Can we finally find the answer down in country roads?

With a win we get bowl eligibility with 2 games still remaining. I think it would also still keep us mathematically in the B12 race...but we would need Colo to lose 2 of their last 3 games to Utah, @KU, and OSU and then some other things too like multiple teams with 3 losses since we don't own a tiebreaker with Colo.

So that's all pretty unlikely...but we still have a lot to play for with a chance to get to 7-5 or 8-4.

I think we need Colorado to lose out to go 5-4..if we tie at 6-3 they have tiebreaker.

That's why we needed Tech to win yesterday.

Don't know how, but Baylor is favored by 1 1/2 now.

jsstewar said:

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Don't know how, but Baylor is favored by 1 1/2 now.

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Feels weird to say after the lows we have seen...but I think we are the better team...just not sure about getting it done in Morgantown. That place is cursed.

We've been the better team multiple times in Morgantown. Just hasn't mattered

Well, I don't think they had ever won in Waco until last year. Perhaps there is hope.

Tidbits...

With the exception of the 2014 squad that won 11 games but lost, the teams that we send to Morgantown are either down years or transitional years for us.

2016 - Grobes led team lost
2018 - Rhules 2nd season, still rebuilding from the BOI catastrophe. We got mudholed
2020 - Aranda's first season, Lost in 2 OT
2022 - Aranda's 3rd season, lost 40-43


Aside from our 2014 team, WVU is catching our best teams in Waco.

2013 - 11 Win season, pounded WVU
2015 - 10 win season, pounded WVU
2019 - 11 win season, won again. Statistically pounded them but 3 turnovers by us kept it close
2021 - 12 win season, pounded WVU


5 of the last 8 matchups with WVU have been decided by 3 points or less
One of those 8 games was decided by 6 points (a 2 OT loss for us)

The last 2 games in this matchup have been decided by 3 points each.

montypython said:

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Tidbits...

It seems like the teams that we send to Morgantown are either down years or transitional years for us.
2016 - Grobes led team lost
2018 - Rhules 2nd season, still rebuilding from the BOI catastrophe. We got mudholed
2020 - Aranda's first season, Lost in 2 OT
2022 - Aranda's 3rd season, lost 40-43


With the exception of the 2014 squad that won 11 games but lost in Morgantown, WVU is catching all of our best teams in Waco.

2013 - 11 Win season, pounded WVU
2015 - 10 win season, pounded WVU
2019 - 11 win season, won again. Statistically pounded them but 3 turnovers by us kept it close
2021 - 12 win season, pounded WVU


5 of the last 8 matchups with WVU have been decided by 3 points or less
One of those 8 games was decided by 6 points (a 2 OT loss for us)

The last 2 games in this matchup have been decided by 3 points each.

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Thanks for putting that perspective together. The drought in Morgantown makes a little more sense seeing it spelled out like that.

jsstewar said:

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Don't know how, but Baylor is favored by 1 1/2 now.

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I will match up each of the teams units.

WVU is 15th in the B12 in offensive passing yards per game
Baylor is 9th in the B12 in defensive passing yards allowed per game

WVU is 15th in the B12 in defensive passing yards allowed per game
Baylor is 9th in the B12 in offensive passing yards per game

WVU is 5th in the B12 if offensive rushing yards per game
Baylor is 7th in the B12 in defensive rushing yards allowed per game.

WVU is 4th in the B12 in defensive rushing yards allowed per game.
Baylor is 6th in the B12 in offensive rushing yards per game.

Being very simplistic stats, they have their limitation when trying to extrapolate that into future performance.

Another problem is that we should assume these stats include the OOC games and if they do, they can really skew the numbers.

Things to consider:

The best rushing team we have faced this year is Iowa St, and they trampled our run defense. ISU is #8 in the B12 in rushing yards per game.That means that our defense has not faced any of the top 6 rushing offenses in the B12 this season. WVU's rushing attack is easily the best we will see to date. They rush for more yards and yards per carry than all but 4 teams in the conference.


Outside of Utah, who we struggled against on the ground, our offense has yet to play anyone else in the top 6 in rushing defense. WVU is slightly better than Utah in rushing defensive yards per game and that's our next opponent.

We are going to have to abuse their secondary to win this game.

This is my worry. We have played mostly pass heavy teams. Our run defensive stats look ok but context is needed. WV is going to pound the rock. And Donaldson is a load at 240. WV is also good against the run. I hope we come out pass heavy. Because the few times I've watched WV they've been solid against the run but torched through the air.

Not bad we are getting some respect. IMO WV is the toughest road game in conference for us. Night game odds are bleak. How many are disappointed with Aranda's defense this year. I was expecting a whole lot more. Defense ranked 70 ish....I was expecting mid 30's.??

They do know the game is in Morgantown, where Baylor is 0-infinity, right?

Given the start we've had this year, it'll be a damn miracle once the curse of stupid hits.

Our safeties are the worst in the country.. but from what I understand our two best guys have been banged up the whole year. Hopefully they are relatively healthy for this home stretch and they can perform at even a mediocre level. If that happens, this team can easily win out. The last two should be must wins although KU is finally hitting their stride.

IowaBear said:

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This is my worry. We have played mostly pass heavy teams. Our run defensive stats look ok but context is needed. WV is going to pound the rock. And Donaldson is a load at 240. WV is also good against the run. I hope we come out pass heavy. Because the few times I've watched WV they've been solid against the run but torched through the air.

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That's exactly what the stats tell us. I'll add that WVU will be the best run defense we see this season.

We have somehow (almost) entirely skipped the B12's top rushing offenses and defenses so far. We don't even play UCF, KSU or ASU this year and they make up the bulk of the top offensive and defensive rushing units in the conference.

Top rushing teams YPG in the B12:
UCF, Kansas, KSU, ASU WVU then Baylor.

YPC:
UCF, KSU, Kansas, Baylor, WVU, UC, ASU.



Rushing defense YPG:
KSU, UCF, ASU, WVU, Utah, UH and Baylor. The only team we've played in that group is Utah.

Rushing defense YPC:
KSU, UCF, ASU, WVU, Baylor, CO, Utah, UH, Kansas

In other words, it should be a close game?

Yes our rushing numbers have certainly been aided by the fact that we've played some of the worst rushing defenses in the league the last 3 games. However, it is good news that we have averaged 100yds more than the opponents average rushing defense. Think we will need close to 200yds rushing to win.

Love Bryson Washington . He has given Baylor and edge we have not had all season . I have watched Baylor lose to West Virginia every year in Morgantown . If Baylor can pull this off this game will be historic !!

weezy said:

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Love Bryson Washington . He has given Baylor and edge we have not had all season . I have watched Baylor lose to West Virginia every year in Morgantown . If Baylor can pull this off this game will be historic !!

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Well...first we snapped the no P4 wins in McLane 2 year streak against OSU....then we snapped the TCU losing streak....why not add breaking the M-town streak

dave714 said:

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Not bad we are getting some respect. IMO WV is the toughest road game in conference for us. Night game odds are bleak. How many are disappointed with Aranda's defense this year. I was expecting a whole lot more. Defense ranked 70 ish....I was expecting mid 30's.??

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We were 116th in scoring defense and 113th in total defense last year.

And outside of the return of Jackie Marshall and the addition of four or five mostly middling transfers, we're putting the same personnel on the field we did a year ago.

It was never realistic IMO to expect us to go from where we were last year into the top 40 defensively. That said, I think it's fair to be disappointed that we haven't made more gains than we have.

We're still 85th in scoring defense and 74th in total defense, which ain't great. I suspect we'll look better the next two weeks against teams that struggle to throw the football, though.

jsstewar said:

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Don't know how, but Baylor is favored by 1 1/2 now.

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The bettors have been on our side since the Iowa State loss. The line has moved our way every week during this run, even the Tech game moved from Tech -8 to -4 going into the game.

EvilTroyAndAbed said:

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jsstewar said:

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Don't know how, but Baylor is favored by 1 1/2 now.

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The bettors have been on our side since the Iowa State loss. The line has moved our way every week during this run, even the Tech game moved from Tech -8 to -4 going into the game.

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And so far, they've been right. Let's hope that trend holds this week -- and the next two after that.

What if we sneak into Morgantown and burn all their couches BEFORE the game??

So far BU is 6-3-0 against the spread. So if you've bet them an equal unit size each game you are up for the year.

I haven't touched many of their games this year. I'm not messing with this one either. Feels like another B12 coin flip game to me.

Ok...bet the house on BU!

#Baylor HC Dave Aranda says Sawyer Robertson is 100% and this will be the healthiest the team has been all season. #SicEm

— Grayson Grundhoefer (@GrayGrundhoefer) November 11, 2024

let's gooooo

Line still moving...now BU -3

I've only felt strongly about one matchup and that was the isu game. Otherwise I haven't felt comfortable with most of our matchups this year and have laid off on most.

I don't get much of a feeling for this weeks game either, so I'll be laying off.

I'm expecting this one to go down to the wire also… Hopefully with the outcome in our favor

In its last two games against West Virginia, Baylor lost the game inside 1:00 to play.

In 2022, it was a 22-yard field goal with 0:33 remaining that gave WVU the 43-40 victory in Morgantown.

In 2023, it was a 29-yard passing TD with 0:23 that gave WVU the 34-31 victory in Waco.

— Colt Barber (@Colt_Barber) November 11, 2024

If Baylor plays well the Bears win against this WV team. I predict the w streak continues

Keep pushing that pile bears

HC Dave Aranda on the success of the ground game during the three-game winning streak💪👇

"We believe we can do this, and we’re going to out-physical you and out-run you."

For the first time since 2016, Baylor has rushed for over 250 yards in three consecutive games.#SicEm🐻 pic.twitter.com/hFyfvyf7D0

— Baylor Bears on SicEm365 (@SicEm365) November 12, 2024

I'd be interested in seeing the statistic of win percentage in games where one team had a bye week and the other didn't. On paper, it's obviously a significant advantage. I think that's the obvious big thing that is trending in our favor. And we played very well against Texas Tech after our previous BYE week

It seems that we had a season recently where we caught quite a number of teams coming off their bye week.

Daveisabovereproach said:

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I'd be interested in seeing the statistic of win percentage in games where one team had a bye week and the other didn't. On paper, it's obviously a significant advantage. I think that's the obvious big thing that is trending in our favor. And we played very well against Texas Tech after our previous BYE week

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Something clicked on offense after the first bye week. Hopefully something clicks in the defensive secondary after this bye week.