Expectations for Baylor football

4,626 Views | 90 Replies | Last: 1 mo ago by Oldgrizzly
Robert Wilson
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Ewalker80 said:

Ghostrider said:

Honest question....why do we feel our defense is going to be so good? Do we see a lot of improvement in the returning players? I know we have 1-2 transfers that we hope will add a lot of firepower. Is the D so dominant we expect them to win us some games on their own? I'm not saying the D won't be that good, just looking for some reasons why we are so hopeful. I'd love it if it happens!
(1) at times the defense was very good last year, despite having to compensate for a D2 offense; the OU game is a prime example where we held them to lowest yard total in years even though our offense could barely get a first down; despite installing a new defense during covid
(2) we're getting everyone back, including a healthy Terrell Bernard, Gabe Hall. Texada is in his 10th year with the program.
(3) we added a big-time transfer in Siaki Ika that finally let's them play they way they want up front.
(4) The Aranda/Roberts track records. Aranda considered one of top defensive minds in the country
(5) we're fans. We have to hope for something or this whole thing isn't any fun.
Good summary. I feel really good about the D.

The offense, on the other hand...
Bear8084
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Ewalker80 said:

Ghostrider said:

Honest question....why do we feel our defense is going to be so good? Do we see a lot of improvement in the returning players? I know we have 1-2 transfers that we hope will add a lot of firepower. Is the D so dominant we expect them to win us some games on their own? I'm not saying the D won't be that good, just looking for some reasons why we are so hopeful. I'd love it if it happens!
(1) at times the defense was very good last year, despite having to compensate for a D2 offense; the OU game is a prime example where we held them to lowest yard total in years even though our offense could barely get a first down; despite installing a new defense during covid
(2) we're getting everyone back, including a healthy Terrell Bernard, Gabe Hall. Texada is in his 10th year with the program.
(3) we added a big-time transfer in Siaki Ika that finally let's them play they way they want up front.
(4) The Aranda/Roberts track records. Aranda considered one of top defensive minds in the country
(5) we're fans. We have to hope for something or this whole thing isn't any fun.



Pretty good summary. No one is saying it is Alabama's defense, but most recognize it will be a very good one.

The offense, thankfully, is getting a full set of practices to help with the install. But there will be growing pains as an offensive install may take a season or two to get fully going. I think there will be improvements on the offensive side of the ball for sure, but there will have to be patience.
Ghostrider
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Ewalker80 said:

Ghostrider said:

Honest question....why do we feel our defense is going to be so good? Do we see a lot of improvement in the returning players? I know we have 1-2 transfers that we hope will add a lot of firepower. Is the D so dominant we expect them to win us some games on their own? I'm not saying the D won't be that good, just looking for some reasons why we are so hopeful. I'd love it if it happens!
(1) at times the defense was very good last year, despite having to compensate for a D2 offense; the OU game is a prime example where we held them to lowest yard total in years even though our offense could barely get a first down; despite installing a new defense during covid
(2) we're getting everyone back, including a healthy Terrell Bernard, Gabe Hall. Texada is in his 10th year with the program.
(3) we added a big-time transfer in Siaki Ika that finally let's them play they way they want up front.
(4) The Aranda/Roberts track records. Aranda considered one of top defensive minds in the country
(5) we're fans. We have to hope for something or this whole thing isn't any fun.

Thanks...all makes sense to me and I agree....didn't know all that so exciting to hear!
Squatch Hunter
How long do you want to ignore this user?
We will have a good D and if they can generate turnovers and our kicking game (FG) improves we go bowling.
DanaDane
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Mr Tulip
How long do you want to ignore this user?
To me, these are the great unknowns right now.

The OL did not have a chance to be born last season. The offseason is the only time when an OL can learn a new technique, since game weeks are busy installing the offense. The coach can't just call the line into a huddle and say, "Hey guys, try this!" and have it polished enough to deploy in a game. The OL is five players at a time performing as one. A coach can grow players and correct individual technique during the season, but can't start new projects. Baylor was robbed of that time (like a lot of schools) last year. I have no idea what I'm about to get.

The QBs absolutely MUST solve the turnover dilemma! One throws picks because he's not totally sure where the correct read is. The other is SO sure of his correct read that he stares it down the entire time. Both QBs have substantial tools in their bag, and could lead capably. As has been mentioned previous, Baylor will still look to win with defense. Punting is acceptable. Turnovers are not.

Last year was so screwed up that it's tough to even assess the level of competition. I'll try and enjoy the summer while I wait.
Aberzombie1892
How long do you want to ignore this user?
DanaDane said:


This seems about right. Tech may be too low though.
chriscbear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
UT not second best team in Big 12. I know its betting odds and public perception
Ewalker80
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Aberzombie1892 said:

DanaDane said:


This seems about right. Tech may be too low though.


I thought tech was easily second worst team in conference last year and would bet on Baylor ahead of them. But I agree the key games for Baylor are against texh and the teams projected right above us. K st. Wva. Ok st. Also Texas at home.
BayouCity
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Is there a way to take a short position on UT? We'd all be millionaires.
Robert Wilson
How long do you want to ignore this user?
chriscbear said:

UT not second best team in Big 12. I know its betting odds and public perception


Isu should be in front of Texas. Tech should be higher, not that it matters.
Aberzombie1892
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Ewalker80 said:

Aberzombie1892 said:

DanaDane said:


This seems about right. Tech may be too low though.


I thought tech was easily second worst team in conference last year and would bet on Baylor ahead of them. But I agree the key games for Baylor are against texh and the teams projected right above us. K st. Wva. Ok st. Also Texas at home.
The difference for Tech is that they signed the QB that won the PAC12 in 2020 away from Oregon, and he will undoubtedly be starting for them in 2021 and combining him with Cumbie has the potential to develop him further than Oregon did. If Baylor had picked up that QB instead of Tech, then Baylor would be deserving of the middle/upper middle tier since Baylor's defense should be solid.

There is a reason that ESPN's preseason FPI has Tech in its top 25, and it's not because of Big 12 bias.
sicemdude839
How long do you want to ignore this user?
4-8
Ewalker80
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Aberzombie1892 said:

Ewalker80 said:

Aberzombie1892 said:

DanaDane said:


This seems about right. Tech may be too low though.


I thought tech was easily second worst team in conference last year and would bet on Baylor ahead of them. But I agree the key games for Baylor are against texh and the teams projected right above us. K st. Wva. Ok st. Also Texas at home.
The difference for Tech is that they signed the QB that won the PAC12 in 2020 away from Oregon, and he will undoubtedly be starting for them in 2021 and combining him with Cumbie has the potential to develop him further than Oregon did. If Baylor had picked up that QB instead of Tech, then Baylor would be deserving of the middle/upper middle tier since Baylor's defense should be solid.

There is a reason that ESPN's preseason FPI has Tech in its top 25, and it's not because of Big 12 bias.


I'm not an expert on fpi but I don't know how it could weight the Oregon transfer when tech hasn't named him as the starter? He transferred because he was losing a lot of playing time down the stretch, during which time neither he nor the team was playing well, and was benched again during the bowl game. He is a big pocket passer but given tech's overall lack of offensive talent I'm not sure he changes their overall projection. Maybe he comes in and lights the world on fire but I doubt he is more than a slight upgrade over bowman, who also had a pretty good arm. I still think Baylor is the superior team but in any case I see tech as a must win game for Baylor.
Ghostrider
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Mr Tulip said:

To me, these are the great unknowns right now.

The OL did not have a chance to be born last season. The offseason is the only time when an OL can learn a new technique, since game weeks are busy installing the offense. The coach can't just call the line into a huddle and say, "Hey guys, try this!" and have it polished enough to deploy in a game. The OL is five players at a time performing as one. A coach can grow players and correct individual technique during the season, but can't start new projects. Baylor was robbed of that time (like a lot of schools) last year. I have no idea what I'm about to get.

The QBs absolutely MUST solve the turnover dilemma! One throws picks because he's not totally sure where the correct read is. The other is SO sure of his correct read that he stares it down the entire time. Both QBs have substantial tools in their bag, and could lead capably. As has been mentioned previous, Baylor will still look to win with defense. Punting is acceptable. Turnovers are not.

Last year was so screwed up that it's tough to even assess the level of competition. I'll try and enjoy the summer while I wait.

I believe Aranda is still a great unknown. I have high hopes in him, but this is his first time at being a head coach so I am sure there will be some ups and downs....
Aberzombie1892
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Ewalker80 said:

Aberzombie1892 said:

Ewalker80 said:

Aberzombie1892 said:

DanaDane said:


This seems about right. Tech may be too low though.


I thought tech was easily second worst team in conference last year and would bet on Baylor ahead of them. But I agree the key games for Baylor are against texh and the teams projected right above us. K st. Wva. Ok st. Also Texas at home.
The difference for Tech is that they signed the QB that won the PAC12 in 2020 away from Oregon, and he will undoubtedly be starting for them in 2021 and combining him with Cumbie has the potential to develop him further than Oregon did. If Baylor had picked up that QB instead of Tech, then Baylor would be deserving of the middle/upper middle tier since Baylor's defense should be solid.

There is a reason that ESPN's preseason FPI has Tech in its top 25, and it's not because of Big 12 bias.


I'm not an expert on fpi but I don't know how it could weight the Oregon transfer when tech hasn't named him as the starter? He transferred because he was losing a lot of playing time down the stretch, during which time neither he nor the team was playing well, and was benched again during the bowl game. He is a big pocket passer but given tech's overall lack of offensive talent I'm not sure he changes their overall projection. Maybe he comes in and lights the world on fire but I doubt he is more than a slight upgrade over bowman, who also had a pretty good arm. I still think Baylor is the superior team but in any case I see tech as a must win game for Baylor.
In regard to his time at Oregon, Oregon attempted 191 pass attempts in 2020, and he was responsible for 167 of them. It's true that he was replaced in part of the bowl game, but (1) he did definitively win the PAC12 with no qualification, (2) he was rated #15 overall QB in the 2020 college passing efficiency rating, and (3) if we ignore the conference contracts with Bowls and the CFP, that Oregon team had no business playing that ISU team (i.e. with weeks of a prep, there are only a handful of teams that could have beaten that ISU team at that point in the season). Considering how many QBs above him have moved on to the NFL/graduation and the level of competition he is expected to face in the Big 12 in 2021, increased growth for him could easily result in him going in the first round of the 2022 draft (and there are some mainstream projections that are expecting that for him).

Beyond him, there are other positive variables for Tech. Of those, one of the biggest ones is the 10 super seniors for them in 2021 - players who would have had to move on but for the additional year of eligibility due to covid. That number of super seniors leads the Big 12. Yes, 2022 Tech may fall off a cliff because of that, but Wells just needs to survive 2021 before worrying about the following season.

Essentially, ESPN pegs Tech at about 7 regular season wins, which seems about right with that QB, the super seniors, Cumbie, and a few other aspects of their team. They may even win 8 or they may only win 6, but they have the pieces to be in that 6-8 win range for the regular season and that would essentially mean that they are fielding their best team since 2015.
McCavebear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
DanaDane said:


So, there is a chance?!!!!
McCavebear Lives!
McCavebear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
We should have a good defense at Baylor this year. I am saying a lower bowl with a bowl win.. That will mean the rebuild is progressing.
McCavebear Lives!
TellMeYouLoveMe
How long do you want to ignore this user?
How can I short Texas ...hmmm

but I sure as hell know plenty of them and I talk to them a lot, including during the search. And NOTHING was leaked.
Positive Bear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
This is really year one if you think about it. Defense should be solid as they were most of last season. Sadly they were paired with a horrible offense. If you think about it, the way we played against Iowa st and OU, even with an average offense our bears would of beaten them. Look forward to progress for the offense this upcoming season.
Oldgrizzly
How long do you want to ignore this user?
With COVID-19 wrecking havoc for a new head coach who had never been a head coach and dysfunction in the coaching staff, it is not surprising how poorly we did last year. Very impressed with hires this year. Not sure if the OL is coachable. If they are, I believe we will surprise a lot of people this year.
 
×
subscribe Verify your student status
See Subscription Benefits
Trial only available to users who have never subscribed or participated in a previous trial.