That's a reasonable analysis but I still have doubts. Tech certainly can have a good season in the sense of going over .500 & getting a bowl game. I don't think they will finish with more than 7-8 wins nor will they contend for a conference title.

Then again, so much is different with the portal & NIL these things are more difficult to predict & they have always been mostly guesswork anyways. Additionally, the Big 12 has 4 new members and we really don't know how smoothly they will integrate into the conference or how competitive they will be. In any sport.