Gameday Thread: Baylor (4-3) travels to face #13 West Virginia (5-1)

BAYLOR (4-3) at WEST VIRGINIA (5-1)

Milan Puskar Stadium| 6:00 p.m CT | FS1

Depth Chart | Schedule | Big 12 Standings | Roster | Staff | Key Players

Storylines of the Week

Compete, Compete, Compete

Last year the Bears lost all of their road games by double digits except for a game against Kansas, a game they won by double digits. In 2018 the Oklahoma game snowballed on the Bears, but the Texas game was extremely close through the final seconds. A contest against West Virginia is another opportunity for the Bears to keep a big time road game close and give themselves a chance to get a big victory in the final quarter. The key will be competing from start to finish against one of the top teams in the league. The Bears cannot get down big early like their 2017 matchup in Waco and they have to move the ball well enough to not only score points but also to keep the ball out of Will Grier’s hands. They cannot be careless with football nor can they give up a ton of explosive plays. Baylor has to stick with the gameplan and stick to their assignments. If they can get close to doing all of these things they can win this game but if not it will be the same result they have seen in many of their tough road games the past two years and it could result in a blowout.

It’s third down!

This will be one of the biggest stats to watch throughout the game Thursday evening. Baylor has done a tremendous job at converting third downs this season with a 48-percent conversion rate, good enough to be ranked 14th in the nation. Even more impressive than that is that they are 25-for-51 on third-down conversions on the road against UTSA, OU and Texas. West Virginia has also been outstanding on third down as they are ranked seventh with a 50-percent conversion rate. They are 21-for-35 at home but against the likes of Youngstown State, Kansas State and Kansas, so not exactly the stiffest competition. They are coming off of a 2-for-10 performance at Iowa State which was by far the worst of the season for the Mountaineers, but the road atmosphere will not be an issue at home.

On the flip side both have not been great at preventing third downs on defense, though West Virginia has been significantly better than Baylor. The Mountaineers are ranked 43rd in third-down conversion defense allowing a conversion 36 percent of the time. The Bears rank 109th in the country giving up a conversion 44 percent of the time. Baylor will need to be quite a bit better than this to beat West Virginia on the road. Keep an eye on this stat throughout the game because there is a good chance that it will predict the winner.

Quote of the Week

“We are going to play three ranked teams this year. All three we will play on the road. Going into Morgantown on a Thursday night will be raucous. We better have the mentality where we can eliminate distractions and focus on the game and just take it one play at a time. West Virginia will make some big plays and we want to limit those big plays. Last year it was a 10-10 game with a minute and a half left before halftime and we let them score.  We came out in the second half and they scored quick, so it went from 10-10 to 24-10 really quick. We mounted a comeback at the end. But we can’t panic. These guys will make explosive plays we just need to limit those 60 yard plays to 20 yard plays. We can only control one play at a time.” — Matt Rhule

Statistic of the Week

Against West Virginia in 2017, then freshman Charlie Brewer led a Baylor comeback that fell just short against the Mountaineers as a two-point conversion couldn't be converted two tie the game with 17 seconds remaining. 

Brewer entered the game at the end of the third quarter for starter Zach Smith and picked up a first down on his first play from scrimmage. Two plays into the fourth quarter, the Bears scored seven of their 23 points in the final session when Brewer found running back Trestan Ebner on a wheel route up the sideline.

Brewer completed 8-of-13 passes for 109 yards and two touchdowns and rushed 10 times for 48 yards in a little over a quarter as the Bears closed the 38-13 WVU lead to 38-36 in the final moments. Brewer was then sacked on the conversion attempt and the comeback could not be completed.

Players to Watch

Jim Black BJ Thompson WVU has shown they can issues slowing down pass rushers in their last three games while Baylor hasn't had a great opportunity to get after the passer this season. BJ Thompson's athletic ability needs to be a factor on Thursday in Morgantown.

Jim Black Charlie Brewer Charlie Brewer had the first signficant playing time of his career against WVU in Waco a season ago as a true freshmen. Brewer led the Bears to 23 fourth-quarter points and will need to have similar success if the Bears want a shot at an upset in 2018.

Jim Black Blake Lynch The former wide receiver finally seems to have a home at the SAM linebacker position in Baylor's defense after a terrific performance against Texas two weeks ago. Lynch will need to hold up well in coverage and against the run again against WVU.