TechDawgMc said:
Question about Dak
When Dak started with the Cowboys, and probably for the first 2-3 years, the knock that was most consistently made against him was that he didn't take enough chances. He threw very few interceptions in the first few years. He tended to play safe and not make dangerous throws.
Now he's known for turning the ball over.
So here's the question. What changed? Is it just that the team is asking him to do too much--because the running game isn't getting the yards that Zeke did in his first season or two? Has there been a coaching push to take more chances that Dak isn't handling well?
He does seem to have some accuracy issues. If he throws the ball two yards further on the bomb to Lamb, they score a TD and it's a different game. He also missed on the long post to Gallup. And threw it behind Lamb a couple of times. Those aren't easy fixes, but it seems like that's a different issue than the mistakes.
There's been some speculation, including from RG3, that Dak's throwing thumb was never 100% this year after he came back, and the floaty balls, occasional lack of zip in tight windows and loose spirals were a consequence of that. That's a few of his picks right there.
That does not explain the throws he made that were just bad decisions, however. The advanced analytics would tell you a few things when you compare this year to Dak's 2018, the last time he threw for fewer than 10 picks in a full season:
1. Dak's bad throw % and on target throw % were the same as 2018, when he only threw 8 INTs. So it's not necessary the number of bad throws that got him into trouble.
2. His pressure per dropback was almost 10% higher in 2018 than it was in 2022, which tells you he's faced more pressure and thrown fewer picks, so it's not necessarily the lack of pocket time to blame.
3. The Cowboys had a better overall running game in 2022 compared to 2018, so he's not being asked to shoulder more of the load and throw more, so it isn't a lack of ground support on average.
There's always a confluence of factors, but ultimately I think this is just who Dak was in 2022. He wasn't consistently reading coverages well, particularly on sitting backers underneath and comeback routes to the boundary, where most of his picks came. Unfortunately these are also prime pick-6 throws. Take the pick-6 he threw against Washington in the season finale. He threw a terrible ball on a comeback that was dropped. He threw the same ball, the same way, literally the next play and the CB took it back for 6. That's inexcusable. No idea what was going through his head at times this year.
There aren't a ton of external factors to blame. His running game supported him. He had enough time to throw. He wasn't sacked or hit a ton. He had a bonafide #1 WR and decent enough pass-catching depth (although Gallup's route running was pretty bad). And he mostly didn't throw a large volume of bad passes.
He just made some exceedingly dumb decisions on a relatively small amount of big throws. And those added up.