A proven advanced computer model for the NCAA tournament predicts that the 9 seed Baylor Bears will take down the 8 seed Syracuse Orange in 53.5% of its 10,000 simulations of the game, making the Bears one of the few reliable upset picks in the first round.
This model from SportsLine is one of the most trustworthy projections of the NCAA tournament out there. It simulates each individual game 10,000 times to maximize results and take a shot at predicting one of the most difficult things in sports to predict. After running the simulations of each game, the model advances the team with the highest percentage of victories.
Last season, the model successfully predicted Villanova to win the title and placed in the top five percent of CBS Sports brackets. The model also called a few of the big upsets last season, with 13 seed Buffalo beating 4 seed Arizona, 11 seed Loyola-Chicago taking down 6 seed Miami, and 10 seed Butler snagging a win over 7 seed Arkansas.
In the past three years, the model has successfully predicted 12 of the 18 first-round double-digit upset victories.
In many of the simulations of Thursday’s first-round contest against Syracuse, the Bears absolutely dominate the offensive glass. To Baylor fans, this should be no surprise as they have done this very thing all season, as they ranked fourth in the country with their 36.6% offensive rebound percentage.
The Orange, on the other hand, have been notorious this season for their horrendous defensive rebounding. Syracuse ranked 310th in the nation with their 69.4% defensive rebounding percentage.
The model uses this large discrepancy to solidify their basis of reasoning for the pick.
In the following round, the model overwhelmingly predicts the Bears to fall to the 1 seed of the West Region, Gonzaga. The Bulldogs have the second-best neutral site ranking and the second-highest chance of winning the tournament in the model at 22.2%.
While it’s incredibly difficult for any person or computer model to predict how the NCAA tournament to go, it is still nice to see the Bears come in as a nice sleeper pick to upset in a proven system.
When Baylor fans are filling out their brackets, they should keep this model in mind and not feel too scared taking this upset in the first round. Baylor upsetting Syracuse in 53.5% of simulations is a pretty high number considering the circumstances.
The Baylor Bears face off against the Syracuse Orange at 8:57 p.m CT. Thursday on truTV.
