Preview: Baylor Soccer Visits Houston for Regular Season Finale

Starting with the bottom line for Big 12 conference tournament qualification:

• Baylor can move on even with a loss to Houston as long as one or both of Iowa State or Cincinnati loses their respective matchups.
• Baylor moves on with a draw or win over Houston no matter what the other results are.
• The Bears could be as low as the No. 10 seed or as high as the No. 7 seed, meaning that they will have to play in the first round on Saturday, September 28th. 
• The winner of the 7/10 matchup will play the No. 2 seed and the winner of the 8/9 matchup will play the No. 1 seed in the second round on the following Monday. Those top seeds will belong to national No. 6 Texas Tech (23 points) and No. 7 BYU (21 points) with a chance that TCU (20 points) overcomes one of them.

While seeding is not so clearly under the Bears’ control, making the conference tournament is pretty much up to Baylor and their game on Monday — outside of the chance of a “bailout” despite a loss. Bailout might be a bit harsh, but I digress.

“Our destiny is in our own hands, right?,” said assistant coach Lea Sedwick Caffey, “Now we can control it to a certain extent as much as you can control the game.”

So the focus of the Bears is solely on the Houston Cougars and building momentum heading into the win-or-go-home postseason

With Baylor sitting 95th in RPI, the NCAA Tournament is out of reach without winning the Big 12 Tournament, so everything is step-by-step at this point.

So what sort of challenges will the Cougars present to the Bears and their goals?

“They said they like to play a little,” said Baylor midfielder Skye Leach, “But now they have to win so they're playing more direct.”

That shift is not out of the ordinary and it is something that Michelle Lenard purposely decided against last season at Baylor in favor of a commitment to improving her possession-based style despite results. Neither choice is decidedly better for any program.

Along those lines, set pieces are an area of the game where Houston has found goals much like Cincinnati. The Bears gave up two set-piece goals to the Bearcats including an 86th-minute equalizer.

“I’m sure the team feels the same way, but we've been talking about it as a coaching staff, like almost like how angry we are about that [Cincinnati] game and that last goal,” said Coach Sedwick Caffey, “And so definitely added some fuel moving forward.”

With a draw and a loss in the last two games, the whole Baylor team is hungry to get back in the win column. The defense and goalkeepers in particular are ready to prove that they are better than those results. With none of the three goals against the Bears in those two games coming from open play, the Green-and-Gold defense has a good argument there.

“[TCU was] frustrating in a sense of, ‘we can still play with them’,” said Baylor goalkeeper Ashlee Zirkel, “And we could have come away with a tie. But also rewarding in a sense that we can play with a team that's ranked that high.”

The Bears' chance to get back on track and secure a postseason appearance will kick off on Monday night at 7 PM CST. All other Big 12 games on the final match day will also kick off at 7 PM except for Cincinnati at West Virginia.