower rate, they are getting this disease at a much higher rate, probably because they are vaccinated at a lower percentage.
I'm just going to have to wait and see how the numbers come out. Hopefully they will be much better with this surge.
One thing is certain. Life expectancy went down by over a full year last year, I think about 1.5 years.
The vast majority of the deaths were 55 and over.
Viruses eventually mutate themselves out of their most deadly version. Not going to commit one way or the other on this variant yet. I just don't know.
Hopefully it is a less deadly version. So many older people died the first time around, many of the most vulnerable are now dead. Most older people have gotten the vaccination. Closing in on 80% of 70 and older are fully vaccinated. So fewer old people are as vulnerable this time around.
Younger people die at a much lower rate, they are getting this disease at a much higher rate, probably because they are vaccinated at a lower percentage.
I'm just going to have to wait and see how the numbers come out. Hopefully they will be much better with this surge.
One thing is certain. Life expectancy went down by over a full year last year, I think about 1.5 years.
The vast majority of the deaths were 55 and over.
As I said, I knew I'd regret it.Sam Lowry said:Wrong again.ATL Bear said:No it doesn't. Its conclusions were driven by the shift from majority of infections being the Delta Variant and age adjusted comparatives.Sam Lowry said:And the fact that it's infecting younger people is one reason the death rate may be lower. Duh. That's why I cited the article. The comparison of hospitalization risks, however, is not between age groups but between variants, which is the other reason I cited it.ATL Bear said:I'm going to regret this, but you simply don't read or maybe understand the data. I tried to make it visually easy with my image in the OP which is for the entire U.K. not just Scotland. The same ratios are showing in the US. Higher cases, negligible severe outcome. The study you posted had such small numbers (hospitalizations) that that fact alone showed how less problematic the virus is comparatively. What the study ironically was showing, which I thought maybe you would care about, is that younger groups aren't getting vaccinated, thus they are showing higher infection rates (not surprisingly). That fact ALONE drives the comparative increase in hospitalizations comparing to the other age groups. Duh!!Sam Lowry said:You're committing what I call the OldBear Fallacy. The classic example is where I say something like "Covid is ten times as bad as flu because it kills 1% of patients," and he comes back with "That's a damnable lie! Studies show that 99% of patients recover." The virus has always been more dangerous to older and sicker people. Most diseases are. What you're saying isn't wrong, nor is it relevant. It doesn't change the finding that the Delta variant is worse.ATL Bear said:Surely you wouldn't exclude an important piece of information in your narrative quote would you?Sam Lowry said:Sure.ATL Bear said:You picked a quote and didn't review the data. You didn't even incorporate the relevant reasons for the numbers, nor what classified as "younger". Like I said, if I thought it would matter, I'd engage.Sam Lowry said:Convenient.ATL Bear said:If I thought it would matter I'd explain. %A0Sam Lowry said:What are you looking at?ATL Bear said:That's obviously the only thing you looked at. %A0LOL. %A0Oh Sam.Sam Lowry said:"In summary, we show that the Delta VOC in Scotland was found mainly in younger, more affluent groups. Risk of COVID-19 hospital admission was approximately doubled in those with the Delta VOC..."ATL Bear said:Have no clue what you think this is saying. %A0It certainly isn't anything about virulence or the fact the virus is weakening. %A0Sam Lowry said:There are many factors. Delta currently seems more prevalent in younger groups.ATL Bear said:Virulence is reflected in severe outcomes. %A0That's not showing in the data. %A0Sam Lowry said:Most mutations are harmful to the virus. What you're not getting is that an increase in virulence is also harmful to the virus. They tend to "weaken" against humans as they get stronger in their environment.4th and Inches said:but it is science, you dont trust science?Sam Lowry said:Yeah, no.ATL Bear said:Simply untrue and unsupported. %A0Mutations weaken viruses because mutations are harmful to the virus the vast majority of the time. %A0That's true in every living organism. %A0Sam Lowry said:Viruses weaken because killing the host makes it harder for them to spread. Covid takes a long time to kill, which means deadlier variants have more time to thrive before they're selected out. Early indications are that Delta is more virulent.Canada2017 said:Why is it unlikely to be weakening ?Sam Lowry said:
Unlikely that it's weakening. Fewer deaths are good, but there can be many reasons for that.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01358-1/fulltext
"In summary, we show that the Delta VOC in Scotland was found mainly in younger, more affluent groups. Risk of COVID-19 hospital admission was approximately doubled in those with the Delta VOC when compared to the Alpha VOC, with risk of admission particularly increased in those with five or more relevant comorbidities. "
They were 90% of the admissions and it literally is 3-5 comorbidities within the person.and primarily in the 40-65 demographic ("younger"). Not to mention there were so few hospitalizations that they couldn't delineate with any accuracy whether the different vaccines performed better or worse.
The macro data will play out, but somehow the goalposts will be moved again.
To simplify what they did in the study. Hey, before "Older" group had 9 of 10 hospitalizations so "younger" group was at 10% of hospitalizations. But oh gosh with Delta variant "younger" has .5 out of 3 hospitalizations from this tiny window of data, therefore they're at 16% now, so they've almost doubled their hospitalization ratio, thus we should worry. Oh yeah, they ("younger") aren't vaccinated either.
What you seem to struggle to conceptually understand is that when death and severe outcome decouple from a disease, it no longer becomes a worrisome element. I'm not saying COVID is completely there yet, but we don't worry about the common cold because severe outcome is rare. People do end up with pneumonia and some die after getting a cold, but it's extremely rare. It's highly infectious (as a fellow coronavirus) but is not virulent. This is the path of viral flame out.
Is .1% low enough for you? .001%? The death ratios now are over 1000% less than just the Fall/Winter wave. Your fallacy is the belief this will ever be a zero appearance virus or even a zero death one. It's here with us forever. How long or what viral profile is enough to release the irrational fear?
The anti-vaxers have had their fun. They’re now engaged in open incitement to murder. It’s time for arrests, prosecutions, and serious jail time.
— (((Dan Hodges))) (@DPJHodges) July 24, 2021
he is a political media hackDoc Holliday said:The anti-vaxers have had their fun. They’re now engaged in open incitement to murder. It’s time for arrests, prosecutions, and serious jail time.
— (((Dan Hodges))) (@DPJHodges) July 24, 2021
They were protesting vax passports, they are not anti vaxers. Alot of those protesting the passport have been vaxed
Yep, people like that guy are absolutely unhinged.4th and Inches said:he is a political media hackDoc Holliday said:The anti-vaxers have had their fun. They’re now engaged in open incitement to murder. It’s time for arrests, prosecutions, and serious jail time.
— (((Dan Hodges))) (@DPJHodges) July 24, 2021
They were protesting vax passports, they are not anti vaxers. Alot of those protesting the passport have been vaxed
ATL Bear said:As I said, I knew I'd regret it.Sam Lowry said:Wrong again.ATL Bear said:No it doesn't. Its conclusions were driven by the shift from majority of infections being the Delta Variant and age adjusted comparatives.Sam Lowry said:And the fact that it's infecting younger people is one reason the death rate may be lower. Duh. That's why I cited the article. The comparison of hospitalization risks, however, is not between age groups but between variants, which is the other reason I cited it.ATL Bear said:I'm going to regret this, but you simply don't read or maybe understand the data. I tried to make it visually easy with my image in the OP which is for the entire U.K. not just Scotland. The same ratios are showing in the US. Higher cases, negligible severe outcome. The study you posted had such small numbers (hospitalizations) that that fact alone showed how less problematic the virus is comparatively. What the study ironically was showing, which I thought maybe you would care about, is that younger groups aren't getting vaccinated, thus they are showing higher infection rates (not surprisingly). That fact ALONE drives the comparative increase in hospitalizations comparing to the other age groups. Duh!!Sam Lowry said:You're committing what I call the OldBear Fallacy. The classic example is where I say something like "Covid is ten times as bad as flu because it kills 1% of patients," and he comes back with "That's a damnable lie! Studies show that 99% of patients recover." The virus has always been more dangerous to older and sicker people. Most diseases are. What you're saying isn't wrong, nor is it relevant. It doesn't change the finding that the Delta variant is worse.ATL Bear said:Surely you wouldn't exclude an important piece of information in your narrative quote would you?Sam Lowry said:Sure.ATL Bear said:You picked a quote and didn't review the data. You didn't even incorporate the relevant reasons for the numbers, nor what classified as "younger". Like I said, if I thought it would matter, I'd engage.Sam Lowry said:Convenient.ATL Bear said:If I thought it would matter I'd explain. %A0Sam Lowry said:What are you looking at?ATL Bear said:That's obviously the only thing you looked at. %A0LOL. %A0Oh Sam.Sam Lowry said:"In summary, we show that the Delta VOC in Scotland was found mainly in younger, more affluent groups. Risk of COVID-19 hospital admission was approximately doubled in those with the Delta VOC..."ATL Bear said:Have no clue what you think this is saying. %A0It certainly isn't anything about virulence or the fact the virus is weakening. %A0Sam Lowry said:There are many factors. Delta currently seems more prevalent in younger groups.ATL Bear said:Virulence is reflected in severe outcomes. %A0That's not showing in the data. %A0Sam Lowry said:Most mutations are harmful to the virus. What you're not getting is that an increase in virulence is also harmful to the virus. They tend to "weaken" against humans as they get stronger in their environment.4th and Inches said:but it is science, you dont trust science?Sam Lowry said:Yeah, no.ATL Bear said:Simply untrue and unsupported. %A0Mutations weaken viruses because mutations are harmful to the virus the vast majority of the time. %A0That's true in every living organism. %A0Sam Lowry said:Viruses weaken because killing the host makes it harder for them to spread. Covid takes a long time to kill, which means deadlier variants have more time to thrive before they're selected out. Early indications are that Delta is more virulent.Canada2017 said:Why is it unlikely to be weakening ?Sam Lowry said:
Unlikely that it's weakening. Fewer deaths are good, but there can be many reasons for that.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01358-1/fulltext
"In summary, we show that the Delta VOC in Scotland was found mainly in younger, more affluent groups. Risk of COVID-19 hospital admission was approximately doubled in those with the Delta VOC when compared to the Alpha VOC, with risk of admission particularly increased in those with five or more relevant comorbidities. "
They were 90% of the admissions and it literally is 3-5 comorbidities within the person.and primarily in the 40-65 demographic ("younger"). Not to mention there were so few hospitalizations that they couldn't delineate with any accuracy whether the different vaccines performed better or worse.
The macro data will play out, but somehow the goalposts will be moved again.
To simplify what they did in the study. Hey, before "Older" group had 9 of 10 hospitalizations so "younger" group was at 10% of hospitalizations. But oh gosh with Delta variant "younger" has .5 out of 3 hospitalizations from this tiny window of data, therefore they're at 16% now, so they've almost doubled their hospitalization ratio, thus we should worry. Oh yeah, they ("younger") aren't vaccinated either.
What you seem to struggle to conceptually understand is that when death and severe outcome decouple from a disease, it no longer becomes a worrisome element. I'm not saying COVID is completely there yet, but we don't worry about the common cold because severe outcome is rare. People do end up with pneumonia and some die after getting a cold, but it's extremely rare. It's highly infectious (as a fellow coronavirus) but is not virulent. This is the path of viral flame out.
Is .1% low enough for you? .001%? The death ratios now are over 1000% less than just the Fall/Winter wave. Your fallacy is the belief this will ever be a zero appearance virus or even a zero death one. It's here with us forever. How long or what viral profile is enough to release the irrational fear?
Sam, Oso and DC are all off the rails on this topic. The only standard they seem to be able to hold to is "Be afraid. Be very Afraid!!"
Scary to think what they and others would advocate for during an extremely deadly pandemic.Canon said:ATL Bear said:As I said, I knew I'd regret it.Sam Lowry said:Wrong again.ATL Bear said:No it doesn't. Its conclusions were driven by the shift from majority of infections being the Delta Variant and age adjusted comparatives.Sam Lowry said:And the fact that it's infecting younger people is one reason the death rate may be lower. Duh. That's why I cited the article. The comparison of hospitalization risks, however, is not between age groups but between variants, which is the other reason I cited it.ATL Bear said:I'm going to regret this, but you simply don't read or maybe understand the data. I tried to make it visually easy with my image in the OP which is for the entire U.K. not just Scotland. The same ratios are showing in the US. Higher cases, negligible severe outcome. The study you posted had such small numbers (hospitalizations) that that fact alone showed how less problematic the virus is comparatively. What the study ironically was showing, which I thought maybe you would care about, is that younger groups aren't getting vaccinated, thus they are showing higher infection rates (not surprisingly). That fact ALONE drives the comparative increase in hospitalizations comparing to the other age groups. Duh!!Sam Lowry said:You're committing what I call the OldBear Fallacy. The classic example is where I say something like "Covid is ten times as bad as flu because it kills 1% of patients," and he comes back with "That's a damnable lie! Studies show that 99% of patients recover." The virus has always been more dangerous to older and sicker people. Most diseases are. What you're saying isn't wrong, nor is it relevant. It doesn't change the finding that the Delta variant is worse.ATL Bear said:Surely you wouldn't exclude an important piece of information in your narrative quote would you?Sam Lowry said:Sure.ATL Bear said:You picked a quote and didn't review the data. You didn't even incorporate the relevant reasons for the numbers, nor what classified as "younger". Like I said, if I thought it would matter, I'd engage.Sam Lowry said:Convenient.ATL Bear said:If I thought it would matter I'd explain. %A0Sam Lowry said:What are you looking at?ATL Bear said:That's obviously the only thing you looked at. %A0LOL. %A0Oh Sam.Sam Lowry said:"In summary, we show that the Delta VOC in Scotland was found mainly in younger, more affluent groups. Risk of COVID-19 hospital admission was approximately doubled in those with the Delta VOC..."ATL Bear said:Have no clue what you think this is saying. %A0It certainly isn't anything about virulence or the fact the virus is weakening. %A0Sam Lowry said:There are many factors. Delta currently seems more prevalent in younger groups.ATL Bear said:Virulence is reflected in severe outcomes. %A0That's not showing in the data. %A0Sam Lowry said:Most mutations are harmful to the virus. What you're not getting is that an increase in virulence is also harmful to the virus. They tend to "weaken" against humans as they get stronger in their environment.4th and Inches said:but it is science, you dont trust science?Sam Lowry said:Yeah, no.ATL Bear said:Simply untrue and unsupported. %A0Mutations weaken viruses because mutations are harmful to the virus the vast majority of the time. %A0That's true in every living organism. %A0Sam Lowry said:Viruses weaken because killing the host makes it harder for them to spread. Covid takes a long time to kill, which means deadlier variants have more time to thrive before they're selected out. Early indications are that Delta is more virulent.Canada2017 said:Why is it unlikely to be weakening ?Sam Lowry said:
Unlikely that it's weakening. Fewer deaths are good, but there can be many reasons for that.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01358-1/fulltext
"In summary, we show that the Delta VOC in Scotland was found mainly in younger, more affluent groups. Risk of COVID-19 hospital admission was approximately doubled in those with the Delta VOC when compared to the Alpha VOC, with risk of admission particularly increased in those with five or more relevant comorbidities. "
They were 90% of the admissions and it literally is 3-5 comorbidities within the person.and primarily in the 40-65 demographic ("younger"). Not to mention there were so few hospitalizations that they couldn't delineate with any accuracy whether the different vaccines performed better or worse.
The macro data will play out, but somehow the goalposts will be moved again.
To simplify what they did in the study. Hey, before "Older" group had 9 of 10 hospitalizations so "younger" group was at 10% of hospitalizations. But oh gosh with Delta variant "younger" has .5 out of 3 hospitalizations from this tiny window of data, therefore they're at 16% now, so they've almost doubled their hospitalization ratio, thus we should worry. Oh yeah, they ("younger") aren't vaccinated either.
What you seem to struggle to conceptually understand is that when death and severe outcome decouple from a disease, it no longer becomes a worrisome element. I'm not saying COVID is completely there yet, but we don't worry about the common cold because severe outcome is rare. People do end up with pneumonia and some die after getting a cold, but it's extremely rare. It's highly infectious (as a fellow coronavirus) but is not virulent. This is the path of viral flame out.
Is .1% low enough for you? .001%? The death ratios now are over 1000% less than just the Fall/Winter wave. Your fallacy is the belief this will ever be a zero appearance virus or even a zero death one. It's here with us forever. How long or what viral profile is enough to release the irrational fear?
Sam, Oso and DC are all off the rails on this topic. The only standard they seem to be able to hold to is "Be afraid. Be very Afraid!!"
Be informed.
There is a lot of information flying around, and unfortunately a lot of it - on both sides - is mostly emotional.
From where I sit, I'd say we know the following:
There is a lot of information flying around, and unfortunately a lot of it - on both sides - is mostly emotional.
From where I sit, I'd say we know the following:
- The vaccines are generally effective in preventing COVID
- The vaccines are however, still experimental, and some people - including me - had reactions to taking them. Those reactions include deaths.
- Both the Trump and Biden Administrations were right to encourage people to get the vaccine, as the vaccines are safe for well over 95% of people who take them
- There is evidence that people who previously had COVID do not need to take the vaccine to be protected against having COVID again
- Dr. Fauci has repeatedly shown he is a political player far more than a doctor. In fact, Dr. Fauci has not personally treated even one patient with COVID, and therefore should not be a primary source for medical advice. Instead, people should consult their regular doctor, who knows their personal medical history and condition, and listen to their advice, even if their doctor agrees with Dr. Fauci.
- There are a number of treatments which have been effective. But again, it makes more sense to consult your doctor before attempting any of them; self-medication may lead to serious consequences.
- This is an internet forum. While many mean well, please do not take an internet forum as evidence or proof of medical fact.
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier