SicEm365’s Jack Mackenzie answers the questions posed by Grayson Grundhoefer in the “Keys to the Game” for Baylor’s matchup against Kansas State.
1. Will the Bears or Wildcats fix their issues in the run game?
If you have to say that one team fixed their issues in the run game, then it was the Kansas State defense. The Bears rushed for 88 yards on 14 attempts in the first half, an average of 6.3 yards per carry. A very good start that made it look like the Bears' offense was the side that fixed their issues, but then Baylor laid an egg in the second half. The Bears ran the ball 11 times in the second half for just 10 yards. It is quite obvious, but should still be stated clearly: that is less than one yard per carry. That is terrible.
With K-State having just given up 200-plus rushing yards in three straight games — on top of their season-long average of 181.6 rushing yards allowed per game — it is a bad look that the Bears were unable to come close to their season rushing average of 154.8 yards per game.
Caveat: the hole the Bears dug for themselves in the third quarter, or even the lead that they were not able to build for themselves in the first half, thanks to turnovers, are reasons why the offense had to abandon the running game in the 4th quarter.
2. How bad is this defense?
It’s pretty bad right now.
Kansas State was inside the bottom four in the Big 12 in third-down conversions, fourth-down conversions and red-zone touchdowns heading into Waco. Those things have translated to the Wildcats also being in the bottom four in the league in pass offense, rushing offense, total yards and scoring offense. “They have not been good at all.”
The Wildcats proceeded to post the following stats against the Baylor defense.
- Passing yards: 339
- Rushing yards: 162
- Total Yards: 501
- TDs/Red Zone Trips: 3/4
Grayson’s analysis of Kansas State’s offense grouped the Wildcats with UCF, Arizona, Houston and Utah. He also noted the strengths of the offenses that Baylor will face in the back half of the season.
Remaining Schedule Average Offensive Rating
• TCU - Top 15
• Cincy - Top 25
• UCF - Top 60
• Utah - Top 50
• Arizona - Top 60
• Houston - Top 80
Since the Bears got torn up by KSU, the TCU and Cincinnati offenses are probably excited for their chances to pad their stats. The Bears simply have to find a way to get better at some aspect of defense, whether that is limiting the running game, generating turnovers or something else. If they don’t, the offense has not demonstrated that it can consistently score 40-plus points to bail the defense out. Surely, with the amount of talent on the Baylor offense, holding the opponent to 30 points or less should give the Bears a decent chance of victory.
3. Will Baylor take away Avery Johnson’s legs?
Avery Johnson ran the ball 10 times for 72 yards and a touchdown. Baylor did not take away Johnson’s legs.
Coming into this game, he had just 137 yards and was averaging just 3.7 yards per carry, compared to the 5.5 yards per carry he averaged in his first two seasons.
Looking back across the season, Baylor has not fared well against the QB run.
- Jackson Arnold (Auburn): 16 att, 137 yds, 2 TDs, 8.6 avg.
- Kevin Jennings (SMU): 14 att, 16 yds, 1.1 avg.
- All QBs (Samford): 22 att, 69 yds, 3.1 avg.
- Sam Leavitt (Arizona State): 15 att, 62 yds, 1 TDs, 4.1 avg.
- Zane Flores (Oklahoma State): 6 att, 25 yds, 4.2 avg.
- Avery Johnson (Kansas State): 10 att, 72 yds, 1 TDs, 7.2 avg.
Baylor still has to play Cincinnati with Brendan Sorsby (44 att, 291 yards, 5TDs, 6.6 avg) and Utah with Devon Dampier (55 att, 258 yards, 2 TDs, 4.7 avg), two of the top three rushing quarterbacks in the Big 12 so far this season. The Bears have to improve in this area.
4. Strength on strength, can Sawyer Robertson deliver against a strong secondary?
Sawyer Robertson threw for 345 yards and two touchdowns with a 64% completion percentage and one interception. By the numbers, Kansas State did not really slow Robertson down. Coming into the game, the Wildcats had held each opponent under their passing yardage average by at least 38 yards and 14% completion percentage points. Robertson pretty much hit his season averages of 349.4 yards and 63.6% completion right on the mark with his 345 yards and 25-for-39 performance. The one drawback in Robertson’s performance was his fourth interception of the year. That pick, which happened at the K-State two-yard line, kept the Bears from winning the first quarter 10-7. In a game of such fine margins, eliminating turnovers would have been massive, and limiting turnovers for the rest of the season will be a huge factor in the team's success.
5. Can Baylor give fans something to be excited about at home?
To use Grayson’s words from the original article: “Whelp. Here we go again.”
The Bears got the win, but in getting there, they showed so many flaws and execution errors that many fans — if not most fans — left McLane Stadium before the Bears started their comeback in the fourth quarter. So yes, the Bears are now 5-12 against Power Four competition at home since the start of 2022. But an ugly win over arguably the worst Kansas State team since the 2020 COVID team is not a good look. When it comes to fan engagement, optics matter more than wins. Much like in the AP Poll.
Again from Grayson:
“This is it for me. The season in many ways rides on this game, much like the road game against Texas Tech did last season... if they lose this game, they will likely be staring at a likely 3-5 record come the start of November, and rumors could start swirling with distractions surfacing toward the end of the year… If they take care of business, it certainly gives you hope heading into the bye week that they can compete and potentially win every game on the remaining schedule.”
The Bears did not take care of business. They fought hard and salvaged their business, but the upcoming trips to TCU and Cincinnati are daunting. The Bears can easily head into homecoming at 4-4. With preseason aspirations to make the Big 12 championship game, entering the final third of the season with those chances on life support would be a sign of death in the excitement of the fan base.
