Baptist Betting Advice: Week 2

Last week wasn’t a good start for me in calling games going only 1-3 against the spread.
 

Missouri was able to get chances in the redzone, but came up empty a couple of times. Oklahoma thought the game would be 20 minutes and Kansas State looked pretty good on defense. The game I got right was Texas covering at home in a win that has been widely discussed.


Story lines for this week to watch: Can Kansas make it two wins in a row? Can TCU get a resume building win? Will Texas have a letdown game? How long will Gundy keep the mullet?


Ohio at Kansas

Vegas line: Kansas -3

Let’s start with the team that put up 55 points on the board. No, not Baylor. The Kansas Jayhawks pounded the Rhode Island Rams 55-6 last week.  Fun stat from week 1: Kansas leads the Big 12 in offensive yards per play. KU will host the Ohio Bobcats this week who are coming off a 3OT loss to Texas State. Ohio watched Texas State kick a FG to send the game into OT. In the 3rd overtime Ohio was sacked on a 2 point conversion to send the game to a fourth OT.

In the opening drive of last week’s game Ohio lost starting RB AJ Ouellete. He was their returning starter and he is out indefinitely. New starting QB Greg Windham piled up close to 400 yards in the marathon game last week. Windham has some experienced wide receivers to throw to with Jordan Reid anchoring the group. The Bobcats used their running backs frequently in the passing game last week. I expect we see more of that vs the KU defense.


Kansas offered nothing offensively last season. The best thing about the KU offense is the WR group became sophomores which should help one of them crack 400 years this season. David Beaty didn’t name a starter heading into the Rhode Island game, but senior Montell Cozart got the call .Cozart complete over 70% of his passes, but the yards per attempt was under 8. The KU offensive line lost 3 starters which was their strength on offense. Defensively Ohio was pretty good last week when DC Jimmy Burrow was aggressive. Burrow’s defense lost most of the secondary and their depth will be a question up froth. But they have the players to make Kansas uncomfortable.

 I’m glad the Jayhawks got a win. But it should be pointed out that Rhode Island is basically the Kansas of the Colonial Athletic Association. Kansas is improving but is the talent level there to string together two wins in a row?


Ohio 31 Kansas 28


Texas Tech vs Arizona St

Vegas line: ASU -2.5


Arizona State began the year without a QB who had thrown a pass in college. This year Todd Graham is going with Manny Wilkins. He will have weapons in the skill positions with Demario Richard and Tim White. Wilkins completed almost 75% of his passes last week and he ran for 86 yards. The major question mark, outside of QB, is losing 4 starters on the offensive line. Chip Lindsey takes over as OC and his team at Southern Miss was aggressive and full of big plays. On the opposite side of the ball, Texas Tech was one of the worst defenses in the country last season. The Raiders were awful against the rush and they lose a lot of their front 7. Addition by subtraction? The secondary could be better this season. But that will depend on the pass rush.
 

Patrick Mahomes is a heck of a QB. He piles up yards and makes sure the Tech band keeps playing the fight song. DeAndre Washington and Jakeem Grant could flip the field for Tech in a hurry and they are both gone. I have no doubt that Tech will be fine with guys out wide. But the Raiders need to find a running game. Excluding Mahomes, last week vs SFA the leading rusher had 28 yards.


Defensively, Arizona State will be tested in the back of the defense. In 2015 ASU gave up 67 passes of over 20 yards. The corners are new and that could be good or bad. The defensive line for the Devils brings back their top producers but they are only 3 deep on the line. The strength of the defense is the linebackers. ASU’s top two returning linebackers (Salamo Fiso and Christian Sam) are dealing with injury. Sam is doubtful to play on Saturday. Depth will be tested on Saturday.


I think the wrong team is favored. I think Tech will score often and the Sun Devils are too inexperienced to keep pace. Tech is vulnerable against the run if ASU can exploit it.


Texas Tech 52 Arizona State 45


Louisiana-Monroe at Oklahoma

Vegas line: OU -46.5

Oklahoma got hit in the mouth on Saturday in Houston. The Sooners played well the first 20-25 minutes and then the game flipped quickly with the kick 6. The OU rushing attack didn’t get the touches it deserved (Perine getting hurt played a major role). Baker Mayfield held on to the ball too long and let’s just ignore the OU secondary. This week the Sooners host the ULM Warhawks who have a new coaching staff. ULM was awful on both sides of the ball last year. They return most of their offense and secondary.

No chance ULM wins this game. But I don’t think Oklahoma runs it up on them. I think OU will get an easy win and get their players off the field in order to be healthy for Ohio State next week which has become a must win.

Oklahoma 52 ULM 10


Central Michigan at Oklahoma St

Vegas line: OSU -21


Oklahoma State is finally settled on one QB this season in Mason Rudolph. JW Walsh is gone and that will probably mean more passes for the Pokes offense.  James Washington can play a little bit so expect him to be featured weekly. The OSU running game hasn’t been a major factor in a few seasons. Much of last year’s rushing failures have to do with issues on the offensive line.  Chris Carson will get his chance early this season to become the main back. The Chippewas were better at stopping the run than the pass. The pass rush wasn’t there last season. CMU’s secondary returns most key players and that will give them a chance to slow down the passing game of OSU.


Emmanuel Ogbah and Jimmy Bean are major losses for the OSU defense. Ogbah was one of the best defensive lineman in the country. Even with those two, the OSU defense was just in the top 40 in efficiency. The secondary returns a lot from last year which should help and the linebackers also have depth.  Central Michigan on offense is basically a budget version OSU. They can only throw the ball and their running game leaves a lot to be desired. Maybe Devon Spalding is going to break out this year. He had a major game last week with 135 yards on 15 carries. The WR group is pretty much intact from last season with Jesse Knoll leading the way.

Oklahoma State should get the win because CMU doesn’t have the talent. If the Chips can do their best Oklahoma State impression on offense then this game could be interesting.

CMU 21 OSU 38


UTEP at Texas

Vegas line: UT -30

Have you heard about the 18-wheeler package at Texas? Texas had an offense on Sunday night and it was treated like the 4th of July in Austin. It was a big win for Charlie Strong and UT. Shane Buechele looked ready as a freshman to lead a major program. Also having a guy in the backfield who runs over people like D’Onta Foreman isn’t a bad way to start a career.  Buechele will face a UTEP defense that gave up big play after big play last year. The Miner rush defense was better than the pass defense. Opponents lit up the secondary consistently last season. If Buechele is on again, then that pattern will be the same. The defensive line will be the strength of the UTEP defense. Can they slow Foreman down enough to keep it respectable?



UTEP has a new OC with a familiar name to Baylor fans. Brent Pease will make another trip to Austin to try to upset the Longhorns. This time around Pease may have a star on the offense in Aaron Jones. Jones ran for almost 250 yards last week in the Miners win over New Mexico State. UTEP’s main issue offensively is going to be quarterback play. Zack Greenlee got the start last week. But he is hurt and isn’t expected to play Saturday. Enter Kavika Johnson. Johnson didn’t throw a pass in week 1 and going against the UT defense won’t be easy. Johnson has some dual-threat ability which should give the Miners more options.

UTEP 20 Texas 49


Arkansas at TCU

Vegas line: TCU -7.5


Neither Arkansas nor TCU was impressive in week 1. Louisiana Tech was put away late by Arkansas and a good South Dakota State team gave TCU a game. But both teams survived week 1 and now one team will get a major win early in the season in week 2.


Arkansas had one of the best offenses in the country last season led by Brandon Allen. They were efficient and would score consistently. Now Allen, Alex Collins, and Hunter Henry are gone and the skill positions need to be reloaded. Easily enough Austin Allen (Brandon’s brother) is now the starting QB. Rawleigh Williams is taking over the reins at running back. The Hogs would like to have a consistent running game and then get the big pass when they get the defense selling out for the run. Losing 3 experienced offensive linemen will make for an adjustment period. The new offensive line from the Hogs will face a TCU front that is forgiving at the point of attack, but TCU is loaded at linebacker. The TCU secondary is great at safety while the corners may give away some chances. When it comes to coaching defense, Gary Patterson knows what he is doing.


The Razorbacks return close to everyone from their 2015 defense. The defensive front could stop the run, but they didn’t have a pass rush to create havoc in the backfield. The lack of pass rush and a young secondary led to passing teams doing whatever they wanted through the air. And that will be the plan for the Frogs on Saturday. Kenny Hill is coming off a good opening performance in Ft. Worth. TCU would like to cut down on the interceptions, but all and all it was a good start. In order for the passing game to hit its potential, the rushing game is going to have to get going. New starting back Kyle Hicks couldn’t move the chains against SDSU last week. Hicks and the brand new line will have to move the chains to keep Arkansas from eating up the clock.

This should be one of the best games of the day. TCU gets a close W because of the defense. The TCU running game could decide this game.


Arkansas 21 TCU 24


Iowa State at Iowa

Vegas line: Iowa -15


I’ll make this one brief. When you lose to a FCS team then there isn’t much positive to say. ISU can’t run the ball at all. Last week Northern Iowa held ISU to 51 yards rushing or 2.0 yards per carry. If you can’t run the ball then you have to take to the air. Unfortunately for Cyclone QB Joel Lanning, the Iowa secondary is very good. Desmond King will take the ISU top WR threat out of the game. I don’t like the matchup at all for ISU.


ISU 14 Iowa 34