S11's Stats Breakdown: Duke Blue Devils

Statistics don't ever tell us the whole story but they can tell us a lot.  This article is an attempt to introduce what Duke has done statistically over the last year, give it some context, and give some background before my premium X's and O's article comes out later.

Statistical Comparison

Over the past twelve games against FBS teams the Blue Devils are 5-7 with capable but not elite offensive production.  They completed 62.77% of their passes, get a very good 74% of the points available to them in the red zone, and move the ball at a reasonable 31.68 yards per drive.  They give up a mediocre 6.29% sack rate and run the ball at a reasonable but not dominant 4.54 yards per non-sack carry.

Defensively the Blue Devils struggled throughout 2016 and while they started 2017 off great against Northwestern it is still only one game against FBS competition.  They allowed 36 yards per drive which is well above where you want to be.  They struggle on points per drive and yards per non-sack carry defensively but do a good job on sack rate and red zone scoring rate though.

Yards Per Drive Comparison By Game

The graphic below shows what Duke averaged in yards per drive for their 2016 games against FBS opponents as well as their 2017 game against Northwestern.  It also shows what that opponent gave up to other teams, and the background color shows whether those numbers would be good, average, or bad for a typical offense.  (*Note:  Northwestern has played one other game in 2017, their comparison number is 2016's season average)

As you can see the Duke Offense struggled to begin 2016 outside of one game against the then-reeling Irish defense.  Their worst outing was against Army.  However the following week Duke began a run where they would exceed expectations in every game except for Pittsburgh.  The best outings were against Virginia Tech, North Carolina, and this season's game against Northwestern.



Below is the same kind of chart for the defense.  The Devils started 2016 pretty average yet aside from the 2016 Army game and last week against Northwestern they really struggled against everyone else.  The worst outing was naturally Louisville and Lamar Jackson.  They did outperform expectations against UNC despite giving up a high yardage per drive figure.

Final Thoughts

The Blue Devils were a solid team last season that almost made it to a bowl and will be a big challenge for a young Baylor team under a new staff.  Duke played much better the last two weeks than Baylor did but their track record shows they aren't world beaters and the Bears have enough talent to win if they can clean up the very sloppy play that has plagued them the last two weeks.

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