Bowl Breakdown: The Big 12 Bowl Selection & Possible Opponents
With bowl season, it can be hard to predict matchups. Even after you dissect the rules and requirements around playoff matchups and the rotating bowls, which may be contracted with different conferences, there is an assortment of contracts with each conference for each bowl they partner with. That is true of a normal year, but when you add in the splintering of the Pac-12 and the uncertainty of how the bowls contracted with that conference react, it’s even more moving parts.
This article will hopefully give you an idea of the bowl process associated with the current Big 12 teams and who Baylor or another Big 12 team might play. I also have a quick snapshot of yards per drive relative to the schedule teams played for most opponents. Their yards per drive are compared against what other power teams allowed against them.
Starting Point: The Playoff
The Big 12 will get their champion into the playoff, so the winner of ISU-ASU will go to a playoff game. Whether they get a bye for the first round will depend on how the committee ranks the winner relative to other conference champions. Right now, the only conference title participant lower ranked is Clemson among the Power Four, and the Group of Five’s Boise State is ranked higher. Rather than play out many scenarios, I’ll wait and break down the eventual possible opponents once the playoff field is decided.
After The Playoff... We Have Two Draft Orders- Old Big 12 and Old Pac-12
The bowls with each of these leagues give a payout in exchange for how high in the draft order they get to pick. They have different league-specific processes regarding whether they have to adhere to rankings in picks or not and whether the league has significant input. With the Pac-12 dying, the contracts didn’t, so the former Pac-12 teams are bound to that selection process. So we have the following breakdown of Big 12 schools that are bowl-eligible under each process.
Big 12 Process: (7 Teams)
- 10-2 Iowa State
- 10-2 BYU
- 8-4 Baylor
- 8-4 Texas Tech
- 8-4 TCU
- 8-4 Kansas State
- 6-6 West Virginia
On the Big 12 side, the order after the playoff is:
1- Alamo (San Antonio, TX)
2- Pop Tarts Bowl (Orlando, FL)
3- Texas Bowl (Houston, TX)
4- Liberty Bowl (Memphis, TN)
5- Rate Bowl (Phoenix, AZ)
6- Usually rotates between Armed Forces Bowl (TCU’s Stadium in Fort Worth) and First Responder Bowl (SMU’s stadium in Dallas), but the Big 12 side lists “or ESPN Events Pool Games,” which probably explains where the previously unaffiliated Frisco Bowl ended up with West Virginia which was announced this week. ESPN owns all these bowls and sometimes will swap teams out with the agreement of the leagues and schools to make better matchups. If ISU misses the playoff, we may see another ESPN Bowl, the First Responder Bowl or the Armed Forces Bowl re-enter the picture.
Pac-12 Process: (2 Big 12 Teams, 7 Total)
- 10-2 Arizona State
- 9-3 Colorado
The entire list of old Pac-12 schools eligible includes 12-0 Oregon, 6-6 Washington, 6-6 USC, 6-6 Cal, 8-4 Wazzu, 10-2 ASU and 9-3 CU.
The order they go in after the playoff is:
1- Alamo Bowl
2- Holiday Bowl (San Diego, CA)
3- Las Vegas Bowl (Las Vegas, NV)
4- Sun Bowl (El Paso, TX)
5- LA Bowl (Los Angeles, CA)
6- Independence Bowl (Shreveport, LA)
Additionally, they have to take the records into account, which the Big 12 doesn’t. Effectively, you can only “jump” a team with a better record if they are one game better. So 9-3 Colorado potentially being selected over 10-2 ASU is okay, but 6-6 USC over either of them isn’t allowed. This used to be based on league record, but since there isn’t a league record anymore, it’s the overall record.
What that means is that assuming Oregon makes the playoff and ASU doesn’t (the worst realistic case for our two since UO is probably a lock), the worst outcome for any Big 12 school from the Pac-12 would be either the Holiday Bowl against the ACC or the Las Vegas Bowl against the SEC.
Alamo Has Top Pick.. For Both Big 12 & Pac-12 and They Narrowed It Down
The bowl announced it’s down to two teams from each selection order this week.
On the Pac-12 side, it’s not shocking that it’s down to ASU and Colorado. The only way they could realistically entertain another Pac-12 school is if ASU makes the playoff and they pass up Coach Prime’s Buffaloes to take Wazzu. However, they narrowed it down to the two Big 12 schools, ensuring an All-Big 12 game in the bowl.
On the Big 12 side, they don’t have to take the record into account but decided to narrow it down to the title-participating Iowa State Cyclones and the BYU Cougars, who almost made the title game and traveled incredibly well. There may have been some thought to taking any of the three Texas schools since they’d all travel well to San Antonio and have done so before, but the bowl ensuring a matchup that looked like two playoff contenders two weeks ago is a solid option.
If ISU wins, then BYU is a lock for this bowl, and the same is true for CU if ASU wins. The only variability is what happens between the title game loser and the other option. I expect Colorado to be here either way to avoid rematches. ASU played BYU, so if ISU wins, the Buffaloes versus ISU would be a new matchup where ASU-BYU just happened. If ASU wins, it’s CU by default.
Now, we are going to follow the Big 12 decision process and then pick up the Pac-12 one later.
Pop Tarts Bowl
This bowl will pit the next Big 12 selection team against the ACC. Historically, it’s the top ACC pick after the playoff bowls and/or former New Year’s Six bowls. Based on this, I assume it’s going to be one of the top-tier ACC teams, but other sources indicate it could be a free-for-all after the playoff. Technically, Notre Dame shares tie-ins with ACC bowls, but they likely go to the playoff. One of SMU and Clemson will lose the title game and possibly miss the playoffs. Miami has a difficult set of odds to make it. Then Syracuse, Miami, Louisville and Duke are the only other bowl-eligible ACC teams with fewer than five losses. I expect the selection to come from this group. I give a heavy advantage to Miami or Clemson here if they are available. A bowl in Orlando knows they’d be a big draw.
However, since it could possibly be a free for all regarding who goes to which ACC bowl, here’s the full list of possible candidates depending on who makes the playoff or misses it.
On the Big 12 side, if the Sun Devils beat the Cyclones, this makes for a pretty solid choice between BYU and ISU. Each would travel well, and the last time either was here was 2021 for ISU.
If ISU wins, it’s a certainty that the Alamo will take the Cougars. Then, the Pop-Tarts Bowl likely has to choose between taking 8-4 KSU for the second year in a row or picking one of the three 8-4 Texas schools. I could see any of the four being attractive options for them. Which way they’d pick is anyone’s guess.
Texas Bowl & Liberty Bowl
Why do I have them grouped together? Because the opponent is effectively the same group. The Texas Bowl picks right before the Liberty Bowl does and faces an SEC team. As for the SEC?
The Citrus Bowl (vs. the top Big Ten team) chooses the top SEC team outside the College Football Playoff bracket, which will now feature 12 programs.
After the Citrus Bowl selects a team, the conference, alongside the institutions and the bowls, will assign eligible SEC programs to the Liberty (vs. Big 12), ReliaQuest (Big Ten or ACC), Texas (Big 12), Gator (ACC), Music City (Big Ten) and Las Vegas/Duke’s Mayo Bowls.
Therefore, it isn’t a pecking order after the CFP and Citrus. It’s a “we pick who we want where.”
Assuming Texas and UGA are for sure in the playoff. Tennessee and Alabama are also possible. Then the Citrus picks, and it’s likely to take one from Ole Miss, Mizzou, Texas A&M or South Carolina. From there, it’s possibly any SEC-eligible team.
I expect the Texas Bowl to choose one of the three Texas teams from the Big 12. The only caveat is that if enough SEC teams push Texas A&M down the pecking order, they tend to avoid pitting Texas A&M against Texas teams. They decided not to MANY times when available and try to avoid potential in-state embarrassment. They’ll pit them against KSU, OSU, WVU, etc., but avoid the Texas schools.
If they pick a Texas school, I expect one of the western-oriented SEC teams other than Texas A&M to be the pick. Arkansas, LSU and Mizzou have been rumored. If KSU is the pick, I expect either Texas A&M, LSU, or maybe OU to be their pick to sell tickets and balance the matchup with a regional team.
Rate Bowl
After the two bowls against SEC teams, the Rate Bowl is up. It’s the only shot at the Big Ten that the Big 12 tie-ins allow outside the playoff. It’s the fifth selection from the Big 12 and the sixth from the Big Ten after the playoff.
Of the original Big Ten teams (Pac-12 additions are tied to Pac-12 bowl process) we have 11-1 Indiana, 11-1 Penn State and 10-2 Ohio State that are likely going to the playoff. 9-3 Illinois, 8-4 Iowa, 7-5 Michigan and 7-5 Minnesota are likely gone as well by the time the Rate Bowl arrives. That’s four picks. Then, allowing for one of those playoff teams to potentially miss, we can take a look at the rest of the options. It’s down to 7-5 Rutgers or 6-6 Nebraska. I don’t expect Baylor to fall this far, but if it does, it could match up against former coach Matt Rhule. I don’t expect Minnesota and Michigan to be available but depending on how tied to record their process is I will include them on the chart but it’s probably going to be Rutgers.
The Rate Bowl can use MWC teams as a backfill, so if the Big Ten runs out of teams, there could be the loser of UNLV vs Boise, Colorado State, or Fresno State. There isn’t a pecking order for the MWC, so a possible matchup with a Big 12 school would likely be attractive to them.
Frisco Bowl (WVU vs Memphis)
This one was set this week and was a complete surprise. The Big 12 technically has no tie to the Frisco Bowl, so obviously, ESPN made some deal. I have no idea if the deal was done in place of the Armed Forces Bowl or First Responder Bowl pick or not. Either way, WVU brings a good offense and struggling defense against one of the top teams in the AAC.
Memphis beat up on a weak schedule, and their only Power Four game was narrowly winning at Florida State, who finished 2-10 in the ACC. With that said, they beat a very good Tulane team. I omitted their defensive stats from the Navy game since the triple option is a unique offense to defend and doesn’t really translate to how WVU plays, and Memphis gave up 55 yards per drive in that one.
First Responder Bowl or Armed Forces Bowl or another ESPN Bowl...
If Iowa State loses the title game there is a chance one Big 12 team is still able to slide into an extra bowl. Without knowing which bowl it would be, it’s hard to predict where teams will fall. It would most likely involve a group of five teams if I had to guess. Since so many of those tie-ins are dependent on whether a Power Four league doesn’t fill all their slots, I will wait to break this one down. I expect the Army to play in the Independence Bowl, so it won’t likely be them, but Navy, ECU, UNT and UTSA are available from the AAC, while the MWC’s bowl-eligible teams are Boise State, UNLV, CSU or Fresno. Those are the two most media-attractive conferences, and I assume ESPN would steer one of that group to face a Big 12 team.
What If ASU Loses, What Happens To the Big 12 Newcomer Who Falls Past The Alamo?
The pecking order for the former Pac-12 side of the draft selection after the Alamo means that it would be either the Holiday Bowl or the Las Vegas Bowl.
Holiday Bowl
Holiday is up first, and if Arizona State is left over, their 10-2 record compared to Wazzu’s 8-4 record means the Sun Devils go to San Diego. If Colorado is left over, they will probably go to San Diego and the best remaining draw. Here are the potential opponents from the ACC since the pecking order isn’t set. It could be a huge matchup of former playoff contenders with either of the Big 12 options going against one of SMU or Miami or an uninspiring 6-6 team.
Las Vegas Bowl
However, technically, the Holiday Bowl could pick Washington State (8-4 vs. 9-3 CU), which would send CU to Vegas against the SEC. That basically ends up in the SEC selecting who among many teams goes, just like I went over with the Texas Bowl and Liberty Bowl sections.
Concluding Points
- The de facto conference matchup in the Alamo is unfortunate since it takes two chances for the new league to have its better teams take down another league’s teams.
- This isn’t because anyone is working against the Big 12; it’s just the contracts and the Alamo getting itself the best draw from the Pac-12 side. It’s not their fault USC, Washington, UCLA, Cal, and Stanford were .500 or worse. Why would they pass up the nine and 10 win schools for 6-6 or put a weaker brand, Wazzu, in there when two playoff contenders are available?
- That said, between the playoff, Pop Tarts Bowl, possibly the Holiday Bowl, and one of the SEC bowl matchups, there are some chances for winning a solid matchup and taking out another P4.
Hopefully, this helps clear the process and the realistic outcomes.
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