Daveisabovereproach said:

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ZachTay said:

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If this team under Aranda wins 4 games I'll be shocked.....seriously.

I have zero faith that things will get any better until Aranda is replaced. And even then, things may never get better. Baylor (Rhoades) let NIL and the open portal bury Baylor Football while he hung on to his ego (and his Aranda hire) far too long.

Rhoades and Aranda must go. A complete gut and rebuild of Baylor Football is necessary. Spavital (or Patterson) should be the next HC in order to maintain any measure of momentum there may be with the players worthy of keeping this year.

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I'm pretty much with you except for replacing Aranda with Spavital or Patterson. Those would be upgrades from Aranda, but I feel like we could do better. It's a long shot, but make the dude from UTSA tell us no. Kinne from Texas State is also intriguing depending on how they do this year.

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I'll go with you on Traylor or Kinne. As long as something changes.

And, Baylor needs to replace Rhoades at the same time because Baylor needs to know its current place in the game and NOT give the next head coach $3M-$4M a year because "that's what top programs do". I have zero faith that Rhoades would not make that same financial mistake for Baylor, with his massively misled ego in play.

Either of those head coaches you mention could be hired at half of what we are paying Aranda, with giving them huge upside bonuses and future contracts for proven RESULTS and PERFORMANCE.

I'm kinda glad we didn't go into Traylor this year

1. I wanna see how this Dave Aranda experiment pans out now that we are using NIL correctly

2. My only question mark regarding Traylor was that star QB he's had forever. I'm interested to see how he does with out the kid now

Bobsyouruncle said:

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LOL pay Traylor half of 4 million? He's making more than that at UTSA. You're living in a fantasy world. If you want to play with the big boys it's going to cost you.

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That's exactly my point. Baylor is not playing with the big boys these days. YOU'RE living in a fantasy world if you think that they are.

I simply said that I would go with him on the thought. But you keep hate'n. Sic'em

Bobsyouruncle said:

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LOL pay Traylor half of 4 million? He's making more than that at UTSA. You're living in a fantasy world. If you want to play with the big boys it's going to cost you.

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This. Traylor makes $2.8M/yr now with a contract set to expire in 2031, so it would probably cost a contract of at ~$4M/yr for a initial period of at least 6 years for him to make a move. Those amounts are not counting the coaching staff pool of money he would need for his assistant coaches or the buyout money for all of the fired coaches. The idea that he would take a pay cut to come to Baylor is a bit silly.

ZachTay said:

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Bobsyouruncle said:

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LOL pay Traylor half of 4 million? He's making more than that at UTSA. You're living in a fantasy world. If you want to play with the big boys it's going to cost you.

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That's exactly my point. Baylor is not playing with the big boys these days. YOU'RE living in a fantasy world if you think that they are.

I simply said that I would go with him on the thought. But you keep hate'n. Sic'em

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The actual big boys are paying their coaches twice (or more) what we pay Aranda. We're paying a competitive Big 12 salary. It's silly to suggest we should offer our next coach less because Dave Aranda didn't work out.

In coaching, like everything else, you get what you pay for.

I haven't looked closely at the roster in awhile, but it seems like the team is going to be kind of a random mish mash of transfers, many of whom have one year of eligibility left. I don't know if this is a one year thing or if that's going to be the paradigm with the transfer portal moving forward

bear2be2 said:

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ZachTay said:

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Bobsyouruncle said:

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100% Wins: Tarleton
75% Wins: Air Force, BYU, TCU, Houston
50% Wins: Iowa State, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Kansas
25% Wins: Utah, Colorado,
0% Wins:

I'll go;
100% - Tarleton
75% - BYU
50% - Colorado, Iowa State, Air Force, Houston
25% - Kansas, Utah, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Texas Tech, TCU
0%

We'll be the underdog in every one of those 25% games, and we could be the underdog in each of the 50% games as well.

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Everyone saying "100%" win against Tarleton state. Isn't that the same sentiment fans had with Liberty and Texas State?

What if: Baylor loses to Tarleton State, or the game comes down to a last second miracle win?

Are you preparing for that? What will the general sentiment be then?

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Then we'll be bad again and will have a new coach in 2025. It's really not worth worrying about at this point.

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If BU loses or goes down to the wire with Tarleton St, McLane will be an empty tomb for the balance of the season.

BBWCBear said:

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bear2be2 said:

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ZachTay said:

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Bobsyouruncle said:

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100% Wins: Tarleton
75% Wins: Air Force, BYU, TCU, Houston
50% Wins: Iowa State, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Kansas
25% Wins: Utah, Colorado,
0% Wins:

I'll go;
100% - Tarleton
75% - BYU
50% - Colorado, Iowa State, Air Force, Houston
25% - Kansas, Utah, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Texas Tech, TCU
0%

We'll be the underdog in every one of those 25% games, and we could be the underdog in each of the 50% games as well.

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Everyone saying "100%" win against Tarleton state. Isn't that the same sentiment fans had with Liberty and Texas State?

What if: Baylor loses to Tarleton State, or the game comes down to a last second miracle win?

Are you preparing for that? What will the general sentiment be then?

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Then we'll be bad again and will have a new coach in 2025. It's really not worth worrying about at this point.

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If BU loses or goes down to the wire with Tarleton St, McLane will be an empty tomb for the balance of the season.

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And deservedly so. I don't think we'll lose that game, though.

Unfortunately, the same is true of the Air Force game, and we could definitely lose that one.

This is a horrible time for us to be playing a service academy. AF has been the most stable of the three service academies and I do not feel good about stopping their run game, especially early in the season with late portal adds being counted on for significant reps.

Bobsyouruncle said:

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This is a horrible time for us to be playing a service academy. AF has been the most stable of the three service academies and I do not feel good about stopping their run game, especially early in the season with late portal adds being counted on for significant reps.

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It's also a bad time in the season to play them. We will be coming off a very tough Utah game where we will be significant underdogs and will have a very tough game, win or lose. The next week, we quickly have to bounce back against a weird scheme vs. Air Force while also looking ahead to the first game of conference play against Colorado which will be their homecoming game, so they will be jacked to play us. 1-3 is definitely not out of the question through week four

PawpaBear said:

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With the transfer portal additions I still think a reasonable outcome this upcoming season is 6-6. Win probability's below:

100% Wins: Tarleton
75% Wins: Air Force, BYU, TCU, Houston
50% Wins: Iowa State, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Kansas
25% Wins: Utah, Colorado,
0% Wins:

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as an outsider, i'd would add cu to the 50% line along with tcu.

OsoCoreyell said:

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Ghostrider said:

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I don't care how bad we ever get, we will NEVER lose to Tarleton State.

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Or Texas State!! Or UNT! Or Liberty!!

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this would be even worse.

Ursus Americanus said:

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ZachTay said:

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Bobsyouruncle said:

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LOL pay Traylor half of 4 million? He's making more than that at UTSA. You're living in a fantasy world. If you want to play with the big boys it's going to cost you.

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That's exactly my point. Baylor is not playing with the big boys these days. YOU'RE living in a fantasy world if you think that they are.

I simply said that I would go with him on the thought. But you keep hate'n. Sic'em

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If Baylor does not get their football program back on track in the next three seasons under any coach they are looking at a lot of lost revenue ln the short term and potentially long term because the realignment musical chairs are not done.

And with Baylor raising tuition now to top $51k with an estimated $79k plus price tag per year in total expenses to send a kid to Baylor, you can bet alums are going to tune out if there aren't worthwhile sports to root for.

An overpriced school with uncompetitive revenue sports is a non starter for having any future.

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Yup. See: Rice

Except Rice is a quasi Ivy League

Well, this thread turned in to a spiral into the pit of despair. I'll hold off on such a dismal outlook till I see the actual product on the field this year. I see way too many positive changes not to be at least a little hopeful.

Agree. Pretty much rebuilt the roster with portal guys. Gotta believe if Tx St had a portal dependent roster last year and faired well, why not Baylor?

ImABearToo said:

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Agree. Pretty much rebuilt the roster with portal guys. Gotta believe if Tx St had a portal dependent roster last year and faired well, why not Baylor?

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Because Texas state played a sunbelt conference schedule with several P5 players. Baylor will play a P5 schedule with several G5 transfers. I am a little more optimistic than I was, but not by much.

BUATX2000 said:

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ImABearToo said:

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Agree. Pretty much rebuilt the roster with portal guys. Gotta believe if Tx St had a portal dependent roster last year and faired well, why not Baylor?

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Because Texas state played a sunbelt conference schedule with several P5 players. Baylor will play a P5 schedule with several G5 transfers. I am a little more optimistic than I was, but not by much.

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The vast majority of the players in the Big 12 are 3*s, and, given that the same is true for G5's, there really isn't too much of a difference between the two (controlling for experience and development). We aren't talking about the SEC vs. the Big 12 or a G5 here, and plus the legacy Big 12 teams generally find new and creative ways to embarrass themselves in regular season out of conference games.

BUATX2000 said:

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ImABearToo said:

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Agree. Pretty much rebuilt the roster with portal guys. Gotta believe if Tx St had a portal dependent roster last year and faired well, why not Baylor?

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Because Texas state played a sunbelt conference schedule with several P5 players. Baylor will play a P5 schedule with several G5 transfers. I am a little more optimistic than I was, but not by much.

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I'm not going to jump on the hype train or anything but here's where I'm at...

College football might be moving to the pay-to-play pro model but it's still a game played by 18-23 year old young men. It's emotional and momentum matters, especially in a league with as much parity as the Big 12. Had we beaten TxSt, would we have beaten Utah the next weekend? It's pure speculation obviously but had we been ready for that opening day I think the season could have been remarkably different. If we can stomp Tarleton and be competitive at Utah, I think the team will have a much better mindset going in to the AF and CU games, both of which are very winnable games if we've improved at all.

So, momentum matters but obviously it's not the end all. We still needed to address major weaknesses, specifically Offensive philosophy, OL, and Defensive play calling. I could list a lot more but IMHO those three things made us look and perform worse than the talent we actually had on the field.

So, we bring in Spav. No, he's not the second coming of CAB but he does run a system that can be successful without needing Alabama's roster. His system can be much more effective with a bigger line and a dynamic QB. We acquired both. Obviously I could be completely wrong but I think we'll see dramatic improvement on the offensive side of the ball. We have real talent in the backfield and decent receivers who will look even better with Spav and Finn.

Will we be able to stop anyone? I have no idea but I do know scoring more points will help.

If we look less than dominant against Tarleton and get smoked at Utah, then I'll know I was wrong. For now though, I'm really hopeful we're going to be competitive in nearly every game and win 6-7 of them. That will build a little momentum amongst the players and fans, maybe that translates to landing more talent and a big step up in 2025. We don't need to emerge from the wilderness of the KS or GuyMo eras here.

GuyMo is getting shorted. He started with nothing and hired a real football staff. He was promised an on campus practice facility which was never delivered. That was a huge recruiting deal. Even not given the right support he organized the football program. With Bob Sloan there was no trust. Our coaching staff knew not to pass on any opportunities 2 years before the firing.

Kevin Steele was hopeless from the start