Predicting the 2024 Big 12 Season: Week 3
My preseason series predicting every single Big 12 game of the 2024 season continues today with week No. 2 as the challenges ramp up across the conference.
Previous Weeks: Week 1 | Week 2
Thursday, September 12th
Arizona State 31 at Texas State 41
This one is going to be really fun in the middle of the week. The Sun Devils are going to be in for a very concerning week as they are going on the road to face a team that finished as the No. 11 offense in the nation a season ago and appear like they could be even better this season. I expect a bit of a shootout, as both these teams played in a physical matchup just five days earlier. This favors the Bobcats as QB Jordan McCloud and running back Ismail Mahdi go wild as they total over 450 yards of offense. The Sun Devils battle back with a 150-yard performance by Cam Skettebo, and Sam Leavitt throws two touchdowns. The shootout is on in San Marcos, and Texas State’s ability to attack mismatches challenges this inexperienced Sun Devils secondary, which ultimately leads to the loss for Arizona State on the road.
Friday, September 13th
UNLV 24 at Kansas 48
No defense will be played in this game, especially by UNLV. The Jayhawks are going to run wild in this one against a weak defensive line. This game won’t be as close as the bowl game was last season. Jalon Daniels hits on a couple of deep shots of touchdowns to Lawrence Arnold and Quentin Skinner, but they focus on running the ball as they pile on over 300 yards on the ground. Star cornerback Cobie Bryant comes down with a pick-six as well, as this one is not close. UNLV will score some but will never really be in this game.
Arizona 23 at Kansas State 34
Kansas State sets the tone of the game early and often by winning at the line of scrimmage consistently. The rushing attack gets going, and they force Arizona to rely solely on its passing attack to win this game on the road. That’s a problem. Quarterback Avery Johnson runs for 120 yards and two scores to go along with 220 yards through the air. Running back DJ Giddens continues his early season tear with two more scores and more than 100 yards of rushing. Zona finds ways to connect on throws down the field, which keeps this game relatively close, but it really is never in doubt as they are too one-dimensional offensively and defensively. They can’t win up front enough. Statement win for Kansas State.
Saturday, September 14th
Cincinnati 23 at Miami (OH) 17
The Bearcats are off to a strong start this year, but now they are about to go on the road to face a really solid Miami (OH) team that beat them a year ago. This is going to be a defensive battle where the more physical team will win. Last year that was Miami (OH) but this year I think it will be Cincy especially in an offensive line vs. defensive line matchup. This game is ugly, but RB Corey Kiner wills the offense to points, and WR Xzavier Henderson comes down with a few key catches, including a 30-yard touchdown in the 2nd half. Cincy keeps rolling but this one will be close.
North Texas 28 at Texas Tech 45
TCU transfer QB Chandler Morris is leading the Mean Green into Lubbock with hopes of pulling off a big upset, but it’s not gonna happen. Texas Tech will give up some points in this one as UNT has some offensive weapons, but the Red Raiders aren’t going to be stopped offensively. Tahj Brooks continues to dominate on the ground with another 150 yards and three touchdown game. Behren Morton has himself a day with over 300 yards passing as he spreads the ball all over the field with Coy Eakin having the biggest game as a pass catcher with two scores. Tech forces two turnovers, which makes up for the yards they will give up in this one, but ultimately, Tech never really breaks a sweat in this one.
Oklahoma State 47 at Tulsa 17
The Cowboys are about to do whatever they want on the offensive side of the ball as the Golden Hurricane were terrible on defense last season and will be worst this year. Ollie Gordon goes for 150 yards and three scores while Alan Bowman gets the passing attack going with three touchdowns of his own. OSU scores and they keep scoring on the road. Tulsa scores a little bit thanks to a strong showing by running back Anthony Watkins, but it is far from enough to challenge this one.
West Virginia 27 at Pitt 17
The Mountaineers have to be excited about the chance to go on the road with the much better team in a rivalry matchup. Pitt has the look of a team that is about to miss out on a bowl game once again this season, but they play hard in this one. Both defenses play a physical brand of football and keep the offenses in check until the 2nd half when Pitt’s inability to move the ball crushes them as they post three straight three-and-outs, which leads to the Mountaineers taking control of the game behind quarterback Garrett Greene. He churns out first downs and, ultimately, 13 unanswered points to give West Virginia a comfortable lead they can sit on toward the end.
Utah 38 at Utah State 17
This is a weird road matchup for the Utes coming off the big win over Baylor and with an upcoming matchup on the road next week against Oklahoma State so this feels like a trap matchup. But Utah State isn’t good enough to take advantage of that. Utah moves the ball well throughout thanks to a steady diet of Micah Bernard, Jaylon Glover and Anthony Woods in the run game. The secondary gives up some points in this one, but Utah comes away with a comfortable win in a trap situation thanks to a stout rush defense and a pound-the-rock mentality on offense.
Air Force 17 at Baylor 34
Air Force will be good this year, but they won’t be as good as they were a season ago. They replace too much and will not be tested enough the two weeks prior to the Baylor game. I expect the Bears' tempo and spread offense to be an issue for the Falcons as Dequan Finn impacts the game in a big way with his feet and his arm on his way to totaling 300 yards of total offense and three touchdowns. Baylor’s slot targets Monaray Baldwin and Ashtyn Hawkins thrive in this one taking advantage of a depleted safety core. The Bear's defense got tested on the ground last week and will get tested in this one, too, but they are up for the challenge as they keep Air Force to under three yards per carry. The Bears win up front, get out to a lead, and never look back.
Colorado 41 at Colorado State 23
This game was very chippy a year ago, and I expect more of the same, but I think Colorado will handle it better. Shedeur Sanders throws for over 300 yards and three scores plus Dallas Hayden goes for 100 yards on the ground as they consistently move the offense up and down the field. Colorado State moves the ball but can’t convert in the red zone and turn the ball over twice. Travis Hunter catches a touchdown and has an interception in this one as he has a statement game. Buffs roll.
UCF 33 at TCU 27
This is a bad matchup for the Horned Frogs. The Knights get after the quarterback well and have a good secondary with a few very good guys returning. This combination is going to be a problem for a team that will be relying a lot on its passing attack. On the flip side, TCU is going to do everything it can to stop UCF from running the ball and have some guys who should slow things down. Ultimately I think this game is going to come down to quarterback play and I believe KJ Jefferson’s impact running the football will be key. He will give the Knights a great chance to get first downs and points. TCU QB Josh Hoover will hit on some throws, but the Knights's pass rush and secondary will provide some challenges and ultimately lead to a couple of turnovers. This game stays close as it is in Fort Worth, but the Knights find a way to steal one on the road.
Rice 17 at Houston 24
The Owls are bringing back a ton of guys on defense which allows them to slow down Houston significantly. Unfortunately, the Rice offense is not good, so the Cougars will be able to stifle EJ Warner and Dean Connors for the most part. This might be the one game on Houston’s schedule where they will win a lot of the game in the trenches. Donovan Smith runs the ball 25 times in this game for 75 yards and two touchdowns to go along with 180 yards and a score through the air. He leads the Cougars to a hard-fought and ugly win, which will feature six combined turnovers. It was an ugly one, but Willie Fritz gets win No. 2 on the board in year one.
BYU 13 at Wyoming 10
This is going to be a defensive battle for the Cougars and Cowboys. BYU’s stars on defense play like it as DE Tyler Batty finishes with two sacks and a forced fumble, plus LB Ben Bywater posts double-digit tackles and a sack. The Cougar's defense holds Wyoming to under 100 yards rushing and just takes the game over. The BYU offense struggles but LJ Martin and Gerry Bohanon do enough on the ground to score the points needed in order to get out of Laramie with a very close win.
Big 12 Standings
1. UCF — 3-0 (1-0)
2. Kansas — 3-0 (0-0)
2. Kansas State — 3-0 (0-0)
2. Colorado — 3-0 (0-0)
2. Texas Tech — 3-0 (0-0)
2. Cincinnati — 3-0 (0-0)
2. Utah — 3-0 (0-0)
2. Oklahoma State — 3-0 (0-0)
9. Arizona — 2-1 (0-0)
9. Baylor — 2-1 (0-0)
9. BYU — 2-1 (0-0)
9. Houston — 2-1 (0-0)
9. West Virginia — 2-1 (0-0)
14. Iowa State — 1-1 (0-0)
15. Arizona State — 1-2 (0-0)
16. TCU — 2-1 (0-1)