Nothing really new here but these articles always start interesting discussions/debates and speculation. His ideal scenario at the end would not be good for Baylor. It's going to get heated in the next year or two though and the speculation of a few of the Power 5 commissioners retiring will also make things interesting.
Mandel's Mailbag
Hey Stewart: How far are we from another round of major conference realignment and what could it look like?
If there's another big round of shuffling, it will likely come somewhere in the 2023-26 range.
Several major TV contracts will come up for bid in short succession, starting with the Big Ten (2023), followed by the Pac-12 (2024), Big 12 (2025) and, perhaps most significantly, the College Football Playoff (2025). Don't think it's a coincidence that the Big Ten opted for shorter-than-usual six-year deals with ESPN and FOX in its last round of negotiations. Or that the Pac-12 recently turned down a tempting offer from ESPN to take over distribution for the long-struggling Pac-12 Networks that would have locked in its Tier 1 rights "well into the 2030s."
Most people in the business believe there could be some sort of major shakeup around the time of that aforementioned window. But nobody has any idea what that might be, in large part because the TV rights climate is changing so rapidly.
Remember, one of if not the driving factor behind the massive shuffling of 2010-12 was the chase for cable households. With the advent of cord-cutters and streaming services, will that even be a relevant factor in 2026? And who will be the players bidding on contracts by then? ESPN and FOX aren't going anywhere, but will any or all of Netflix, Amazon, Google (YouTube) or Hulu join in by then?
Three years ago, I theorized that the next wave of realignment won't be along traditional conference lines at all. Rather, it will involve the 25 or so most prestigious college football programs forming their own autonomous confederation a la the Champions League in soccer in which they exclusively play each other and feed directly into an expanded CFP. The idea being to create the most valuable possible content rather than worrying about cable footprints. Ohio State playing all of its games against USC, Texas, Alabama, Michigan, etc., would make for far more attractive content than its continuing to play half its schedule against Tulane, Maryland, Rutgers, etc.
It may be that's still too far away and fantastical. There would be a whole lot of logistical questions, like whether they could do that while still maintaining NCAA and conference membership in their other sports. Also, ESPN has wisely locked in its deals with the SEC and ACC until well into the 2030s, so it may be this upcoming window isn't feasible.
But as I indicated both in that article and up above, don't underestimate the ramifications of the next CFP contract. We're only halfway into the current one, but two things are already evident: 1) The Playoff is well on its way to dwarfing all other aspects of the sport and 2) realistically, only a finite number of schools will ever reach the thing. So it would make sense at some point for that pool of powerhouses to align themselves more closely with each other.
(Note: This is not our last realignment-related question this week. Stay tuned.)
Mandel's Mailbag
Hey Stewart: How far are we from another round of major conference realignment and what could it look like?
If there's another big round of shuffling, it will likely come somewhere in the 2023-26 range.
Several major TV contracts will come up for bid in short succession, starting with the Big Ten (2023), followed by the Pac-12 (2024), Big 12 (2025) and, perhaps most significantly, the College Football Playoff (2025). Don't think it's a coincidence that the Big Ten opted for shorter-than-usual six-year deals with ESPN and FOX in its last round of negotiations. Or that the Pac-12 recently turned down a tempting offer from ESPN to take over distribution for the long-struggling Pac-12 Networks that would have locked in its Tier 1 rights "well into the 2030s."
Most people in the business believe there could be some sort of major shakeup around the time of that aforementioned window. But nobody has any idea what that might be, in large part because the TV rights climate is changing so rapidly.
Remember, one of if not the driving factor behind the massive shuffling of 2010-12 was the chase for cable households. With the advent of cord-cutters and streaming services, will that even be a relevant factor in 2026? And who will be the players bidding on contracts by then? ESPN and FOX aren't going anywhere, but will any or all of Netflix, Amazon, Google (YouTube) or Hulu join in by then?
Three years ago, I theorized that the next wave of realignment won't be along traditional conference lines at all. Rather, it will involve the 25 or so most prestigious college football programs forming their own autonomous confederation a la the Champions League in soccer in which they exclusively play each other and feed directly into an expanded CFP. The idea being to create the most valuable possible content rather than worrying about cable footprints. Ohio State playing all of its games against USC, Texas, Alabama, Michigan, etc., would make for far more attractive content than its continuing to play half its schedule against Tulane, Maryland, Rutgers, etc.
It may be that's still too far away and fantastical. There would be a whole lot of logistical questions, like whether they could do that while still maintaining NCAA and conference membership in their other sports. Also, ESPN has wisely locked in its deals with the SEC and ACC until well into the 2030s, so it may be this upcoming window isn't feasible.
But as I indicated both in that article and up above, don't underestimate the ramifications of the next CFP contract. We're only halfway into the current one, but two things are already evident: 1) The Playoff is well on its way to dwarfing all other aspects of the sport and 2) realistically, only a finite number of schools will ever reach the thing. So it would make sense at some point for that pool of powerhouses to align themselves more closely with each other.
(Note: This is not our last realignment-related question this week. Stay tuned.)