Film Room: Baylor's offense has a shot to bounce back

The Sooner defense has not been quite as strong as the unit that Sooner fans enjoyed in 2015.  Defensive Coordinator Mike Stoops has come under fierce criticism over the season but fields one of the more talented defenses in the Big 12.

STATISTICS

Oklahoma's defense has given up an average of 33 yards per drive against opposing power five offenses.  This represents a number that is roughly 96% of what those teams generate against other power five defenses.  They do have two outlier performances against Texas Tech (58% higher than expected) and Kansas (51% lower than expected) but otherwise tend to track consistently with their opponent with some games slightly above or below what the opponent usually generates.

The Sooners don't stand out significantly on the stat sheet with regard to their defense.  Their yards per non-sack carry allowed is lower than expected but their yards per pass play is slightly higher and they have a slightly worse than expected sack rate. 

Once you get them in the red zone it is still a challenge as OU gives up around 67% of the available points against these teams - 4% lower than those teams typically get.

DEFENSIVE SCHEME

Oklahoma uses a lot of one-high safety looks much like Texas does.  Cover 1, Cover 3, and the hybrid and matchup variations are the bread and butter looks but OU will involve split safety looks on third down.

Here is a pretty common pre-snap look from their games against Baylor last fall and Texas this season who also runs the Baylor scheme.  On this play OU lines up in a 3-3 stack with three down linemen directly in front of three linebackers to create issues for blockers reaching the second level.  This is complemented by one safety deep and the other rotating down over a slot receiver on the back end to allow them to devote an extra defender to the box.


Their single safety coverages are somewhat similar to what I broke down for the old site back when they switched to the 3-4 in 2013 where I go further in depth. 

PERSONNEL

Up front the Sooners rely on nose tackle #93 Jordan Wade (6-3, 305, RSr.) who has started every game this season and has been a contributor each year in his career in Norman.  They have dealt with injuries at defensive end to returning starters #97 Charles Walker (6-2, 304, RJr.) and #94 Matt Dimon (6-2, 285, Sr.) missing at least five games each.  The primary replacements have been #90 Neville Gallimore (6-3, 310, RFr.) who is a former prized recruit along with #95 Austin Roberts (6-6, 270, Sr.) and #87 D.J. Ward (6-2, 265, RJr.), two players who are pretty similar to Baylor's end personnel.

The Sooners feature #31 Ogbonnia Okoronkwo (6-2, 245, RJr.) as their primary edge linebacker.  He plays a similar position to what Clay Johnston plays for Baylor and is the successor to Eric Striker at OU.  He's a fast player that they ask to do a lot of different things.

The two primary inside linebackers are preseason All-Big 12 linebacker #26 Jordan Evans (6-2, 233, Sr.) and JC transfer #14 Emmanuel Beal (6-1, 215, Jr.) who stepped in after the original starter went down with an injury.  At nickelback the Sooners return #12 Will Johnson (6-1, 195, RJr.) who solidified that spot for OU last season as they made their run to the playoff.  He's a very good fit for the position.

At corner they have the services of one of the Big 12's best corners in #7 Jordan Thomas (6-1, 190, Jr.) who is among the best in the Big 12.  The other corner spot has been a revolving door.  Undersized senior #27 Dakota Austin (5-10, 163, Sr.), converted receiver #16 Michiah Quick (5-11, 188, Jr.), former Baylor signee #4 Parrish Cobb (5-11, 170, Fr.), and #9 Jordan Parker (6-1, 190, Fr.) all have seen time and all have had some difficult moments this season.

The safeties are returning starters #10 Steven Parker (6-1, 205, Jr.) and #13 Ahmad Thomas (6-1, 217, Sr.) who are both capable and experienced.  Parker is one of the best safeties in the Big 12 and gives them a lot of coverage flexibility.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Oklahoma's placekicker #43 Austin Seibert (5-10, 214, So.) is a busy guy who handles plackicking, kickoffs, and punts.  On field goals he is generally reliable.  He has one miss inside of 40 yards on the season.  He averages 41.9 per punt and gets touchbacks on 50% of his kickoffs.  Oklahoma's coverage teams are not bad but rank in the bottom half of the country.  The Sooners are very good in the return game however and Baylor will need to scheme effectively to not give up big plays in the kicking game.

FINAL QUESTIONS

Baylor's offense struggled against TCU last week and was held to a mediocre 27 yards per drive.  What about that matchup did you see that gives Baylor fans reason to think that the offense can get things going in future games?

First and foremost you need to give credit to TCU not just for that game, but the fact they've held their own against power 5 opponents.  Other than the Kansas outlier the Frogs have given up a shocking 76% of what Arkansas, ISU, OU, WVU, and Tech generate against other P5 teams.  That is taking "par" and blowing it away.  So it isn't like Baylor was up against a bad unit and with all the distractions, young receivers, and a less than crisp game from Seth it's not a shock that Baylor didn't just light them up.  I expected more but I didn't expect the Bears to steamroll them either.

Next I have to mention that TCU's entire defense is structured in a way that makes them able to attack spread option running games more effectively than the single deep safety looks that Oklahoma and Tech use or the generally more conservative looks that KSU uses.  Both defenses have their risks and rewards but in a matchup with a dual threat like Seth who was off his game in the air it's not hard to envision TCU being better equipped to defend the Bears.

Based on what you know about each team what is one area you think Baylor would have success attacking?

Rewind to the blackout game Bears all have fond memories of in 2013 instead of last week:  A Baylor team with a leader at QB and some young wideouts struggled to get the typical passing game going against Oklahoma and their tight pass coverages.  What did they do to get it going?

They started working shorter routes like slants in order to take advantage of single coverages.



They also took advantage of numbers in the running game.  The single deep safety coverages allow a defense to add someone to their running defense by having one less safety deep.  However when the offense involves the quarterback in the running game as either a runner himself or by optioning off of a defender it creates a situation where a single deep safety defense is outnumbered.  The ball carrier's defensive counterpart is by default 20 yards downfield and due to this the offense has a one man advantage at the point of attack.  Baylor was able to exploit this with the less than elite runner Bryce Petty.



This is something that is there as long as your line is able to be serviceable blocking their defensive front.  Other teams have been productive with it as you can see.

Can Baylor run this type of thing? 

Absolutely, it was one of the most productive parts of the offense against Texas.



That is something that Baylor didn't have the ability to do last season against OU.  Stidham isn't the runner that Seth is when he's healthy and Jarrett was far from healthy after suffering an injury against Kansas State the week before.  He played but it's not like he was going to regularly threaten a team on the ground the way Seth can break big plays.

If Seth is playing well I would also consider using some RPO's to attack right behind their linebackers if they get a little to eager to attack the run.

Baylor's passing game has been off recently, what is happening?

Other than KD Cannon and Lynx Hawthorne the receivers are all fairly new.  Much like 2013 that saw the passing game fade down the stretch it's a year where the young players need to grow fast.  Seth's injury obviously has impacted the timing as there were fewer reps together in the spring and summer than you normally have as well.

How focused will the team be?  The #CAB blackout, coaches tweeting, and other distractions obviously made an impact last week.

We will find out Saturday and with these things it's usually pretty obvious based on effort and discipline.  Regardless of what anyone thinks of the #CAB happenings that stuff definitely affected both player and coach.

Can Baylor beat OU?

To quote Ahmad Dixon... "can God save a hooker?"  Baylor can but they have to play well, especially on offense as the defense has a huge challenge ahead of them.  It would likely be a shootout but if you get a complete effort out of this team there is not a single team on the schedule they can't beat.  They simply didn't have anywhere near that last week and a well coached team took full advantage.

Oklahoma's defense has struggled at one cornerback position.  Will that be an opportunity to attack in the passing game?

I think if Baylor can get a solid performance from both KD Cannon and Ishmael Zamora I could see this being a big deal based on how Oklahoma has tried to defend both Baylor and Texas over the last two games against this scheme.

PREDICTION

Nobody has any idea what kind of focus or effort they will see from a Baylor team dealing with a national story of a distraction the week after a humiliating loss to a fairly average team.  So obviously my prediction will have to be tempered by which Baylor team gets off the bus in Norman.  Is it the one that delivered a solid win against Oklahoma State or the one who seemed to be focused on anything but football last week?

Oklahoma's offense will likely win the day for them but if the Bears get a good effort and can kickstart the running game they make the Sooners sweat in a game similar to the 2012 matchup.

Baylor 35, Oklahoma 42

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