I'm not convinced our DL will be able to stop the run and Fritz is all about running it down your throat.

Ghostrider said:

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PawpaBear said:

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With the transfer portal additions I still think a reasonable outcome this upcoming season is 6-6. Win probability's below:

100% Wins: Tarleton
75% Wins: Air Force, BYU, TCU, Houston
50% Wins: Iowa State, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Kansas
25% Wins: Utah, Colorado,
0% Wins:

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Why do you think we have a 75% chance to beat TCU? Do you know our record against them over the past 8-10 yrs?

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That coach is now on the BU payroll.

Bobsyouruncle said:

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100% Wins: Tarleton
75% Wins: Air Force, BYU, TCU, Houston
50% Wins: Iowa State, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Kansas
25% Wins: Utah, Colorado,
0% Wins:

I'll go;
100% - Tarleton
75% - BYU
50% - Colorado, Iowa State, Air Force, Houston
25% - Kansas, Utah, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Texas Tech, TCU
0%

We'll be the underdog in every one of those 25% games, and we could be the underdog in each of the 50% games as well.

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Everyone saying "100%" win against Tarleton state. Isn't that the same sentiment fans had with Liberty and Texas State?

What if: Baylor loses to Tarleton State, or the game comes down to a last second miracle win?

Are you preparing for that? What will the general sentiment be then?

ZachTay said:

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Bobsyouruncle said:

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100% Wins: Tarleton
75% Wins: Air Force, BYU, TCU, Houston
50% Wins: Iowa State, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Kansas
25% Wins: Utah, Colorado,
0% Wins:

I'll go;
100% - Tarleton
75% - BYU
50% - Colorado, Iowa State, Air Force, Houston
25% - Kansas, Utah, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Texas Tech, TCU
0%

We'll be the underdog in every one of those 25% games, and we could be the underdog in each of the 50% games as well.

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Everyone saying "100%" win against Tarleton state. Isn't that the same sentiment fans had with Texas State?

Are you preparing for that? What will the general sentiment be then?

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Your head is turned a bit too far to the clouds.

Texas State endowment 360 million
Tarle endowment 42 million

Texas State undergrad enrollment 35K
Tarle undergrad enrollment 12K

Texas State existed for 115 years
Tarle is an Aggy bottom dweller satellite campus and has only been a 4 yr school since the 60's.

Texas State will be an R1 school by 2027, Tarle will never be.

Bobsyouruncle said:

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100% Wins: Tarleton
75% Wins: Air Force, BYU, TCU, Houston
50% Wins: Iowa State, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Kansas
25% Wins: Utah, Colorado,
0% Wins:

I'll go;
100% - Tarleton
75% - BYU
50% - Colorado, Iowa State, Air Force, Houston
25% - Kansas, Utah, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Texas Tech, TCU
0%

We'll be the underdog in every one of those 25% games, and we could be the underdog in each of the 50% games as well.

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Interesting. I would go with the below for now.

100% - Tarleton State
75% - BYU, @Houston, Air Force, @Texas Tech
50% - @Colorado, TCU
25% - @Iowa State, Oklahoma State, @Utah, @West Virginia, Kansas
0% - NA

I like yours

Like Abrcomzes prediction except for Kansas & Iowa St at 25%, we will beat both.

The money will be against us in every game except T. State, Houston and BYU. Follow the money.

oorahpa said:

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The money will be against us in every game except T. State, Houston and BYU. Follow the money.

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It certainly would be right now. That may change as the season develops. Lots of things could happen, but anyone predicting over 4-5 wins this season is high on something that ain't facts or analysis.

Before I make my prediction, after which game does Aranda's headset get handed to Patterson?

Aranda will not get fired mid season. Mack wouldn't do it and people will say there is no benefit. Person over coach.

chriscbear said:

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Like Abrcomzes prediction except for Kansas & Iowa St at 25%, we will beat both.

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That's fair, but I believe that some forget that Iowa State was 6-3 in conference play last year, only lost to one team by more than 10 points all season long (Oklahoma) last season and has insane returning production numbers for 2024. They may not play in the Big 12 title game, but, if Campbell is the coach that many believe that he is, they should at least play a role in deciding who does.

241Bear said:

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Before I make my prediction, after which game does Aranda's headset get handed to Patterson?

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None. The AD hasn't the nerve if you're thinking HC replacement

ZachTay said:

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Bobsyouruncle said:

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100% Wins: Tarleton
75% Wins: Air Force, BYU, TCU, Houston
50% Wins: Iowa State, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Kansas
25% Wins: Utah, Colorado,
0% Wins:

I'll go;
100% - Tarleton
75% - BYU
50% - Colorado, Iowa State, Air Force, Houston
25% - Kansas, Utah, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Texas Tech, TCU
0%

We'll be the underdog in every one of those 25% games, and we could be the underdog in each of the 50% games as well.

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Everyone saying "100%" win against Tarleton state. Isn't that the same sentiment fans had with Liberty and Texas State?

What if: Baylor loses to Tarleton State, or the game comes down to a last second miracle win?

Are you preparing for that? What will the general sentiment be then?

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Then we'll be bad again and will have a new coach in 2025. It's really not worth worrying about at this point.

I don't care how bad we ever get, we will NEVER lose to Tarleton State.

Bad.

Whether it is 2-10 or 5-7 bad is not even worth arguing about.

Ghostrider said:

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I don't care how bad we ever get, we will NEVER lose to Tarleton State.

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Or Texas State!! Or UNT! Or Liberty!!

I feel fairly confident that the team isn't good, but I also feel fairly confident that they are not as bad as last year.

I think we win the six games that Aranda apparently needs to keep his job IF Finn is healthy, but he is going to have to play a lot of hero ball which leads me to believe that he will not be healthy the whole season. We will also need some calls to go our way much like the 2019 Texas Tech game. We'll see

Bobsyouruncle said:

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I'm not convinced our DL will be able to stop the run and Fritz is all about running it down your throat.

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Fritz will have a terrible roster. The talent was really bad last year but will be even worse next year. Now to be fair, Fritz is a much better coach than Aranda. If he loses to any of Tarleton, BYU, or Houston he should be removed immediately.

Should we lose to UH in Fritz's first year? No.

But its absolutely on the table.

Just make sure you have plenty of booze around for this upcoming season..

CorsicanaBear said:

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This is a replay of 2007, Guy Morriss' last year. We've put together a mix and match staff in an attempt to save the HC. We've changed scheme on offense and maybe defense too. We've done everything short of hiring "The Sniper". If we go 3-9 like we did that year it will be a miracle.

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I still remember driving through Waco seeing the "there's a new guy in town" billboards and laughing at what a joke Baylor football had become. At least guy heralded in CAB.

241Bear said:

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Before I make my prediction, after which game does Aranda's headset get handed to Patterson?

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I have no clue what Spavital has been "promised" but bypassing him to Patterson, sensible as that would be, might not be in the cards.

CorsicanaBear said:

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This is a replay of 2007, Guy Morriss' last year. We've put together a mix and match staff in an attempt to save the HC. We've changed scheme on offense and maybe defense too. We've done everything short of hiring "The Sniper". If we go 3-9 like we did that year it will be a miracle.

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Oh man, I don't think we're remotely as bad as we were that year. Spav > Sniper. I attended a lot of practices that year (as an observer) and I was 100% confident we needed a complete overhaul. It was painful to watch.

And UTSA 2017.

ScrappyPaws said:

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CorsicanaBear said:

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This is a replay of 2007, Guy Morriss' last year. We've put together a mix and match staff in an attempt to save the HC. We've changed scheme on offense and maybe defense too. We've done everything short of hiring "The Sniper". If we go 3-9 like we did that year it will be a miracle.

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Oh man, I don't think we're remotely as bad as we were that year. Spav > Sniper. I attended a lot of practices that year (as an observer) and I was 100% confident we needed a complete overhaul. It was painful to watch.

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Iirc, the sniper visited Texas tech to "learn" how to run the offense.
But our team could pull a semi trailer

Bobsyouruncle said:

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Should we lose to UH in Fritz's first year? No.

But its absolutely on the table.

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No doubt but wanted a clear line in case they start giving excuses were they to lose one of those 3 games.

Byu and Houston will have a middle of the road G5 rosters next year. Aranda has gutted the talent level but no excuses to lose to any of those teams.

If this team under Aranda wins 4 games I'll be shocked.....seriously.

I have zero faith that things will get any better until Aranda is replaced. And even then, things may never get better. Baylor (Rhoades) let NIL and the open portal bury Baylor Football while he hung on to his ego (and his Aranda hire) far too long.

Rhoades and Aranda must go. A complete gut and rebuild of Baylor Football is necessary. Spavital (or Patterson) should be the next HC in order to maintain any measure of momentum there may be with the players worthy of keeping this year.

ZachTay said:

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If this team under Aranda wins 4 games I'll be shocked.....seriously.

I have zero faith that things will get any better until Aranda is replaced. And even then, things may never get better. Baylor (Rhoades) let NIL and the open portal bury Baylor Football while he hung on to his ego (and his Aranda hire) far too long.

Rhoades and Aranda must go. A complete gut and rebuild of Baylor Football is necessary. Spavital (or Patterson) should be the next HC in order to maintain any measure of momentum there may be with the players worthy of keeping this year.

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I'm pretty much with you except for replacing Aranda with Spavital or Patterson. Those would be upgrades from Aranda, but I feel like we could do better. It's a long shot, but make the dude from UTSA tell us no. Kinne from Texas State is also intriguing depending on how they do this year.

There may not be anyone less capable of running a football program in the NIL/transfer era than Gary Patterson. Players hate that guy.