Film Room: Regular Season Concludes at WVU

Baylor concludes their regular season on the road in Morgantown West Virginia against the third best team in the Big 12, the 9-2 Mountaineers.  West Virginia has been a very good team this year with a dynamic offense and one of the best defenses in the conference.  The Mountaineers are battle tested with a 6-2 Big 12 record as well as non-conference wins over Missouri and BYU.  Head Coach Dana Holgorsen's squad is extremely capable and is a huge challenge for the young Baylor team.

---

OFFENSIVE PRODUCTION

Statistically the Mountaineers generate around 14% more yards per drive than their power five opponents average against other power five teams.  Their best performances based on this statistic were BYU and Texas Tech where WVU averaged roughly 20 yards more than those teams usually give up.  Their worst performances were -5.7 against Texas and -2.37 against Oklahoma State.  This offense is extremely potent but it's not the consistent dominance that you see from Oklahoma where every game averaged above what their opponents gave up and all but three were 14% above or more.  Splitting stats aside, the Baylor defense has their hands full.

West Virginia is one of the best rushing teams Baylor will have faced. Their 6.2 per non sack carry against P5 teams is around 3/4 of a yard more per non-sack carry than other P5 teams do against their opponents.  The Mountaineers also complete 2% more passes and have almost 3/4 of a yard more than expected with their 7.5 per pass play against P5 teams. (Yards per attempt modified by sacks) 

The Mountaineers also do a solid job limiting sacks and give up half of a percent less on sack rate than expected.

SCHEME

This will be the sixth team that Baylor has faced that runs a variation of the Air Raid.  Holgorsen's current version of the Air Raid features more use of the fullback than most. With the starting QB being a good runner, they will get him involved either carrying the ball or optioning off defenders. His presence gives a one man advantage to the running game either as called runs or as run/pass options. A good example is below.  They don't even have a tailback in the game on this play and instead play a fullback in his spot.  The QB can throw the bubble screen or follow the lead blocker inside on a run play.



Even without WVU blocking it perfectly they are able to make room for a five yard gain and this is something that looks right at home with a Kansas State offense that the wide open Mountaineers have adopted.

The offense uses a fair amount of Air-Raid staples like Y-Cross, Y-Sail, Hitches, Verticals, and other concepts.  However this team can absolutely take the top off of the defense and takes more deep shots than many Air Raid teams.



The Mountaineers are much like OU in that they can attack you passing the ball like any Air-Raid team, but the added dynamics of their strong running game and running QB make it even tougher to defend.

PERSONNEL

The man pulling the trigger for the Mountaineers is Texas native #3 Skyler Howard (6-0, 207, Sr.) who is a good decision maker and a real threat to run.  He's a tough and physical player who won't wow you with accuracy or elite arm strength but is capable enough to keep a good defense on it's heels.  He's a winner and a fighter.

Some Baylor fans may not know this, but Skyler on his own volition visited Seth Russell in the hospital after his neck surgery last year.  Win or lose this week, most of Baylor nation should be wishing Howard well.

At tailback WVU has several very capable players.  The big and physical runner everyone knew coming into the year is #7 Rushel Shell (5-10, 225, r-Sr.) who has missed a couple games due to injury but is one of the better backs in the Big 12.  The sparkplug averaging 7.4 per carry and leading WVU in rushing is #25 Justin Crawford. (5-11, 198, Jr.)  Two freshmen who have stepped up to combine for over 600 rushing yards are #4 Kennedy McKoy (6-0, 204, Fr.) and #32 Martell Pettaway (5-10, 203, Fr.) which rounds out their main rotation.  Each is capable as a receiver as well.

The main blocking back is #28 Elijah Wellman (6-1, 240, r-Jr.) who can be a lead blocker or line up as a set tailback as well.  He's a reliable and important piece of the offense as he allows WVU to do a lot of things both running the ball and in pass protection.

The receiving corps is a very explosive group.  The headliner of the bunch is once again #1  Shelton Gibson (6-0, 198, r-Jr.) who is one of the most deadly receivers in the league and capable of breaking solid coverage.  He's the starter at the X outside receiver spot.  He averages a staggering 23.2 yards per reception- 3rd nationally.

The starter at the Z outside receiver spot is the younger brother of a player every Baylor fan will remember.  #32 Ka'Raun White (6-1, 200, r-Jr.) has made a name for himself at the same school that saw his older brother Kevin leave Morgantown as a first round draft pick.  He's a big and athletic target that offers some matchup issues for a defense.  He has 583 yards on the season with 12.1 per reception.

In the slots the Mountaineers start big and experienced #6 Daikiel Shorts Jr. (6-1, 202, Sr.) and the slender but explosive #5 Jovon Durante. (6-0, 172, So.)  Shorts averages 14.8 per reception and has 815 yards.

Up front WVU features an offensive line that combined has over 120 starts with their first string.   It will be one of the best units Baylor has faced this season.

---

DEFENSE

The Mountaineer defense is the most exotic scheme in the Big 12 and Defensive Coordinator Tony Gibson has one of the best units in the league.  The Mountaineers hold opposing Big 12 offenses to 92% of what they average against other Power 5 opponents.  They have struggled a bit more as the season went on with Texas, Oklahoma, and Iowa State but had an extremely impressive run against Kansas State, Texas Tech, TCU, and Oklahoma State where they averaged almost ten yards fewer than expected per-drive.  The only early season blemish was allowing BYU 12 more yards per drive than the 30 yards they averaged against their other Power 5 opponents.  West Virginia also held Missouri below what the Tigers averaged against their SEC schedule.
The Mountaineer defense holds opponents below expectations in yards per non-sack carry, yards per pass play, and completion percentage.  They also force more turnovers than other Power 5 teams do against these opponents.  They do have a lower than expected sack rate (4.51% vs 5.71% by other P5 teams) but that may simply be a matter of scheme.

SCHEME

Gibson's unit runs a 3-3-5 scheme with three linemen, three linebackers, three safeties, and two cornerbacks.   It's very similar personnel-wise to Baylor's three man front which I broke down earlier this year.  A general idea of how they line up can be seen below as they will present many different fronts by shifting around the three groups of three.  This defense has several fast linebackers and safeties and will deploy them in different and interchangable ways to get advantages.



In coverage the Mountaineers tend to rely heavily on Cover Three (3 deep zone) or man coverage with Cover 1 (One deep safety) or Cover Zero (no deep help) as their preferred options.  Their Cover Three packages are designed to be multiple as well.  Below are three examples of the same basic three-deep idea, but three very different ways of getting there that can confuse a quarterback.



West Virginia will change their tactics frequently to avoid being easily isolated.  They will rush six or seven defenders on one play and drop eight people into coverage on the next one.  They feature a very good blitz and pressure package as well.

PERSONNEL

The Mountaineer defensive personnel lost their entire secondary and linebacking corps from last season as well as their nose tackle.  This unit simply reloaded and has been spectacular for such a retooled group.  The two returners are standout defensive ends #97 Noble Nwachukwu  (6-2, 275, r-Sr.) and #95 Christian Brown (6-2, 305, r-Sr.) who combine for 61 career starts.  The new starter is longtime contributor #49 Darrien Howard (6-1, 300, Sr.) at Nose Tackle.  Their ability to be sturdy run defenders and still rush the passer has been critical for WVU.

At Linebacker the trio of Weakside Linebacker #11 David Long (5-11, 223r-Fr.), Middle Linebacker #3 Al-Rasheed Benton (6-1, 237, r-Jr.), and Strongside Linebacker #30 Justin Arndt (5-11, 215, r-Sr.) fit the classic Big 12 mold.  They are the smaller and faster players that are able to be versatile players in coverage, run defense, and on blitzes.  Speed is the key for these guys and they run very well.

The swiss army knives at Gibson's disposal are his three safeties who give him the flexibility to match up in many different ways.  WVU's version of Baylor's Bear position is the Spur and yet another member of the White family is making an impact -  Kyzir White (6-3, 221, Jr.) who is a JC transfer.  The starter at Boundary Safety is #22 Jarrod Harper (6-0, 210, r-Sr.) who actually started in Waco last season.  The starter at Free Safety is #2 Jeremy Tyler (5-11, 207, Sr.) who offers a lot of experience.   At corner WVU features experienced players #13 Rasul Douglas (6-2, 203, r-Sr.) and #24 Maurice Fleming (5-11, 203, r-Sr.).

---

SPECIAL TEAMS

WVU's placekicker is #48 Mike Molina (5-8, 180, r-Jr.) who is 14/19 on the year with only three misses inside of 40 yards.  He also is the kickoff man and gets touchbacks 29% of the time.  Their punter #15 Billy Kinney (6-4, 213, r-So.) averages 42 yards per punt.

Their coverage units are not very strong.  Kickoff coverage is ranked 100th in opponent yards per return and punt coverage is ranked 60th.  The Mountaineer returners are 124th in punt returns but a strong 37th nationally in kickoff returns.

---

Final Questions

How has their offense progressed since last season?

I think that Howard and his receivers have all grown up a lot.  WVU lost most of their receiving threats after 2014 and their senior QB.  WVU has done a good job both in bringing them along and in tailoring the scheme to fit the strengths of their personnel, particularly Skyler Howard.

Baylor's defense has struggled against other Air Raid teams recently.  How does this matchup compare to the other four Big 12 teams that run the air raid in terms of how they match up to Baylor?

This is a team that can really run at you. Unlike Oklahoma State I don't think Baylor can play conservative in coverage and still hold up on the ground.  This is a similar threat to what Baylor faced in Norman and the mobile quarterback will have some carryover from Tech and TCU.

In the air I see the Mountaineers as similar to TCU- very explosive but not as consistent as the passing attacks at OU, OSU, and Tech.

How would you recommend Baylor defend this team?

I think WVU much like OU will require Baylor to go heavy against the run.  Aggressive match quarters schemes, cover zero blitzes, and other gambles will likely be needed to keep WVU from simply running it right at the Bears.  It's imperative to get bodies against the run due to how much WVU involves their QB to outnumber the defensive front as an outnumbered and undersized front would struggle in that situation.  None of this is to downplay WVU's passing game but rather to say the odds are better if you can stop them from running.

This carries the risk of getting beaten in the air but if Baylor can force some miscues by WVU's passing game it can limit how much damage Shell & company do to them on the ground.  I don't think that Howard will be as consistently deadly on deep throws as Mahomes was last week. Possibly playing off-man instead of press technique could help as well.

Baylor may also need to use their four man front to get some additional size against the run and not let WV's offensive formations put some of the smaller defensive ends or the Bear nickel players in tough run assignments which can sometimes happen in the 3 down alignment.

How did Zach Smith perform against Texas Tech?

Baylor was able to get a pretty good game from Zach Smith with 65% completions, 7.9 per pass attempt including one sack, and 12.6 per completion.  He played through some pain in his neck and kept delivering accurate throws with nice zip on the ball.  He impressed me with how he played and I am excited to see this kid perform.

What led to Tech stopping Baylor on the ground on key downs?

My personal opinion is that the playcalling was predictable and it allowed Tech to run blitz and outnumber the Baylor running game.  It's hard to run when those linebackers are simply blitzing whenever it's a run call and there were also times when Baylor ran into fronts where there were seven blockers against nine defenders.  The schemes have to improve this week.

How would you build the offense this week to help out Zach Smith?

This is a game where bringing back some of the REALLY wide splits for receivers could be a big help much like it helped at points in the Tech game.  Texas didn't use that many really wide formations in their game in Austin probably due to the arm strength of Buchelle.  I think this is something BU can do a better job of.

Below you see on these plays against WVU and other teams that the lateral distance they have to cover forces the defense to be obvious in how they plan to cover each receiver.  I believe it is to Baylor's advantage to use Zach Smith's very powerful arm strength to force WVU into obvious alignments and let him get the ball out of his hands whether it's 00 personnel or 12 personnel.  Baylor must be ready and capable of breaking WVU's single coverages in order to do this.  I don't want to give Baylor's young QB a lot of complex reads in closed spaces as it can lead to pressured decisions and more disguised coverages.  A steady diet of wide formations, easy reads, and some run/pass options to keep WVU's safeties and linebackers honest could go a long way towards helping Smith.



If WVU responds by giving help to the receivers, BU should be capable of running against the more favorable fronts that result from this and getting Linwood, Williams, and Hasty going.  The goal is to force them to play you straight up in favorable situations and give the kid a chance for some clear chances to succeed.

PREDICTION

Baylor plays hard but the Mountaineers have no distractions, more depth, and less youth at key positions.  The Mountaineers win this one at home as Baylor looks towards their bowl game and the announcement of a new coach.

Baylor 28, West Virginia 38