Predicting the Big 12 Season: Week 1

Welcome back! I hope no one thought this feature wouldn’t return for another year just becausee of delays and the lack of spring football. It may make things harder but I am up for the challenge. It’s time to project the Big 12 season once again. Over the next couple of months, I will go through the entirety of the upcoming season in the Big 12, pick the conference champion and make bowl projections.

Obviously, there is still a lot that can change but barring significant injuries for any of the teams we are in a good spot for some predictions.

With that said, let's do this!

Recap of 2019

I thought it might be fun to go through and check out the results from last year to see if I was close or way off. 

As you can see the top two were almost spot-on as they were the two I picked to go to the conference championship game and they did. After that it was a total cluster of mediocre records and teams. I was way off on Iowa State’s season, as they just could not close out the tight games. I was close on Texas’ record, way off on TCU as they fell into free fall, and right on the money with Oklahoma State. Kansas State was my lower team that overachieved. At the bottom things were pretty close as I finished a game away on Texas Tech, West Virginia and Kansas.

I will take it but I am hoping to do better this season!

Week 1

Thursday, September 3rd

Oregon State 21 at Oklahoma State 48 (Stillwater)

The first game of the season in the Big 12 should be one with a lot of points, as these teams were in the top 50 in scoring offense and outside the top 60 in scoring defense. The deadly trio of QB Spencer Sanders, RB Chuba Hubbard and WR Tylan Wallace come out of the gates on fire as they combine for 400 yards of total offense and five touchdowns. The Cowboys’ experienced defense forces three turnovers as they are able to open the game up and allow Mike Gundy’s squad to gain a big lead early. Oregon State scores some garbage touchdowns to make it look closer than it actually was.

Saturday, September 5th

Texas Tech 45 at UTEP 9 (El Paso)

Texas Tech started 2-0 last year before going 2-8 to finish the season. Matt Wells will have his guys ready to play in the opener with a new quarterback. My guess is that it will be Alan Bowman, but keep an eye on Maverick McIvor as the season progresses. On the flip side, for the third year in a row, the Miners won one game or less. Yikes! This one won’t be close. Bowman lights up the scoreboard with 300 yards and three touchdown passes, including two to Erik Ezukanma. Running back SaRodrick Thompson runs in two more as the Red Raiders rout the Miners.

Missouri State 10 at Oklahoma 59 (Norman)

Oklahoma will be breaking in a new starting quarterback this season but, this time, it won’t be a transfer. I think redshirt freshman Spencer Rattler gets the start and plays well during his first outing as he scores three total touchdowns and has over 300 total yards of offense. The Sooners’ experienced offensive line gets rolling, as well. Running backs Kennedy Brooks, Rhamondre Stevenson and true freshman Seth McGowan pile up over 300 yards and four touchdowns on the ground. Missouri State won just one game last year they will be out of this one very early.

Buffalo 24 at Kansas State 31 (Manhattan)

This is a sneaky-difficult opening game for the Wildcats, I expect this game to be closer than many would think. Kansas State gave up over 5.0 yards per carry last year and they are facing a team that was top 10 in rushing offense. K-State tailback Harry Trotter and quarterback Skylar Thompson combine for 200 yards and two scores on the ground, but the Bulls get the run game going, as well. Tailback  Jaret Patterson rushes for over 150 yards and two touchdowns in this one. Both teams run the ball and play very good defense throughout, but late in the game the quarterback play takes over. Skylar Thompson hits Briley Moore for a 20-yard touchdown with five minutes left on the clock to give KSU a seven-point lead. Buffalo gets the ball with a chance to tie but KSU DE Wyatt Hubert sacks Bulls QB Kyle Vantrease and causes a fumble which the Wildcats recover to give KSU the narrow victory.

South Florida 13 at Texas 41 (Austin)

As usual, Texas heads into the season with big expectations, and the Longhorns don’t disappoint in week one. QB Sam Ehlingher throws three touchdown passes and moves the offense well. RB’s Keaontay Ingram and Roschon Johnson each score on the ground. The Texas defense steps up in a big way, forcing three turnovers and limiting the Bulls to under 300 yards of offense.

West Virginia 20 vs. Florida State 27 (Atlanta)

Another very intriguing game on the slate for week one pits two teams who are looking to have improvements after mediocre seasons a year ago. Both defenses play well in this game and prevent the offenses from really doing a ton of damage. WVU DL Dante and Darius Stills combine for three sacks and a forced fumble. Florida State DT Marvin Wilson is unblockable and CB Asante Samuel Jr. gets his first interception of the season. WVU QB Jarrett Doege throws for 250 yards and two scores as the Mountaineers are forced to rely heavily on the passing game. The Mountaineers are down by just three points heading to the 4th quarter but the Seminoles score twice late to stay in control and come away with the win.

Baylor 37 vs. Ole Miss 27 (Houston)

Both of these teams should have pretty strong offenses and defenses that will need to grow throughout the season. Baylor QB Charlie Brewer piles up over 350 yards of total offense and three touchdowns. The Bears also find a way to get the run game going as John Lovett and Trestan Ebner combine for 100 yards and a score. The Baylor defense struggles to slow down Ole Miss QB John Rhys Plumlee as he throws for 200 yards and runs for nearly 150 yards. The Bears hold the lead throughout but it is a back and forth affair for a lot of the game until the Baylor defense finally figures some things out in the final quarter. DE William Bradley-King forces a strip sack and safety JT Woods hauls in an interception. Baylor capitalizes on both of those turnovers with points and holds on for a win in Dave Aranda’s first game.

TCU 24 at Cal 17 (Berkeley)

A rematch of the epic 2018 Cheez-It Bowl, a 10-7 TCU victory which saw a grand total of nine interceptions between the two teams. This game should look much different but still will be a defensive battle. TCU runs the ball and keeps running it as QB Max Duggan, freshman RB Zach Evans and Darwin Barlow combine for 200 yards on the ground and two scores. Cal QB Chase Garbers is able to lead a couple scoring drives to keep the game even heading into the 4th quarter. But then things come undone for Cal as Max Duggan hits TE Pro Wells for a 25-yard touchdown. On the next Cal drive, TCU safety Trevon Moehrig picks off Chase Garbers and returns it inside the Cal 20. TCU scores a field goal from there to seal the deal.

New Hampshire 17 vs. Kansas 30 (Lawrence)

The Kansas defense is going to be awful once again but it should be fine to win this one. RB Pooka Williams has over 150 yards rushing and two touchdowns. QB Thomas MacVittie looks good in week one as he is able to throw for nearly 300 yards and two touchdowns. WR’s Andrew Parchment and Stephon Robinson each score and make a big impact week one. Kansas makes the first week of the season look a little easier than in the past few seasons.

South Dakota 7 at Iowa State 44 (Ames)

The Cyclones are poised for a big season with many key starters returning. Brock Purdy throws three touchdowns, two to Charlie Kolar. RB Breece Hall adds a pair of touchdowns on the ground. Everyone forgets star DE Jaquan Bailey redshirted last season well he makes an impact in the first week of the season with two sacks and a forced fumble. Cyclones roll.

Big 12 Standings

1. Baylor — 1-0 (0-0)

1. Iowa State — 1-0 (0-0)

1. Kansas — 1-0 (0-0)

1. Kansas State — 1-0 (0-0)

1. Oklahoma — 1-0 (0-0)

1. Oklahoma State — 1-0 (0-0)

1. TCU — 1-0 (0-0)

1. Texas — 1-0 (0-0)

1. Texas Tech — 1-0 (0-0)

10. West Virginia — 0-1 (0-0)