Baylor - SMU seems like a toss-up, 38-35 type game to me. No strong feeling on who comes out on top.

But the thing you have to understand about Baylor's offense is that if they face a defense who can't stop the run, they're going to score 45+. So, watch for that.

— Travis Roeder (@Travis_Roeder) September 4, 2025

Youre a clown said:

---

Maybe SMU is overrated. I would argue that they were keeping things very vanilla and probably treating it more like a warm-up game. I remember us looking not very good against Texas State in 2021 just as a for instance

---

SMU just played against bottom-of-the-FCS East Texas A&M Commerce. They just upgraded to the FCS four years ago, and their best season was their first season in the FCS where they went 5-6 with David Bailiff at the helm--who has been special assistant to Texas State since 2023 (the same year Texas State beat Baylor). That head coach left after that season and since then they've posted a whopping 1-9 and 3-9 at the FCS level.

Vanilla or not--SMU sure looked like they had some issues across the board. Are they Kansas State v North Dakota bad? No, definitely not. But let's just say they don't look like their ranking and certainly don't look like their CFP-bid from late last year, so don't crown them the automatic winner of this game before it's played.

SMU was up 42-3 in the 4th… why are you trying to get people to believe that game was competitive?

they were sloppy apparently though

I'm certainly not crowning them the automatic winner…. but I do think that there's a sense of confidence building based off the presumption that SMU should've won the game like 63 - 3 or whatever. But even looking at our past history where we've had good teams, we've had games against vastly inferior opponents that weren't massive blowouts simply because we were conserving strength or otherwise not pulling out all the stops. Were SMU's starters in for the whole game?

I listened to an interview from Lashlee a couple days back, and he absolutely was holding their offense back a bit.

And frankly, I'm not sure why we would all hope that SMU is overrated. I certainly don't want them to be overrated. But it would be just like Dave to beat a ranked team that then finishes with like a 7 - 6 record

dale 38
dale 37

- dale

d!

go bears!!

Realitybites said:

---

These predictions are just reality adjusting to the on field product we saw Saturday. Looking at the rest of the schedule, which game do you see remaining where you would feel comfortable guaranteeing a win besides Samford?

---

Oklahoma State, Cincinnati, UCF and Arizona.

None of those teams will be able to score with us. Houston won't either, but they've defended us well in the past, so that one could be tight.

Some of you guys don't realize how talented our offense is by Big 12 standards. We can still lose games because our defense is questionable until proven otherwise. But we'll simply outscore a lot of the teams on our conference schedule.

I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see us do it to SMU on Saturday.

IowaBear said:

---

They replaced 9 starters. They aren't missing 9 starters. Did you watch the Bu defense? They didn't exactly light the world on fire

---

Struggling against Auburn isn't quite the same as allowing over 350 yards to a program that was Division II less than five years ago.

We'll see this week. Both defenses have a lot to prove, and neither should be feeling great going into Saturday with the offenses they'll be facing.

Over 100 of those yards were late in the game against what one would assume were all backups. Perhaps that speaks to the lack of depth for SMU. But trying to spin that game as anything other than a beatdown is just ******ed.
No one's comparing Auburn to AM Commerce.

Not going to predict the score. I feel we will move the ball and score, but so will they. Same chronic challenge of can our "O" outscore them(?). Hopefully the answer is yes, and it would really be great to see us bounce back against a good team.

My main problem is this…we shouldn't need to outscore every one a week to week basis. Our HC is a so called defensive guru. Yet his defenses can't stop a wet fart. The amount of stress his crap defense puts on Sawyer & Co to score virtually every possession is what tends to lead to the turnovers. Maybe his defensive unit should try getting an occasional stop. Could do wonders for this squad

IowaBear said:

---

Over 100 of those yards were late in the game against what one would assume were all backups. Perhaps that speaks to the lack of depth for SMU. But trying to spin that game as anything other than a beatdown is just ******ed.
No one's comparing Auburn to AM Commerce.

---

If Baylor allows 350-plus yards to Samford, I will not be pleased with the defensive performance. And Samford is a better FCS team than East Texas A&M.

I'm not saying that SMU fans should be apoplectic about a blowout win in Week 1. But there were cracks in that defensive effort. And given that they replaced all but two defensive starters from last year's group, I would have real concerns about that unit's ability to match last year's performance.

I, personally, don't think they're going to be nearly as good defensively as they were in 2024. I felt that way before their opener and I feel more strongly about it after it.

SMU is not anywhere close to Auburn in talent. We should handle them even with an incompetent defense. Sawyer will throw for 400+.

IowaBear said:

---

My main problem is this…we shouldn't need to outscore every one a week to week basis. Our HC is a so called defensive guru. Yet his defenses can't stop a wet fart. The amount of stress his crap defense puts on Sawyer & Co to score virtually every possession is what tends to lead to the turnovers. Maybe his defensive unit should try getting an occasional stop. Could do wonders for this squad

---

I don't think anyone wants to be in this position. But it is what it is currently.

The 2011 Baylor team rode that formula to 10 wins and a top-15 ranking, so it can be done. But hopefully the defense will improve so we're not having to win a shootout every single week.

SMU as a whole isn't nearly as good as they were in 24. But they still have an offense built to put up monster numbers against the Bears Swiss cheese defense. Lashlee is a pretty damn good OC.
No one's comparing Auburn has an issue with Baylor's offense. These toss ups are going to come down to which teams defense can't get the critical stops. And Dave's defenses have shown time n time again they simply cannot make the stops when they matter most. The amount of stress the offense faces on a drive to drive basis is through the roof. And that again falls on Dave. The narrative that he's a good defensive mind needed to die years ago. I'll gladly come eat crow if BU wins but I expect another frustrating loss where Dave's defense again doesn't rise to the occasion.

CottonValley said:

---

SMU is not anywhere close to Auburn in talent. We should handle them even with an incompetent defense. Sawyer will throw for 400+.

---

I'm actually hoping that Sawyer throws for somewhere between 250 and 300 yards. Because that will likely mean we've gotten our running game going, which will make us even more difficult to stop.

If he throws for 400-plus, that likely means we've had to be more one-dimensional than we wanted to be against a team with comparable talent on the lines. That would be concerning after having our run game bottled up the way it was by Auburn.

IowaBear said:

---

SMU as a whole isn't nearly as good as they were in 24. But they still have an offense built to put up monster numbers against the Bears Swiss cheese defense. Lashlee is a pretty damn good OC.
No one's comparing Auburn has an issue with Baylor's offense. These toss ups are going to come down to which teams defense can't get the critical stops. And Dave's defenses have shown time n time again they simply cannot make the stops when they matter most. The amount of stress the offense faces on a drive to drive basis is through the roof. And that again falls on Dave. The narrative that he's a good defensive mind needed to die years ago. I'll gladly come eat crow if BU wins but I expect another frustrating loss where Dave's defense again doesn't rise to the occasion.

---

To be clear, I'm not bullish on this defense. I've said many times that I want to see an outside DC brought in next season and for Dave to assume more of a CEO role, a la Mack Brown.

But we only have one game to judge this group by, and we don't know how good the Auburn offense is yet.

We'll see how this Saturday goes. I'll have a much stronger opinion on our defense after that one than I do now. I hope we're able to outscore the Ponies regardless of how the defense plays. We need a win.

38-27 SMU, ceiling for this team is 6 wins and squeaking into a crappy bowl game.

Cove Dawg said:

---

38-27 SMU, ceiling for this team is 6 wins and squeaking into a crappy bowl game.

---

The bolded is a really silly statement given that we just won eight games last year with essentially this same roster.

If anything, we're more talented on offense this year and have more experience on both sides of the ball.

If you want to complain about this team's floor, that's fine. I'd probably agree with you. But this team's ceiling is still 10 wins and a Big 12 championship.

If I was betting, I'd say we likely finish between our floor and ceiling and go 8-4 again.

Cove Dawg said:

---

38-27 SMU, ceiling for this team is 6 wins and squeaking into a crappy bowl game.

---

you got something against shreveport??

PA.

- UL

... and, as always, TIA.

BID.

bear2be2 said:

---

Cove Dawg said:

---

38-27 SMU, ceiling for this team is 6 wins and squeaking into a crappy bowl game.

---

The bolded is a really silly statement given that we just won eight games last year with essentially this same roster.

If anything, we're more talented on offense this year and have more experience on both sides of the ball.

If you want to complain about this team's floor, that's fine. I'd probably agree with you. But this team's ceiling is still 10 wins and a Big 12 championship.

If I was betting, I'd say we likely finish between our floor and ceiling and go 8-4 again.

---

I've been a Debby Downer in the past myself, I admit.

But a lot of these folks have lost their minds before Week 2 even starts. It's wild

If we lose tomorrow, our realistic ceiling is not 10 wins, it's more like 7, maybe 8.

Expecting to win 10 games straight would be like driving to work and expecting to hit 10 green lights in a row. It happens for some people, but you're gonna need a massive amount of luck and be in the right place at the right time

Youre a clown said:

---

If we lose tomorrow, our realistic ceiling is not 10 wins, it's more like 7, maybe 8.

Expecting to win 10 games straight would be like driving to work and expecting to hit 10 green lights in a row. It happens for some people, but you're gonna need a massive amount of luck and be in the right place at the right time

---

If we lose tomorrow, we're not winning 10 games. I think that's obvious. But that doesn't mean that this team's ceiling wasn't 10 wins. It just means we won't reach our ceiling.

As badly as we were beat up front by Auburn, we still could have won that game if about three breaks go our way. Our team, at its ceiling, has an opportunity to win that game.

This is kind of a semantic argument, but I think this team's 12-game ceiling is 10 wins and it's 12-game floor (with the schedule we play) is probably five or six wins. I think we'll likely split the difference and finish 7-5 or 8-4, and so did Vegas, which is why our over/under was set at 7.5.

Baylor 48 - SMU 45

BamaPU said:

---

Baylor 48 - SMU 45

---

FIRE CDA

BUGWBBear said:

---

FIRE CDA

---

LOL smh

bear2be2 said:

---

Youre a clown said:

---

If we lose tomorrow, our realistic ceiling is not 10 wins, it's more like 7, maybe 8.

Expecting to win 10 games straight would be like driving to work and expecting to hit 10 green lights in a row. It happens for some people, but you're gonna need a massive amount of luck and be in the right place at the right time

---

If we lose tomorrow, we're not winning 10 games. I think that's obvious. But that doesn't mean that this team's ceiling wasn't 10 wins. It just means we won't reach our ceiling.

As badly as we were beat up front by Auburn, we still could have won that game if about three breaks go our way. Our team, at its ceiling, has an opportunity to win that game.

This is kind of a semantic argument, but I think this team's 12-game ceiling is 10 wins and it's 12-game floor (with the schedule we play) is probably five or six wins. I think we'll likely split the difference and finish 7-5 or 8-4, and so did Vegas, which is why our over/under was set at 7.5.

---

Great way to evaluate this team's potential. Spot on.