He's 8-5… calm down, you're acting like the dude just took Tech to the playoffs year 1.

JP1037 said:

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Baylor beat Tech on the road last year. How good can they be?

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Baylor played well that game although we had a lot of luck too, especially how their QBs kept throwing picks!

tmcats said:

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bear2be2 said:

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tmcats said:

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joey coaches like he's still playing on friday nights. that only works with superior talent. ku finished the season 1-7. isu may be most improved but the floor is really low for them - .500 would be significant. i have no clue what central florida is bringing, but they open b12 play in manhattan, ks. i believe the four newcomers are going to struggle with depth as the season wears on.

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What does this mean exactly?

From my vantage, Joey McGuire just coached Tech to its best win total since 2013 in his first year as a college head coach and is recruiting at a higher level than any Tech coach in ages. Whatever he's doing seems to be working.

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it means going for it on 4th down in your own territory against well coached opponents is fool's play. he got stuff more than once in manhattan last year and lost the game. i'm sure there are other examples.

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Tell that to Dave Aranda, who won the Big 12 doing the exact same thing in 2021.

The fool's play is punting on fourth and 2 yards or less in the vast majority of instances.

parch said:

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bear2be2 said:

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parch said:

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bear2be2 said:

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parch said:

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It seems like Tech's hype is piled almost entirely on the back of that Ole Miss bowl game, when Shough went off. Otherwise their end of year run came against a broken Kansas team, an Iowa State team playing out the string, and a way down OU at home.

I think their wins O/U should probably be around where ours is. Talent-wise I just don't see them as a team to beat in 2023.

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I don't care who you're playing, a 4-0 finish to a Power 5 schedule is impressive. Beats the holy hell out of what we did to close 2022.

I think Tech will go as Shough goes in 2023. He was playing at a really high level at the end of the season. If he can stay healthy and repeat that, they'll be tough to beat.

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And yet every one of those teams they beat in that stretch... we beat as well. And we weren't very good last year. I credit them for winning very winnable games, but nothing in that stretch run projects Big 12 frontrunners or NY6 predictions as some have tossed out. Shough's numbers stretched over a season projected right on Blake Shapen's stat line.

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We didn't have a single win last year as good as Tech's against Ole Miss or Texas. Other than them, we beat nothing but dregs.

It's OK to give Tech a little credit. We have scoreboard, but they had a better season than us. I would trade them for their 2022 season in a heartbeat. And based on momentum and returning talent, I'm more bullish on their 2023, too. Hopefully this Baylor team proves me wrong.

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This isn't about us vs. Tech, it's about Tech vs. expectations. It's ridiculous to elevate Tech to Big 12 frontrunners at this point based on literally anything.

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There is no frontrunner in this year's Big 12. That's why people are talking about Tech as a darkhorse. There was an insane amount of turnover on our league's top teams last year.

Texas is probably the favorite. But only a fool would spend a lot on that stock.

IowaBear said:

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He's 8-5… calm down, you're acting like the dude just took Tech to the playoffs year 1.

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Many of the same people downplaying his success now were saying he was going to be a disaster as a college head football coach. That's not a coincidence.

These are largely the same people who trashed Rhule while he was winning 11 games and leading us to a New Year's Six bowl game.

I have no idea what level of success he will or won't have. However he won 8 games year 1 congratulations to him! However broken record ALOT went Techs way. That team could have easily been 4-8. Thankful for what he did at BU. But he left, I could give a **** less what he does at Tech

IowaBear said:

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I have no idea what level of success he will or won't have. However he won 8 games year 1 congratulations to him! However broken record ALOT went Techs way. That team could have easily been 4-8. Thankful for what he did at BU. But he left, I could give a **** less what he does at Tech

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Whether you care or not is irrelevant. It has no bearing whatsoever on what kind of coach he is or will be. I couldn't care less if anyone here likes Joey McGuire or not. But Baylor fans look like fools trying to denigrate the momentum he's building in Lubbock and the excitement he's generating among that fan base.

IowaBear said:

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You're trying to awfully hard to defend someone who doesn't need defended. It's not like Techs ever had much to celebrate. Of course 8 wins got them excited… it'll be 7 at best this year (I'll eat crow if I'm wrong) they aren't winning the B12 or sniffing double digit wins.

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The Big 12 is really lucky it's not playing a round robin schedule this year. There's not a team in it that would lose less than three games if it was. This could be a disastrous season for our conference on the national stage.

It will be fun for Big 12 fans because of the parity. But nobody is going to be particularly good IMO.

The truth of the matter is preseason hype is nothing more than that: hype. It's also all f sad oscillation because nobody knows how the season will play out. Just like the rankings, it's all guesswork and demonstrates only one thing: we are eager for football season. We still will have to wait until August.

That I agree with. Pure speculation but I'd put Cincy, Houston, ISU, WV as the bottom 4. Texas and KSU at the top and everyone else in the middle. Just guesses on my end of how it'll shake out.
My other prediction. Houston and WV have coaching openings at seasons end

Very possible those predictions pan out. But we can always count on Texas to underachieve. They have done that for over a decade almost every year. Their best year in that stretch was losing to OU in Arlington & beating Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. Naturally, they fired their HC after that high level of success. Granted Herman had lots of issues but who doesn't at Texas?

historian said:

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Very possible those predictions pan out. But we can always count on Texas to underachieve. They have done that for over a decade almost every year. Their best year in that stretch was losing to OU in Arlington & beating Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. Naturally, they fired their HC after that high level of success. Granted Herman had lots of issues but who doesn't at Texas?

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This is wrong...they have underachieved for twenty years.

Good point. And they gave a nasty habit of firing their better coaches. Mack Brown comes to mind.

IowaBear said:

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That I agree with. Pure speculation but I'd put Cincy, Houston, ISU, WV as the bottom 4. Texas and KSU at the top and everyone else in the middle. Just guesses on my end of how it'll shake out.
My other prediction. Houston and WV have coaching openings at seasons end

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Kansas State lost most of its defense and its best weapon (by far) on offense. The Wildcats will fall back to the pack IMO.

historian said:

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Very possible those predictions pan out. But we can always count on Texas to underachieve. They have done that for over a decade almost every year. Their best year in that stretch was losing to OU in Arlington & beating Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. Naturally, they fired their HC after that high level of success. Granted Herman had lots of issues but who doesn't at Texas?

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They beat Georgia in the bowl game that year. But it doesn't change your point. Texas gets way more love than it should every year.

whitetrash said:

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Big12Bear said:

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Three OT wins last year - all at home, all incredibly lucky. Not sold on them just yet. Give me the under.

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UH: takes a FG on 4th and goal from the 3 in 2nd OT; Tech scores TD on next play.

UT: Bijan fumbles on first play of OT, Tech wins on FG

OU: OU misses FG in OT, Tech wins on FG

That's the difference between 7-5 and 4-8.

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UH allowed them to convert a 4th & 20 for a crucial score. Stop that and it was ballgame.

Incredible fortune. I'm not sure I've ever heard of a D1 team winning 3 Home OT games in a single year.

bear2be2 said:

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IowaBear said:

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That I agree with. Pure speculation but I'd put Cincy, Houston, ISU, WV as the bottom 4. Texas and KSU at the top and everyone else in the middle. Just guesses on my end of how it'll shake out.
My other prediction. Houston and WV have coaching openings at seasons end

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Kansas State lost most of its defense and its best weapon (by far) on offense. The Wildcats will fall back to the pack IMO.

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lost four to the nfl draft (3 def, 1 offense) and five more to free agent contracts (3 offense, 1 defense, 1 kicker), so there's truth in that factual part of your k-state take.

IowaBear said:

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That I agree with. Pure speculation but I'd put Cincy, Houston, ISU, WV as the bottom 4. Texas and KSU at the top and everyone else in the middle. Just guesses on my end of how it'll shake out.
My other prediction. Houston and WV have coaching openings at seasons end

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we agree on texas. they'll be the preseason pick followed by easy-schedule-ou. k-state likely picked third followed by baylor, tcu, txt in some order. the new teams will have a rough go it, methinks. isu may be most improved. and yes, both brown and holgorsen will be on the chopping block at season's end.

https://athlonsports.com/college-football/big-12-football-spring-2023-power-rankings

Texas Tech 2023

Offense:
- Returning 10 starters
- Shough is on ESPN 2023 Potential Heisman list
- Scouts have Shough listed as a first rounder (if he stays healthy)
- QB2 (Morton) is the highest QB recruit in Tech history and also has the strongest arm and has the highest ceiling according to the staff. Yes, he played like crap against Baylor but he played great against OSU and WVU as a hurt RS Freshman. Tech will have a solid QB room again.
- Better O Line from transfers who have played in Kittley's offense before
- Very, very fast WR transfer who has game breaking speed
- Top 25 recruiting class

Defense:
- Returns 6 starters
- 3 super star transfers to carry the weight Waters and Wilson carried in 2022
- Most experienced D Line in the Big12, not the best... although they might be by the end of the season
- More speed and size on the defense
- Second year under Deruyter, who made massive improvements to a defense that has struggled for years
- Top 25 recruiting class

The hype is not from the Ole Miss game. Or beating a bad Kansas team. It is from winning 8 games with 3 injured QB's while having a first year head coach and brand new staff. That is not easy to do. The team got better as the year went on, especially the defense. Not perfect by any means, but they played hard, chased the ball, pressured the QB and made stops when it mattered. Tech could win games 14-10 or 51-48. It didnt matter, they'd find a way to win. This might look like inconsistency, but I see it as playing to and with your competition. Tech could win a defensive battle game in 15 degree weather in Ames. Then the next week they beat OU in a shootout. They found ways to win games down the stretch. Something Kliff and Wells could not wrap there head around. The team got better week after week. Outside of Baylor embarrassing this team in front of 63,000 people, Tech was in every single game in the 2023 season. I dont see that changing in 2023 barring some crazy injuries.

Year two under this staff will be the big test. All I have listed is just ornaments and lights... It means nothing until they are hung on a tree and plugged in.

Tech 2023 Ceiling: 10-2
Tech 2023 Floor: 7-5
Prediction: 9-3

Baylor also won those games with a HC who has been at Baylor for 3+ years and Shapen was relatively healthy the entire season. Yes, he got banged up but he didnt break a collarbone or pull a muscle in his throwing arm.
Tech beat these teams with QB1, QB2 and QB3 while having a first year head coach and a brand new staff. Its not the same. You're comparing apples to oranges. If you can't see how these wins are different, you're either very new to sports or are not fully breaking it down and analyzing it.

Holy cow you're salty. Do you even keep up with sports outside of Baylor? None of this good press came from Lubbock. Shough being on ESPN's 2023 Heisman list came from ESPN... not Lubbock. Tech being picked to play Bama in the Cotton Bowl came from Brett Mcmurphy... who is an Oklahoma State alum... he's not from Lubbock or associated with Tech. Tech being preseason top 25 came from ESPN and 247... not Lubbock.

Do your research before you post ignorant comments... it does nothing but make you look silly!

IowaBear said:

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He's 8-5… calm down, you're acting like the dude just took Tech to the playoffs year 1.

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Given how pathetic Tubberville, Kingsbury, and Wells did from 2010 to 2021, they have to crow about something.

Tech's floor is lower than 7-5, more like 4-8 maybe 5-7

While things are looking decent for Tech, all of this hype sounds like Baylor 2022 and we all know how that turned out.

Aberzombie1892 said:

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While things are looking decent for Tech, all of this hype sounds like Baylor 2022 and we all know how that turned out.

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Baylor's hype in 2022 was stupid. We lost virtually every skill player starter on offense and almost every impact player on defense.

I think the K-State hype is much closer to what Baylor received last year than what Tech is receiving. With so much talent back, Tech is actually the type of experienced team that usually jumps up and has a great season in the Big 12 (Baylor in 2019, Iowa State in 2020, Baylor and OSU in 2021, TCU and Kansas State in 2022, etc.).

bear2be2 said:

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Aberzombie1892 said:

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While things are looking decent for Tech, all of this hype sounds like Baylor 2022 and we all know how that turned out.

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Baylor's hype in 2022 was stupid. We lost virtually every skill player starter on offense and almost every impact player on defense.

I think the K-State hype is much closer to what Baylor received last year than what Tech is receiving. With so much talent back, Tech is actually the type of experienced team that usually jumps up and has a great season in the Big 12 (Baylor in 2019, Iowa State in 2020, Baylor and OSU in 2021, TCU and Kansas State in 2022, etc.).

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Agreed fully on Baylor. In a different thread, I told someone that the last four times Baylor has lost 6 or more players to the draft, it won at most 6 regular season games the year after.

I would agree with the bolded, but the fact that a high profile commentator would even project Tech in a NY6 is probably a sign of their hype. It's so fascinating because despite that prediction, some post-spring predictions from major publications do not even have Tech in their top 25. Looking at their schedule, they miss OU, but they do have Oregon, KSU, TCU, UCF, and @Texas and that does not bode well for a strong season (other than the fact that those games are all at home but one).

Aberzombie1892 said:

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bear2be2 said:

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Aberzombie1892 said:

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While things are looking decent for Tech, all of this hype sounds like Baylor 2022 and we all know how that turned out.

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Baylor's hype in 2022 was stupid. We lost virtually every skill player starter on offense and almost every impact player on defense.

I think the K-State hype is much closer to what Baylor received last year than what Tech is receiving. With so much talent back, Tech is actually the type of experienced team that usually jumps up and has a great season in the Big 12 (Baylor in 2019, Iowa State in 2020, Baylor and OSU in 2021, TCU and Kansas State in 2022, etc.).

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Agreed fully on Baylor. In a different thread, I told someone that the last four times Baylor has lost 6 or more players to the draft, it won at most 6 regular season games the year after.

I would agree with the bolded, but the fact that a high profile commentator would even project Tech in a NY6 is probably a sign of their hype. It's so fascinating because despite that prediction, some post-spring predictions from major publications do not even have Tech in their top 25. Looking at their schedule, they miss OU, but they do have Oregon, KSU, TCU, UCF, and @Texas and that does not bode well for a strong season (other than the fact that those games are all at home but one).

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To me, a lot depends on Shough. If he stays healthy and plays the way he did at the end of last year, Tech is going to be tough to beat. If he gets hurt or struggles -- both decent possibilities -- they'll probably go 7-5.

I've followed Behren Morton since he was a high school freshman and think he's going to be a really good college quarterback, but I think Shough unlocked something in that team late last season.

The Big 12 is a really fun and interesting conference because half the league or more could finish somewhere between 5-7 or 10-2. The talent level is so close, generally speaking, that final records are typically decided by other factors -- experience, health, luck, etc. Tech has the experience, which is IMO the biggest predictor of success in our league. But, like everyone else, it will need its share of those other things to have the type of season some foresee.

Joeys's posts notwithstanding (more likely one of his GSA's), I think Baylor has a good chance of beating Tech when they come to Waco.

I see Texas Tech going 7-5

bear2be2 said:

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parch said:

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bear2be2 said:

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parch said:

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bear2be2 said:

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parch said:

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It seems like Tech's hype is piled almost entirely on the back of that Ole Miss bowl game, when Shough went off. Otherwise their end of year run came against a broken Kansas team, an Iowa State team playing out the string, and a way down OU at home.

I think their wins O/U should probably be around where ours is. Talent-wise I just don't see them as a team to beat in 2023.

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I don't care who you're playing, a 4-0 finish to a Power 5 schedule is impressive. Beats the holy hell out of what we did to close 2022.

I think Tech will go as Shough goes in 2023. He was playing at a really high level at the end of the season. If he can stay healthy and repeat that, they'll be tough to beat.

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And yet every one of those teams they beat in that stretch... we beat as well. And we weren't very good last year. I credit them for winning very winnable games, but nothing in that stretch run projects Big 12 frontrunners or NY6 predictions as some have tossed out. Shough's numbers stretched over a season projected right on Blake Shapen's stat line.

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We didn't have a single win last year as good as Tech's against Ole Miss or Texas. Other than them, we beat nothing but dregs.

It's OK to give Tech a little credit. We have scoreboard, but they had a better season than us. I would trade them for their 2022 season in a heartbeat. And based on momentum and returning talent, I'm more bullish on their 2023, too. Hopefully this Baylor team proves me wrong.

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This isn't about us vs. Tech, it's about Tech vs. expectations. It's ridiculous to elevate Tech to Big 12 frontrunners at this point based on literally anything.

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There is no frontrunner in this year's Big 12. That's why people are talking about Tech as a darkhorse. There was an insane amount of turnover on our league's top teams last year.

Texas is probably the favorite. But only a fool would spend a lot on that stock.

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I think there is. This is the first year I have thought Texas is probably the best team. I know they've been hyped but no year since 13 or 14 have I thought they were one of the front runners. I think they are this year. OU due to their terrible schedule and K State. I would say those three with texas are a clear group.

Tech/TCU/BU are a cluster in the next tier with BU or Tech the most likely to spring up and surprise.

Surprisingly the win totals look the most accurate as far as order as I can remember. It seems easier to project bc some of the bottom teams project to be really bad football teams.

bear2be2 said:

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Aberzombie1892 said:

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While things are looking decent for Tech, all of this hype sounds like Baylor 2022 and we all know how that turned out.

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Baylor's hype in 2022 was stupid. We lost virtually every skill player starter on offense and almost every impact player on defense.

I think the K-State hype is much closer to what Baylor received last year than what Tech is receiving. With so much talent back, Tech is actually the type of experienced team that usually jumps up and has a great season in the Big 12 (Baylor in 2019, Iowa State in 2020, Baylor and OSU in 2021, TCU and Kansas State in 2022, etc.).

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But what about those elite pro level lines on both sides of the ball? Yeah that never happened but some of the national projections were wild. Many had Bu's O-line and D-line as top 10 national units. I think that drove the hype and the lines turned out nowhere near that level.

Even if they had still a 8-4 to 9-3 team with such weak skill play.

Quinton said:

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bear2be2 said:

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parch said:

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bear2be2 said:

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parch said:

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bear2be2 said:

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parch said:

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It seems like Tech's hype is piled almost entirely on the back of that Ole Miss bowl game, when Shough went off. Otherwise their end of year run came against a broken Kansas team, an Iowa State team playing out the string, and a way down OU at home.

I think their wins O/U should probably be around where ours is. Talent-wise I just don't see them as a team to beat in 2023.

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I don't care who you're playing, a 4-0 finish to a Power 5 schedule is impressive. Beats the holy hell out of what we did to close 2022.

I think Tech will go as Shough goes in 2023. He was playing at a really high level at the end of the season. If he can stay healthy and repeat that, they'll be tough to beat.

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And yet every one of those teams they beat in that stretch... we beat as well. And we weren't very good last year. I credit them for winning very winnable games, but nothing in that stretch run projects Big 12 frontrunners or NY6 predictions as some have tossed out. Shough's numbers stretched over a season projected right on Blake Shapen's stat line.

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We didn't have a single win last year as good as Tech's against Ole Miss or Texas. Other than them, we beat nothing but dregs.

It's OK to give Tech a little credit. We have scoreboard, but they had a better season than us. I would trade them for their 2022 season in a heartbeat. And based on momentum and returning talent, I'm more bullish on their 2023, too. Hopefully this Baylor team proves me wrong.

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This isn't about us vs. Tech, it's about Tech vs. expectations. It's ridiculous to elevate Tech to Big 12 frontrunners at this point based on literally anything.

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There is no frontrunner in this year's Big 12. That's why people are talking about Tech as a darkhorse. There was an insane amount of turnover on our league's top teams last year.

Texas is probably the favorite. But only a fool would spend a lot on that stock.

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I think there is. This is the first year I have thought Texas is probably the best team. I know they've been hyped but no year since 13 or 14 have I thought they were one of the front runners. I think they are this year. OU due to their terrible schedule and K State. I would say those three with texas are a clear group.

Tech/TCU/BU are a cluster in the next tier with BU or Tech the most likely to spring up and surprise.

Surprisingly the win totals look the most accurate as far as order as I can remember. It seems easier to project bc some of the bottom teams project to be really bad football teams.

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I don't get the K-State hype. They're going to fall like a rock back to the pack IMO.

And without Robinson and Johnson, both Ewers and Texas' offensive line are going to get overexposed this year. The Horns are probably the favorite because there are no other clear frontrunners, but I'll believe that's a championship team when I see it.

There is absolutely no reason to believe Texas will finish any better than they gave any of the past 10 years, except they almost certainly won't get to Arlington or a NY6 bowl like they did in Herman's last year. That was an outlier.

As for everyone else, there is so much parity it's probably wide open. OU has legacy but Venables still needs to prove himself. TCU probably over performed last year; maybe the same is true for K State. Despite Tech's great bowl win, one cannot honestly project an entire season on that. Same for our disappointing bowl game (or season).

No one knows how it's going to end up & there are no clear favorites to get to Arlington in December.

historian said:

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There is absolutely no reason to believe Texas will finish any better than they gave any of the past 10 years, except they almost certainly won't get to Arlington or a NY6 bowl like they did in Herman's last year. That was an outlier.

As for everyone else, there is so much parity it's probably wide open. OU has legacy but Venables still needs to prove himself. TCU probably over performed last year; maybe the same is true for K State. Despite Tech's great bowl win, one cannot honestly project an entire season on that. Same for our disappointing bowl game (or season).

No one knows how it's going to end up & there are no clear favorites to get to Arlington in December.

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This is why I think Tech will likely have a pretty good year. If you look the last four or five years, the teams that have success in our league are most often the teams that bring back the most talent -- or in TCU's case last year, bring in the most experienced talent through the transfer portal.

Experience is a huge predictor of success in the Big 12 because after Texas and Oklahoma (and besides Kansas), everyone else recruits at roughly the same level.