Staff Predictions: Baylor Looks to End Home Woes against Kansas State

The SicEm365 Staff gives their predictions for Baylor’s (3-2, 1-1) home matchup against Kansas State (2-3, 0-1). Kickoff is set for 11 a.m. CT on Saturday, Oct. 4, at McLane Stadium in Waco, Texas. The game will be streamed on ESPN+.

Colt Barber (3-2) — Baylor 38, Kansas State 35

Through five games, Kansas State hasn’t faced an offense ranked higher than No. 41 nationally in the F+ analytics model, with the best being Iowa State at No. 41. However, KSU also hasn’t faced a defense ranked outside of the top 50 outside of Army, and the Bears are their easiest matchup thus far. I’m looking for a high-efficiency offensive output from both teams, but Baylor makes more plays. 

Ashley Hodge (2-3) — Baylor 34, Kansas State 31

Baylor has to win one of these tough conference games at home, right? I fear the crowd will be disappointing, but I believe in this offense to manufacture enough points to pull this out. Let’s finally get a game where Baylor wins the turnover battle!

Grayson Grundhoefer (3-2) — Baylor 33, Kansas State 27

This team is very hard to trust right now, as they have not handled business at home consistently enough over the past three and a half years. However, this team is better than Kansas State, and the matchup is favorable. The Wildcats haven’t been good on offense this year, and they have a poor run defense. This sets up well for the Bears to have a little success on defense and move the ball consistently on offense. I can’t pick a blowout as Kansas State has been in every game this year, but I am picking the Bears to win and control the game. 

Jack Mackenzie (4-1) — Baylor 35, Kansas State 24

The defense will have a bounce-back performance. Call it three good quarters of football by that side of the ball. I think the Wildcats will do what they can to limit possessions, and the Baylor offense will also have a bad quarter, leading to “just” 35 points. Overall, the 6/8 good quarters combined from both sides of the ball will be enough to see Baylor get the win. Also, hot take... Michael Turner has a breakout game.

Levi Caraway (4-1) — Baylor 34, Kansas State 21

This feels like such a crucial game for Dave Aranda’s program. The Bears are favored at home by a touchdown against a team that they should beat. What could go wrong? Jokes aside, this team is running out of opportunities to prove they can piece together four quarters of quality football. If it doesn’t happen this weekend, the backend of the schedule suddenly feels a lot more daunting, and with the talent on this roster, that’s unacceptable, quite frankly. Defend home turf and fix the non-personnel-related defensive issues in the bye week.

Sam Bradshaw (4-1) — Baylor 30, Kansas State 24

I think that Kansas State’s struggles to run the ball out of their base offense will play into Dave Aranda’s hands. I don’t trust consistency from either team, but I think Baylor has the better quarterback, better lines and better weapons outside, and it’s enough to secure the win.