Of course it's all speculation at this point… but off seasons are for speculating I guess.

The next phase of college football realignment could be imminent. 👀🏈

MORE: https://t.co/E3vXTzBmoR pic.twitter.com/ikuNzIDWJK

— 247Sports (@247Sports) March 20, 2024

Current handicapping (%) ACC departures and where they end up based on the latest intel in conference realignment

Assumption is an extended ESPN + ACC TV contract. No extension changes the percentages.

Florida State
70% Big Ten
30% SEC

Clemson
60% SEC
40% Big Ten

North…

— Big Ten information. College football fan (@Genetics56) March 27, 2024

Whoever gave those odds isn't very bullish on Va Tech if there is a 90% chance they become an ACC remnant which I assume is what "ACC remains" means.

PartyBear said:

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Whoever gave those odds isn't very bullish on Va Tech if there is a 90% chance they become an ACC remnant which I assume is what "ACC remains" means.

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This. These assessments are worthless since they focus far too much on wins/losses to the point where they ignore other meaningful considerations. For example, UVA is a huge deal to the P2 despite its struggles on the field; in contrast, Louisville has limited value regardless as to how many ACC title games it plays in.

I am not sure that the SEC would take Clemson or Florida State. The talk has always been about North Carolina, Virginia and NC State in that order.

I could see the Big 10 taking Georgia Tech just to get into Atlanta and the Southeast. Academics would also be a plus.

It surprises me that FSU is a B10 lean...and Clemson a bit also. Those two culturally are such good SEC fits.

Likewise I see both UVA and UNC as being B10 fits.

I'd take several of the remaining schools into the Big 12 in a heart beat. This would be my grouped ranking.

Miami...big football name
Duke...big basketball name and recently reported Big 12 has interest

NC State
Va Tech these four fit the Big 12 mold
Pitt
Louisville

Ga Tech an outlier though has athletic potential...Atlanta/Georgia...bona fide academic powerhouse

Remainders: less interest
Boston College, Syracuse, Wake Forest

New ones...Cal, Stanford, SMU...not a fit

"Road trip" takes on new shine if that's the case. Beats going to L'vull IMO.

FSU not going to the B1G. Not an AAU school. In fact the AAU snubbed them in 2023 for (drumroll) USF which is sort of funny.

It's Clemson and FSU to the SEC. UNC and UVA will go to the B1G, both schools with excellent (if extremely liberal) academics and membership in the AAU. Georgia Tech and Duke might also fit the mold, GT like Perdue, Duke like NW.

UM, NCSU, VT, Pitt are excellent choices for the Big 12. Syracuse, BC and Louisville, Stanford and SMU may be SOL. Although one could argue that Syracuse and BC might give the Big 12 a toehold in the media rich northeast.

How about NO THANKS

CorsicanaBear said:

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FSU not going to the B1G. Not an AAU school. In fact the AAU snubbed them in 2023 for (drumroll) USF which is sort of funny.

It's Clemson and FSU to the SEC. UNC and UVA will go to the B1G, both schools with excellent (if extremely liberal) academics and membership in the AAU. Georgia Tech and Duke might also fit the mold, GT like Perdue, Duke like NW.

UM, NCSU, VT, Pitt are excellent choices for the Big 12. Syracuse, BC and Louisville, Stanford and SMU may be SOL. Although one could argue that Syracuse and BC might give the Big 12 a toehold in the media rich northeast.

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I would think Louisville would be one of the most likely Big 12 additions it things fragment for the ACC. BC and Wake Forrest are the two most likely to end up like Washington and Oregon state.

MC State would improve the basketball image of the Big 12

Syracuse too?

With both teams in the Final Four. It would greatly boost them if one or both won the natty

Gentle Ben said:

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It surprises me that FSU is a B10 lean...and Clemson a bit also. Those two culturally are such good SEC fits.

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Culturally maybe, but I'm not sure how Florida and South Carolina feel about major state university rivals joining them.

UNC allows the SEC to expand the footprint, and FSU allows the Big Ten to do the same.

Realitybites said:

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Gentle Ben said:

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It surprises me that FSU is a B10 lean...and Clemson a bit also. Those two culturally are such good SEC fits.

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Culturally maybe, but I'm not sure how Florida and South Carolina feel about major state university rivals joining them.

UNC allows the SEC to expand the footprint, and FSU allows the Big Ten to do the same.

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UNC is not a football school and the SEC is a football league first and foremost. A&M didnt want Texas in the SEC but we see how that turned out. If the SEC wants to add teams then Clemson and FSU are the most natural fits. They're both in the heart of the SEC and easy driving distance to rivals.

The SEC as a whole might not card what Florida & South Carolina think any more than they cared what the Aggies thought about adding Texas.

I suspect there is another PAC12 situation brewing with the ACC. The dominos are already moving. But I think the ACC survives in some form due to their recent expansion. The B12 may be able to grab a team or 2 if they play their cards right. We just have to be more attractive of a destination than staying in a weakened ACC

B12 will get four. Only misplay by B12 was Utah (and maybe ASU). Expansion should be about protecting existing members and killing off other schools from P5 status. At least one of if not two of VaTech, GaTech, Miami, NC State, Duke and Miami will be on the outside looking in. Should have been those ingrates at Utah.

Gentle Ben said:

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It surprises me that FSU is a B10 lean...and Clemson a bit also. Those two culturally are such good SEC fits.

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A "lean" according to who? Considering how consistent the B1G has been with its membership, there is no reason to suspect that they would deviate from their current standards (i.e. AAU status at entry) for either FSU or Clemson when programs that do meet their standards - UVA, UNC, Notre Dame, Stanford, GA Tech, and Miami would be available.

ACC stability definitely trending down while Big 12 is trending up, I think the BIG and SEC see the Big 12 as the place to park the best of the rest once this all shakes out.

Big10 - FOX
SEC - ESPN
Big12 - filler games for ESPN and FOX

Basically what it is now but the ACC ceases to exist or maintain a worthy slate of football games.

Fun Belt and MACtion will continue their weekday games. Mountain West will take the late night PAC slot. AAC will be filler for when the P2 and Big12 have schedule gaps or poor matchups