Big 12 Conference Realignment Possibilities | The Hard Count
This.historian said:
Every so often we have these expansion discussions and I still do not see the geographic logic of moving west. The Big 12 is already spread out quite a bit & adding the Arizona schools only makes sense geographically if we drop West Virginia. Adding Nebraska does make some sense geographically but I doubt there is much interest on either side of that discussion.
Strictly speaking from the perspective of $$$, the Arizona schools make a lot of sense while Nebraska makes none. If the Big 12 is going to raid another P5 conference then it probably should be the Big 10 or ACC. Realistically, however, is there any P5 school who would seriously consider a switch? I'm not sure any would, including Arizona or Arizona State. And who, among the Big 10 or ACC would we really want?
I think this is why expansion has not happened: it's hard to find competitive schools who want in & we want, make geographic sense, & add $$$ to the conference. And, let's face it, $$$ will be the driving force in any such discussion.
So once again the discussion continues but I will be very surprised if anything changes any time soon.
Count me out. I have no interest in going to the wasteland. Lubbock is bad enough but beyond that is Death Valley.BUGWBBear said:
I wouldn't mind adding AZ and ASU. At least now I'd have a reason to go to Sun Devil Stadium every other year.
ABC BEAR said:
This is the kind of summertime, {waiting on football], filler you can depend on from bored sports writers.
Bear8084 said:ABC BEAR said:
This is the kind of summertime, {waiting on football], filler you can depend on from bored sports writers.
Pretty much. A lot of this is a moot point as the CFP is expanding making a lot of P5 realignment not necessary.
ABC BEAR said:
This is the kind of summertime, {waiting on football], filler you can depend on from bored sports writers.
It's fun to speculate and fun to read pre-season fodder on all the teams who left the XII for greener pastures. Missouri and Colorado seem to be faring the best.....it's hard to type that without smiling. Nebraska has redefined 'success' as anything above .500. Even though Arkansas left before the XII formed, their frustration is worth noting: If Arkansas football were a heart monitor, the doctor would flip the switch and walk out of the room.historian said:ABC BEAR said:
This is the kind of summertime, {waiting on football], filler you can depend on from bored sports writers.
Every year, all summer long. Sometimes it's fun to speculate, though.
Oh yeah, the aggies......I had forgotten about them.historian said:
Of the teams that left the Big 12, only the Aggies seem to be fairing well and for football, last year might just be a fluke. I definitely do not see them contending for the SEC west this year, much less a conference title.
CFP expansion resolves the access portion of P5 realignment, however, it does not resolve the disparity in revenue portion of that realignment. The elephant in the room is how much the Big 12's next media deal is worth relative to the B1G and SEC, and, if the deal is in the realm of $15-$25M less per year per team as compared to those conferences, would OU and UT be willing to give up that much revenue on an annual basis in order to maintain the Big 12? Even though OU and UT have a lot of money, that level of disparity on an annual basis would has a negative impact on them eventually and there is no way for them to eventually reverse that course as members of the Big 12 as it is currently constructed.Bear8084 said:ABC BEAR said:
This is the kind of summertime, {waiting on football], filler you can depend on from bored sports writers.
Pretty much. A lot of this is a moot point as the CFP is expanding making a lot of P5 realignment not necessary.
Nebraska and Arkansas both have incentives to leave their conferences - they're bad fits and they each have virtually no shot at a conference title even when they are having good years. Meanwhile, the Big 12 would want them because they're each more valuable to media partners than all of the Big 12 programs other than OU and UT.GreenACU said:
Nebraska isn't leaving the Big 10 and Arkansas isn't leaving the SEC.
In 3 years the SEC payout will go up another ~$20 million. We need to expand and get back to 12 at least or we are going to be left behind.
Add Houston and it's a chance to go see family and friends with an easy drive. That puts us back at twelve: like the name of our conference 
Good stuff. I might add that there are two plums waiting to be picked in UCF & USF. Both schools in a P5 conference will be beasts in 5-7 years. They represent the future and will open up Florida recruiting for the rest of the conference.Aberzombie1892 said:Nebraska and Arkansas both have incentives to leave their conferences - they're bad fits and they each have virtually no shot at a conference title even when they are having good years. Meanwhile, the Big 12 would want them because they're each more valuable to media partners than all of the Big 12 programs other than OU and UT.GreenACU said:
Nebraska isn't leaving the Big 10 and Arkansas isn't leaving the SEC.
In 3 years the SEC payout will go up another ~$20 million. We need to expand and get back to 12 at least or we are going to be left behind.
The Big 12 needs to expand in order to remain financially relevant, but it needs valuable teams - adding G5 teams won't increase payouts enough to give the existing members a raise and adding P5 programs that wouldn't instantly fit in the top 1/3 of the Big 12 in terms of valuable wouldn't increase those payouts enough either.
Personally I don't think a lot of West Virginia. Too far away and an embarrassing fan base.Robert Wilson said:
WVU is a good member.
We should still add Memphis and Cincy as a bridge to the Ohio River Valley. They're both extremely competitive without P5 status. They'd be incredibly dangerous with P5 status and would raid SEC and B10 recruiting grounds and TV territory.
The reason we don't add Houston is we got tired of them kicking our ass and keeping Houston talent at home.HarryMehre said:Personally I don't think a lot of West Virginia. Too far away and an embarrassing fan base.Robert Wilson said:
WVU is a good member.
We should still add Memphis and Cincy as a bridge to the Ohio River Valley. They're both extremely competitive without P5 status. They'd be incredibly dangerous with P5 status and would raid SEC and B10 recruiting grounds and TV territory.
Do you really think that Memphis and Cincinnati would raid the SEC and Big 10 recruiting grounds and TV area?
Kentucky has tried to get a wedge into the Big 10 recruiting area, especially Ohio, for decades and don't have much to show for it. Memphis is an afterthought to the SEC area once you get outside the Memphis City limit signs. Remember Cougar High (UofH)? People in Tennessee call Memphis Tiger High. About the same level as Houston-maybe.
I would add Houston before both of those.
OU v. Nebraska and UT v. Arkansas would be huge Big 12 conference games in terms of viewership even if Nebraska and Arkansas are not what they once were - literally only OU v. UT would be bigger. However, if the Big 12 passed on them, who is available that would add enough value to the media partners - partners that don't care about recruiting, geography, or overpaying for programs? This website (https://sports.usatoday.com/ncaa/finances) provides the revenues for each financial department, and, as an example, Kentucky's athletic department has more than ~$50M more per year in revenue than any of West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Iowa State and Kansas State. That's a real problem that's only going to get worse, especially if the Big 12 either doesn't expand or expands with G5 programs.ABC BEAR said:Good stuff. I might add that there are two plums waiting to be picked in UCF & USF. Both schools in a P5 conference will be beasts in 5-7 years. They represent the future and will open up Florida recruiting for the rest of the conference.Aberzombie1892 said:Nebraska and Arkansas both have incentives to leave their conferences - they're bad fits and they each have virtually no shot at a conference title even when they are having good years. Meanwhile, the Big 12 would want them because they're each more valuable to media partners than all of the Big 12 programs other than OU and UT.GreenACU said:
Nebraska isn't leaving the Big 10 and Arkansas isn't leaving the SEC.
In 3 years the SEC payout will go up another ~$20 million. We need to expand and get back to 12 at least or we are going to be left behind.
The Big 12 needs to expand in order to remain financially relevant, but it needs valuable teams - adding G5 teams won't increase payouts enough to give the existing members a raise and adding P5 programs that wouldn't instantly fit in the top 1/3 of the Big 12 in terms of valuable wouldn't increase those payouts enough either.
Nebraska and Arkansas are the past and shouldn't be given another thought. Interesting dynamic for both schools is that the more $$$ they earn the more they suck on the football field. They bought into a Faustian bargain and must live with it for eternity.
PartyBear said:
This is all speculation and nothing is going to happen. That said I'll play along. Nebraska and Arkansas really do not bring much to the table. They are tiny states and neither really has the "brand" that they think. Meaning neither is a Texas, Michigan, Ohio St or Bama (which does have top brand despite being from a tiny state).
Robert Wilson said:The reason we don't add Houston is we got tired of them kicking our ass and keeping Houston talent at home.HarryMehre said:Personally I don't think a lot of West Virginia. Too far away and an embarrassing fan base.Robert Wilson said:
WVU is a good member.
We should still add Memphis and Cincy as a bridge to the Ohio River Valley. They're both extremely competitive without P5 status. They'd be incredibly dangerous with P5 status and would raid SEC and B10 recruiting grounds and TV territory.
Do you really think that Memphis and Cincinnati would raid the SEC and Big 10 recruiting grounds and TV area?
Kentucky has tried to get a wedge into the Big 10 recruiting area, especially Ohio, for decades and don't have much to show for it. Memphis is an afterthought to the SEC area once you get outside the Memphis City limit signs. Remember Cougar High (UofH)? People in Tennessee call Memphis Tiger High. About the same level as Houston-maybe.
I would add Houston before both of those.
In UH's short stint in the SWC, they won more than twice as many football conference championships as we ever did.Stranger said:Robert Wilson said:The reason we don't add Houston is we got tired of them kicking our ass and keeping Houston talent at home.HarryMehre said:Personally I don't think a lot of West Virginia. Too far away and an embarrassing fan base.Robert Wilson said:
WVU is a good member.
We should still add Memphis and Cincy as a bridge to the Ohio River Valley. They're both extremely competitive without P5 status. They'd be incredibly dangerous with P5 status and would raid SEC and B10 recruiting grounds and TV territory.
Do you really think that Memphis and Cincinnati would raid the SEC and Big 10 recruiting grounds and TV area?
Kentucky has tried to get a wedge into the Big 10 recruiting area, especially Ohio, for decades and don't have much to show for it. Memphis is an afterthought to the SEC area once you get outside the Memphis City limit signs. Remember Cougar High (UofH)? People in Tennessee call Memphis Tiger High. About the same level as Houston-maybe.
I would add Houston before both of those.
Rice has more fans than Houston.
When UH played in its first Cotton Bowl game, Hoss Brock, bowl chairman, commented that half of the University of Houston fans ate at a 7-Eleven and the other half robbed one.
