SicEm365’s Jack Mackenzie answers the questions posed by Grayson Grundhoefer in the “Keys to the Game” for Baylor’s matchup against No. 21 Cincinnati.
1. Will this be a Sawyer Robertson legacy game?
This was actually Robertson’s lowest passing production of the year. This is not surprising considering that the Baylor offense only produced 266 yards and 20 points, but Robertson’s stat line of 18-for-26, 137 yards, two TDs and a long completion of 16 yards is a season low in each of those figures. Sawyer did take care of the ball, not throwing an interception or fumbling the ball as he ran a season-high eight times. However, just taking care of the ball is not what Baylor needs from Robertson to win games. That’s why Grayson said, “In order for Baylor to win this game, Sawyer Robertson has to have a legacy game.” The only way this comes to be viewed as a legacy game is that it was so underwhelming that it plays a role in a potential decision on coaching staff changes.
One last note: I don’t know what it says about Baylor football/the offense/Robertson, but Grayson left the following statistical benchmarks for a chance at a Baylor win: “Robertson needs to complete at least 64% of his passes, throw at least three touchdowns, and have one or fewer turnovers for Baylor to win this game.” Robertson met the completion percentage and turnover marks, coming up just short on the touchdown passes, running for the third rather than throwing it. And yet, the Bears were thoroughly beaten.
2. Can Baylor hope to contain Brendan Sorsby?
While Grayson did not set the bar high with this question, the Bears did not pass the test. Sorsby’s numbers were not gaudy, throwing for 111 yards on a 13-for-21 performance with two touchdowns and a long of 19 yards. Those numbers are right in line with Sawyer Robertson’s performance. However, Sorsby rushed the ball 11 times for 85 yards and a touchdown to be the leading rusher for Cincinnati on the day. That is an average of 7.7 yards per carry. Sorsby got what he wanted when he needed it, did not turn the ball over and helped his teammates make winning plays. He played within himself and did just what his team needed him to do. As stated above, the Bears needed (and consistently need) so much more from Robertson that the similar statistical output in passing numbers can simultaneously be great for Sorsby and a huge letdown for Robertson.
3. Who will score touchdowns instead of field goals in the red zone?
Heading into this game, Baylor allowed a red-zone touchdown percentage of 68%, which was the second-worst in the Big 12. Cincinnati scored a touchdown on four of its six red zone trips. So Baylor’s season-long percentage stayed in the cellar. Now, Baylor knew not only that red zone defense was a problem area, but also that red zone offense was a strength of the Bearcats. So if the Green and Gold couldn't stop Cincinnati in the red zone, then the Baylor offense had to be near-perfect in the red zone itself. And perfect they were! All three times they made it inside the Bearcats’ 20-yard line… Three red zone trips are only enough if you are scoring just as many touchdowns from outside of the red zone.
4. Does Baylor keep winning random road games as underdogs when the season looks like it’s teetering on the brink of disaster?
This time, the Bears did not. And it made me look back at the Week 2 game in Dallas against SMU (who lost at Wake Forest on Saturday) to think about whether that game was actually the random road underdog win. The deeper we get into this season, the more the celebrations at the end of the SMU game feel like the celebrations after the 2023 UCF game. Just to remind you, Grayson compiled a list of these random road underdog wins from the Aranda era so far:
2022
- Baylor at Texas Tech (-2.5): Bears (4-3) beat Texas Tech (4-3), 45-17
- Baylor at Oklahoma (-3.5): Bears (5-3) beat Oklahoma (5-3), 38-35
2023
- Baylor at UCF (7.5): Bears (1-3) beat UCF (3-1), 36-35
- Baylor at Cincinnati (-3): Bears (2-4) beat Cincy (2-4), 32-29
2024
- Baylor at Texas Tech (-4.5): Bears (2-4) beat Texas Tech (5-1), 59-35
- Baylor at West Virginia (-1.5): Bears (5-4) beat West Virginia (5-4), 49-35
Maybe the magic has run out. Maybe there wasn’t magic to begin with, and it was just luck, circumstance, and a team’s record finding the proper level one way or another across the course of a season. No matter, the Bears could not find a way to win another of these weird ones. Time to pay more attention to that teetering.
