Big 12 Conference Realignment Possibilities | The Hard Count

July 2, 2021
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Big 12 Conference Realignment Possibilities | The Hard Count

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Big 12 Conference Realignment Possibilities | The Hard Count

29,036 Views | 33 Replies | Last: 1 yr ago by Robert Wilson
Grizz Air
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Cornell??!?

I know you went there but you cover BU now!!!
Aliceinbubbleland
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Baylor made $100 Million last year?
historian
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Every so often we have these expansion discussions and I still do not see the geographic logic of moving west. The Big 12 is already spread out quite a bit & adding the Arizona schools only makes sense geographically if we drop West Virginia. Adding Nebraska does make some sense geographically but I doubt there is much interest on either side of that discussion.

Strictly speaking from the perspective of $$$, the Arizona schools make a lot of sense while Nebraska makes none. If the Big 12 is going to raid another P5 conference then it probably should be the Big 10 or ACC. Realistically, however, is there any P5 school who would seriously consider a switch? I'm not sure any would, including Arizona or Arizona State. And who, among the Big 10 or ACC would we really want?

I think this is why expansion has not happened: it's hard to find competitive schools who want in & we want, make geographic sense, & add $$$ to the conference. And, let's face it, $$$ will be the driving force in any such discussion.

So once again the discussion continues but I will be very surprised if anything changes any time soon.
“Whether you eat or drink, or whatever you do, do all to the glory of God.”
I Corinthians 10:31
TellMeYouLoveMe
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historian said:

Every so often we have these expansion discussions and I still do not see the geographic logic of moving west. The Big 12 is already spread out quite a bit & adding the Arizona schools only makes sense geographically if we drop West Virginia. Adding Nebraska does make some sense geographically but I doubt there is much interest on either side of that discussion.

Strictly speaking from the perspective of $$$, the Arizona schools make a lot of sense while Nebraska makes none. If the Big 12 is going to raid another P5 conference then it probably should be the Big 10 or ACC. Realistically, however, is there any P5 school who would seriously consider a switch? I'm not sure any would, including Arizona or Arizona State. And who, among the Big 10 or ACC would we really want?

I think this is why expansion has not happened: it's hard to find competitive schools who want in & we want, make geographic sense, & add $$$ to the conference. And, let's face it, $$$ will be the driving force in any such discussion.

So once again the discussion continues but I will be very surprised if anything changes any time soon.
This.

These are usually banal, dunce discussions where brainwashed losers call in to a radio show and dream up their dream schedule of intergalactic opponents and never admit that TV ratings for their precious chosen team would put the network out of business.

We'll be fine. The State U's are in the crosshairs of the budget and college debt crisis, partly due to Covid. So long as we keep a steady stream of full paying customers, someone will want to pay and watch football in Texas.
but I sure as hell know plenty of them and I talk to them a lot, including during the search. And NOTHING was leaked.
BUGWBBear
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I wouldn't mind adding AZ and ASU. At least now I'd have a reason to go to Sun Devil Stadium every other year.
Aliceinbubbleland
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BUGWBBear said:

I wouldn't mind adding AZ and ASU. At least now I'd have a reason to go to Sun Devil Stadium every other year.
Count me out. I have no interest in going to the wasteland. Lubbock is bad enough but beyond that is Death Valley.

Yeah I get it. It's pretty. It is also pretty damned hot in September. Like 115-120 degrees.
Greenbear
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I agree with Alice. Arizona schools don't make much sense. Don't bring much to the table with regards to recruiting, TV, increases travel expense, etc. They need to be with PAC 12 schools. Colorado makes sense with Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State and TT not that far away.
ABC BEAR
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This is the kind of summertime, {waiting on football], filler you can depend on from bored sports writers.

CTbruin
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If you are a golfer, the Arizona schools make much sense
PartyBear
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I don't think this guy's ideas make a lot of sense. If the Pac is to be raided, it only makes sense that the California schools shoukd be the only candidates. But I don't see that happening really. He concludes that being called the XII, it needs 12 teams. Who cares about the name and having 10? It's about how big each slice of pie is.

Am I mistaken isn't this guy an assistant AD at Baylor? If so why on earth is he wearing another schools' gear. Isn't he under contract to wear only Nike Baylor gear in public in his official capacity or perhaps not even exclusive to his official capacity.
Bear8084
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ABC BEAR said:

This is the kind of summertime, {waiting on football], filler you can depend on from bored sports writers.




Pretty much. A lot of this is a moot point as the CFP is expanding making a lot of P5 realignment not necessary.
PartyBear
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Bear8084 said:

ABC BEAR said:

This is the kind of summertime, {waiting on football], filler you can depend on from bored sports writers.




Pretty much. A lot of this is a moot point as the CFP is expanding making a lot of P5 realignment not necessary.


True!

In fact some schools not in a P5 could be better off now. Cincinatti can now be in the play off as often as Bama now. I say "could be better off" because I don't know for sure if they would make as much $$ doing that as they would in a P5 not making it. But the indirect benefit of being in play off contention annually from a branding stand point would also have to be considered.
historian
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ABC BEAR said:

This is the kind of summertime, {waiting on football], filler you can depend on from bored sports writers.


Every year, all summer long. Sometimes it's fun to speculate, though.
“Whether you eat or drink, or whatever you do, do all to the glory of God.”
I Corinthians 10:31
ABC BEAR
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historian said:

ABC BEAR said:

This is the kind of summertime, {waiting on football], filler you can depend on from bored sports writers.


Every year, all summer long. Sometimes it's fun to speculate, though.
It's fun to speculate and fun to read pre-season fodder on all the teams who left the XII for greener pastures. Missouri and Colorado seem to be faring the best.....it's hard to type that without smiling. Nebraska has redefined 'success' as anything above .500. Even though Arkansas left before the XII formed, their frustration is worth noting: If Arkansas football were a heart monitor, the doctor would flip the switch and walk out of the room.
historian
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Of the teams that left the Big 12, only the Aggies seem to be fairing well and for football, last year might just be a fluke. I definitely do not see them contending for the SEC west this year, much less a conference title.
“Whether you eat or drink, or whatever you do, do all to the glory of God.”
I Corinthians 10:31
Aliceinbubbleland
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They're getting closer. Saban is getting older although Jimbo is no youngster. With the money and recruiting success he has shown I'd be surprised if they don't win it all in the West SEC in the next few years and I will delight when they blow it in the SEC Conf Tourney.

As to expansion in BCS, you will soon see conference affiliation fall apart and individual teams scheduling lots of patsies to bake the top 12.

UT will love it. They are dying to go Indy.
CTWallace
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Geography, attendance, fan base, history, recent success, etc. are all important but I think the TV partners will make any calls on realignment. Besides the usual suspects, I assume someone like Netflix, Amazon or Google will join in as well.

The fact that the PAC 12 is the weakest conference and their GOR and TV deal expire in 23/24 is only gonna add fuel to the flames. If the PAC 12 doesn't announce a new agreement in the next 12-18 months, I don't think see how they don't lose teams.
ABC BEAR
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historian said:

Of the teams that left the Big 12, only the Aggies seem to be fairing well and for football, last year might just be a fluke. I definitely do not see them contending for the SEC west this year, much less a conference title.
Oh yeah, the aggies......I had forgotten about them.
historian
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Easy to do. Many Baylor fans try very hard to forget about them!
“Whether you eat or drink, or whatever you do, do all to the glory of God.”
I Corinthians 10:31
fadskier
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If we expand, I'd go east and if no one wanst to leave a conference, then I'd pick up UCF, East Carolina, Memphis and Cincinnati. Why? All have fanbases that are ready for movement and FedEx has already agreed to build UM a stadium should they get into a power 5. The best part about UCF and ECU is games in the ACC and SEC back yard. I would love that!
Aberzombie1892
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Bear8084 said:

ABC BEAR said:

This is the kind of summertime, {waiting on football], filler you can depend on from bored sports writers.




Pretty much. A lot of this is a moot point as the CFP is expanding making a lot of P5 realignment not necessary.
CFP expansion resolves the access portion of P5 realignment, however, it does not resolve the disparity in revenue portion of that realignment. The elephant in the room is how much the Big 12's next media deal is worth relative to the B1G and SEC, and, if the deal is in the realm of $15-$25M less per year per team as compared to those conferences, would OU and UT be willing to give up that much revenue on an annual basis in order to maintain the Big 12? Even though OU and UT have a lot of money, that level of disparity on an annual basis would has a negative impact on them eventually and there is no way for them to eventually reverse that course as members of the Big 12 as it is currently constructed.

Assuming that the OU and UT remain in the Big 12, the conference to target for a raid is the PAC due to their low revenues and low relative viewership as compared to other P5s. The issue there is which programs there are truly interested in leaving and potentially ending long time local rivalries in exchange for more financial stability, better viewership, and some more meaningful games at the national stage.

Outside of the PAC, the only P5s that would be worth serious targeting are Nebraska, Arkansas, and maybe a few of the southern ACC schools (although the ACC's most recent media deal makes raiding them extremely unattractive and the network that they put together adds some more security for those programs).
GreenACU
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Nebraska isn't leaving the Big 10 and Arkansas isn't leaving the SEC.

In 3 years the SEC payout will go up another ~$20 million per team. We need to expand and get back to 12 at least or we are going to be left behind.
Aberzombie1892
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GreenACU said:

Nebraska isn't leaving the Big 10 and Arkansas isn't leaving the SEC.

In 3 years the SEC payout will go up another ~$20 million. We need to expand and get back to 12 at least or we are going to be left behind.
Nebraska and Arkansas both have incentives to leave their conferences - they're bad fits and they each have virtually no shot at a conference title even when they are having good years. Meanwhile, the Big 12 would want them because they're each more valuable to media partners than all of the Big 12 programs other than OU and UT.

The Big 12 needs to expand in order to remain financially relevant, but it needs valuable teams - adding G5 teams won't increase payouts enough to give the existing members a raise and adding P5 programs that wouldn't instantly fit in the top 1/3 of the Big 12 in terms of value wouldn't increase those payouts enough either.
PartyBear
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This is all speculation and nothing is going to happen. That said I'll play along. Nebraska and Arkansas really do not bring much to the table. They are tiny states and neither really has the "brand" that they think. Meaning neither is a Texas, Michigan, Ohio St or Bama (which does have top brand despite being from a tiny state).
Shakesbear
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I'd like to see Colorado back in. Always love a trip up to Boulder and Folsom Field. Nice weather too Add Houston and it's a chance to go see family and friends with an easy drive. That puts us back at twelve: like the name of our conference
Retreat Hell! We just got here! The 2/5
ABC BEAR
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Aberzombie1892 said:

GreenACU said:

Nebraska isn't leaving the Big 10 and Arkansas isn't leaving the SEC.

In 3 years the SEC payout will go up another ~$20 million. We need to expand and get back to 12 at least or we are going to be left behind.
Nebraska and Arkansas both have incentives to leave their conferences - they're bad fits and they each have virtually no shot at a conference title even when they are having good years. Meanwhile, the Big 12 would want them because they're each more valuable to media partners than all of the Big 12 programs other than OU and UT.

The Big 12 needs to expand in order to remain financially relevant, but it needs valuable teams - adding G5 teams won't increase payouts enough to give the existing members a raise and adding P5 programs that wouldn't instantly fit in the top 1/3 of the Big 12 in terms of valuable wouldn't increase those payouts enough either.
Good stuff. I might add that there are two plums waiting to be picked in UCF & USF. Both schools in a P5 conference will be beasts in 5-7 years. They represent the future and will open up Florida recruiting for the rest of the conference.

Nebraska and Arkansas are the past and shouldn't be given another thought. Interesting dynamic for both schools is that the more $$$ they earn the more they suck on the football field. They bought into a Faustian bargain and must live with it for eternity.
Robert Wilson
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WVU is a good member.

We should still add Memphis and Cincy as a bridge to the Ohio River Valley. They're both extremely competitive without P5 status. They'd be incredibly dangerous with P5 status and would raid SEC and B10 recruiting grounds and TV territory.
HarryMehre
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Robert Wilson said:

WVU is a good member.

We should still add Memphis and Cincy as a bridge to the Ohio River Valley. They're both extremely competitive without P5 status. They'd be incredibly dangerous with P5 status and would raid SEC and B10 recruiting grounds and TV territory.
Personally I don't think a lot of West Virginia. Too far away and an embarrassing fan base.

Do you really think that Memphis and Cincinnati would raid the SEC and Big 10 recruiting grounds and TV area?
Kentucky has tried to get a wedge into the Big 10 recruiting area, especially Ohio, for decades and don't have much to show for it. Memphis is an afterthought to the SEC area once you get outside the Memphis City limit signs. Remember Cougar High (UofH)? People in Tennessee call Memphis Tiger High. About the same level as Houston-maybe.

I would add Houston before both of those.
Robert Wilson
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HarryMehre said:

Robert Wilson said:

WVU is a good member.

We should still add Memphis and Cincy as a bridge to the Ohio River Valley. They're both extremely competitive without P5 status. They'd be incredibly dangerous with P5 status and would raid SEC and B10 recruiting grounds and TV territory.
Personally I don't think a lot of West Virginia. Too far away and an embarrassing fan base.

Do you really think that Memphis and Cincinnati would raid the SEC and Big 10 recruiting grounds and TV area?
Kentucky has tried to get a wedge into the Big 10 recruiting area, especially Ohio, for decades and don't have much to show for it. Memphis is an afterthought to the SEC area once you get outside the Memphis City limit signs. Remember Cougar High (UofH)? People in Tennessee call Memphis Tiger High. About the same level as Houston-maybe.

I would add Houston before both of those.
The reason we don't add Houston is we got tired of them kicking our ass and keeping Houston talent at home.
Aberzombie1892
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ABC BEAR said:

Aberzombie1892 said:

GreenACU said:

Nebraska isn't leaving the Big 10 and Arkansas isn't leaving the SEC.

In 3 years the SEC payout will go up another ~$20 million. We need to expand and get back to 12 at least or we are going to be left behind.
Nebraska and Arkansas both have incentives to leave their conferences - they're bad fits and they each have virtually no shot at a conference title even when they are having good years. Meanwhile, the Big 12 would want them because they're each more valuable to media partners than all of the Big 12 programs other than OU and UT.

The Big 12 needs to expand in order to remain financially relevant, but it needs valuable teams - adding G5 teams won't increase payouts enough to give the existing members a raise and adding P5 programs that wouldn't instantly fit in the top 1/3 of the Big 12 in terms of valuable wouldn't increase those payouts enough either.
Good stuff. I might add that there are two plums waiting to be picked in UCF & USF. Both schools in a P5 conference will be beasts in 5-7 years. They represent the future and will open up Florida recruiting for the rest of the conference.

Nebraska and Arkansas are the past and shouldn't be given another thought. Interesting dynamic for both schools is that the more $$$ they earn the more they suck on the football field. They bought into a Faustian bargain and must live with it for eternity.
OU v. Nebraska and UT v. Arkansas would be huge Big 12 conference games in terms of viewership even if Nebraska and Arkansas are not what they once were - literally only OU v. UT would be bigger. However, if the Big 12 passed on them, who is available that would add enough value to the media partners - partners that don't care about recruiting, geography, or overpaying for programs? This website (https://sports.usatoday.com/ncaa/finances) provides the revenues for each financial department, and, as an example, Kentucky's athletic department has more than ~$50M more per year in revenue than any of West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Iowa State and Kansas State. That's a real problem that's only going to get worse, especially if the Big 12 either doesn't expand or expands with G5 programs.
historian
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PartyBear said:

This is all speculation and nothing is going to happen. That said I'll play along. Nebraska and Arkansas really do not bring much to the table. They are tiny states and neither really has the "brand" that they think. Meaning neither is a Texas, Michigan, Ohio St or Bama (which does have top brand despite being from a tiny state).


Being in all but 1 playoff helps. So does winning a bunch of natty's over the years.
“Whether you eat or drink, or whatever you do, do all to the glory of God.”
I Corinthians 10:31
Stranger
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Robert Wilson said:

HarryMehre said:

Robert Wilson said:

WVU is a good member.

We should still add Memphis and Cincy as a bridge to the Ohio River Valley. They're both extremely competitive without P5 status. They'd be incredibly dangerous with P5 status and would raid SEC and B10 recruiting grounds and TV territory.
Personally I don't think a lot of West Virginia. Too far away and an embarrassing fan base.

Do you really think that Memphis and Cincinnati would raid the SEC and Big 10 recruiting grounds and TV area?
Kentucky has tried to get a wedge into the Big 10 recruiting area, especially Ohio, for decades and don't have much to show for it. Memphis is an afterthought to the SEC area once you get outside the Memphis City limit signs. Remember Cougar High (UofH)? People in Tennessee call Memphis Tiger High. About the same level as Houston-maybe.

I would add Houston before both of those.
The reason we don't add Houston is we got tired of them kicking our ass and keeping Houston talent at home.



Rice has more fans than Houston.

When UH played in its first Cotton Bowl game, Hoss Brock, bowl chairman, commented that half of the University of Houston fans ate at a 7-Eleven and the other half robbed one.
Robert Wilson
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Stranger said:

Robert Wilson said:

HarryMehre said:

Robert Wilson said:

WVU is a good member.

We should still add Memphis and Cincy as a bridge to the Ohio River Valley. They're both extremely competitive without P5 status. They'd be incredibly dangerous with P5 status and would raid SEC and B10 recruiting grounds and TV territory.
Personally I don't think a lot of West Virginia. Too far away and an embarrassing fan base.

Do you really think that Memphis and Cincinnati would raid the SEC and Big 10 recruiting grounds and TV area?
Kentucky has tried to get a wedge into the Big 10 recruiting area, especially Ohio, for decades and don't have much to show for it. Memphis is an afterthought to the SEC area once you get outside the Memphis City limit signs. Remember Cougar High (UofH)? People in Tennessee call Memphis Tiger High. About the same level as Houston-maybe.

I would add Houston before both of those.
The reason we don't add Houston is we got tired of them kicking our ass and keeping Houston talent at home.



Rice has more fans than Houston.

When UH played in its first Cotton Bowl game, Hoss Brock, bowl chairman, commented that half of the University of Houston fans ate at a 7-Eleven and the other half robbed one.
In UH's short stint in the SWC, they won more than twice as many football conference championships as we ever did.

Their basketball team has been to 6 final 4s and two championship games.

They are dangerous. That's why we don't want them around. I don't blame us. I can still hear those air raid sirens...
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