The Big XII won't expand until 2022 or 2023, and probably not even then.
Right now, our media partners would have to agree to add money to our conference, so that members do not get a smaller amount than their current distributions. Fox and ESPN are out of money, and over extended. No chance they add more money to the pie. So there is no way that the conference members agree to take less money so we can add some G5 or independent members. The money is just not there to add more members.
So that means we have to wait until the current contracts expire. But when that happens, it is very possible that our smaller size will be a bonus during negotiations. Our schools can be happy with almost as much per school as the SEC or Big10, but the contract amount is smaller overall. This could be a great setup for one of the new media companies like Netflix, Google or CBS sports streaming. The Big XII offers excellent year round content, and with only 10 schools, there is less travel & production costs. But we have top quality football, basketball, WBB, baseball, etc. I seriously doubt that any of the media companies are going to want us to add Memphis or Cincy or USF or Navy or anyone else. There just isn't a benefit there. The only thing I could see them wanting is to get rid of WVU, as it extends the costs without adding... anything. So maybe there is media pressure to replace WVU with something closer to home, or in a better media market like maybe ASU in Phoenix or SMU in Dallas. The last round of expansion talk made it clear that the conference doesn't want to add another Texas team, and I totally agree with that....unless it is A&M. I know, I know... we all hate the Aggies... but they do bring a HUGE fanbase and you can't deny that A&M would be an all around better program than WVU. Of course, there is just no way that A&M would return, so let's leave it alone.
Memphis is not a compelling program, nor a big enough market for the effort. Same for Cincy. Reality is that there isn't a G5 program which has a good combo of programs, fanbase and media market. So we would have to grab a P5 school, which leaves the PAC12 teams and ACC teams. No one is leaving the SEC or the Big10, so don't even start with that crap. Anyone who would consider leaving is totally undesirable to our media partners (who really watches Nebraska, Arky or Mizzou anyway). CU is a compelling idea, but the AZ schools are the obvious choice from the PAC12. In my opinion, ASU (Phoenix > Tucson by a mile) is the one to grab, especially if we could somehow get rid of WVU and replace with ASU. From the ACC... yuck. FSU has fanbase, market and the potential for good programs... but... their history of scandals makes them a bit risky. Georgia Tech has the market, and some fanbase, but lacks the programs (beyond football). Clemson has no reason to leave, but maybe that could change in the next few years... doubt it. The ACC would have to have serious money issues for Clemson to leave their cushy position... serious money issues.
So I think the Big XII will sign with Google/YouTube for 10 years at $3 billion, while remaining at 10 teams. Maybe we get lucky and trade WVU for Georgia Tech or FSU or ASU, but that is highly unlikely.
Of course, all of this will look very different if the Whorns go crazy and decide to make a run as an independent. I give that a 50/50 chance of happening if they can win the conference between now and 2024. If they win a natty before 2023, then I give it an 80% chance that the University of Austin will go indy.
