Opinion: Despite Series Loss in Lawrence, Baylor Baseball is Still on Track

Following a 9-1 loss to Kansas on Friday, March 14, things looked even bleaker for Mitch Thompson's Bears when they limped to a 14-7 defeat on Saturday and opened conference play with two consecutive losses.

Across those games, Baylor had been outscored 23-8 by the Jayhawks, out-hit 25-17 and surrendered 17 free passes — a season-high in a two-game span by a wide margin.

From the outside, all of the early momentum that Baylor had built came to a screeching halt. The bad vibes continued early into Sunday when Kansas left fielder Brady Counsell (Sr.) smoked a grand slam to give the Jayhawks an early 5-0 lead.

Instead of lying down and getting swept to open conference play, which probably would have happened in years past, Baylor clawed back into the series finale and chipped away at KU's lead until going ahead in the fifth inning on a two-out, two-run double from shortstop Tyriq Kemp (Sr.).

The Jayhawks tied the game at seven apiece before back-to-back run-scoring singles from Hunter Simmons (RSr.) and Pearson Riebock (Fr.) helped the Bears regain the lead in the eighth inning. 

Veteran righties Will Glatch (Sr.) and Gabe Craig (RSr.) handled the rest and secured the comeback win — the largest of Thompson's tenure — with six combined punchouts and 3.1 stellar innings out of the bullpen.

"I'm proud as heck of them," Thompson said of his ballclub to ESPN Central Texas post-game. "The fight, the guts and the courage to stand in here against a really good team, who's really hot, and on the road after they whipped you in the first two games. To come out here with a W is huge. It's a testament to who they are as people and to their character. I'm very proud of them."

Maybe to some, Baylor (15-5, 1-2) should have walked into Lawrence and taken care of business against a traditionally inferior Kansas program, but these aren't the same Jayhawks that have failed to reach the NCAA Tournament since 2014 and have had six losing seasons across the last decade.

Under third-year head coach Dan Fitzgerald, Kansas (17-4, 2-1) has one of the most talented lineups in the conference and is on pace to smash the program's home run record (75). The Jayhawks have cranked 46 long balls across their first 21 games and went viral on social media last week for tying an NCAA record with five consecutive home runs in a 29-1 victory over Minnesota.

The top of KU's order — Derek Cerda (Jr.), Brady Ballinger (So.), Jackson Hauge (Sr.), Dariel Osoria (Jr.) and Counsell — might be the most talented group of hitters Baylor will face all season. Among those with over 60 at-bats, Ballinger is in the top 10 in the Big 12 in batting average (.407), and Hauge leads the Big 12 in home runs (11). 

Even though the Jayhawks have faced the 173rd strength of schedule in the nation, the numbers they are putting up are still extremely impressive. They are atop the Big 12 by a wide margin in home runs (46), runs scored (207) and total bases (424).

Kansas also has the Big 12 preseason pitcher of the year, Dominic Voegle (So.), who shoved against the Bears on Friday night. The projected 2026 MLB Draft first-round pick tossed seven frames and fanned six while allowing just four baserunners on 106 pitches.

I'd argue Baylor has a top-half of the conference weekend rotation, but the three lefties — Ethan Calder (Jr.), Bryson Bales (6Sr.) and Carson Bailey (Fr.) — didn't fare well against a primarily right-handed Kansas lineup that crushes left-handed pitching; it also didn't help that the wind was blowing directly out to the left field on Friday and Saturday at Hoglund Ballpark. 

If a pitcher missed his spot, KU would make them pay. The Jayhawks were 17-for-48 (.354) at the plate with 11 extra-base hits against Baylor's starting rotation while 13-for-50 (.260) against righties, with roughly half of those hits versus right-handers coming in the series opener when the game was out of reach.

Ideally, Baylor would have opened conference play with a series win, but after the game got out of reach on Friday night, it was evident that Kansas was a legitimate team. Ironically, the back-to-back blowouts that opened the series allowed the Bears to keep some of their best bullpen arms — Grayson Murry (Jr.), Glatch and Craig — available for the finale.

Salvaging the series on Sunday was big for Baylor's postseason and conference aspirations, as well as the team's overall confidence. You always want to be careful about crowing a team this early, but I genuinely believe the Jayhawks have a good shot at making it to the NCAA Tournament, especially if they can get consistent pitching — time will tell if that proves true.

On Tuesday night in San Marcos, the Bears showed their ugly losses over the weekend were behind them and crushed Texas State in a run-rule 19-3 win, marking the largest margin of victory in the Thompson era and improving Baylor's record to 5-0 in midweek games this season.

Against the Bobcats, right fielder Enzo Apodaca (RSr.) went 3-for-3 at the plate with two doubles and a solo shot, collected four RBIs and scored a career-high five runs. Center fielder Ty Johnson (Sr.) earned his seventh multi-hit performance of the season and plated a career-high four RBIs.

Currently, Baylor sits at 15-5, which is right on schedule with where I projected them in my season prediction. While RPI won't be incredibly important until a few more weeks, the Bears sit at No. 48 in the country — the highest mark of Thompson's tenure.

As Baylor continues its tough stretch to open conference play against Kansas State (12-7, 3-0) and Arizona (17-4, 3-0) in back-to-back weekends, we'll learn what this team is made of. 

The point is that I don't think a series loss on the road to Kansas is the worst thing in the world. However, I have some growing concerns in other areas as we get a little over a month into the season.

Obviously, this wasn't an issue in the thrashing of Texas State, but the Bears are toward the top of the conference in runners left on base (178) and have sometimes struggled to get the "big hit." It's not everything, but it is something to continue monitoring as the competition level increases. 

Excluding Baylor's 10-run sixth inning against the Bobacts on Tuesday night, the Bears are 4-for-28 at the plate with the bases loaded across their last 10 games, with all four base knocks being singles. There have been seven strikeouts, five pop-outs, two sacrifice flies and four walks in that span, totaling 12 RBIs.

With the talent in this lineup, hopefully, these things will start to even themselves out.

Another concern is that Bales has yet to have a dominant outing as the Saturday starter. The sixth-year senior was one of Baylor's most consistent pitchers throughout the fall. He had a great summer on the Cape Cod Champion Harwich Mariners, where he made seven appearances, including three starts, and boasted a 2.95 ERA. In 21.1 innings pitched, he struck out 21 batters.

His best performance this season was against Ohio State on March 1, where he fanned three and allowed just three hits and one earned run across five frames. He's surrendered two or more runs in his four other starts, including allowing three walks, eight hits and eight earned runs to Kansas on Saturday. Batters are hitting .308 against Bales currently.

It's worth noting that we've probably yet to see the best of Bales; he's had command issues in most of his outings, but it's becoming a trend now. Right-handed pitcher Lucas Davenport (RSo.), the ace on Blinn's 2024 National Championship team, could slide into the weekend rotation if Bales continues to struggle. Opposing batters are hitting below .200 against Davenport, Calder and Bailey.

The Bears (15-5, 1-2) will return to Waco for a three-game set against the Kansas State Wildcats (12-7, 3-0) at Baylor Ballpark. Friday's first pitch is slated for 6:30 p.m., and the game will be streamed on ESPN+.

Other Baseball Reading:

• Pitching Coach Sean Snedeker Talks Baylor's Hot Start, Success of Pitching Staff, More
• From Struggles to Success: Tyriq Kemp's Journey to Refind His Signature Spark
• Faith, Injury and Hope: The Resilient Return of Hunter Simmons