The SicEm365 Staff gives their predictions for Baylor’s (4-4, 2-3) Homecoming matchup against UCF (4-3, 1-3). Kickoff is set for 11 a.m. CT on Saturday, Nov. 1, at McLane Stadium in Waco, Texas. The game will be televised on ESPNU.
Colt Barber (5-3) — Baylor 33, UCF 30
At some point, the offense has to play a full and clean game, right? The defense is what it is, but the offense has yet to go out and play a clean game from start to finish. Not a dominant game. A clean game. Baylor has turned the ball over at least twice in six of eight games this season. I’m setting myself up for disappointment, but I’ll predict the offense carries Baylor to a win this weekend.
Ashley Hodge (4-4) — UCF 35, Baylor 24
What I witnessed firsthand the last two weeks looked like a soft football team that has lost its will to fight. Baylor is the more talented team, but I suspect UCF will be the hungrier, more motivated team. UCF runs it well and has a solid defense. An empty stadium will be discouraging for the Bears. I would love to be wrong!
Grayson Grundhoefer (4-4) — UCF 33, Baylor 31
The Bears are so weak on defense, inconsistent on offense and in a very weird place as a football team. I could easily see them packing it in, and this gets really ugly. But I think there are too many leaders on this team to do that fully. I expect a good football game between two bad teams, but at the end of the day, UCF is the tougher and more physical team, so I am going to roll with those qualities to win out over the Bears.
Jack Mackenzie (6-2) — UCF 27, Baylor 25
The alumni back in Waco for Homecoming will get the full 2025 Baylor football experience. A slow start? Check. An early turnover leading to UCF points? Check. An unexpected defensive surge to keep things from getting truly ugly? Check. A late offensive push to try to overcome a multiple-possession deficit? Check. This one will fall short on a failed 2-point conversion. Oddly specific prediction? Complete.
Levi Caraway (6-2) — UCF 34, Baylor 27
The Knights will run the football at will, and the Bears start slow once again. A loss on Homecoming to one of the worst teams in the conference leaves athletic director Mack Rhoades no choice but to fire Dave Aranda, going into the bye week.
Sam Bradshaw (7-1) — UCF 34, Baylor 30
Baylor is a very flawed team. On paper, UCF has the better defense and, for sure, the better run game. However, they haven’t converted that to red zone success. Given their turnover issues and inconsistent QB play, I think Baylor would eek it out usually, but I simply can’t bet on this team until I see them stop someone.
BluesBear said:
Holy Hell - We are 28th in the country in scoring at over 30 points a game. Should that not be enough? Ranked 122nd in scoring defense at 36 points a game. Enough of the complaints on an inconsistent offense - just maybe they could score consistently across all 4 quarters if our game plan and play selection made more sense....
IowaBear said:
And the defense is one of the worst in CFB at forcing turnovers. Those go both ways. Can't play one side of the coin. Offense has been incredibly turnover prone. I've brought that up multiple times. However, the defense simply doesn't force turnovers unless they're playing FCS teams.
IowaBear said:
Baylor's played 7 FBS opponents. However many TOs have they forced in those games.
IowaBear said:
The Baylor defense has forced 3 turnovers against st 7 FBS opponents. And you're blaming the offense. The defense has been dog**** all season and this is yet another tho g they're terrible at. Forcing turnovers. And this is all while acknowledging the offense turns the ball over way too much.
Bearknuckle said:BluesBear said:
Holy Hell - We are 28th in the country in scoring at over 30 points a game. Should that not be enough? Ranked 122nd in scoring defense at 36 points a game. Enough of the complaints on an inconsistent offense - just maybe they could score consistently across all 4 quarters if our game plan and play selection made more sense....
We're a -9 on traditional turnover margin (i.e. INTs + Fumbles):If you add in turnovers-on-downs (non-FG attempts!), our margin JUMPS to -25!!! We've gone for it 31 times, but only converted 17 of those.
- Sawyer has 7 interceptions and the offense has 9 lost fumbles
- Defense has 5 INTs and 2 recovered fumbles.
Raw points & yardage don't mean much when your actual turnover margin is a ridiculous negative 25!!!
Offensive inconsistency has been every bit as damning as our porous defense, full stop.
BluesBear said:Bearknuckle said:BluesBear said:
Holy Hell - We are 28th in the country in scoring at over 30 points a game. Should that not be enough? Ranked 122nd in scoring defense at 36 points a game. Enough of the complaints on an inconsistent offense - just maybe they could score consistently across all 4 quarters if our game plan and play selection made more sense....
We're a -9 on traditional turnover margin (i.e. INTs + Fumbles):If you add in turnovers-on-downs (non-FG attempts!), our margin JUMPS to -25!!! We've gone for it 31 times, but only converted 17 of those.
- Sawyer has 7 interceptions and the offense has 9 lost fumbles
- Defense has 5 INTs and 2 recovered fumbles.
Raw points & yardage don't mean much when your actual turnover margin is a ridiculous negative 25!!!
Offensive inconsistency has been every bit as damning as our porous defense, full stop.
And despite that on Offense, we still scoring + 30 in our games.....
IowaBear said:
I wasn't wrong. The defense doesn't force turnovers against FBS teams as a whole. They've averaged less than half a To forced a game against FBS teams. That not forcing turnovers.
Honest question, when you watch this defense every Saturday what do you see?
IowaBear said:
The offense has been mediocre for stretches…the defense has been dreadful the entire season.
Those "stretches" have occurred every single game (our 3rd drive vs Samford was a three and out! We had four punts, and Sawyer threw 2 picks - vs SAMFORD!). The Offense has all but disappeared in the games against our best competition. That's not a trend that you can just hand-wave away as though it's meaningless. It's had a major effect on the season.
That's what you seem to enjoy ignoring. I've stated many times I don't think the offense is anything special. But the offense is good enough to win games against better teams.
This assertion has no backing in our actual game log. We'd quite possibly be undefeated if they hadn't disappeared for long "stretches" against our toughest opponents, i.e. met the expectations your assertion sets. For example, vs Cincy our offense was simply not present - first four drives were PUNT, PUNT, ToD, Fumble. That's godawful levels of terrible, and put us behind the eight ball. Cincy's first four possessions: TD, TD, Punt, FG. Our 'good enough' offense didn't come close to keeping pace.
The defense simply is not. The stats back that up.
The defense's stats are bad, I've never said otherwise. But that doesn't mean they haven't actually stepped up at all. Please review the All Plays Play-by-Play tab here and tell me that our defense lost us that game rather than our offense simply not being good enough to win it. Our offense had 2 fumbles, an INT, and a ToD. They cost us that game, not the defense.
The bears don't force turnovers, they don't generate any pressure, they miss tackles and blow coverages weekly. We can blame injuries all we want but that's not why that unit has played at such inept levels for 3 plus years. When your bottom 20% nationally in virtually every defensive statistic/metric it's hard to blame anyone but the head man.
Dave deserves blame for the defense - I done been saying that, man. But the Offense is Spav & Co.'s baby, and they've failed to meet expectations this season too.
Dia del DougO said:
Pretty one-sided by the staff. Probably means Baylor's gonna win.
Predictably unpredictable.
jdkingbear said:
An UPDATE for the Sicem365 "pundits" that predicted a Bear loss and a KNIGHT big win! Uh, the Bears WON, pundits!! And NOT by a little. They won by nearly 4 TDs worth. AND they kept UCF out of the end zone. Knights could only muster one FG. The defense we hoped would show up one day - DID! Big time! And UCF is sent packing wondering "wha happened"? This is the team even the pundits thought we would see this year. Bit of a wait ... but they go into another bye week with 3 games to go, bowl eligibility possible ... and maybe a winning record for 2025. Me very happy. As to the pundits ... local and otherwise ... I have a recipe for stewed crow. Happy to pass it along to ya .
jdkingbear said:
An UPDATE for the Sicem365 "pundits" that predicted a Bear loss and a KNIGHT big win! Uh, the Bears WON, pundits!! And NOT by a little. They won by nearly 4 TDs worth. AND they kept UCF out of the end zone. Knights could only muster one FG. The defense we hoped would show up one day - DID! Big time! And UCF is sent packing wondering "wha happened"? This is the team even the pundits thought we would see this year. Bit of a wait ... but they go into another bye week with 3 games to go, bowl eligibility possible ... and maybe a winning record for 2025. Me very happy. As to the pundits ... local and otherwise ... I have a recipe for stewed crow. Happy to pass it along to ya .
jdkingbear said:
An UPDATE for the Sicem365 "pundits" that predicted a Bear loss and a KNIGHT big win! Uh, the Bears WON, pundits!! And NOT by a little. They won by nearly 4 TDs worth. AND they kept UCF out of the end zone. Knights could only muster one FG. The defense we hoped would show up one day - DID! Big time! And UCF is sent packing wondering "wha happened"? This is the team even the pundits thought we would see this year. Bit of a wait ... but they go into another bye week with 3 games to go, bowl eligibility possible ... and maybe a winning record for 2025. Me very happy. As to the pundits ... local and otherwise ... I have a recipe for stewed crow. Happy to pass it along to ya .
jdkingbear said:
Yo, BUGWBBEAR - don't know who you are talking about, bud, but I never predicted the Bears would be in the national playoffs. Would have loved it if it happened, BUT you have me mistaken for someone else. If had done such a thing, then I would be cooking up some of that crow stew for myself.
