morethanhecouldbear said:

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Defensive success rate doesn't mean much after a few games.

If they are still at or near the top at the end of the year, that will mean something.

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None of that matters. The bottomline is we have lost 3 of 4 and for the most part are not competitive. Now if we can get the rest of the schedule at home and the opposing team not have their QB and 2 offensive starters like Utah, we have a chance.

This is going to sound strange, but winning in 2021 may have been the worst thing for BU football. Aranda has been a failure 3 of the 4 years, but "those that really know" will use that to keep this guy and Rhodes....

morethanhecouldbear said:

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Defensive success rate doesn't mean much after a few games.

If they are still at or near the top at the end of the year, that will mean something.

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I havent seen any teams that look better than Texas so far. Maybe FSU. Georgia hasnt gotten it all together yet and LSU looks really legit like they will be in the hunt.

Big 12 stats through the first 4 games:

2023 Football - Overall Statistics - Big 12 Conference (big12sports.com)

BU is last in both TDs allowed and TDs scored.

That doesn't really jibe with yards gained on offense, and I suspect this is an area that will balance out over the course of the season. BYU and WVU probably in the opposite boat. And yes, I know there is offensive efficiency, but there is also luck.

By pretty much every statistic, BU has a bad defense, probably the worst in the B12. We're next to last in INTs. Middle of the pack in sacks. TCU playing with fire on D. Unlikely they'll be able to keep the TDs down giving up that many yards, although TCU is probably largely from the CO game so who knows.

So we'll probably see better offensive production going forward, esp with Shapen coming back, but the D likely is what it is. A bad unit that can't turn over the ball or get off the field.

GoodOleBaylorLine said:

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Big 12 stats through the first 4 games:

2023 Football - Overall Statistics - Big 12 Conference (big12sports.com)

BU is last in both TDs allowed and TDs scored.

That doesn't really jibe with yards gained on offense, and I suspect this is an area that will balance out over the course of the season. BYU and WVU probably in the opposite boat. And yes, I know there is offensive efficiency, but there is also luck.

By pretty much every statistic, BU has a bad defense, probably the worst in the B12. We're next to last in INTs. Middle of the pack in sacks. TCU playing with fire on D. Unlikely they'll be able to keep the TDs down giving up that many yards, although TCU is probably largely from the CO game so who knows.

So we'll probably see better offensive production going forward, esp with Shapen coming back, but the D likely is what it is. A bad unit that can't turn over the ball or get off the field.

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Is it scheme. Some Coordinators go simple and attacking when they don't have the horses to play the scheme they want. We seem to continue to push the scheme Aranda wants, whether or not we have the players. Hell, play a 335 or 425 shooting gaps. If you give up a big play, at least you don't tire the D out.

muddybrazos said:

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morethanhecouldbear said:

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Defensive success rate doesn't mean much after a few games.

If they are still at or near the top at the end of the year, that will mean something.

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I havent seen any teams that look better than Texas so far.

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A lot of teams can look great against bad competition. Who has ut played so far?

Rice - a perennial doormat in the AAC
Wyoming - an average MWC team
Baylor - the wheels fell off and we are likely fighting to stay out of last place this year
Alabama - worst alabama team in a while. Still much better than the 3 teams listed above

FLBear5630 said:

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GoodOleBaylorLine said:

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Big 12 stats through the first 4 games:

2023 Football - Overall Statistics - Big 12 Conference (big12sports.com)

BU is last in both TDs allowed and TDs scored.

That doesn't really jibe with yards gained on offense, and I suspect this is an area that will balance out over the course of the season. BYU and WVU probably in the opposite boat. And yes, I know there is offensive efficiency, but there is also luck.

By pretty much every statistic, BU has a bad defense, probably the worst in the B12. We're next to last in INTs. Middle of the pack in sacks. TCU playing with fire on D. Unlikely they'll be able to keep the TDs down giving up that many yards, although TCU is probably largely from the CO game so who knows.

So we'll probably see better offensive production going forward, esp with Shapen coming back, but the D likely is what it is. A bad unit that can't turn over the ball or get off the field.

---

Is it scheme. Some Coordinators go simple and attacking when they don't have the horses to play the scheme they want. We seem to continue to push the scheme Aranda wants, whether or not we have the players. Hell, play a 335 or 425 shooting gaps. If you give up a big play, at least you don't tire the D out.

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Are your going to be at the game, FLorida man? Before the season i had intended to make the 6 hr drive but now given our play i'd rather save the time & money. I'd still go if it was a 2 hour or less drive.

morethanhecouldbear said:

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muddybrazos said:

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morethanhecouldbear said:

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Defensive success rate doesn't mean much after a few games.

If they are still at or near the top at the end of the year, that will mean something.

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I havent seen any teams that look better than Texas so far.

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First few games of the year almost always give us improper measuring of where a team is. Let's look at who ut has played so far:

Rice - a perennial doormat in the AAC
Wyoming - an average MWC team
Baylor - the wheels fell off and we are likely fighting to stay out of last place this year
Alabama - worst alabama team in a while. Still much better than the 3 teams listed above

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Rice's offense is putting up huge numbers in the passing game this year. That's not a terrible team.

muddybrazos said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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GoodOleBaylorLine said:

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Big 12 stats through the first 4 games:

2023 Football - Overall Statistics - Big 12 Conference (big12sports.com)

BU is last in both TDs allowed and TDs scored.

That doesn't really jibe with yards gained on offense, and I suspect this is an area that will balance out over the course of the season. BYU and WVU probably in the opposite boat. And yes, I know there is offensive efficiency, but there is also luck.

By pretty much every statistic, BU has a bad defense, probably the worst in the B12. We're next to last in INTs. Middle of the pack in sacks. TCU playing with fire on D. Unlikely they'll be able to keep the TDs down giving up that many yards, although TCU is probably largely from the CO game so who knows.

So we'll probably see better offensive production going forward, esp with Shapen coming back, but the D likely is what it is. A bad unit that can't turn over the ball or get off the field.

---

Is it scheme. Some Coordinators go simple and attacking when they don't have the horses to play the scheme they want. We seem to continue to push the scheme Aranda wants, whether or not we have the players. Hell, play a 335 or 425 shooting gaps. If you give up a big play, at least you don't tire the D out.

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Are your going to be at the game, FLorida man? Before the season i had intended to make the 6 hr drive but now given our play i'd rather save the time & money. I'd still go if it was a 2 hour or less drive.

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No, I am going to Key West in October for 35th Wedding Anniversary. I may watch on TV, sort of scared to go to a bar...

When will we get our first TD pass to a WR?

ucf is pretty salty. they are fast and quick on both sides of the ball, albeit smallish. their qb is all over the place from great to awful.

key to baylor winning is running the ball effectively and keeping gus's offense on the sidelines. do that and the bears win. otherwise, it will be a long day for the green, methinks.

i watched your texas game last night. it looked like k-state trying to play alabama, physical mismatch.

tmcats said:

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ucf is pretty salty. they are fast and quick on both sides of the ball, albeit smallish. their qb is all over the place from great to awful.

key to baylor winning is running the ball effectively and keeping gus's offense on the sidelines. do that and the bears win. otherwise, it will be a long day for the green, methinks.

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Baylor has yet to dictate a game flow.

FLBear5630 said:

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GoodOleBaylorLine said:

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Big 12 stats through the first 4 games:

2023 Football - Overall Statistics - Big 12 Conference (big12sports.com)

BU is last in both TDs allowed and TDs scored.

That doesn't really jibe with yards gained on offense, and I suspect this is an area that will balance out over the course of the season. BYU and WVU probably in the opposite boat. And yes, I know there is offensive efficiency, but there is also luck.

By pretty much every statistic, BU has a bad defense, probably the worst in the B12. We're next to last in INTs. Middle of the pack in sacks. TCU playing with fire on D. Unlikely they'll be able to keep the TDs down giving up that many yards, although TCU is probably largely from the CO game so who knows.

So we'll probably see better offensive production going forward, esp with Shapen coming back, but the D likely is what it is. A bad unit that can't turn over the ball or get off the field.

---

Is it scheme. Some Coordinators go simple and attacking when they don't have the horses to play the scheme they want. We seem to continue to push the scheme Aranda wants, whether or not we have the players. Hell, play a 335 or 425 shooting gaps. If you give up a big play, at least you don't tire the D out.

---

I don't know. Honestly, I am surprised the defensive stats are so bad from watching the games. But Tex St was awful and UT was awful. When half your games are defensive blow outs, your stats are going to suffer I guess.

GoodOleBaylorLine said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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GoodOleBaylorLine said:

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Big 12 stats through the first 4 games:

2023 Football - Overall Statistics - Big 12 Conference (big12sports.com)

BU is last in both TDs allowed and TDs scored.

That doesn't really jibe with yards gained on offense, and I suspect this is an area that will balance out over the course of the season. BYU and WVU probably in the opposite boat. And yes, I know there is offensive efficiency, but there is also luck.

By pretty much every statistic, BU has a bad defense, probably the worst in the B12. We're next to last in INTs. Middle of the pack in sacks. TCU playing with fire on D. Unlikely they'll be able to keep the TDs down giving up that many yards, although TCU is probably largely from the CO game so who knows.

So we'll probably see better offensive production going forward, esp with Shapen coming back, but the D likely is what it is. A bad unit that can't turn over the ball or get off the field.

---

Is it scheme. Some Coordinators go simple and attacking when they don't have the horses to play the scheme they want. We seem to continue to push the scheme Aranda wants, whether or not we have the players. Hell, play a 335 or 425 shooting gaps. If you give up a big play, at least you don't tire the D out.

---

I don't know. Honestly, I am surprised the defensive stats are so bad from watching the games. But Tex St was awful and UT was awful. When half your games are defensive blow outs, your stats are going to suffer I guess.

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Even Utah. They did what they wanted to do. It was close, but it was more because of their injuries and their game strategy.

FLBear5630 said:

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GoodOleBaylorLine said:

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FLBear5630 said:

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GoodOleBaylorLine said:

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Big 12 stats through the first 4 games:

2023 Football - Overall Statistics - Big 12 Conference (big12sports.com)

BU is last in both TDs allowed and TDs scored.

That doesn't really jibe with yards gained on offense, and I suspect this is an area that will balance out over the course of the season. BYU and WVU probably in the opposite boat. And yes, I know there is offensive efficiency, but there is also luck.

By pretty much every statistic, BU has a bad defense, probably the worst in the B12. We're next to last in INTs. Middle of the pack in sacks. TCU playing with fire on D. Unlikely they'll be able to keep the TDs down giving up that many yards, although TCU is probably largely from the CO game so who knows.

So we'll probably see better offensive production going forward, esp with Shapen coming back, but the D likely is what it is. A bad unit that can't turn over the ball or get off the field.

---

Is it scheme. Some Coordinators go simple and attacking when they don't have the horses to play the scheme they want. We seem to continue to push the scheme Aranda wants, whether or not we have the players. Hell, play a 335 or 425 shooting gaps. If you give up a big play, at least you don't tire the D out.

---

I don't know. Honestly, I am surprised the defensive stats are so bad from watching the games. But Tex St was awful and UT was awful. When half your games are defensive blow outs, your stats are going to suffer I guess.

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Even Utah. They did what they wanted to do. It was close, but it was more because of their injuries and their game strategy.

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At the very end, yes.

Interestingly, YPG for Utah was about 380, which is bad. YPP was about 5.0, which is pretty good. That's a pretty good indication that the offense did the defense no favors on chewing clock and limiting possessions. Which you didn't need stats to tell you that if you watched the game.

Texas is improved but getting laughed off the field by a rival 2 years after winning the conference and finishing ranked in the top 5. Something your rival hasn't done since like 2009? That's bad. I see talent. Aranda says there's talent (I get it's what he's supposed to say but we have some dudes). We look like the Walking Dead and not the heroes but the zombies getting cut down by the heroes. We are the Godfather. In 2021 we were Vito Corleone and in 2023 we are… Vito Corleone.

LSU looks like a contender? I don't smoke but whatever it is you're smoking must be some quality stuff.

boykin_spaniel said:

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Texas is improved but getting laughed off the field by a rival 2 years after winning the conference and finishing ranked in the top 5. Something your rival hasn't done since like 2009? That's bad. I see talent. Aranda says there's talent (I get it's what he's supposed to say but we have some dudes). We look like the Walking Dead and not the heroes but the zombies getting cut down by the heroes. We are the Godfather. In 2021 we were Vito Corleone and in 2023 we are… Vito Corleone.

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There could be several reasons for that.

1 - They don't care and going through the motions, which is a coaching issue.

2- They are thinking too much and moving slow, which is scheme and coaching for not being able to fix it.

3 - Conditioning, which is a coaching issue.

Looks like all 3 to me

CBS Sports has us in a bowl game...what are they smoking?

Someone mentioned this yesterday somewhere on here, and I have decided it is true. Something changed in the spring of 2022 when we selected a new starting quarterback over our conference winning QB, GB. I am not saying the change was wrong football wise, but it changed us. There has been an unsettled vibe in my mind around the team in both 2022 and 2023. Something is off, the team seems to just go through the motions every single game. I am not talking about fake "rah rah" stuff, but genuine intensity, drive, "want to," whatever you want to call it. Our guys generally do not seem to have it, and there is something missing, not exactly sure what. I know we are in a portal world, but losing 3 QB's in a year is not good.

Everyone continues to say "Aranda won in 2021 with Rhule's players," and "we had great leaders in 2021 like Pitre, etc.", but I think it goes deeper than that. Something is now off with this program. I like Aranda, I really do, but I am worried. We need to get our mojo back. I am not even talking about wins and losses. I am not hysterical and unrealistic as so many on here are. It does no good to say "fire them all" all the time; however, I would like to see some "fight" from the team the rest of the year, whether we win another game. I am not seeing so far what I would like to see on that "team chemistry" front. I hope I do soon.

GoodOleBaylorLine said:

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Big 12 stats through the first 4 games:

2023 Football - Overall Statistics - Big 12 Conference (big12sports.com)

BU is last in both TDs allowed and TDs scored.

That doesn't really jibe with yards gained on offense, and I suspect this is an area that will balance out over the course of the season. BYU and WVU probably in the opposite boat. And yes, I know there is offensive efficiency, but there is also luck.

By pretty much every statistic, BU has a bad defense, probably the worst in the B12. We're next to last in INTs. Middle of the pack in sacks. TCU playing with fire on D. Unlikely they'll be able to keep the TDs down giving up that many yards, although TCU is probably largely from the CO game so who knows.

So we'll probably see better offensive production going forward, esp with Shapen coming back, but the D likely is what it is. A bad unit that can't turn over the ball or get off the field.

---

We are able to get yards. We are not able to score in the red zone. Unless we have a long pass or running play which ends up in the end zone, we have absolutely no shot of scoring. Cannot run in the red zone, cannot pass a jump ball to our short WR's in the end zone, so unless our TE makes a play, there is no TD.

Get yards? We were gifted 2 trips to the red zone vs Texas. We can't get no yards, we can't get no points, I'm not sure we can get our way out of a paper bag.

My guess is we score plenty against UH, Tech and Cincy. But can we get enough stops to get a win?

boykin_spaniel said:

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LSU looks like a contender? I don't smoke but whatever it is you're smoking must be some quality stuff.

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So far they look like the best of the SEC West to me. I think they take care of Ole Miss this week. Bama may get it together and win the west tho. I wouldnt be surprised if aggy pulls aggy and loses to the pigs this week either.

The West is wide open but UGA winning the SEC.

Wacoraisedbear said:

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bear2be2 said:

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I'm not expecting a win because I think we'll have a hell of a time defending Timmy McClain and their offense. But I'll be surprised (assuming Shapen's healthy) if we don't move the ball and put some points on the board.

We will have some success in the running game against this front. UCF gave up 281 yards rushing and 536 yards total to a K-State offense that hadn't rushed for even 150 yards in its previous two games against FBS competition.

And Grimes' offense looks and works completely different when we can get yardage and first downs on the ground.

Where Texas was a nightmare matchup for our offensive line, UCF is kind of the opposite. We should be able to move the ball on the ground in this game.

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My thoughts exactly we won't play an offensive or defensive line like Texas for the rest of the year shouldn't have trouble getting going

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Didn't I remember our Offensive line failing to create any gaps against Texas State, additionally they certainly didn't push around lowly LIU. What gives you confidence that they can suddenly do so against UCF?

FFA0329 said:

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Someone mentioned this yesterday somewhere on here, and I have decided it is true. Something changed in the spring of 2022 when we selected a new starting quarterback over our conference winning QB, GB. I am not saying the change was wrong football wise, but it changed us. There has been an unsettled vibe in my mind around the team in both 2022 and 2023. Something is off, the team seems to just go through the motions every single game. I am not talking about fake "rah rah" stuff, but genuine intensity, drive, "want to," whatever you want to call it. Our guys generally do not seem to have it, and there is something missing, not exactly sure what. I know we are in a portal world, but losing 3 QB's in a year is not good.

Everyone continues to say "Aranda won in 2021 with Rhule's players," and "we had great leaders in 2021 like Pitre, etc.", but I think it goes deeper than that. Something is now off with this program. I like Aranda, I really do, but I am worried. We need to get our mojo back. I am not even talking about wins and losses. I am not hysterical and unrealistic as so many on here are. It does no good to say "fire them all" all the time; however, I would like to see some "fight" from the team the rest of the year, whether we win another game. I am not seeing so far what I would like to see on that "team chemistry" front. I hope I do soon.

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Well stated. It reminded me of a pep rally at Marrs McLean after Teaff was first hired. He said (and I may not have it exactly right because I'm dealing with an ancient memory) something like this, "I can't promise you a single win, but I can promise you when we walk off the field after every game you will be proud of our team." The crowd erupted. We believed, right then, and he pretty much held up his end of the bargain for 20+ years.

That's pretty much all I ask.

Cove Dawg said:

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Wacoraisedbear said:

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bear2be2 said:

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I'm not expecting a win because I think we'll have a hell of a time defending Timmy McClain and their offense. But I'll be surprised (assuming Shapen's healthy) if we don't move the ball and put some points on the board.

We will have some success in the running game against this front. UCF gave up 281 yards rushing and 536 yards total to a K-State offense that hadn't rushed for even 150 yards in its previous two games against FBS competition.

And Grimes' offense looks and works completely different when we can get yardage and first downs on the ground.

Where Texas was a nightmare matchup for our offensive line, UCF is kind of the opposite. We should be able to move the ball on the ground in this game.

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My thoughts exactly we won't play an offensive or defensive line like Texas for the rest of the year shouldn't have trouble getting going

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Didn't I remember our Offensive line failing to create any gaps against Texas State, additionally they certainly didn't push around lowly LIU. What gives you confidence that they can suddenly do so against UCF?

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One of the core challenges with the 2023 team is that it lost a bunch of 2022 starters on the OL to transfer/graduation/etc*. While Baylor tried to remediate this by bringing in multiple OL transfers in the 2023 transfer class, the OL needs experience or "starts" in order to improve. To that end, the OL should improve throughout the season as they gain more experience.

* One OL who was expected to anchor the line this season transferred to Michigan after last season.

https://www.si.com/college/baylor/news/baylor-bears-offensive-lineman-micah-mazzccua-transfer-portal

The question naturally follows is, "What did the staff do or fail to do to cause these athletes to transfer?"

The fault is entirely with the coaching staff and their inability to keep recruits.

I'm not sure why this particular game is the litmus test and not the games where we lost to a Sun Belt school, the one where we lost to a team that had no running backs and was on their third string quarterback when we were playing at home, beating a high school team when our team looked half asleep (as our coach admitted), and then the last game where we got embarrassed by UT at home

It's fine to be supportive of the team, but this, "please guys don't quit on Aranda just give him one more chance just give him one more chance please the process is working come on guys!!!!!" posts don't make sense

To be fair, only one OL transferred and the reason was almost certainly NIL.

MommaBear said:

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I'm just hoping Aranda doesn't show the team any more Godfather (or worse) film clips to get them pumped up for this game. OMG!

I just want to see him show SOME emotion at a game. Let the team know when you're excited. Let the team know when you're upset. Watching him on the field, it feels more like he's one of my college Accounting professors describing double declining depreciation on fixed assets. I don't need Aranda to be obnoxious like Gary Patterson, but at least show a little enthusiasm. Kim Mulkey just had to give her team the stink eye look, and they went back on the court knowing that nothing less than 110% effort was acceptable. I don't see any excitement from this team, and I really think they need it.

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if he is going to show them movie clips it should be Glengarry Glen Ross.

Understood, but we did have a decommitment from OL Clements which I also suspect is NIL related.

Guitarbiscuit said:

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Understood, but we did have a decommitment from OL Clements which I also suspect is NIL related.

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That's true. He was a blue chip lineman too if I remember correctly.

No Quarterback said:

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I'm not sure why this particular game is the litmus test and not the games where we lost to a Sun Belt school, the one where we lost to a team that had no running backs and was on their third string quarterback when we were playing at home, beating a high school team when our team looked half asleep (as our coach admitted), and then the last game where we got embarrassed by UT at home

It's fine to be supportive of the team, but this, "please guys don't quit on Aranda just give him one more chance just give him one more chance please the process is working come on guys!!!!!" posts don't make sense

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Please explain what process is working? He is getting worse every year. We looked like JV vs Texas and TX St. Utah did what they wanted. Under Aranda we are a whipping boy. So what process? How is this roster better than what he inherited? What advanced do we see in 23 vs 20?