SicEm365’s Jack Mackenzie answers the questions posed by Grayson Grundhoefer in the “Keys to the Game” for Baylor’s matchup against UCF.
1. Will Baylor be able to focus on football this week?
It seems as if Baylor’s focus was sharpened despite there being a huge amount of outside noise around the program over the last week. Grayson put it like this: “If Baylor isn't mentally there on Saturday, UCF could win big. If Baylor is ready to play, I do think this will be a good, competitive game, given the talent on both rosters.” If only the talent for UCF had shown up more for entertainment purposes. Frankly, this was the most complete game of the season for the Bears, with Sawyer Robertson throwing for more yards (267) than the Bears’ defense allowed UCF to gain in total (225). Baylor also doubled up the Knights in Rushing yards (150 to 74) and held UCF to just three points (the lowest for an opponent this season). Next week’s game against No. 17 will shed light on whether these outcomes were more due to the quality of the opponent or the focus of the Bears, and that is important to pay attention to, given what is at stake for the program.
2. Can Baylor hold UCF under 200 yards rushing?
How about under 100 yards rushing? Because the Bears held the Knights to just 74 yards on the ground. Much of that has to do with jumping out to a quick 14-0 lead and making UCF chase the game, but regardless, the Bears were ready to battle in the trenches. The Knights averaged just 3.2 yards per carry, which Coach Aranda himself has said would typically be more like six or seven yards per carry for Baylor’s opponents this year. Grayson also harped on the explosive runs that UCF had a habit of generating coming into this game, but the longest run for the Knights was a 17-yard carry by Myles Montgomery in the second quarter. Jaden Nixon had the next closest long run with an 11-yard carry in the fourth quarter.
3. Is the offense good enough to take over this game?
This is the question that allows me to talk about how the win over UCF was both nice to see and aggravating. The whole of the offense had started to look less than the sum of its parts in a consistent manner by the end of the Cincinnati game. A performance like the first quarter against UCF was always possible but appeared less and less probable. Then the Bears went out and started fast, reminding us of the heights they can reach with their talents. 417 total yards, 30 points, a bunch of highlight reel catches to paint with a modest but effective 3.8 yards per rush to keep the Bears ahead of the chains … and the offense truly left a lot of points on the field, settling for three field goals and missing a fourth after a 14-0 lead was built. Compare this to UCF’s defensive average heading into the game. The Knights were allowing on average around 17 points and 290 yards total. Cincinnati at home only produced 306 yards and 20 points against this defense, and Baylor had to face it after a bye week for the Knights.
4. Will this be the end of the Dave Aranda era?
Such a dominant win means that the talk an immediate firing was squashed for the week. With a bye week to prepare for the toughest opponent left on the schedule in No. 17 Utah, Aranda still has an outside shot at eight wins. To many, this will read like nails on a chalkboard. Results still matter though, so can Aranda get his team to produce enough positive results before the end of the season to overlook the body of work his program has put forward since the 2021 Big 12 Championship season?
To put things another way, I had one friend express their opinion to me like this:
“Driving to the stadium this morning, I thought, ‘I have a bad feeling we’re going to win today’.”
That friend was happy to enjoy the dominant performance and cheer on the effort from the players, but the concern for the future of the program remains. I share this because I think that those are common sentiments throughout the Baylor fanbase currently, and that is not a very tenable position for a program to be in.
