Staff Predictions: Baylor's 2025 Record, Offensive & Defensive MVPs, Big 12 Champion, More
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With Baylor football’s home opener against Auburn at 7 p.m. on Friday, Aug. 29, officially a week away, the SicEm365 staff gives their season outlooks for the 2025 Bears, including record predictions, offensive and defensive most valuable players and Big 12 champions.
What Will Baylor’s 2025 Regular Season Record Be?
Colt (9-3): Baylor winning 10 games and possibly playing in the Big 12 Championship game hinges on the Kansas State game at home. The more I look at the schedule, I like a win over SMU and a split with Auburn and Arizona State at home. I suspect there will be a loss somewhere else in there, such as at TCU, where things are always a challenge. The Kansas State game at home is the toughest to pick, and until I see both teams play, homefield advantage might be the difference. I’ve felt pretty optimistic about this team and how they stack up, but I’m leaning toward a 9-3 record and a chance at a Big 12 Championship appearance.
Grayson (10-2): I love Baylor’s November schedule, but the Bears' first two months are a gauntlet compared to the rest of the league. I think they drop two during that period, then run through November with a 4-0 record on the way to the Big 12 Championship.
Ashley (9-3): This schedule is TOUGH! I see Baylor tripping up once at home to either Auburn, Arizona State, Kansas State or Utah. And then losing two on the road to the mix of SMU, Oklahoma State, TCU or Cincinnati. I feel like Oklahoma State and Utah don't get the proper respect they deserve on a yearly basis. A win versus either or both of those teams will be hard to come by. I love the potential of this offense, and maybe I'm devaluing how good this defense will be, but 9-3 should put the Bears in the Big 12 championship game even with a split in those first two games.
Jack (10-2): Based on the returning offensive production, the consistency across the offensive line, the depth of the defensive line and the high praise of the linebackers, I have no reason to think that the Bears can’t win any game on their schedule this season. They most likely won’t win every game, but the schedule also appears favorable if they can start the season fast and stay healthy. Obvious concerns are the secondary and who takes the right tackle spot, but I have faith in Kaden Sieracki and Paul Gonzales. Plus, with the front seven looking so promising, the secondary will hopefully get plenty of help this year.
Levi (9-3): I feel pretty confident about almost every position group on the team, excluding the safeties, which terrify me quite frankly. On the flip side of that, there’s no way it can be as bad as last right. Right? Anyway, the season-opener against Auburn will obviously be an early barometer of what team is capable of. Beat Auburn and SMU, and you’re feeling pretty good about a double-digit win season. Split Auburn and SMU, and the pressure ticks up for that Arizona State game. If the Bears start 4-2 with one of those losses being to Auburn or SMU and only trip up once over the back half of the schedule, that should put them in a prime position for the Big 12 title.
Who Will Be Baylor’s Offensive MVP?
Colt (Sawyer Robertson): If this team wants to win the Big 12 Championship, Sawyer Robertson better be the offensive MVP, so that’s who I’m going with. I say that because while the running game is critical, it is significantly more dangerous when combined with a passing game that manipulates the safeties. The receivers are going to spread around targets and receptions too much for one of those guys to pile up the numbers. Robertson has an outside chance at a 4,400-yard, 40-touchdown type of season if this team can play 14 games.
Grayson (Sawyer Robertson): Baylor will need it to be Sawyer Robertson, and let’s be honest, it is almost always the quarterback if your team is good. Robertson is the key to everything if this team is going to hit a very high ceiling. He has to be a top-three quarterback in the league for them to win the conference. I think Bryson Washington has a chance to break many school records, and he is very important, but Robertson has to be the answer here.
Ashley (Sawyer Robertson): The quarterback gets the blame and the glory. I expect this to be a top 15 offense all season long. Depth at running back gives me some pause. Will Baylor be able to run the ball consistently against the Auburns, Kansas States and Utahs on the schedule? I want to believe, but I need to see it consistently. I think the Dawson Pendergrass injury could show itself in some key games where the offense could have used his physicality and pass protection. Regardless, I expect Sawyer Robertson to have an All-Big 12 caliber season if he can stay healthy.
Jack (Josh Cameron): I want to pick someone besides Sawyer Robertson here on purpose. Robertson will likely be the MVP in every way if this team reaches its ceiling, but I think that Josh Cameron should not be undervalued in this discussion. The best offenses have that one guy that you just know is going to find the separation needed for the great quarterback to get the ball to his sure hands. I think Cameron will be that third-down or even fourth-down last-hope guy in an offense full of great options. He will come up with the big catches when the Bears most need him.
Levi (O-Line): The Bears probably have the best group of pass catchers in the conference, as well as the best quarterback-running back duo. The key to this year’s offensive success, however, rests in the arms of the offensive line. Mason Miller’s unit played a key role in Baylor’s turnaround toward the end of last season. With four returning starters and a “new” right tackle that saw time in all 13 games last year, it’s easy to see why people are so high on this group. The schedule is going to be pretty stout, and the offensive line is going to have to show up for the Bears to have any chance at going 4-2 or 5-1 across their brutal opening stretch that includes matchups against some tough defensive lines: Auburn, SMU, Arizona State and Kansas State.
Who Will Be Baylor’s Defensive MVP?
Colt (Keaton Thomas): The defense sets up for the linebackers to have big production, and the linebacker who is the steady force is Keaton Thomas. He set the stage for a massive year in 2024 when he was named First-Team All-Big 12, and I believe the defensive line playing in front of him will do a better job of taking up the blockers ahead of him. If Baylor wins the Big 12 Championship, it’s because he produces at the level of a conference Defensive Player of the Year, not just at Baylor.
Grayson (Keaton Thomas): Keaton Thomas is the answer. I think he is the best NFL prospect on Baylor’s roster, and the expectation is that he is gone after this season. His athleticism, mixed with his second year in this scheme, is going to lead to great things for this Baylor defense.
Ashley (Keaton Thomas): Thomas is the leader on the defense, and barring an injury, I expect him to be one of the best linebackers in the country all season long. It is his time to shine, much like Terrel Bernard did in 2021.
Jack (Jackie Marshall): I’m a defensive line guy. There are plenty of great options to choose from, but to me, it has to be Jackie Marshall. He is the kind of player who demands game plan attention. I think he will double his three sacks from last year and eat up blockers each and every play. That will free up players like Emar'rion Winston, Matthew Fobbbs-White and Keaton Thomas to wreak havoc and cover for a comparatively weaker secondary. It starts in the trenches, and Marshall should be the most valuable Bear in that position group.
Levi (Devyn Bobby): You know what you’re going to get from Keaton Thomas, Jackie Marshall, etc., but for the Bears to reach their defensive ceiling, they desperately need Devyn Bobby to emerge out of the secondary as a consistent playmaker. The secondary was abysmal at times last season, but over the final month, Bobby appeared to have turned a corner, totaling four turnovers and 28 tackles in that stretch. If he can be the “ringleader” for the team’s biggest weakness on paper and get that unit headed in the right direction, Aranda’s defense should be a bit more formidable than it’s been in recent years.
What Place Does Baylor Finish in the Big 12?
Colt (2nd): The unbalanced schedules make this a challenge to predict. Removing tiebreakers from the equation, if I’m predicting 9-3 overall and 7-2 in league play, that would have been tied for first in the conference in 2024 before tiebreakers. Remember, Baylor finished 6-3 in Big 12 play in 2024, and that was fifth behind four teams at 7-2. All three of Baylor’s losses were to teams that were tied for first. Meanwhile, Iowa State finished tied for first and didn’t play a single team that was tied for first in league play during the regular season. The Cyclones played ASU in the Big 12 Championship and lost 45-19.
Grayson (2nd): I have the Bears going 7-2 in league play, which would put them in the Big 12 Championship.
Ashley (1st): If Baylor ends up 7-2 in conference, as I predict, I bet they tie for first place. The Big 12 has a lot of parity. I don't expect any teams to escape losing fewer than two games.
Jack (2nd): With a 10-2 record, Baylor will finish in the top two in the Big 12. Now I think that those two losses will both come in conference play, leaving the Bears second at the end of the regular season. Those two losses will come from the five following games: Arizona State, Kansas State, at TCU, at Cincinnati and Utah. Which two are the losses, though? Arizona State and Kansas State. Those are the ones I’m going with. I can’t wait to be wrong about those, but at this juncture, they make sense.
Levi (2nd): With all of the parity in the conference, it’s tough to foresee anyone making it through the year without any losses, and hopefully, 7-2 will be enough for the Bears to not be on the outside looking in when you factor in the numerous tie-breaker scenarios.
Who Meets in the Big 12 Championship?
Colt (Baylor vs. Arizona State): Based on returning production and schedules, I’m going with Arizona State and Baylor in the Big 12 Championship game. Arizona State faces TCU and Texas Tech at home, with its toughest road games at Baylor, at Utah and at Iowa State. It’s not an easy schedule, but getting Texas Tech at home is big unless Texas Tech can go 8-0 or 7-1 outside of that game in league play to sneak them in past Arizona State.
Grayson (Baylor vs. Arizona State): Baylor versus Arizona State in a massive rematch from early in the Big 12 season. I think these will be the two best teams in the league if they stay healthy.
Ashley (Baylor vs. TCU): Let's crank up the “Revivalry” a few notches!
Jack (Baylor vs. Kansas State): As much fun as it would be to see the Bears tear through Texas Tech, Texas A&M and Texas three games in a row on the way the national semifinals … that dream will most likely not happen so I’ll pick a more realistic opponent for the Bears to face in Arlington than Texas Tech. One of Kansas State, Iowa State or Utah will absolutely make it. I feel strongly about that. Of those three, I like Kansas State’s schedule the best, and the head-to-head over the Bears fits with my prediction that Baylor will finish the regular season in second. So, Bears vs. Wildcats. Book it.
Levi (Baylor vs. Utah): With an affinity for the state of New Mexico and a dynasty led by former Lobos quarterback Devon Dampier in NCAA CFB 25, the Utes will fix the offensive issues that plagued them a season ago with first-year offensive coordinator Jason Beck calling plays and Dampier under center. In Kyle Whittingham’s tenure, Utah’s always salty on defense. I don’t expect that to change, and if they’re able to get a little more dynamic on offense, they could make an appearance in Arlington on the heels of a manageable schedule.
Who Wins the Conference?
Colt (Arizona State): Based on returning production and talent, I have a hard time not seeing Arizona State repeating. I want to pick Baylor here, but I believe Baylor has too many question marks at safety that could lead to the Bears missing the Big 12 Championship game entirely. The absence of Cam Skattebo is significant for the Sun Devils, but they return a ton everywhere else. But heck, it’s the Big 12, so who really knows?
Grayson (Baylor): The Bears get revenge from an early-season loss to Arizona State and get ready for the College Football Playoff.
Ashley (Baylor): The Bears lose to rival TCU in Fort Worth and get revenge in Arlington in the Big 12 championship game.
Jack (Baylor): I’m feeling a playoff appearance in the works. Call me a sunshine pumper, but I’m buying the hype that I guess I’m helping create. The Bears won’t lose to the Wildcats twice in one season and will avenge their October loss.
Levi (Baylor): Homerism 101, but it’d be incredible to see Baylor make the College Football Playoff and be able to host a first-round game under the lights at McLane Stadium. Without the top four conference champions getting automatic byes anymore, it’s extremely unlikely that the Big 12 winner would get the benefit of the doubt of a top-four seed over Texas, Georgia, Ohio State, Penn State, etc.
