Elite Upside, But Some Early Issues: What Baylor Women's Basketball's First Week Revealed

Baylor women’s basketball had an eventful opening week, knocking off a top-10 Duke team in Paris and an error-filled win against Lindenwood. Here are some takeaways from the opening week.

The Good

1) Taliah Scott is one of them ones

The Auburn transfer’s reputation has always been that of a volume scorer, and her first week in Baylor colors further backed that status. Baylor’s guards last year (Sarah Andrews, Jada Walker, Yaya Felder, Aliyah Matharu, Waiata Jennings) combined for one 24-point game all year. Scott dropped 24 points on one of the best defensive teams in the country in Duke, then followed it up with 29 points against Lindenwood.

Scott’s ability to score has been further enhanced by her improved ability to get to the free-throw line. After having a 28.3 free-throw rate as a freshman at Arkansas and a 6.1 free-throw rate in three games at Auburn, Scott has a 47.1 free-throw rate through two games as a Bear. This has been due to her improved ability to get downhill.

After only making 2.1 shots at the rim per game in her prior two seasons, Scott has converted on more layups in each game. Furthermore, all nine of her buckets inside the arc have been unassisted, speaking to her ability to create for herself.

Head coach Nicki Collen has not had a player who can take over at any moment since NaLyssa Smith in the 2021-22 season. Scott’s ability to score in bunches greatly raises this team’s ceiling and allows the Bears to be competitive with any opponent. That impact has been seen metrically. With Scott on the floor, the Bears have been 0.164 points per possession better than their opponents; with Scott off the floor, they have been only 0.058 points per possession better. While it is too early in the year to draw drastic conclusions, Scott’s scoring ability and impact have been very apparent.

2) The interior length of Baylor has presented issues for opposing teams

The frontcourt quartet of Bella Fontleroy, Darianna Littlepage-Buggs, Kiersten Johnson and Kyla Abraham has provided a strong deterrent to players trying to finish inside. Not only have teams attempted only 28.7% of their shots at the rim, but opponents have also converted only 37.1% of their attempts there.

Duke converted on 29.6% of attempts at the rim. The Blue Devils, who returned a large percentage of their scoring from last year, shot 57.9% at the rim in the 2024-25 season. While Lindenwood found more success at the rim, converting on 62.5% of their attempts at the rim, they only managed to attempt eight shots at the rim, a result of the Bears’ length and rim protection in these first two games.

Baylor did not have the same caliber of rim protection last year with Aaronette Vonleh. With Vonleh playing center, Baylor allowed 64.5% of attempts at the rim to fall. While Collen schemed around that flaw well, forcing 46.1% of shots to be attempted in the mid-range, the addition of Oklahoma transfer Kiersten Johnson has given Collen more rim protection and added to the Bears’ defensive upside.

3) Downing Duke is one of Collen’s best regular-season achievements

Let’s start with some metrics. At the time this is written, Collen’s triumph over Duke ranks second in WAB (wins above bubble) among all Collen regular-season wins. Furthermore, Duke is currently the second-highest-ranked team on Barttorvik that Collen has defeated, as they rank sixth in the country in T-rank.

Baylor’s victory at Texas in the 2023-24 season is the only higher-ranked team that Collen has defeated in her Baylor tenure. The fashion in which Baylor won only makes the victory more impressive. No player with multiple shot attempts had an effective field goal percentage above 50.0%, and the team as a whole posted only 34.1%.

Collen was 0-8 against top-35 T-rank teams when having a sub-40% effective field goal percentage before the game in Paris. Duke returns all but two key players and all but one starter from a 2-seed that made the Elite 8. The Blue Devils are a pretty sure bet to be a protected seed in March. In comparison, Baylor returns just three players who played in the rotation last year. Defeating Duke while having more new pieces and struggling to shoot the ball speaks to the grit that the coaching staff instilled in this team. For multiple reasons, this is arguably Collen’s most impressive regular-season win.

The Bad

1) Taliah Scott needs help

Scott has scored a hair under 40% of the Bears' points this year. While that is ridiculously impressive and speaks to her ability to score, someone else needs to step up for this team to reach its ceiling. Fontleroy had a huge game against Lindenwood after a rough game against Duke, and Johnson has added what is expected of her in her role.

However, players such as Littlepage-Buggs, Jana Van Gytenbeek, Marcayla Johnson and Yuting Deng, among others, need to add more offense for the Bears. Littlepage-Buggs entered the season as an All-American candidate, but has had a rough start to the year. Duke’s interior length gave her issues, as she was only 1-for-6 at the rim and 3-for-12 from the field.

While rough to see, Littlepage-Buggs’ signature motor helped her rack up 10 rebounds and contribute to the win. The issues against Lindenwood were more surprising. Littlepage-Buggs was visibly frustrated and did not seem to have her normal effort level throughout the game. She never got on the offensive glass and ended the game with only six rebounds in 31 minutes. Littlepage-Buggs also contributed just 5 points, matching her 2024-25 season low. She has to get on track for Baylor to truly be a top-10 caliber team.

Van Gytenbeek has a 16.8% true shooting percentage through two games, and while the shot selection has not been an issue, shot-making has to improve. I will touch more on the point guard’s struggles in the next section.

I have been an outspoken fan of Marcayla Johnson, and I do really like the freshman guard, but she has had some struggles herself. While she has been efficient in the mid-range and knows how to get to her spots, I have to say it will always be hard for me to support mid-range jumpers and floaters. However, her efficiency issues have stemmed from being 0-for-4 at the rim and 3-point line. I think she will find her groove, and an ugly game against Lindenwood is a bump in the road you expect from a freshman. Her effort level is high, and as a result, I think she will improve throughout the year.

I was excited for Deng. She is a high-level shooter with a smooth stroke, but her inability to affect the game positively in other ways has made it hard for her to see the floor. She does not rack up deflections, she is a subpar rebounder for someone listed at 6-foot-2 and she does not get to the rim well. A lot of this can be attributed to her tendency to avoid contact. Assuming Van Gytenbeek’s shot positively regresses to her historic mean, Baylor only has three true shooters in Van Gytenbeek, Scott and Fontleroy. Deng would bring high-level shooting, but she has to improve in other areas to have the chance to add her shooting to the mix.

2) Point guard play has been a serious issue

Van Gytenbeek was never going to be asked to be a go-to player this year, but she has struggled in her role through the first two games. While Baylor has been better with her on the floor, Van Gytenbeek’s struggles offensively have been hard to ignore.

The sixth-year guard is 1-for-14 from the field and 0-for-6 from inside the arc this season. Furthermore, she struggled to take care of the ball against Duke, with a 34 turnover rate compared to a 32 assist rate. While I do think the shots will start to fall, given her shooting history, Van Gytenbeek has to minimize turnovers and knock down shots, given her role.

She does not hunt steals, and she is not a strong driver. Van Gytenbeek is historically a pure passer who can provide good spacing and punish teams for overhelping or slow rotations, and if she is playing 27.5 minutes per game, she has to provide a few baskets.

With SMU transfer Ella Brow being sidelined indefinitely, it is harder to pull Van Gytenbeek if she is playing poorly. While Scott has been good as a backup point guard, she can be careless on some passes, as seen against Lindenwood. Turnovers as a whole have been an issue for the Bears, as a 25.0 turnover rate through two games is a serious eyesore. Improved point guard play will help lower those turnovers and bring more stability to the offense.

3) The effort level needs to be more consistent

After a strong, consistent effort against Duke that led to a +11 advantage on the glass and a win, the effort against Lindenwood left much to be desired. A 23.1% offensive rebounding percentage is too low, especially after a 48.8% offensive rebounding percentage against a strong rebounding Duke squad.

After starting the Lindenwood game 18-0, the Bears should have cruised to a 30-point win, but the lack of well-rounded scoring and the rising comfort level led the Lions to cut the lead to six in the fourth quarter. Baylor got away with this drop in effort against Lindenwood, due to the talent disparity, but that cannot be the norm. Great teams want to stay on the gas and blow teams out. This can be improved, but it should be the normal mindset for a championship-contending team.