Sorry to quote myself, but thinking through this a bit more. ACC and B10 are going to fight over ND. ND may stay independent, or B10 likely wins that battle. I think B10 might prefer Stanford to Oregon anyway b/c of academics.Robert Wilson said:I think you probably get to 14 and hold a while, unless you can finish out with AZ/OR/WA.whitetrash said:B1G and SECSECSEC jump to 16 next year.Robert Wilson said:That's the main point. Stability and survival. The SEC and B10 can't only play with each other forever. There have to be a couple other power conferences. Everyone has always talked 4 16-team conferences for some reason, and I'm not sure there is sufficient inventory for 5. B10 and sec both sitting at 14, and the ACC is at 15. We get to 14 with long term GOR locked up and Pac weakened ... we survive and maintain relevance. We add another flagship state university and another major metro market. Colorado remaining weak or mediocre is just a whatever.Redbrickbear said:
To me the only real upside is it hurts the Pac-12 and secures the future for the Big 12.
We probably end up getting Arizonia and a few other good Pac schools from this move.
I'm still trying to decide whether 14 or 16 is preferable. Add one more PAC school to get to 14 and you have somewhat of a geographical balance: 3 out west, 3 out east and 8 in the middle. Add 3 PAC schools and it gets a bit skewed.
B1G and SEC keeping a little powder dry. So is ACC.
Oregon and Washington may be concerned B1G might go with Stanford and ND to close things out. That would leave them out in the cold. May be another reason they're talking to us now.
If there are likely 64 spots on the carousel, a few P5 get left out. It was poised to be us, ISU, KSU, TCU etc. - some subset of the hateful 8. Now, it is poised to be schools like Wazzu, Oregon St, Cal...
Still very unpredictable, but back to the point - I don't care if CO comes out of the doldrums or not. This is about positioning the conference so that we all survive to play at the highest level.
All that said, neither Oregon or Washington are guaranteed a spot in the Big 10, and Oregon is probably at the most risk b/c of academic fit for the Big 10.
The best inventory available to B12 (after AZ) is OR and WA. So if you can get them with full GOR you take them and call it a day at 16.
If not, sit at 14 and wait.
I would not go past 14 for any other remaining Pac school. Utah and ASU can hang in limbo. I think Oregon may eventually just have to go to the B12, and I think Phil Knight probably likes what Yormark is doing from a marketing and crossing sports w/ culture perspective.
