Baylor Baseball Season Preview: Top Three Questions Heading into 2024
As Baylor baseball’s Opening Day matchup against Nebraska (Feb. 16) at Globe Life Field approaches, it's time to start breaking down the roster, plus the biggest storylines and questions heading into the 2024 season.
Today, we’ll assess the top three questions surrounding the team going into the spring. So far, we’ve looked at the top returners, the top newcomers and the top wildcards. In the coming weeks, I’ll give a comprehensive season preview and highlight the most impactful freshmen on head coach Mitch Thompson’s squad going into Year Two.
Who’s in the Weekend Rotation?
Last Friday, Thompson noted, “Who’s going to end up in the starting rotation, the backend of a ballgame, those are still things that will have to be figured out. But we have more guys who can go three or four innings at a time, and then we’ll piece it together and see how it goes. If we can find some real starters that can step up and give us five, six, seven innings each time out, then we’ll turn cartwheels and be real pumped about it.”
From Thompson’s tone, it doesn’t sound like he expects the starters to go deep into ballgames regularly and is leaning more toward using the bullpen as much as possible to get through games. While everything may not be in place, I’ll still give my best guess for who gets the first crack at the weekend rotation.
Collin McKinney is a 6-foot-5 redshirt freshman righty who is coming off of Tommy John surgery. Throughout the fall and early this spring, he has consistently been sitting in the mid-90s on his fastball. McKinney has one of the higher ceilings on the team and is someone who probably should have free rein to grow through his mistakes on the mound.
As a starter last season, junior RHP Mason Marriott had solid performances against Kanas State, Oklahoma, West Virginia and TCU, where he allowed five earned runs across 20.1 innings tossed. But against Oklahoma State, Kansas, Texas and Texas Tech, he surrendered 28 earned runs over 14.1 innings. Consistency and command will both be things that can either make or break Marriott’s season.
Senior righty Jared Matheson is another candidate for the weekend rotation. In 2023, Matheson regularly saw time as the midweek starter, and in games against non-Power Five competition, he held a 2.71 ERA across 35.1 innings. In minimal action against Big 12 competition, Matheson allowed four earned runs and handed out 10 free passes in just 3.1 innings of work.
I think any concern over Baylor not having clear-cut starters is legitimate and completely fair. It’s easily my biggest question surrounding the team heading into the season. Baylor’s pitching staff combined to have a 6.36 ERA in 2023, an unfathomable number, but it’s not necessarily a guarantee that the 2024 squad will be better.
Starting Lineup – Odd Guys Out?
Something that’s been a consistent talking point on my end since the departure of Freshman All-American Kolby Branch to the transfer portal was that the lineup was going to be much improved in 2024 with or without him.
For much of last season, the batting order was significantly top-heavy. Once you got past the likes of Branch, Hunter Teplanszky and Hunter Simmons, it felt like a revolving door of inconsistent play four through nine.
While Cort Castle and Gavin Brzozowski ended the year on high notes, the lineup still lacked the adequate depth and proper mix of contact and power to be competitive in the Big 12 on a nightly basis.
This offseason, Thompson pulled the right strings with junior college and transfer portal additions – starting with outfielders Ty Johnson (MCC) and Enzo Apodaca (Gonzaga) and infielders Tyriq Kemp (Western Oklahoma CC) and Mason Greer (Missouri State). I touched on those four additions more in-depth last week, but I anticipate all four of those guys making major impacts and starting immediately.
Two other under-the-radar additions were infielder Jack Little (Wichita State) and designated hitter Wesley Jordan (Navarro). Little will bring speed and contact, while Jordan, who hit 16 home runs in 2023, will bring power and slugging to the heart of the lineup.
With returners Teplanszky (46 GS, .308 BAVG, .430 OB%), Castle (30 GS, .299 BAVG, .364 OB%) and Brzozowski (39 GS, .247 BAVG, .367 OB%) all coming off solid seasons, I think there’s a reason for serious optimism with the batting order.
Surprisingly, even though Simmons (42 GS, .297 BAVG, .374 OB%) and Posey (47 GS, .279 BAVG, .397 OB%) were significant contributors last season, I anticipate both of them to be the first bats off the bench, which is a good problem to have and speaks to the depth of Thompson’s squad heading into Year Two.
Projected 2024 Starters + Bench:
- C: Castle/Buchanan/Caley
- 1B: Greer/Pendergrass
- 2B: Little/Posey
- SS: Kemp
- 3B: Teplanszky/Pendergrass
- LF: Brzozowski/Simmons
- CF: Johnson
- RF: Apodaca
- DH: Jordan/Simmons
Which Young Arms Will be Depended on the Most?
With Baylor lacking an abundance of clear-cut, reliable veterans on the pitching staff, Thompson will have to lean heavily on the young arms on the roster this spring.
The true freshman pitchers are Jack Elizondo (LHP), Mason Green (LHP), Stephen Sepulveda (RHP), Jackson Wilkerson (LHP), RJ Ruais (LHP) and Jack Surdey (RHP).
While I’m not aware of a clear pecking order yet, I do think Wilkerson and Elizondo were the most impressive of the bunch in the fall scrimmages I attended. They both were able to consistently hit the strike zone and get outs, but that isn’t to say Green, Sepulveda and Surdey didn’t have their moments as well.
Naturally, when you’re relying on such young guys, it’s really tough to gauge how they’ll perform under the bright lights. I definitely anticipate there to be a learning curve for most of them, but I’m excited to see what they are capable of. I’d much prefer Thompson roll out the younger guys and see what they are made of, as opposed to trotting out older Steve Rodriguez recruits who were average and had already hit their ceiling.
Other younger arms include redshirt freshmen righties Collin McKinney and Tanner Duke, whom I touched on a little more in-depth in the “Top Wildcards” article.
Lastly is returning sophomore lefty Ethan Calder. Calder, originally recruited to be an outfielder, turned into one of Baylor’s most reliable arms out of the bullpen last season. Outside of a six-run clunker early in the year against Duke, Calder surrendered 11 earned runs across 18.2 innings tossed against Power Five teams as a true freshman.
He won’t overpower you with velocity, but he has good stuff and can get outs consistently. Regardless of where Calder ends up, whether that be in the bullpen or the weekend rotation, he’ll be one of the guys Thompson leans on the most this spring.