Again, why is going 0.500 seen as such a prestigious thing? If you had to win seven games to be bowl eligible, no one would be talking about six wins. If six wins is becoming acceptable for our program, I would honestly rather see us go to a smaller conference where we can actually compete at a high level
honest expectations for football 24
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Last: 5 mo ago by Ursus Americanus
I don't believe that anyone is saying, or thinks, 6 wins is "prestigious". But that is the number that CFB has decided is required for bowl eligibility. Given where Baylor was last year (getting 'lucky' to win 3), if they were to get 6 wins this year it would show significant improvement, achieve the minimal goal of playing in a bowl game, and get some positive momentum for the program headed to 2025. In the big picture winning 6 games is not a yearly goal for the program, but after last season it has become a "goal" kinda by default.
I mean as a baylor fan you got to be alittle realistic, we are historically a .500 program. It's gonna be 6 and 7 win seasons with maybe a break out 10 or 11 win season occasionally.
Had the BOR not blown up the program, I wonder if we'd have continued to be that .500 Baylor program? CAB would have lost assistant coaches along the way and missed out on some prospects. NIL and the portal would have had their impact. But I wonder if Art could have kept us among the best through it all? Same for Rhule, could he have kept the momentum after 2019? Obvious CDA wasn't able to do so after 2021. Heck, we ain't even .500 these days.
“Life is short, eat desert first!”
We expect to compete for championships. This is not Kevin Steel football.
ImABearToo said:
Had the BOR not blown up the program, I wonder if we'd have continued to be that .500 Baylor program? CAB would have lost assistant coaches along the way and missed out on some prospects. NIL and the portal would have had their impact. But I wonder if Art could have kept us among the best through it all? Same for Rhule, could he have kept the momentum after 2019? Obvious CDA wasn't able to do so after 2021. Heck, we ain't even .500 these days.
That's doubtful based on what's happened with all of the other coaches from that era. Look at articles publishing the preseason top 25 coaches going into the 2015 season and look at each of those coaches now.
https://syndication.bleacherreport.com/amp/2395189-ranking-the-top-25-college-football-coaches-heading-into-2015.amp.html
I tend to disagree. Of course it's all (wish full) speculation by us at this point, but If CAB had remained in place Baylor Football would have probably had a solid string of Top 10, nationally, finishes leading up to NIL. A nationally known premier program. Also, most likely a good number of Big XII championships, and a Playoff appearance or 3 or 4. By far, the unquestioned most successful football program in Baylor history.Aberzombie1892 said:ImABearToo said:
Had the BOR not blown up the program, I wonder if we'd have continued to be that .500 Baylor program? CAB would have lost assistant coaches along the way and missed out on some prospects. NIL and the portal would have had their impact. But I wonder if Art could have kept us among the best through it all? Same for Rhule, could he have kept the momentum after 2019? Obvious CDA wasn't able to do so after 2021. Heck, we ain't even .500 these days.
That's doubtful based on what's happened with all of the other coaches from that era. Look at articles publishing the preseason top 25 coaches going into the 2015 season and look at each of those coaches now.
https://syndication.bleacherreport.com/amp/2395189-ranking-the-top-25-college-football-coaches-heading-into-2015.amp.html
When NIL hit, Briles would probably have had his program positioned to get whatever he needed to remain competitive from fans, alumni, benefactors, administration, and the surrounding business leaders.
The program, and all of us as fans, would look and act completely different today.
Agree. Today it feels like "us versus them" regarding the university and the fans. I think we would have been unified across the board on how to keep winning.
“Life is short, eat desert first!”
MrGolfguy said:
I don't believe that anyone is saying, or thinks, 6 wins is "prestigious". But that is the number that CFB has decided is required for bowl eligibility. Given where Baylor was last year (getting 'lucky' to win 3), if they were to get 6 wins this year it would show significant improvement, achieve the minimal goal of playing in a bowl game, and get some positive momentum for the program headed to 2025. In the big picture winning 6 games is not a yearly goal for the program, but after last season it has become a "goal" kinda by default.
Maybe prestigious wasn't the right word. My disagreement is with the thought that five wins this season is a fireable offense, but one extra win to get us to six wins is "hooray we finally have momentum!!"
I just don't want us to get caught in this paradigm where we are expecting Aranda to prove that he should be our coach every year and the powers that be are satisfied with six wins becoming par. I'm already starting to see that happen. When every single year with your head coach becomes a prove it year, you know he isn't the guy
Did you give the commencement address at Ohio State??????chriscbear said:
We expect to compete for championships. This is not Kevin Steel football.
Aranda clearly was not the right guy, nor a D-I P5 head coach, two seasons ago. Our focus and pitchforks should be pointed at Rhoades. Rhoades is the reason Baylor Football is in the state (both financially and performance wise) it is in today.Daveisabovereproach said:MrGolfguy said:
I don't believe that anyone is saying, or thinks, 6 wins is "prestigious". But that is the number that CFB has decided is required for bowl eligibility. Given where Baylor was last year (getting 'lucky' to win 3), if they were to get 6 wins this year it would show significant improvement, achieve the minimal goal of playing in a bowl game, and get some positive momentum for the program headed to 2025. In the big picture winning 6 games is not a yearly goal for the program, but after last season it has become a "goal" kinda by default.
Maybe prestigious wasn't the right word. My disagreement is with the thought that five wins this season is a fireable offense, but one extra win to get us to six wins is "hooray we finally have momentum!!"
I just don't want us to get caught in this paradigm where we are expecting Aranda to prove that he should be our coach every year and the powers that be are satisfied with six wins becoming par. I'm already starting to see that happen. When every single year with your head coach becomes a prove it year, you know he isn't the guy
Sic'em
datboiquadzilla said:
If we do not make a bowl game, Aranda is gone.
No. If we make it and lose, he's gone. Need I remind you about Air Force???
ZachTay said:Aranda clearly was not the right guy, nor a D-I P5 head coach, two seasons ago. Our focus and pitchforks should be pointed at Rhoades. Rhoades is the reason Baylor Football is in the state (both financially and performance wise) it is in today.Daveisabovereproach said:MrGolfguy said:
I don't believe that anyone is saying, or thinks, 6 wins is "prestigious". But that is the number that CFB has decided is required for bowl eligibility. Given where Baylor was last year (getting 'lucky' to win 3), if they were to get 6 wins this year it would show significant improvement, achieve the minimal goal of playing in a bowl game, and get some positive momentum for the program headed to 2025. In the big picture winning 6 games is not a yearly goal for the program, but after last season it has become a "goal" kinda by default.
Maybe prestigious wasn't the right word. My disagreement is with the thought that five wins this season is a fireable offense, but one extra win to get us to six wins is "hooray we finally have momentum!!"
I just don't want us to get caught in this paradigm where we are expecting Aranda to prove that he should be our coach every year and the powers that be are satisfied with six wins becoming par. I'm already starting to see that happen. When every single year with your head coach becomes a prove it year, you know he isn't the guy
Sic'em
I tend to agree. Going balls to the wall in his building campaign and tying up so much donor money in facilities while thumbing his nose at NIL for the first couple years of its existence was not a smart tactic. I know he and his supporters try to attribute the basketball natty to him, but things have holistically been pretty meh under his watch aside from that eight month span from August 2021 to March 2022.
If Mack could pull a power move and hire someone like Traylor from UTSA, I would forgive him. But he should have to do something like that to save his job assuming this football season doesn't go well (7 wins MINIMUM)
Traylor has already said no to TT and UH. Not sure why he'd suddenly jump ship for us.
Daveisabovereproach said:MrGolfguy said:
I don't believe that anyone is saying, or thinks, 6 wins is "prestigious". But that is the number that CFB has decided is required for bowl eligibility. Given where Baylor was last year (getting 'lucky' to win 3), if they were to get 6 wins this year it would show significant improvement, achieve the minimal goal of playing in a bowl game, and get some positive momentum for the program headed to 2025. In the big picture winning 6 games is not a yearly goal for the program, but after last season it has become a "goal" kinda by default.
Maybe prestigious wasn't the right word. My disagreement is with the thought that five wins this season is a fireable offense, but one extra win to get us to six wins is "hooray we finally have momentum!!"
I just don't want us to get caught in this paradigm where we are expecting Aranda to prove that he should be our coach every year and the powers that be are satisfied with six wins becoming par. I'm already starting to see that happen. When every single year with your head coach becomes a prove it year, you know he isn't the guy
Because that one extra win gets you a multimillion dollar paycheck and an extra month of live practice. Someone could argue 5 wins shows improvement and technically they'd be right but it's not good enough. It's a losing season without a bowl payout and nearly half of the fbs teams will get to practice an extra month while you sit at home and twiddle your thumbs. 6 wins has a tangible benefit.
I'm not saying 6 wins is the minimum moving forward. 6 wins this season is a minimum. You get a few $, an extra month of practice and I'm going to expect 8-9 the next year. If either doesn't happen I'm hoping someone can throw the bank at Traylor.
I expect BU will play 12 football games this season, possibly 13.
That extra month of practice has zero benefit with NIL.
Daveisabovereproach said:
Again, why is going 0.500 seen as such a prestigious thing? If you had to win seven games to be bowl eligible, no one would be talking about six wins. If six wins is becoming acceptable for our program, I would honestly rather see us go to a smaller conference where we can actually compete at a high level
It's Baylor we built a statue of a coach that had an all time record around 500 because we sucked so much before him. Expectations were set then for our fanbase
The battle is not yours, but God's.
2 Chronicles 20:15
2 Chronicles 20:15
br53 said:Daveisabovereproach said:
Again, why is going 0.500 seen as such a prestigious thing? If you had to win seven games to be bowl eligible, no one would be talking about six wins. If six wins is becoming acceptable for our program, I would honestly rather see us go to a smaller conference where we can actually compete at a high level
It's Baylor we built a statue of a coach that had an all time record around 500 because we sucked so much before him. Expectations were set then for our fanbase
His statue isn't there because of his W-L record. It's there because of the existing university mindset he had to overcome; the manner in which he did so; the respect he earned for BU because of his efforts; and the character and integrity of the man revealed thru it all.
BU had the opportunity to repeat the "statue" business by building a football program that would justify a W-L based statue by establishing a program which would compete with anyone. The failure of the admin and AD to oversee and manage said program destroyed that opportunity, and with it, the chance to thrive in any realignment scheme to follow. Not much justification now and going forward to consider "statues" (unless it is John Westbrook).
this thread reminds me of wvu's before last season happened.
Well, like every year I am pumped for football and have high expectations!!!!
drahthaar said:br53 said:Daveisabovereproach said:
Again, why is going 0.500 seen as such a prestigious thing? If you had to win seven games to be bowl eligible, no one would be talking about six wins. If six wins is becoming acceptable for our program, I would honestly rather see us go to a smaller conference where we can actually compete at a high level
It's Baylor we built a statue of a coach that had an all time record around 500 because we sucked so much before him. Expectations were set then for our fanbase
His statue isn't there because of his W-L record. It's there because of the existing university mindset he had to overcome; the manner in which he did so; the respect he earned for BU because of his efforts; and the character and integrity of the man revealed thru it all.
BU had the opportunity to repeat the "statue" business by building a football program that would justify a W-L based statue by establishing a program which would compete with anyone. The failure of the admin and AD to oversee and manage said program destroyed that opportunity, and with it, the chance to thrive in any realignment scheme to follow. Not much justification now and going forward to consider "statues" (unless it is John Westbrook).
That is why I said because we sucked so much before him.
The battle is not yours, but God's.
2 Chronicles 20:15
2 Chronicles 20:15
I kinda sense a 2018 season ahead. That year we beat Tech in Waco to clinch bowl eligibility and then 2019 was a great year. If CDA & Co don't have us at 4-1 or 3-2 going into week 6, the drums will be deafening.
“Life is short, eat desert first!”
That's a good point.Ghostrider said:
That extra month of practice has zero benefit with NIL.
TBH even before NIL and the portal, I always questioned the idea that those extra practices were a benefit for the following season.
Ghostrider said:
That extra month of practice has zero benefit with NIL.
Zero is a big number
With the transfer portal additions I still think a reasonable outcome this upcoming season is 6-6. Win probability's below:
100% Wins: Tarleton
75% Wins: Air Force, BYU, TCU, Houston
50% Wins: Iowa State, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Kansas
25% Wins: Utah, Colorado,
0% Wins:
100% Wins: Tarleton
75% Wins: Air Force, BYU, TCU, Houston
50% Wins: Iowa State, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Kansas
25% Wins: Utah, Colorado,
0% Wins:
Why do you think we have a 75% chance to beat TCU? Do you know our record against them over the past 8-10 yrs?PawpaBear said:
With the transfer portal additions I still think a reasonable outcome this upcoming season is 6-6. Win probability's below:
100% Wins: Tarleton
75% Wins: Air Force, BYU, TCU, Houston
50% Wins: Iowa State, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Kansas
25% Wins: Utah, Colorado,
0% Wins:
This is my exact reason… we are due to beat them. If the house has won the last 100 games I would bet to win soon. Look at 2022… TCU had a lot go there way to beat us in the last few seconds of the game. We are due
we're gonna show up and compete.
might even win our fair share!
baylor football - still here in 2024!
- kkm
might even win our fair share!
baylor football - still here in 2024!
- kkm
pro ecclesia, pro javelina
7 to 9 wins easy.
chriscbear said:
7 to 9 wins easy.
pro ecclesia, pro javelina
100% Wins: Tarleton
75% Wins: Air Force, BYU, TCU, Houston
50% Wins: Iowa State, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Kansas
25% Wins: Utah, Colorado,
0% Wins:
I'll go;
100% - Tarleton
75% - BYU
50% - Colorado, Iowa State, Air Force, Houston
25% - Kansas, Utah, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Texas Tech, TCU
0%
We'll be the underdog in every one of those 25% games, and we could be the underdog in each of the 50% games as well.
75% Wins: Air Force, BYU, TCU, Houston
50% Wins: Iowa State, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Kansas
25% Wins: Utah, Colorado,
0% Wins:
I'll go;
100% - Tarleton
75% - BYU
50% - Colorado, Iowa State, Air Force, Houston
25% - Kansas, Utah, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Texas Tech, TCU
0%
We'll be the underdog in every one of those 25% games, and we could be the underdog in each of the 50% games as well.
PawpaBear said:
This is my exact reason… we are due to beat them. If the house has won the last 100 games I would bet to win soon. Look at 2022… TCU had a lot go there way to beat us in the last few seconds of the game. We are due
This thinking is 100% why Vegas exists.
We have 1 guaranteed win in Tar State. We should beat UH soundly. Other than that, I wouldn't bet straight up on any other game. Too many unknowns at this point.
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