4-8 or less: Then the For Sale sign pops up in the front yard.

Bandito said:

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Karab said:

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Daveisabovereproach said:

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If Jalon Daniels is healthy, Kansas will likely be favored - perhaps significantly. No way I could pencil that in as a win

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Yeah, no kidding. My understanding is KU has a veteran team this year.

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....and one heck of a coach.

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And a wide zone offense?

Fre3dombear said:

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Bandito said:

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Karab said:

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Daveisabovereproach said:

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If Jalon Daniels is healthy, Kansas will likely be favored - perhaps significantly. No way I could pencil that in as a win

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Yeah, no kidding. My understanding is KU has a veteran team this year.

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....and one heck of a coach.

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And a wide zone offense?

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And maybe the people to execute it?

Bearfan21 said:

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Saying bowl eligibility is out of the question is a clown take. Last year's team could've won the UH, WVU, and Utah games had it flipped the other way. That would've been 6-6. We won't be worse than last year

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LMAO

Every team in the country absolutely "could have" won each game they played.

You're the clown in this room.......

Sic'em

BUATX2000 said:

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Bearfan21 said:

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Saying bowl eligibility is out of the question is a clown take. Last year's team could've won the UH, WVU, and Utah games had it flipped the other way. That would've been 6-6. We won't be worse than last year

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But also shouldn't have won UCF and Cincy, so….

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Yep, playing the flipping game doesn't work so well with last years team. Easily a couple of games against bad teams that we should not have won.

Bearfan21 said:

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Saying bowl eligibility is out of the question is a clown take. Last year's team could've won the UH, WVU, and Utah games had it flipped the other way. That would've been 6-6. We won't be worse than last year

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I wonder why we almost won vs.Utah? Was a key player missing?

I think they were down to their 3rd string QB or something

Hey I'd be a billionaire if a couple investments had just 'flipped my way'. Like investing in dogecoin. Or inheriting a billion from a rich relative or something

Fre3dombear said:

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Bandito said:

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Karab said:

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Daveisabovereproach said:

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If Jalon Daniels is healthy, Kansas will likely be favored - perhaps significantly. No way I could pencil that in as a win

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Yeah, no kidding. My understanding is KU has a veteran team this year.

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....and one heck of a coach.

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And a wide zone offense?

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Good point.

Bandito said:

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monsterbear61 said:

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I just read The Athletics article on Mack's rationale behind keeping Aranda. It sounds like the coach has a plan versus merely getting a stay of execution. Let's hope the plan really works. Ditching the 'person over player' philosophy in recruiting is significant. I think Briles must be chortling over that turnaround.

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This guy's had more plans than Aflac. Most folks don't get 5 yrs of on the job training, multiple resets, and passing the buck to their underlings.

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This is a completely fair point and why I was never particularly jazzed about hiring an outside coordinator.

I sincerely hope Aranda gets the ship righted this season. I'm pulling hard for him because I like what he stands for. But power conference program's should let first-time head coaches learn these lessons and do their experimenting at lower levels. The stakes are too high to spend five years waiting on your coach to figure out the most basic aspects of his job.

12-0

Robert Wilson said:

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bear2be2 said:

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Bandito said:

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monsterbear61 said:

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I just read The Athletics article on Mack's rationale behind keeping Aranda. It sounds like the coach has a plan versus merely getting a stay of execution. Let's hope the plan really works. Ditching the 'person over player' philosophy in recruiting is significant. I think Briles must be chortling over that turnaround.

---

This guy's had more plans than Aflac. Most folks don't get 5 yrs of on the job training, multiple resets, and passing the buck to their underlings.

---

This is a completely fair point and why I was never particularly jazzed about hiring an outside coordinator.

I sincerely hope Aranda gets the ship righted this season. I'm pulling hard for him because I like what he stands for. But power conference program's should let first-time head coaches learn these lessons and do their experimenting at lower levels. The stakes are too high to spend five years waiting on your coach to figure out the most basic aspects of his job.

---

I like Aranda and really hoped he would be a good fit. 2021 was a blast. I was at most of those games, including B12 championship and the Sugar Bowl. Great stuff. Listening to the guy talk defensive scheme and technique is a joy. But it's since become clear he inherited a great hand on defense and got a little lucky on a one-trick pony offensive scheme, and the trick ran out.

Being on OC #3 and practically DC #3 (himself) going into year 5 is abysmal. That staff turns over more often than Lake Waco. He fired his old mentor DC and replaced him with a guy who put up one of the worst defenses in the country.

The transfer portal and insta-transfer are one thing. I get it. That caught a lot of people with their pants down, and even moreso a first-time HC at a school like Baylor. We are basically the CFB equivalent of a small market MLB team, so it's not a surprise these changes would be a bigger shock to our system. But Aranda's failure to attract / manage / maintain a stable staff of coaches after spending this many years in the business makes me think he just does not have the leadership, organizational, and inter-personal qualities required for this job.

---

This is the most reasonable take I've yet seen for Aranda to have been smoked out after 2023 (which on this board I realize isn't saying much, but still).

I think we could've easily survived as a 6+ win team last year with the offensive system and talent we had, and our production on that side was commensurate (and even better than in some cases) 2021 and 2022. Fedora was a terrible idea from the jump, but in a certain scenario Grimes is still here and his offense is still grinding out wins.

But I cannot for the life of me figure out what he's been doing defensively, which is the most (if you'll excuse the wording) indefensible piece of his tenure considering his background. For me, it's why his leadership is ultimately so deeply in question. The way the entire Roberts situation came to a head was so off, and the Powledge hire might've been the worst coordinator hire any P5 team made last offseason. His ineptitude showed clearly that he had never been a DC before - or even called defensive plays. How Aranda saw him and thought he was ready is almost fireable on its own merits.

I'm kind of agnostic on the decision to bring him back. I can see both sides. But it is inarguable that he really has no idea what he's doing in terms of offensive schematic identity, and defensively he's just completely whiffed on both personality (Roberts) and experience (Powledge). Offensively he went from a multiple milquetoast spread to a horizontal run-to-pass pro system now back to a different version of the spread we initially tried. Defensively he has an understanding that the 4-2-5 is our set, but he's now fired a guy who doesn't fit his personnel vision and a guy who literally couldn't call plays.

Leipold is a sharp guy. There's no way that he wants to scrap what Kotelnicki was doing last year on offense. KU's offense was evil. I suspect Grimes will be expected to essentially replicate what Kotelnicki was doing. I doubt they'll be as good as last year on offense but they'll almost certainly be a lot better than we were last year.

Robert Wilson said:

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bear2be2 said:

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Bandito said:

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monsterbear61 said:

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I just read The Athletics article on Mack's rationale behind keeping Aranda. It sounds like the coach has a plan versus merely getting a stay of execution. Let's hope the plan really works. Ditching the 'person over player' philosophy in recruiting is significant. I think Briles must be chortling over that turnaround.

---

This guy's had more plans than Aflac. Most folks don't get 5 yrs of on the job training, multiple resets, and passing the buck to their underlings.

---

This is a completely fair point and why I was never particularly jazzed about hiring an outside coordinator.

I sincerely hope Aranda gets the ship righted this season. I'm pulling hard for him because I like what he stands for. But power conference program's should let first-time head coaches learn these lessons and do their experimenting at lower levels. The stakes are too high to spend five years waiting on your coach to figure out the most basic aspects of his job.

---

I like Aranda and really hoped he would be a good fit. 2021 was a blast. I was at most of those games, including B12 championship and the Sugar Bowl. Great stuff. Listening to the guy talk defensive scheme and technique is a joy. But it's since become clear he inherited a great hand on defense and got a little lucky on a one-trick pony offensive scheme, and the trick ran out.

Being on OC #3 and practically DC #3 (himself) going into year 5 is abysmal. That staff turns over more often than Lake Waco. He fired his old mentor DC and replaced him with a guy who put up one of the worst defenses in the country.

The transfer portal and insta-transfer are one thing. I get it. That caught a lot of people with their pants down, and even moreso a first-time HC at a school like Baylor. We are basically the CFB equivalent of a small market MLB team, so it's not a surprise these changes would be a bigger shock to our system. But Aranda's failure to attract / manage / maintain a stable staff of coaches after spending this many years in the business makes me think he just does not have the leadership, organizational, and inter-personal qualities required for this job.

---

I think this is a fair concern. But he's on his last strike. Either this iteration of the staff gets things fixed, or we're head coach shopping in the offseason.

That's why I'm done worrying about it at this point. I've spent the last two years laying out my concerns with Aranda, and I'm not particularly confident in the product we'll field this fall. But what ever will be, will be. There's no sense in getting worked up over it now that we've reached the ultimatum stage.

I'm still hoping that he'll get things figured out/turned around. But I'll be happy either way. A bowl season means we're potentially on our way to winning again. And another poor year means we'll have a new, more qualified coach leading the program next year. It's a win-win from my perspective.

Is it too soon to start our shopping list?

BUATX2000 said:

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Lots of good takes here regarding Aranda's organizational skills and leadership style. I think for most sane people, the shine has long since worn off the apple with respect to his quirkiness and philosophical approach to the game. It is also very clear that Baylor athletics in general was caught flat footed with respect to the monumental sea change that NIL and the portal represented.

It does feel like we have started to "figure it out" from an NIL / portal POV. Lots of quality dudes coming in and the outbound turnover has been acceptable.

I don't like Dave's style. I liked it when Baylor had an edge. Briles and Rhule both coached with a chip on their shoulders and cultivated a culture of winning and grit.

With Briles if we asked @what is the culture?" (Scandal **** aside) we would say, "winning, speed, high pressure, fast paced, tempo, vertical attack assassins who are going to hang 100 on you if you don't stop em"

With Rhule it was "tough, fast, gritty, high pressure, defensive attacking bad asses who will fight you to the last second, last inch of the last quarter"

With Dave it's "person over player" and therein lies the problem. Nowhere in his ethos is he concerned about things that matter to winning football games.

His culture is the problem.

---

Rhoades and overshown said in their latest interview for the athletic that they are now downplaying the person over player stuff. So really, we're in year five with no defined culture for the program. I still think the time to make a clean break with Aranda was last November/December and that this is just a let's see what happens year. But he seems like a nice dude, and I do hope the team can hit that 7+ win mark this season

Aliceinbubbleland said:

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Is it too soon to start our shopping list?

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My list begins and ends with Jeff Traylor. But I'd still rather Aranda succeed than not.

A very young team in '23 is a year older physically and emotionally. I think the portal improved us. Aranda's attention to D will greatly improve us. The new offense should produce more points.
I look to be pleasantly surprised about our record.

Waco1947 said:

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A very young team in '23 is a year older physically and emotionally. I think the portal improved us. Aranda's attention to D will greatly improve us. The new offense should produce more points.
I look to be pleasantly surprised about our record.

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I sincerely hope you're right. But we've reached the "Don't tell me, show me," stage. In fact, we're well past it, to be honest.

Agree re: Briles and Rhule both instilling a real identity and culture. And they were both fighters, just in different ways.

I think Aranda's lack of a defined identity/culture and his revolving door of coordinators are part and parcel of the same problem.

bear2be2 said:

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Waco1947 said:

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A very young team in '23 is a year older physically and emotionally. I think the portal improved us. Aranda's attention to D will greatly improve us. The new offense should produce more points.
I look to be pleasantly surprised about our record.

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I sincerely hope you're right. But we've reached the "Don't tell me, show me," stage. In fact, we're well past it, to be honest.

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Also true.

Daveisabovereproach said:

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BUATX2000 said:

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Lots of good takes here regarding Aranda's organizational skills and leadership style. I think for most sane people, the shine has long since worn off the apple with respect to his quirkiness and philosophical approach to the game. It is also very clear that Baylor athletics in general was caught flat footed with respect to the monumental sea change that NIL and the portal represented.

It does feel like we have started to "figure it out" from an NIL / portal POV. Lots of quality dudes coming in and the outbound turnover has been acceptable.

I don't like Dave's style. I liked it when Baylor had an edge. Briles and Rhule both coached with a chip on their shoulders and cultivated a culture of winning and grit.

With Briles if we asked @what is the culture?" (Scandal **** aside) we would say, "winning, speed, high pressure, fast paced, tempo, vertical attack assassins who are going to hang 100 on you if you don't stop em"

With Rhule it was "tough, fast, gritty, high pressure, defensive attacking bad asses who will fight you to the last second, last inch of the last quarter"

With Dave it's "person over player" and therein lies the problem. Nowhere in his ethos is he concerned about things that matter to winning football games.

His culture is the problem.

---

Rhoades and overshown said in their latest interview for the athletic that they are now downplaying the person over player stuff. So really, we're in year five with no defined culture for the program. I still think the time to make a clean break with Aranda was last November/December and that this is just a let's see what happens year. But he seems like a nice dude, and I do hope the team can hit that 7+ win mark this season

---

One item rarely talked about in firing Aranda after last year is the pool available - both in who Mack felt like would be there and also in who he felt like he could lure. I know Mack is lower than dirt among some here, but it's not always as easy as fire-and-improve, and given Traylor was not willing to budge after last season, the only guy in our strike zone hired last offseason that I'm even remotely bummed about not getting is Willie Fritz. Given that I (and probably Mack) am not at all excited about hiring another hot-thing coordinator, I'd be shocked if our next guy does not come from a HC role.

And who knows, if Aranda bombs this year, that might be the thing that lures Traylor out of San Antonio to Waco and we all praise the timing of it all. These things are impossible to adequately judge without hindsight.

Robert Wilson said:

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bear2be2 said:

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Bandito said:

---

monsterbear61 said:

---

I just read The Athletics article on Mack's rationale behind keeping Aranda. It sounds like the coach has a plan versus merely getting a stay of execution. Let's hope the plan really works. Ditching the 'person over player' philosophy in recruiting is significant. I think Briles must be chortling over that turnaround.

---

This guy's had more plans than Aflac. Most folks don't get 5 yrs of on the job training, multiple resets, and passing the buck to their underlings.

---

This is a completely fair point and why I was never particularly jazzed about hiring an outside coordinator.

I sincerely hope Aranda gets the ship righted this season. I'm pulling hard for him because I like what he stands for. But power conference program's should let first-time head coaches learn these lessons and do their experimenting at lower levels. The stakes are too high to spend five years waiting on your coach to figure out the most basic aspects of his job.

---

We are basically the CFB equivalent of a small market MLB team

---

AAA

Yep. The networks only want about 40 major league programs. Big12 didn't make the cut. CFP cannon fodder.

BUATX2000 said:

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Yep. The networks only want about 40 major league programs. Big12 didn't make the cut. CFP cannon fodder.

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This, although there is still a slim possibility that programs like Kansas, WVU or TCU/SMU could make the cut.

Aberzombie1892 said:

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BUATX2000 said:

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Yep. The networks only want about 40 major league programs. Big12 didn't make the cut. CFP cannon fodder.

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This, although there is still a slim possibility that programs like Kansas, WVU or TCU/SMU could make the cut.

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it's essentially now the fox North and west coast league vs the ESPN south and south east league. The remaining spots in those two leagues will be almost exclusively reserved for state schools with the exception of ND. The networks are trying to get out ahead of the cliff they are about to drop off with respect to carriage fees. But in reality, everything will eventually shift to streaming so the pressure to bundle strange bed fellows like Oregon and Ohio State will be reduced. The problem is you are never going to get all the toothpaste back in the tube. Highly unlikely to see a return to what was the perfect format of the perfect sport ever again.

it's already impacting programs, this drive to kill the golden egg laying goose. listen to jamie ...

"There's just no way possible to go forward and convince the state that we can take bonds out to pay for a wrestling facility when the College Football Playoff decided to take all the money and give it to the Big 10 and SEC."

Bold statement from Pollard regarding the decision to… pic.twitter.com/FXtYl6L0ry

— CycloneFanatic.com (@cyclonefanatic) May 10, 2024

monsterbear61 said:

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It sounds like the coach has a plan versus merely getting a stay of execution.

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As Mike Tyson famously said, "Everybody has a plan 'til they get punched in the mouth."

We'll see what happens when the games kick off. I like Aranda for all the reasons others have mentioned, just not convinced he has the skill set to be a D1 head coach.

If we do not make a bowl game, Aranda is gone.