Survey Results: Baylor Football’s 2025 Season Expectations, Predictions and Key Matchups

Last week, Baylor football released its complete 2025 schedule. Following the release, SicEm365 sent out a survey with 13 questions, mostly multiple-choice, to measure the fanbase’s excitement and expectations for the upcoming season. A total of 350 people filled out the survey; this article is an accumulation of responses and answers.

*charts of the answers are attached in the comment section of SicEm365 Premium Insider*

Question (#1): What’s your record prediction for Baylor this fall?

• 9-3 (44%), 10-2 (28%), 8-4 (15%), 11-1 (4%), 7-5 (3%), 12-0 (1%), 6-6 (1%), 5-7 (1%)

Coming off an exciting 8-5 season, expectations are high for head coach Dave Aranda’s squad going into 2025. The majority of people who filled out the survey believe the Bears will either match or surpass eight wins, with 44% saying nine wins, 28% saying 10 wins and 15% saying eight wins.

Question (#2): Which game are you most excited for this season?

• Auburn (68%), TCU (18%), SMU (7%), Arizona State (5%)

Right out of the gates, Baylor will have a huge but winnable test against the Auburn Tigers, who are coming off a 5-7 season under head coach Hugh Freeze. The fanbase should show up in full force for the Bears' highly anticipated season-opener on Aug. 30, with 68% of the people who filled out the survey saying they are most excited about the matchup against the Tigers. Hopefully, it’s a night game at McLane Stadium, so everyone involved can avoid the scorching Texas sun.

SicEm365

Expectations are high for head coach Dave Aranda’s squad going into 2025.

As always, a good chunk of the fanbase (18%) is most excited for Baylor’s rivalry matchup against TCU, which will be at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth on Oct. 18. The Bears will look to get back-to-back wins over the Horned Frogs for the first time since 2013-2014.

Following the Auburn matchup, Baylor will travel up Interstate 35 to face former Southwest Conference foe SMU, which tallied 7% of the poll. The Mustangs made the College Football Playoff in their inaugural season in the ACC and are a program on the rise. The early-season test should be a barometer for how good the Bears will be.

Question (#3): Who would be the biggest win on Baylor’s schedule?

• Auburn (47%), Arizona State (33%), TCU (16%), SMU (2%)

Similar to the previous question, most of the respondents (47%) believe that beating Auburn would be the biggest win on Baylor’s schedule. Anytime the Big 12 has a head-to-head battle against an SEC opponent, it’s a big opportunity to show the world and the blue-blood-driven college football media conglomerates that the non-SEC programs can play.

A month later, the Bears will open conference play against the reigning Big 12 Champion Arizona State Sun Devils. While ASU is losing star running back Cam Skattebo to the NFL Draft, the majority of the rest of the team’s production is returning, including rising redshirt sophomore quarterback Sam Leavitt. Roughly 33% of the people who filled out the survey believe this would be Baylor’s biggest win of the season, and it’d be hard to argue if the Bears can knock off the reigning conference champs to open Big 12 play.

Question (#4): Who might give the Bears an unexpected loss?

• Oklahoma State (51%), Houston (19%), Arizona (18%), Kansas State (2%), Utah (2%), TCU (2%), SMU (2%)

Oklahoma State is coming off an uncharacteristic disastrous season. The Cowboys went winless in conference play and finished with a 3-9 record — the worst mark of the Mike Gundy era. 

Speaking of Gundy, there was serious smoke toward the end of the year that Gundy would part ways with his alma mater, but the two ended up agreeing to a contract extension that will bring Gundy back this fall for his 21st season at the helm of the Cowboys.

Regardless of how Oklahoma State rebounds, over half of the survey respondents (51%) believe the Pokes will more than likely give Baylor a run for its money on Sept. 27 in Stillwater.

Around 19% of the survey respondents said the Bears' regular-season finale against Houston could be an unexpected loss, and another 18% said Baylor’s trip to Tuscon on Nov. 22 could be dangerous.

Houston made waves this offseason with the addition of Texas A&M transfer quarterback Conner Weigman to lead the Cougars this year. While UH was abysmal on offense in 2024, the defense was stout and gave the Bears one of their toughest tests of the season in a sloppy 20-10 late-November Baylor win.

Arizona is desperate for a bounce-back season after going 4-8 under first-year head coach Brent Brennan. When Baylor visits the Grand Canyon State in late November, the Wildcats could be vying for a bowl game, and it’ll be the first time the Bears will have ever played in Tuscon.

Question (#5): Are you disappointed Baylor won't be playing Texas Tech?

• Yes (64%), Indifferent (18%), No (18%)

This fall will mark the first time since 1955 that the Bears and Red Raiders won’t face off.

With former BU assistant Joey McGuire now in Lubbock as Texas Tech’s head coach, the rivalry has grown into one of Baylor’s most anticipated games on the schedule in recent years.

Baylor Athletics

Baylor will not be playing Texas Tech for the first time since 1955.

Across the Bears’ last two trips to West Texas, Baylor has outscored the Red Raiders 104-52, with 21 of Texas Tech’s points coming in the fourth quarter of the 59-35 blowout loss at the hands of quarterback Sawyer Robertson and Baylor on Oct. 19.

This offseason, the Red Raiders, who are seeking their first outright conference title in 70 years, have made headlines and, according to On3, have the nation's No. 1 transfer portal class. ESPN reported on Tuesday that TTU’s portal surge cost over $10 million.

With Texas Tech gearing up for a potentially big season, 64% of people who filled out the survey wanted to see the Bears have a shot of winning back-to-back games over their in-state rival. In comparison, 18% either felt indifferent, and another 18% didn’t want to see the Red Raiders play in McLane Stadium this fall.

Question (#6): Would you prefer that Baylor plays TCU on “rivalry week” to close the regular season?

• Yes (62%), Indifferent (27%), No (11%)

One area where most Baylor and TCU fans might find common ground is that the Bears and Horned Frogs should play in the final week of the regular season, as 62% of people who filled out the survey said, and that the nickname “Revivalry” is significantly better and more meaningful than “Bluebonnet Battle.”

While TCU has had Baylor’s number for much of the last 15 years, with a 10-5 record in that span, eight contests were decided by seven or fewer points, including this season when kicker Isaiah Hankins delivered a walk-off field goal to give the Bears a 37-34 victory and break a four-game losing streak to the Horned Frogs. As the game-winning kick sailed through the uprights, students began to pour onto McLane Stadium’s turf as a testament to how much the game means between the two fanbases.

As television exposure grows increasingly important in modern college football, an argument could be made that one of the better rivalries in the sport — Baylor vs. TCU — might be better off in the middle of the season instead of fighting for ratings against the likes of Michigan/Ohio State, Texas/Texas A&M, Alabama/Auburn, etc. on the final weekend of the season. 

Regardless, “rivalry week” is meant for rivals to deck it out, and as TCU and Baylor aim to be perennial contenders in the new iteration of the Big 12, it’s more fun if the two are playing at the end of the season when the stakes are the highest.

Question (#7): Does Baylor have a legitimate chance to make the College Football Playoff?

• Yes (68%), No (19%), Not Sure (13%)

Although it’s been evident by the responses throughout the poll, it’s worth mentioning — again — that expectations are high this fall for the Bears. Roughly 68% of the people who filled out the survey believe Baylor has a legitimate chance to make the CFP, while 19% say no, and 19% say they aren’t sure.

Question (#8): Is the new 12-team College Football Playoff better for Baylor long-term?

• Yes (91%), Not Sure (5%), No (3%)

After Baylor fans learned the hard way in the inaugural four-team College Football Playoff when eventual national champion Ohio State jumped the Bears to become the No. 4 seed in 2014, there will always be some hesitancy among the fanbase that Baylor won’t get the benefit of the doubt over a blue blood.

Jack Mackenzie - SicEm365

91% of respondents say the 12-team CFP is better for Baylor long-term.

In the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff, the Big 12 champion gets an automatic bid, which, according to this poll, could very well be Baylor this fall. In the short term, the 12-team playoff at least guarantees a seat at the table for a school like Baylor to compete for a National Championship, and in the long term, consistently vying for a playoff spot could help build the program’s exposure and reputation.

While the rest of the conference — No. 13 BYU (11-2) and No. 15 Iowa State (11-3) — didn’t garner much attention during the CFP selection process this season, it’ll be interesting if the Big 12 becomes a two-bid league moving forward after the showing No. 4 Arizona State (11-3) had in its overtime loss to No. 5 Texas (13-3), who was a two-touchdown favorite, in the CFP quarter-finals.

Question (#9): What would you consider to be a disappointing season?

• 7 or less wins (41%), 8 or less wins (38%), 9 or less wins (10%), 6 or less wins (7%), 10 or less wins (3%)

The last time Baylor had this high of expectations entering a season was in 2022, when the Bears were picked to win the conference but lost an early road contest in overtime against No. 21 BYU and stumbled across the finish line with a four-game losing streak to close the year.

This time around, Baylor doesn’t have to replace as much talent as it did following the 2021 Big 12 Championship season. The Bears are returning nine-of-11 starters on offense and about half of the starters on defense. Unlike the offseason leading into 2022, Aranda and Co. were willing to use the transfer portal and added 11 newcomers this winter.

At a bare minimum, the people who filled out the survey expect Baylor to reach bowl eligibility, but while 41% would consider seven or fewer wins disappointing, over 50% of the responders believe the Bears should exceed their 2024 win total of eight games.

Question (#10): Are you excited about the trajectory of the program moving forward?

• Yes (90%), Not Sure (9%), No (1%)

Oh, what a difference a year makes. Last year, the response to this question would have been completely flipped. After the Bears closed the season with wins in six of their final seven games, over 90% of the people who completed the survey believe the program is on a positive trajectory, while 9% are in wait-and-see mode and 1% aren’t satisfied.

Discussions of Aranda being on the hot seat have cooled considerably, and there’s tangible momentum surrounding the program for the first time in a few years, whether that be on the field or off the field with recruiting where the Bears are currently laying the foundation for an extremely impressive 2026 class.

Question (#11): Far too early prediction for offensive MVP?

• QB Sawyer Robertson (78%), RB Bryson Washington (19%), WR Josh Cameron (3%)

As expected, rising senior quarterback Sawyer Robertson took home 78% of the vote for next year’s offensive MVP. Robertson had a stellar junior campaign in which he threw for over 3,000 yards and combined for 30-plus touchdowns, both through the air and on the ground.

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RB Bryson Washington was named a Freshman All-American by The Athletic.

Across the back-half of the season, Robertson struggled with an ankle injury that hindered his scrambling ability. Now that he’s fully healed, Robertson is entering his first offseason as the “the guy” and has been noted by some publications as a darkhorse Heisman Trophy candidate for 2025.

Despite missing the season's first two games, running back Bryson Washington took the nation by storm with over 1,000 yards and 13 touchdowns in 10 games; he was later named to The Athletic’s Freshman All-American team. After Washington went down early in the first quarter against LSU in the Texas Bowl, the Bears could never create a consistent ground game, demonstrating the importance of the Franklin native to Baylor’s offense.

As a side note, most survey submissions came before the exciting news that wide receiver Ashtyn Hawkins was granted another season of eligibility. Even with Hawkins and wide receiver Josh Cameron returning, the majority of votes anticipate Robertson or Washington being Baylor’s offensive MVP this fall.

Question (#12): Far too early prediction for defensive MVP?

• LB Keaton Thomas (75%), DL Jackie Marshall (14%), S Devin Turner (7%), CB Calvin Simpson-Hunt (2%)

Linebacker Keaton Thomas was a home-run transfer for the Bears last offseason. Thomas earned First-Team All-Big 12 honors and finished with 114 tackles, seven for loss and 2.5 sacks. Thomas immediately brought swagger, intensity and leadership to Baylor’s defense and is expected to do much of the same as a redshirt junior this season.

Some of the other vote-getters included defensive lineman Jackie Marshall (RSr.), Northwestern transfer safety Devin Turner (7%) and Ohio State transfer cornerback Calvin Simpson Hunt (2%), who was a late transfer portal pickup and was formerly a top-100 prospect in the 2023 class.