Baylor Football

Predicting the Big 12 Season: Key Close Games Headline Week Five

Another year of "Predicting the Big 12 Season" is here! SicEm365's Grayson Grundhoefer predicts each game in the Big 12 season week by week in this yearly feature.
July 31, 2026
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Another year of "Predicting the Big 12 Season" is here! SicEm365's Grayson Grundhoefer predicts each game in the Big 12 season week by week in this yearly feature.

Previous: Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4


Baylor 23 at Arizona State 27

The Bears get off to a sleepy start in its first true road game of the season. Cutter Boley hits Omarion Miller and Reed Harris for touchdowns in the first half as the Sun Devils build a 17-6 lead at half. Baylor responds in the third quarter with a touchdown run by DJ Lagway and a touchdown pass to Dre’lon Miller as the score is 20-20 heading into the 4th quarter. The Bears go up by three and get the ball back. They drive down the field and elect to go for it on 4th and 2 at the 25-yard line instead of kicking a field goal. They are stopped and Arizona State scores a touchdown by Kyson Brown as they go up by four with two minutes left. Lagway drives the Bears down to the 25-yard line but has to force a pass and is picked off with 15 seconds left. The Sun Devils survive a scare.

BYU 21 at TCU 16

The ends up being a ranked matchup between two undefeated teams in Fort Worth. The game lives up to the hype especially on defense as the front sevens do a great job stopping the run while not giving up big plays. The difference in this one is who can score in the red zone. The Cougars punch it in three times in that area while TCU settles for two field goals. Ultimately that is enough to get BYU the win. LJ Martin scores twice in the road victory. Quarterbacks Jaden Craig and Bear Bachmeier struggle in this one.

UCF 20 at Houston 26

The Cougars and Knights defenses are up to the challenge in this matchup as both teams slug it out early on. UCF jumps out to a 10-3 lead following a pick-six by Jayden Bellamy. Conner Weigman responds with a couple scoring drives before half including a touchdown pass to Patrick Overmyer. Alonza Barnett hits Duane Thomas on a 50-yard touchdown to respond and make the score 17-13. From that point on it is all Houston as Weigman carries the ball 10 times for 70 yards and a score in the second half to really flex the Cougars muscles. Makhi Hughes also pushes one in on the way to a close win at home.

Cincinnati 17 at Arizona 36

The Wildcats dictate the pace in this game with a quick 13-0 start as the Bearcats are trying to play catch up all game. That is bad news against the Arizona secondary who ends up picking off JC French twice in this game. Noah Fifita completes 80% of his passes as he dices up Cincy’s secondary time and time again. The Wildcats roll with a pretty dominant showing at home.

Texas Tech 41 at Colorado 13

This feels like a really bad matchup for the Buffs unless its offensive line takes a massive step forward. AJ Holmes, Adam Trick and Trey White live in the backfield all day long. In total the Red raiders end up with six sacks and hold Colorado under 75 yards rushing. Will Hammond throws three touchdowns, two to Micah Hudson. Cameron Dickey and J’Koby Williams combine for 200 yards on the ground. Julian Lewis throws two touchdowns but turns the ball over three times in this blowout win for Tech.

West Virginia 17 at Iowa State 20

This is the kind of game that profiles pretty well for Iowa State this season. West Virginia has a good but not great offense and the defense is shaky especially against the run. Iowa State runs the football well with Jaylen Raynor and Cameron Pettaway. They maintain possession a ton in this one while the defense stifles the Mountaineers. West Virginia has a mixtures of three-and-outs along with poor fourth-down decisions and bad red zone offense. This causes them to stumble on the road in a very close game.


Rest of Slate

Middle Tennessee 17 at Kansas 48


Big 12 Standings

1. Texas Tech — 5-0 (2-0)

1. BYU — 4-0 (2-0)

1. Arizona State – 3-1 (2-0)

1. Utah – 4-0 (1-0)

1. TCU — 4-1 (1-1)

1. Cincinnati — 4-1 (1-1)

9. Houston — 4-1 (1-1)

9. Arizona – 4-1 (1-1)

9. Iowa State — 3-2 (1-1)

1. West Virginia — 3-2 (1-1)

1. Baylor — 3-2 (1-1)

9. Kansas State — 3-1 (0-1)

9. Oklahoma State — 2-2 (0-1)

9. Colorado – 2-3 (0-2)

9. UCF — 2-3 (0-2)

9. Kansas — 2-2 (0-1)

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Predicting the Big 12 Season: Key Close Games Headline Week Five

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